Texas Summer 2017

[Ntxw]

That's an interesting photo, I don't recall seeing anything on radar, maybe a really low scud cloud?

DFW airport today so far has picked up 1.09" of rain which is more than all of May's 0.70". It is also the first 1"+ total day since April 2nd when 2.14" fell.

[TarrantWx]

The cell in Eastern Dallas county looks to be latching on to the outflow boundary and going supercellular. RadarScope showing potential for baseball sized hail.

[Ntxw]

Another round is moving into Tarrant county, not sure how well these will hold on but may pad the totals a bit. Air is still quite juicy with high pwats and dews never dropped much after the first round.

[Cpv17]

Pretty big thunderstorm just popped up to the southwest of San Antonio. Hopefully it goes over them. They could definitely use it there.

[aggiecutter]

The cell in Eastern Dallas county looks to be latching on to the outflow boundary and going supercellular. RadarScope showing potential for baseball sized hail.

[bubba hotep]

Another round is moving into Tarrant county, not sure how well these will hold on but may pad the totals a bit. Air is still quite juicy with high pwats and dews never dropped much after the first round.

Riding the train north out of downtown and can see nice crisp updrafts off to the SW. If convergence boundary sets up from SW to NE across Dallas then we could see some training set up. Totals would sky rocket based on inflow from the SE with high theta-e air pooled just to the SE of DFW and PW is running from 1.8-2 across DFW.

[Brent]

How dark it is 2 hours before sunset is freaking people out lol

My rain gauge might be full by the end of this

[Ntxw]

Cluster of storms out in west Texas is worth watching to see if they can spawn off something by morning. Another spoke of the ULL (weakness over Texas) that is moving slowly and pretty much cutoff from the main flow should keep it active the next few days. Man I'm getting June 2004 vibes with this kind of pattern. I don't know if we'll get the 10+ inches but early to mid of that month certainly had the weakness. Also a weak Nino, cooler eastern basin type event. The longer we can keep the rain chances the better off we'll be late month.

[gboudx]

Seen between Wylie and Princeton earlier almost looks like a tornado?

https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamTarby/st ... 3464947714

Possibly a tropical funnel? Surface based CAPE was pushing 3,000 in the eastern portions of DFW earlier.

I doubt it. I was driving in Wylie/Sachse at that same time and saw that feature, but my angle was different. It was never close to the ground, nor did it appear to be rotating. It caught my attention, but looked benign. It looked like something you might see as wall cloud feature for a supercell.

[bubba hotep]

My rain gauge got knocked over at some point but I'm going to guess 3.5-4" for my area. Still raining and portions of 78 had 2 lanes closed earlier due to flooding.

[Brent]

Seen between Wylie and Princeton earlier almost looks like a tornado?

https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamTarby/st ... 3464947714

Possibly a tropical funnel? Surface based CAPE was pushing 3,000 in the eastern portions of DFW earlier.

I doubt it. I was driving in Wylie/Sachse at that same time and saw that feature, but my angle was different. It was never close to the ground, nor did it appear to be rotating. It caught my attention, but looked benign. It looked like something you might see as wall cloud feature for a supercell.

I know certainly nothing caught my interest here in Wylie only saw it because someone sent it to me after the fact. The power did blink for a second at work once but that was it.

Just got home, about 4.25" here... some of that was yesterday. Was about 1.75" when I left at 12:30pm

[bubba hotep]

Cluster of storms out in west Texas is worth watching to see if they can spawn off something by morning. Another spoke of the ULL (weakness over Texas) that is moving slowly and pretty much cutoff from the main flow should keep it active the next few days. Man I'm getting June 2004 vibes with this kind of pattern. I don't know if we'll get the 10+ inches but early to mid of that month certainly had the weakness. Also a weak Nino, cooler eastern basin type event. The longer we can keep the rain chances the better off we'll be late month.

That cluster moving in from the west seems to be getting more organized with cooling cloud tops over the past 30 minutes or so.

[Ntxw]

DFW airport picked up another 0.82" overnight making a total of 2.68" first three days of June so far. Another complex is between Mineral Wells and Abilene. Dewpoints are still quite high.

[Ralph's Weather]

We got will over 2 inches from the first batch more be moving in shortly.

[gboudx]

My total, including Thursday because I didn't empty the rain gauge, is 4".

The drought map CaptinCrunch posted on page 1 should look vastly different the next time.

[Ntxw]

WFO discussion from FW this morning was pretty good

.DISCUSSION... /Issued 520 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017/
The storm complex that brought over 7 inches of rainfall to
Throckmorton Friday morning dumped over 3.5 inches in Graham
before dousing the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex later in the day.
Dallas/Tarrant as well as Wise/Denton/Collin all had locations
topping 3 inches. Much of this fell over a short period of time,
resulting in flash flooding, and any additional rainfall could
quickly reaggravate these flooding issues. With the potential for
additional rounds of significant rainfall today and tonight, a
flash flood watch will be in effect from 7 am today to 7 am Sunday
along and northwest of a line from Comanche to Kaufman to Bonham.
This includes all of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex as well as
the Sherman/Denison area.

Anomalously high precipitable water values remain in place. As an
upper trough approaches, enhancing the moisture flux that was
largely absent in recent days, the precipitation efficiency will
be extraordinary with the activity today and tonight. Urban areas
will be particularly susceptible to rapid rises in water.
Motorists venturing out for weekend activities should keep abreast
of the weather. Be aware of areas that tend to flood readily and
take alternate routes. In addition, many creeks and streams are
swollen and will likely go out of their banks with additional
rainfall. Turn around; don`t drown.

