Texas Summer-2015

[weatherdude1108]

It dumped down here on the southside, last check of the rain gauge had 0.40 and it was still raining hard. Haven't checked yet but I'd say it's probably closer to 3 quarters of an inch now. Currently not raining but it's just to the south and east of here.

I got another 0.7 today around 4:30 to 5:30 from a heavy rain producing thunderstorm with wind gusts. 0.9 since yesterday. Been in the 70s since around 5pm.

[weatherdude1108]

As I remember the infamous Summer of 2011, I am very much loving this late June/almost July forecast!

[DonWrk]

Don't know about yall but I'm ready for some more rain! I don't like when the 7 day precip map doesn't show much.

[Brent]

As I remember the infamous Summer of 2011, I am very much loving this late June/almost July forecast!

I'm hoping it holds up... this is my first summer in Texas and I just moved into a 2nd floor room close to work with large west facing windows and I'm on day 5 battling the Texas summer sun. Started at 90 in here the first day(with just those flimsy cheap plastic blinds doing nothing), down to only 85 today. Yay. I've got thermal darkening curtains blocking almost every bright spot of sun that shines in here today(also my first time on the 2nd floor). With the noisy fans it's not terrible, but I'm not used to it being this warm in my room. Even 78-80 bothers me lol. Fortunately the nights have been somewhat cool so as soon as it gets dark I've been opening the windows and getting it down to 68-71 in here around sunrise. But ugh I hate summer.

[WeatherNewbie]

Quite the little cell heading towards DFW. Windy out there.

[Brent]

Quite the little cell heading towards DFW. Windy out there.

Where did this even come from? Bright lightning, windy, and torrents of rain...

[gpsnowman]

Some serious lightning on the way to work this morning. Did not see any rain but Dallas County is getting hit pretty good.

[Brent]

Right at an inch of rain here after about an inch and a half from Friday Night... closing out June with 2 1/2 inches. Not too shabby. Not quite how May ended... but hints of the same pattern just more subdued.

[gboudx]

A SEASONAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE REGION THE
FIRST FULL WEEK OF JULY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP 500MB HEIGHTS
ABOVE 5900M THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
IS LESS BULLISH WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...WE MAY NEED TO
BEGIN DISCUSSING OUR FIRST TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON.

[weatherdude1108]

A SEASONAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE REGION THE
FIRST FULL WEEK OF JULY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP 500MB HEIGHTS
ABOVE 5900M THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
IS LESS BULLISH WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...WE MAY NEED TO
BEGIN DISCUSSING OUR FIRST TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON.

UGH! Say it isn't so! The EWX office mentioned a blurb about that in the last paragraph of today's discussion. I have only watered the lawn twice this year total (April and early June). I was hoping to keep up the streak.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
356 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS DEPICTS A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE EURO...WHICH WAS
SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN OUR WEST AND
TROUGH TO OUR EAST...HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.

[aggiecutter]

Not so fast my friend:

[Brent]

A SEASONAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE REGION THE
FIRST FULL WEEK OF JULY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP 500MB HEIGHTS
ABOVE 5900M THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
IS LESS BULLISH WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...WE MAY NEED TO
BEGIN DISCUSSING OUR FIRST TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON.

Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

Come on Euro.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Is it me, or has the GFS been worse since the upgrade over the winter?


Also, more training of storms or stationary storms over DT Houston right now. Some spots already seeing 5 inches with much more to come

[weatherdude1108]

Got another 0.7-inch around 5:30-6:30pm. Wind, thunder, heavy rain. 1.6 inches since last Saturday. 74 degrees!:)

[Ntxw]

NWS FW is a little fast to jump the gun on a run of the GFS. Euro doesn't have anything like that, in fact quite opposite with unseasonable cold front. 18z GFS backed away from the death ridge, and given ridges have no staying power this year, I doubt it.

[weatherdude1108]

I can LITERALLY blow steam outside right now. Dewpoint close to 73.3 since that is current temp in my yard. Pretty cool! I thought it was Winter for a second.

[weatherdude1108]

NWS FW is a little fast to jump the gun on a run of the GFS. Euro doesn't have anything like that, in fact quite opposite with unseasonable cold front. 18z GFS backed away from the death ridge, and given ridges have no staying power this year, I doubt it.

I agree. It is like a "memory" in the climate system. Drought begets drought, wet begets wet. Highs follow the low soil moisture, lows follow high soil moisture. Or maybe like a feedback loop of high pressure dries out soil, creating higher pressure and further drying (Summer 2011). Conversely low pressure brings moisture, saturating soil. Subsequent low pressures follow the similar path of areas of higher soil moisture, creating their own feedback loops (May 2015). It takes the changing of seasons/ENSO cycles/PDO to change the cycles, creating new feedback loops.

[weatherdude1108]

The GFS has a tropical system hitting the middle Texas coast, moving towards southern Texas in 348-384 hours. Also seems to want to show a Pacific storm south of Baja, barely on south edge of map. Again, LONG ways out.

[weatherdude1108]

Meanwhile, the inevitable Dog Days are upon us. It has been a nice Spring/early Summer. I miss it already.

Shortest discussion I have seen in a while. I know it is July, but I didn't like last sentence. At least we haven't hit 100 yet.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 031937 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
237 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE ONE THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN OF WARM...HUMID...
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHTS...FOLLOWED BY PARTLY CLOUDY AND HOT
DAYS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE PW IS HIGHEST ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
FLATTEN OUT A BIT NEXT WEEK. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK OTHER
THAN LOW POPS IN VAL VERDE COUNTY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
PROXIMITY TO THE UPSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S..
BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT NO EXCESSIVE HEAT
IS EXPECTED. LONGER RANGE PROJECTIONS OF THE MJO INDICATE MOST OF
JULY MAY REMAIN DRY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

[JDawg512]

Yea I saw that last sentence too and thought to myself most of July??? I know we are entering the inactive phase of the MJO in this part of the world but I would think by 2 weeks we would start to see a transition. What are your thoughts NTXW?

I'm not suprised that the first half of July will be quiet but I'd be suprised if the last half stays quiet.