STORM2K

Per usual, congrats to our DFW/NTX guys. Houston and East TX will get even more tonight. Glad someone is getting it.

I’m done trusting any 3-5 day forecasts down here- I think the global models really struggle with lack of sufficient upper air data in the eastern Mexican highlands, something that must play a large role in our rainfall totals and weather.

We’ve got some nice drizzle on tap though.

gpsnowman wrote:

WacoWx wrote:We have an outdoor party to attend at 4:00

Ummmm I have some news for you......

Oh no, it’s happening. Let’s hope my golf gear is actually waterproof.

Love Field is making a run at 4" and has also broken the daily record.

Massive disappointment in the rain department today with almost all of it being south of here


Parts of OK are now starting to enter a drought, which is not great considering we're about to move into summer pretty soon. I'm also noticing the increasing drought over the EML source region which makes me wonder if some of these potential severe weather setups in about a week or so could end up having capping issues. Not super impressed with 4/25 right now (Day 6 15%) but 4/26-29 could be a little more interesting IMO. Something to watch but I'm not concerned yet

Power still out because Oncor can't come out and restore it with new storms popping up right after the last one moves through.

Gotwood wrote:

WacoWx wrote:DFW looks to be setting up for some flash flooding according to radar trends.

One of the more relaxing days I can remember love a cool rainy day.

I love a rainy night

Edwards Limestone wrote:Per usual, congrats to our DFW/NTX guys. Houston and East TX will get even more tonight. Glad someone is getting it.

I’m done trusting any 3-5 day forecasts down here- I think the global models really struggle with lack of sufficient upper air data in the eastern Mexican highlands, something that must play a large role in our rainfall totals and weather.


We’ve got some nice drizzle on tap though.

Very disappointing to see this pattern repeat itself once again. North TX seems to be cashing in more than normal lately leaving south/central TX high and dry. Wish we could win the rain lottery every once in a while...

Edwards Limestone wrote:Per usual, congrats to our DFW/NTX guys. Houston and East TX will get even more tonight. Glad someone is getting it.

I’m done trusting any 3-5 day forecasts down here- I think the global models really struggle with lack of sufficient upper air data in the eastern Mexican highlands, something that must play a large role in our rainfall totals and weather.

We’ve got some nice drizzle on tap though.

I 've always thought and mentioned on this forum before that one of the toughest regions to forecast accurately is down across South Central Texas for the reasons you stated among others.
 
Having said that however, I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure DFW missed out a week ago on the rain for the most part which was much advertised via the global models then (i.e. DFW under flash flood watch and yet got very little). While useful tools of course, we know that using globals to predict accuracy for one's own backyard can be extremely risky.

Short range models have always been my preference because they handle the atmospheric dynamics better for these individual setups which often can make or break who gets what, how much and where. In terms of the severe weather season, tracking outflow boundaries, frontal progress/drylines positions etc can vary in real-time and so globals often play catch up once you're within that 24 hour to day of/real-time window.

In terms of the weather down here, our timeframe for a higher probability of rain today was always greatest early evening and so let's see what happens. Radar starting to pop a bit out west. Fingers crossed you cash in on something. I get the frustration. We need to cash in some more before getting into a summer/La Nina pattern. Pattern going into May still looks promising as well so that's encouraging.

DFW got screwed last week as well and several other events, but I will say yes, S TX has been getting the worst of the busts.

Hopefully you can cash in before mid-May and the spigot shuts off.

Didn't rain a drop here either again. In fact most of today was actually a nice day after all the talk of a dreary wet weekend I really hope May does something here because this is ridiculous after how terrible the winter was especially but at least it was actually raining then...

Had a wake low move through early this evening. Pressure dropped 0.15 in/Hg in 20 minutes.

DFW's definitely been getting screwed with the lack of severe weather (much more so than other locations in every which direction), but has been doing quite well on the precipitation front having seen almost double its average rainfall since March 1st.

snownado wrote:DFW's definitely been getting screwed with the lack of severe weather (much more so than other locations in every which direction), but has been doing quite well on the precipitation front having seen almost double its average rainfall since March 1st.

So relieved, 2010s were brutal for the core DFW counties with many costly hail and tornado events.

Ntxw wrote:

snownado wrote:DFW's definitely been getting screwed with the lack of severe weather (much more so than other locations in every which direction), but has been doing quite well on the precipitation front having seen almost double its average rainfall since March 1st.

So relieved, 2010s were brutal for the core DFW counties with many costly hail and tornado events.

Yeah, I would not say we're getting screwed. I think we're just getting a pass which i'm fine with.

Good soakers just west of San Antonio moving east currently producing some rainfall rates of 4 inches per hour. Patience is rewarded.

Up to 13 hours in the dark now. Oncor trying to say the problem is "vegetation" which seems like code for "incompetence." The rest of the neighborhood went down a few hours ago (well after the last rumble of thunder was heard) and there is still no ETA.

Bonus rain now moving through as a second round of storms has developed over West/NW areas of San Antonio. Nice!

Big hail reports on the north side of San Antonio/Bexar County.

Yesterday's event put DFW +4" for the year, and the 00z EPS says more rain is on the way.

bubba hotep wrote:Yesterday's event put DFW +4" for the year, and the 00z EPS says more rain is on the way.

https://m3o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/epsens/2024042100/360/qpf_acc-mean-imp.us_sc.png

The water year (starts in October) has been very good for NTX. Fall->Winter->Spring has been very generous for us and thus far has followed well with El Nino above normal precip.