At this time, a linear MCS is impacting portions of the I-35
corridor. The northern extent, now within the Dallas/Fort Worth
Metroplex, is outflow-dominant and has shown a general weakening
trend. However, this rainfall will cause some minor street
flooding early this morning. The stronger cells are within Central
Texas though the cloud tops have warmed from their greatest
intensity earlier this morning. With this activity, lightning and
heavy rain will be the primary concerns, but some small hail and
gusty winds will still be possible. The rich inflow just above the
boundary layer up to around 850mb is on the order of 20kts. As
this flow weakens and veers through mid-morning, the activity will
dissipate after daybreak.

There may be a brief interlude in its wake this morning, but
redevelopment is already occurring across western portions of
North Texas. Further convective initiation is likely through the
afternoon hours, particularly across the northwestern half of the
CWA which will be both within the favorable quadrant of the mid-
level low and beneath significant diffluence aloft. The complex
west of San Antonio is evidence of another impulse, further
separated from the upper trough, which may aid in convective
initiation across the southeastern half of the CWA this
afternoon. In addition, with weak low-level flow prevailing,
numerous outflow boundaries will remain throughout the day and may
serve to focus new development.

The column is nearly saturated though not moist adiabatic. Healthy
lapse rates 850-500mb will only steepen further as the trough
approaches. Skinny CAPE should mean only moderate updraft strength
within the hail growth region. Our cloudy southeast zones should
peak in the mid 80s, but SBCAPE values may still exceed 2000J/kg
within that largely untapped environment. The approaching system
will enhance the flow aloft, but this should still be insufficient
to allow for large hail. Small hail and gusty winds may accompany
the stronger cells, but flooding will remain the primary hazard
for much of the region.

The mid-level (700-500mb) low will be centered over Northwest
Texas or southwestern Oklahoma late tonight, which may set the
stage for significant nocturnal rains within the flood watch area.
As the low drops into North Texas Sunday morning, showers and
thunderstorms will spread/develop southeast into Central and East
Texas where the bulk of the activity will be Sunday afternoon.
While the heaviest rainfall Sunday is expected to be within the
current watch area during the early morning hours, there is the
potential for additional heavy rain, especially to the southeast,
during the daylight hours. If this heavy rain threat looks to be
widespread, particularly if there is preceding heavy rainfall
today and/or tonight, the watch may need to be extended in time
and include additional areas.

The activity late tonight and into Sunday underneath the upper
trough will serve to further deepen it, and surface cyclogenesis
will likely occur within North Texas on Sunday. The low will
follow its parent trough aloft, slowly transiting the region on
Monday, inducing northerly surface winds in its wake. Initially,
the low-level cool/dry advection will be negligible, and the upper
forcing will maintain rain chances Monday night into Tuesday, but
these chances will steadily decrease from northwest to southeast.
Noticeably drier air will arrive on Wednesday and prevail the
remainder of the workweek. It will not be particularly cool or dry
for early June, but following several days of maritime tropical
air, the lower humidity and morning temperatures in the low to mid
60s will be refreshing.

Might want to keep an eye on nocturnal flooding once the ULL moves in the overnight hours.

[bubba hotep]

Atmosphere is pretty worked over this morning but another impulse appears to be rounding the base of the disturbance. Few hours for recovery, so let's see if there is enough lift to squeeze another round of rain out across DFW.

[Texas Snowman]

WFO discussion from FW this morning was pretty good

[div].DISCUSSION... /Issued 520 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017/
With the potential for
additional rounds of significant rainfall today and tonight, a
flash flood watch will be in effect from 7 am today to 7 am Sunday
along and northwest of a line from Comanche to Kaufman to Bonham.
This includes all of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex as well as
the Sherman/Denison area.

Further convective initiation is likely through the
afternoon hours, particularly across the northwestern half of the
CWA which will be both within the favorable quadrant of the mid-
level low and beneath significant diffluence aloft.

I'm just hoping that the downpours will hold off this evening for a couple of hours so we can get my youngest son's Denison High School graduation in.

We dodged rain and storms two weeks ago when my father passed away, my daughter graduated from UT and we buried dad. It was always on the radar, just never exactly where we were at the moment.

I'm hoping for the same tonight, then it can rain buckets.

[Ntxw]

I'm just hoping that the downpours will hold off this evening for a couple of hours so we can get my youngest son's Denison High School graduation in.

We dodged rain and storms two weeks ago when my father passed away, my daughter graduated from UT and we buried dad. It was always on the radar, just never exactly where we were at the moment.

I'm hoping for the same tonight, then it can rain buckets.

I am very sorry for your loss at the same time very happy for your kids on their achievements. Hopefully any rain will hold off to your south in the evening, there should be a lull after this current complex passes through.

[Texas Snowman]

I'm just hoping that the downpours will hold off this evening for a couple of hours so we can get my youngest son's Denison High School graduation in.

We dodged rain and storms two weeks ago when my father passed away, my daughter graduated from UT and we buried dad. It was always on the radar, just never exactly where we were at the moment.

I'm hoping for the same tonight, then it can rain buckets.

I am very sorry for your loss at the same time very happy for your kids on their achievements. Hopefully any rain will hold off to your south in the evening, there should be a lull after this current complex passes through.

Thank you Ntxw, I appreciate your kind words and hope that the rain does indeed hold off this evening in northern Grayson County.

Sherman High looks like they'll be getting in their late morning graduation. Hopefully, Denison High will get their ceremony in this evening.

You know, as is the case with a number of people on this forum, we've never met. But sometimes I feel like many of you great folks are a part of my extended family.