Texas Fall 2017

[Ralph's Weather]

We look to be in for a mild first half of November. The saving grace is that cold and snow are building over Western Canada and into the Plains. All we need is a -EPO to take advantage, I won't be holding my breath until we near TDay though.

[CaptinCrunch]

We look to be in for a mild first half of November. The saving grace is that cold and snow are building over Western Canada and into the Plains. All we need is a -EPO to take advantage, I won't be holding my breath until we near TDay though.

Yes, the Arctic Ice pack and snow cover on both side of the circle are allot further ahead this year compared to last year, and current coverage rivals 2013.

[CaptinCrunch]

[Ralph's Weather]

We look to be in for a mild first half of November. The saving grace is that cold and snow are building over Western Canada and into the Plains. All we need is a -EPO to take advantage, I won't be holding my breath until we near TDay though.

Yes, the Arctic Ice pack and snow cover on both side of the circle are allot further ahead this year compared to last year, and current coverage rivals 2013.

It sucks right now, but we have to remember that we still have a month left of fall. Our real cold comes from -30 to -40 type air builds over Alaska and Yukon and that takes time.

[CaptinCrunch]

One of my friends up in Lamont, Oklahoma just post on FB a pic of lite snow falling.....

[Ralph's Weather]

NWS Shreveport does not have me getting above 83 over the next week so mild but nothing crazy (thank you clouds and rain chances). Records are generally in the mid 80s every day of November here (ranging from 80-88 historically at Tyler).

[bubba hotep]

It looks like both the daily and monthly record high for DFW will be smashed on Thursday. We could see the record get beat by 5 or 6 degrees! Ugly

[Tejas89]

Will also be the first recorded 90+ day in Nov.

[Ralph's Weather]

Will also be the first recorded 90+ day in Nov.

Crazy how much warmer it looks to be in N Tx than 80 miles east. Low 80s forecasted here.

[Lagreeneyes03]

We look to be in for a mild first half of November. The saving grace is that cold and snow are building over Western Canada and into the Plains. All we need is a -EPO to take advantage, I won't be holding my breath until we near TDay though.

Will we actually get any of that though, or by the time it reaches us (NTX) the dreaded "COLD RAIN"? I'm good with the 80's and 90's this week through the weekend. It's race weekend at TMS and looks to be the warmest fall race weekend on record. Gonna be one heck of a party out there as a result.

[Brent]

Didn't even rain much here today hot and dry is never far away

DFW recorded a whopping 0.04"

Funny how were going to set all time highs Thursday bet well never set all time lows..

[CaptinCrunch]

For November to never have had a 90 day is odd, we've hit 90 in December and February.... Lol

Thursdays high is forecast to be 91, the record is 89.

[Ntxw]

HAPPY HALLOWEEN gang! Enjoying this cool holiday (rare these days) for once. Soaking it all up before the warmth kicks in.

It can hit 90 or whatever it wants as long as it is cold and snowy from Thanksgiving to Christmas. Having to use the AC in November just sucks but hey it's the norm around here these days.

[Ntxw]

It is now in the books. October at DFW was 2.1F above normal, not a top 10 but warm nonetheless. Rainfall was 2.12" or a little over 2" below normal.

Now for Halloween 60/48 was the official count as we await CapnCrunch's post for that info!

[Ralph's Weather]

We dropped to around 50 late yesterday afternoon and we vot s decent amount of rain in multiple rounds. Still getting drizzle, but once it clears then the warmup will commence.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Hard to believe that its forecasted to be 81 this afternoon with it currently 44.

[weatherdude1108]

The silver lining is that I got almost a half inch of rain yesterday at my house.

