Texas Fall-2015

weatherdude1108 · #601 Postby **weatherdude1108** » Sun Oct 04, 2015 7:18 am

My watering day is Wednesday. Maybe I should water, just in case Thursday and Friday don't pan out. :wink:

aggiecutter · #602 Postby **aggiecutter** » Sun Oct 04, 2015 9:39 am

#603 Postby **Ntxw** » Sun Oct 04, 2015 9:58 pm

Wake up Texas. A heavy rain event is coming to the state with a parked ULL. Been getting wetter as the period approaches.

In fact it is raining right now in far west Texas. For so much complaining on lack of rain, I'd thought there would be more posts of joy for this :wink:

Clearly the Subtropical jet is tapping into the Nino equatorial convective plume

weatherdude1108 · #604 Postby **weatherdude1108** » Sun Oct 04, 2015 10:20 pm

Ntxw wrote:Wake up Texas. A heavy rain event is coming to the state with a parked ULL. Been getting wetter as the period approaches.

http://i57.tinypic.com/10gfoea.gif

In fact it is raining right now in far west Texas. For so much complaining on lack of rain, I'd thought there would be more posts of joy for this

Clearly the Subtropical jet is tapping into the Nino equatorial convective plume

http://i58.tinypic.com/xpdd2p.gif[

WHOA!!!

I have been so busy today, haven't had time to check the models. GOODNESS. Looking forward to it! That is the spot (hill country and central Texas) that the rain train/cores need to go. Long fetch of Pacific moisture. :double:

Thanks for the update Ntxw!

:wink:

#605 Postby **Ntxw** » Sun Oct 04, 2015 10:28 pm

weatherdude1108 wrote:I have been so busy today, haven't had time to check the models. GOODNESS. Looking forward to it! That is the spot (hill country and central Texas) that the rain train/cores need to go. Long fetch of Pacific moisture.
Thanks for the update Ntxw!

Definitely good for the Rivers! Hopefully as time goes on it will overspread more eastward than the models are depicting. Tough for modelling with a stalled out 500mb low

weatherdude1108 · #606 Postby **weatherdude1108** » Sun Oct 04, 2015 10:48 pm

Ntxw wrote:
weatherdude1108 wrote:I have been so busy today, haven't had time to check the models. GOODNESS. Looking forward to it! That is the spot (hill country and central Texas) that the rain train/cores need to go. Long fetch of Pacific moisture.
Thanks for the update Ntxw!

Definitely good for the Rivers! Hopefully as time goes on it will overspread more eastward than the models are depicting. Tough for modelling with a stalled out 500mb low

Yeah, I'm sure we'll see some typical flip-flopping of the models the next couole days.

Website · #607 Postby **Brent** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 12:09 am

Um... has the GFS lost its mind? I was not expecting this.

#608 Postby **Tireman4** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 5:14 am

[quote="Brent"]Um... has the GFS lost its mind? I was not expecting this.

Flip flopping....

#609 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 8:05 am

Our local TV weather personalities are only calling for 1" of rain Thursday night into Friday and temps back up to 90 by mid week.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE RIDGING ON THE WEST COAST...THAT WILL
REPLACE THE DEPARTING LOW...WILL BE TOO AMPLIFIED TO KEEP THE LOW
WITHIN THE POLAR JET STREAM. THIS MEANS THAT IT IS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THAT THE LOW WILL CUT OFF WELL TO OUR WEST. EL NINO FANS
SHOULD NOT DESPAIR...AS THERE WILL STILL BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION FOR RAIN CHANCES BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. BUT
FOR DROUGHT-STRICKEN EAST TEXAS...THIS EVENT MAY NOT PROVIDE MUCH
RELIEF.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO DIVE REMARKABLY FAR SOUTH
INTO MEXICO...BEFORE RETROGRADING. THIS WILL MEAN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL RETURN TO TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEX
GUIDANCE IS PROJECTING LOW TO MID 90S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MORE
THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH A PROLONGED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK...SO OUR RAINFALL
TALLIES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF OCTOBER WILL LIKELY HINGE ON THE
EVENT LATER THIS WEEK.

