Texas Fall 2018

[funster]

I am ready. Skeeters - it is time for you to die.

[weatherdude1108]

Watch out for those sneaky wind gusts!



Mesoscale Discussion 1548
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1019 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

Areas affected...Parts of central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 091519Z - 091715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Gradually intensifying convection into early afternoon may
be accompanied by increasing severe weather potential, mainly
strong, potentially damaging wind gusts. This could require a watch
within the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Near the southeastern periphery of stronger cyclonic
mid-level flow (30-50 kt around 500 mb), associated with large-scale
troughing now shifting northeast of the southern Rockies, a line of
thunderstorms is gradually evolving across the Texas Hill Country
southward into the Rio Grande Valley. This appears supported by
inflow of seasonably high moisture content, which may be
contributing to CAPE as high as 2000+ J/kg.

A gradual further upscale growth and intensification seems probable
into early afternoon, as the boundary layer continues to warm ahead
of it, and activity becomes increasingly based within the boundary
layer. Despite trends toward shrinking low-level hodographs with
weakening of low-level flow to the south of the Red River, strong
deep layer shear may contribute to further organization, and it is
possible that the risk for potentially damaging wind gusts could
increase with a strengthening surface cold pool.

Otherwise, mid-level lapse rates appear generally modest to weak,
but there may also be some risk for severe hail. While low-level
hodographs appear to be in the process of becoming modest to weak,
an isolated tornado or two may still not be out of the question.

..Kerr/Grams.. 10/09/2018

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 29209934 30169875 30789833 31389812 31929769 32389625
32019576 30579615 29049739 28409861 28289942 29209934

[Brent]

Temp down to 65 here fall is ahead of schedule

Not really buying another severe threat at least in the metro later given the radar

[gboudx]

Temp down to 65 here fall is ahead of schedule

Not really buying another severe threat at least in the metro later given the radar

The NWS agrees with your thinking:

Across North Texas (including the Metroplex), the threat for
severe weather has ended as much cooler temperatures are expected
to remain due to the extensive cloud cover from the convection
across Central Texas. Previous thinking that another round of
storms would move in from the west is fading, and now believe only
a few showers will remain across North Texas as the atmosphere
continues to be worked over.

[Ntxw]

Not going to get severe weather with a north wind. Threat is mostly in areas ahead south and east that have not had anything yet. Fall is here for an extended stay.

[JayDT]

Finally the beginning of my favorite time of the year seems to really be here! 40s?! 30s maybe?! What a great thing to log on to lol. Excited to be on here more often, and to see what crazy weather this fall/winter has in store for us. I also cant wait to finally completely get rid of all those pesky mosquitoes Also, the heat and humidity has me completely annoyed and done at this point. Bring on the cool weather, the cold weather, the cold rain, and the sn**

[South Texas Storms]

Nice line of storms approaching SA and Austin. I love it!

[Haris]

RAINING BUCKETS BUCKETS !!!!!! NIGHTTIME HERE IN W AUSTIN!

1.2" IN 45 MIN

[Ntxw]

DFW airport has seen almost 2" of rain today. With what happened in Sept a wetter than normal fall is guaranteed. Typical of oncoming El Ninos.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Finally the beginning of my favorite time of the year seems to really be here! 40s?! 30s maybe?! What a great thing to log on to lol. Excited to be on here more often, and to see what crazy weather this fall/winter has in store for us. I also cant wait to finally completely get rid of all those pesky mosquitoes Also, the heat and humidity has me completely annoyed and done at this point. Bring on the cool weather, the cold weather, the cold rain, and the sn**

How likely would snow be though, if we get this cold this early? It may end up to be like last year where here in DFW it was too cold to snow..and we got NADA as far as winter precip.

[weatherdude1108]

Coming down hard at the office in north Austin! Looked live evening for a while there, street lights almost came on!

[weatherdude1108]

After all of this rain, looking forward to this first true taste of Fall weather!

000
FXUS64 KEWX 091944
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
244 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
A line of showers and thunderstorms continues to push east with the
back edge now nearing the I35 corridor. Ahead of the line a complex
of showers and storms developed across the Coastal Plains and
continues to push north across our eastern Counties. Overall, the
threat of widespread Flash Flooding is low as the line has become
more broken and has decent forward progress. Brief heavy rain with
totals up to 1-2" will remain possible and could see some Flood
Advisories needed from the heavier cells. We haven`t seen any severe
storms since the morning hours, but the chances are non-zero and some
intensification remains possible. The eastern cells are currently
strong with 30+ knot winds being reported.

Rainfall will continue to push east in the late afternoon and
evening hours and will break PoPs into 3-6 hour increments for the
tonight forecast to properly show the trend of rain ending from west
to east. Behind the rainfall, north winds and cooler/drier air will
filter into the area. Lows tonight could reach the upper 50s for the
Hill Country with 60s elsewhere. Highs tomorrow will remain in the
80s with dry weather continuing. Lows Wednesday night will be in the
50s and 60s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
The beginning of the long-term forecast will remain mostly dry with
the cooler temperatures continuing. Highs Thursday and Friday will
remain in the 80s with lows in the 50s and 60s. Rain chances return
to mainly the northwest CWA on Saturday as the remnants of Hurricane
Sergio in the Pacific races across West Texas. Behind it a cold
front is progged to move through the area Saturday night or Sunday
with additional rain chances lasting through Monday night. Much
cooler temperatures are possible behind this front with highs Monday
currently forecasted to be in the 60s across the area with lows
Tuesday morning in the 40s and 50s. It will be a welcome to Fall
weather if this comes to fruition.

[Ralph's Weather]

Some strong gusts here in Tyler just now. I am excited for the Fall weather to finally take hold, can't wait for that first morning in the 50s.

[dhweather]

Not going to get severe weather with a north wind. Threat is mostly in areas ahead south and east that have not had anything yet. Fall is here for an extended stay.

Do not taunt wxman57 , he's kinda like the happy fun ball.

[weatherdude1108]

Yesterday's flood on the Llano River. A colleague of mine shared this.

https://www.facebook.com/AlbertRamonKVU ... 524903899/

[Haris]

2018: 34.76" at my place

If I were to use Camp Mabry's annual average, I have ALREADY MET THAT!!! 34.05" is average.

[Cpv17]

2018: 34.76" at my place

If I were to use Camp Mabry's annual average, I have ALREADY MET THAT!!! 34.05" is average.

Man that’s insane!! Y’all have had more rain than us here in Wharton and I’m in SETX lol

[Cpv17]

I’m so fed up with the weather over my area over the last month or so. The heavy rain has missed us every single time and today we had a solid band of heavy rain coming in and it split up into two about 10 miles west of me and all we ended up getting was sprinkles while areas to my south and north got a deluge.

[weatherdude1108]

3.5 inches since Saturday. 3 inches of that yesterday and today. What was interesting is that the line of rain had lightning bolts on radar, but I heard only one clap of thunder before it started, and saw absolutely no lightning or thunder during it. No heavy winds either. Just the usual moderate to heavy rain.

I got about 12 inches in September (I guess(?).lol)
Backyard is a puddly squishy mess, walking around.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Made it down to 49 this morning. Upper 30s could be possible early next week.