But UGH. This does not look promising. The La Nina stepchild is rearing her ugly head, even though she's small.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
612 AM CDT Wed Nov 1 2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT Wed Nov 1 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
Isolated to scattered shower activity associated with SW-NE oriented
isentropic ascent and a midlevel shortwave has pushed east of the
Interstate 35 corridor tonight. Showers are expected to decrease
further in coverage over the next few hours as they push east of the
Highway 77 corridor by sunrise. Patchy fog has developed in portions
of the Hill Country and the I-35 corridor between San Antonio and
Austin where a nearly saturated surface layer is interacting with
calm winds. Warm air advection is also beginning to move in from the
west to help reinforce these saturated near-surface conditions, so
our current forecast continues patchy fog until just after sunrise.
Low clouds will give way to clearing skies later this morning,
allowing temperatures to warm up nicely today given southwest flow
and weak subsidence aloft this afternoon. High temperatures this
afternoon will depend on how quickly low clouds lift this morning
and how much temperatures increase in the 850-925 mb levels due to
increasing warm air advection aloft. Considering aircraft soundings
showed temperatures were already in the 13-14 deg C range along the
I-35 corridor a few hours ago, highs in the lower 80s would easily be
supported without additional warm air advection. We have stuck with
these more conservative values for now as saturated soils may help
curtail temperatures along and east of I-35, but the day shift may
need to increase temperatures further if skies clear quickly this
morning and significant warm air advection occurs by mid-morning.

Low clouds and possibly some patchy fog should develop as winds
become more southerly with model streamlines showing a nice onshore
fetch of low-level moisture. This should keep low temperatures up
in the lower to mid 60s where low clouds develop, while areas further
west dip down into the mid to upper 50s where clearer skies persist.
Southwest flow aloft will persist on Thursday as a surface trough/
dryline feature pushes into the western Hill Country to bring drier
air into the region. High temperatures should easily warm up into the
upper 80s across most of the region, challenging high temperature
records at Austin and San Antonio of 88 degrees. In addition, 850 mb
temperatures around 20 deg C mixing down to the surface may support
lower 90s behind the dryline/surface trough. These temperatures
combined with decreasing dew points should support an elevated fire
weather threat over the western Hill Country and Edwards Plateau
regions that did not get much rain on Tuesday and relative humidity
values should decrease to the 20-25 percent range. However, winds
should remain below 10-15 mph to help mitigate this threat.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
Another lee shortwave should move through north Texas and Oklahoma on
Friday morning before moving into Arkansas and Louisiana by mid-
afternoon. This feature may help trigger some isolated showers and
thunderstorms over our eastern counties, but its current timing
better supports this convection developing over east Texas where the
timing of the shortwave will be coincident with daytime heating. The
GFS and ECMWF ensembles both show a strong ridge of high pressure
building northward this weekend into Texas and expanding over the
North American subtropics for the first half of next week. This will
allow high temperatures to approach daily records generally in the
upper 80s through at least early next week, but for now our forecast
generally keeps highs a few degrees lower in the mid 80s. Lows will
continue to stay in the 60s as low clouds generally continue to
develop overnight before lifting by mid-to-late morning. Our next
weak front appears to move through the region just beyond the
forecast period next Wednesday, but this front will be dry. CPC is
forecasting above normal temperatures to continue well past next
weekend which matches a rebuilding subtropical ridge and associated
model ensembles. Regardless of whether or not we will end up having
an official La Nina this fall, our weather pattern will be matching
her common characteristics for at least these next few weeks.

[Brent]

Warm and dry October...probably a preview of the months to come.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Warm and dry October...probably a preview of the months to come.

That seems to be the safe bet with the last few years. Forecast warm and dry in Texas and 8/10 times you will probably be right.

[Brent]

Warm and dry October...probably a preview of the months to come.

That seems to be the safe bet with the last few years. Forecast warm and dry in Texas and 8/10 times you will probably be right.

Sadly.

Years like 09/10 and other snowy years are exceptions not the rule around here. There's a reason there's only a handful of truly good winters in 100 years.

sometimes I have a hard time believing it's ever snowed a foot here anyway... ther'es been many many more years in a row where it doesn't really snow at all.