Summer just doesn't want to let go!!!! :grr:

#610 Postby **dhweather** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 8:34 am

Apparently so, 00Z says NO rain and apparently welcomes the ridge of death jr back to town. :grr:

edited to correct model run time on chart

#611 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 8:38 am

Another day another spread from guidance. GFS backed off while the Euro holds copious rainfall in the western half of the state. A lot will hinge on movement of the ULL. If you are expecting sunshine this week better head North

I don't trust a 7-10 day forecast of record mid October heat anymore than I do of record cold

. Euro tried to do it last week and clearly 180

Today's CPC weekly update of El Nino continues strengthening to 2.4C! The El Nino of El Ninos continues to pick up steam

#612 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 9:04 am

Also, got the approval for a first freeze contest with a prize. Start thinking about it this week and something will be up (hopefully) by the end of the week or early next week for everyone to participate :cheesy:

#613 Postby **gboudx** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 9:08 am

Yeah the DFW NWS and Steve McCauley are downplaying this upcoming rain event and saying looks like above normal temps and dry weather returns. Summer just doesn't want to leave. Lucy is teeing it up early this year.

#614 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 9:19 am

gboudx wrote:Yeah the DFW NWS and Steve McCauley are downplaying this upcoming rain event and saying looks like above normal temps and dry weather returns. Summer just doesn't want to leave. Lucy is teeing it up early this year.

I expect the rain % to drop as the week continues. The last 50% chance we saw, I saw notta drop of rain....lol

As for October, I still say it won't be till mid month before things really start to change, and we really start seeing temps consistently in 70's with lows in the 50's. Till then enjoy Indian summer....

aggiecutter · #615 Postby **aggiecutter** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 9:21 am

Texarkana recorded its first sub-50 low last night:

weatherdude1108 · #616 Postby **weatherdude1108** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 9:53 am

Meanwhile, EWX put out a hydrologic outlook within the last hour. Grain of salt at this point.

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
855 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY...

...OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS
MEXICO AND INTO TEXAS THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO DRAW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CREATE AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

...ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...
OVER THE LAST THREE MONTHS...RAINFALL DEFICITS OF 2 TO 8 INCHES
WERE COMMON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

THE PERSISTENCE OF DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION HAS LED TO
STREAMFLOWS THAT ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS RIO
GRANDE...NUECES AND COLORADO BASINS. THE FRIO...MEDINA...SAN
ANTONIO AND GUADALUPE BASINS WERE REPORTING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
FLOWS FOR EARLY OCTOBER.

...FORECAST RAINFALL...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. IN THESE AREAS
1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. FURTHER EASTWARD, SOMEWHAT
LIGHTER TOTALS ARE ANTICIPATED, GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH
RANGE. WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.

...POTENTIAL FLOODING IMPACTS...
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL FROM STORMS TRAINING ACROSS THE SAME
LOCATION COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND IN THE MORE
URBANIZED AREAS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

THE CURRENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUGGEST THAT MINOR RISES ON AREA
RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES WILL OCCUR...BUT WITH STREAMFLOWS BELOW
NORMAL...RISES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE BANKFULL TO MINOR
FLOOD STAGE LEVELS WITH THE CURRENT RAINFALL FORECAST. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE ALONG THE QUICKER RESPONDING
CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SHOULD
BASIN-WIDE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCUR...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING WOULD INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

$$

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... %20outlook

Website · #617 Postby **Brent** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 10:31 am

What in the world.... Summer is OVER!

:blowup:

#618 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 10:38 am

Great news, all! I just plotted a meteogram for Houston and it shows lows in the 70s and highs in the low-mid 90s next week! Winter appears to have ended. ;-)

weatherdude1108 · #619 Postby **weatherdude1108** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 10:57 am

Website · #620 Postby **Brent** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 11:37 am

wxman57 wrote:Great news, all! I just plotted a meteogram for Houston and it shows lows in the 70s and highs in the low-mid 90s next week! Winter appears to have ended.

TV mets backing off rain chances. :cry:

and 90s next Sunday. :roll:

Come on el nino... do something! I hardly consider a dry cold front to start October that only got us a little below average a few days anything other than typical October.

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