Texas Spring 2026

[Ntxw]

Storms so far have been training over the I-30 corridor in Dallas and Rockwall counties. Up to ~3" in spots radar estimated around Lake Ray Hubbard.

[rwfromkansas]

Dry in Tarrant so far but will see. Some big stuff around.

[HockeyTx82]

That cell in southeast Dallas county is looking a little interesting

[wxman22]

[Ntxw]

Looks like the rain finally shifted a bit west, DFW airport quickly picked up a third inch so far.

Edit: 1.10" in the span of 30 minutes.

[Quixotic]

Up my way, I don’t think I’ve ever seen so much lightning moving over constantly with very little rain. Weird.

[rwfromkansas]

The lightning was nuts. Did finally get .50. I will take that and be happy for now but hope Friday delivers.

[wxman22]

Enhanced risk issued today for portions of the panhandle and west OK.

[HockeyTx82]

I asked Copilot in Microsoft Edge about the SPC forecast page for tomorrow. It broke it down and then when I asked what surface temp do we need to break the cap if gave me this. Just curious how this checks with people who understand this more then I do.

Good question—that’s exactly the right way to think about tomorrow.

Short version: with the kind of EML/cap SPC is hinting at over north‑central Texas, you’re probably talking upper 70s to mid 80s°F to really start seriously eroding the cap near DFW/Ponder—but the exact number depends on the actual sounding.

Here’s the more honest breakdown:

- The cap isn’t just a number at the surface.
It’s the CIN (convective inhibition) between the surface parcel and its LFC, usually tied to a warm layer around 850–700 mb. Stronger cap = more warming or lift needed.

- Rule-of-thumb for a stout Texas cap with an EML:
When 700 mb temps are on the warm side (say around +9 to +12°C), you often need:
- Surface temps: roughly 80–85°F
- Dewpoints: mid 60s°F or better
to get parcels to “punch through” without help from strong large‑scale ascent or a boundary.

- If large‑scale lift is weaker (like SPC suggests for our area):
Then you lean more on pure heating and any subtle boundaries. That pushes the “break the cap” temp toward the higher end of that range—think low–mid 80s°F for a legit shot at robust updrafts.

- If we only get to low–mid 70s°F:
- Cap likely holds for most of the area
- You might only get one or two storms on a boundary or near the dryline, if at all
- That’s the “isolated but intense if it goes” scenario SPC is hinting at

If you want to really nail it down tomorrow, the key is:

- Watch the 18z FWD sounding (or RAP soundings over DFW)
- Compare observed surface temp/dewpoint at Denton/DFW to the parcel trace
- Look at CIN values dropping below about 25–50 J/kg—that’s when you’re in business.

If you tell me what the 700 mb temp and forecast surface T/Td are for DFW tomorrow afternoon (from a model or sounding), I can give you a much tighter “we probably need about X°F” estimate.

[Brent]

I'm all ready for our midnight squall line

I think that's been every severe event here. Even the derecho a few years ago. It's always after dark for sure

But seriously even up here it seems very iffy if anything even happens ahead of the line

Heck if you believe the NAM it's basically Saturday morning for DFW

[ElectricStorm]

Timing for better forcing keeps getting pushed back for tomorrow like usual

But the dryline seems to also be trending west, so we'll see. I don't really trust the CAMs showing nothing but I'm not very high on tomorrow either.

Interested in the next Day 2 to see if anything changes, I think the 10# will stay but honestly I think a 5# (that feels weird to type ) would suffice for now.

It's still very early in the season, most March events out here typically end up on the sloppier side it seems. A late night QLCS with not much ahead of it wouldn't surprise me.

[ElectricStorm]

Tiny 10# added for today which I think is definitely warranted. Meanwhile most of the 10# area for tomorrow has been dropped to the surprise of no one, and the area that remains has been shifted SE. Most of the risk area has shifted further east now and OKC area now barely in the slight risk after being enhanced since Day 4.

[Stratton23]

I dont think we transition to a more long term wet pattern until probably april, looks like at some point next week ridging shuts down the STJ

[Ntxw]

I dont think we transition to a more long term wet pattern until probably april, looks like at some point next week ridging shuts down the STJ

CANSIPs shows May-Aug relatively cooler and wetter than normal. Higher heights still around for March but as you noted April begins the shift. SOI still way positive for now. Mexico should be wetter than normal in May which will then be telling sign if the El Nino will have an impact.

[txtwister78]

Here we go. SPC has a significant severe hatched area outlined for much of the Hill Country and SC TX for Saturday with a potential upgrade possible per their latest discussion. Much needed rainfall could come with at a price unfortunately.

[txtwister78]

That mid month cold shot for Texas that some were hoping for is pretty much now nowhere to be found on the models (no surprise ). As I mentioned a week ago so long Winter it was nice knowing you for a week in January. See you again soon.

Spring is here and now bring on the rain baby! Time to cash in. Glad to see our friends up north in the DFW got in on the action yesterday even if for some it resulted in some flooding.

[Stratton23]

I have a feeling this el nino is going to be another dud like what happened in 2023, last summer was wet but that was a la nina summer, it feels like the last several el nino summers we have seen have been the complete opposite of wet and cooler

[Brent]

I feel like the models have been just absolutely terrible for months

Who know what summer will bring. It's probably gonna be stupid no matter what anyway. I'm still waiting for all the rain everyone has posted about for 2 weeks

There are short range models here with no rain before we clear out Saturday morning after all the hype

[rwfromkansas]

Seems the NTX rain will be more central TX now, but they need it too.

[Brent]

2 deaths west of Enid and the KFOR chasers crashed

Crazy start for sure west of here