Texas Fall 2013

[horselattitudesfarm]

We're in the spot where its not raining right under the word 'Lucas'



.08 inches so far at the house. My driveway is almost wet under the trees, but not wet enough to shine yet. By the way, whats the deal with our subtropical ridge coming back by next week? I thought by the end of September these things were usually pushed south by the westerlies. I figured this first front would kind of get things moving and make the weather more progressive.

Per the NWS AFD:
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL MAKE A COMEBACK NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN TO THE MID 90S AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY.

[Rgv20]

Update from the NWS in Brownsville about the upcoming Rain event....Still not sure how much rainfall we are going to get but the best guess would be anywhere from 2-4 inches.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
925 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...LOOKING AT THE 00Z RAOB DATA...AND TRENDS REGARDING
THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE...WITH THE PROBABILITY DECREASING OF TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST. THE SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
SURFACE WAVE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS EMBEDDED IN WILL ARRIVE
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

SOME EVIDENCE OF THE INCREASED LOW MOISTURE ARRIVAL IS ALREADY
MANIFESTING ITSELF IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED SHOWERS BUILDING UP
OVER THE LOWER VALLEY AND COASTAL WATERS. EXPECTING THE COVERAGE
OF THOSE TO STAY MINIMAL THROUGH MIDNIGHT THOUGH AND NO NEAR TERM
CHANGES NEEDED.

HOWEVER FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE LACK OF A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE TO SHIFT OUR WINDS MORE NORTHERLY AND PULL DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIR IN BEHIND THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL
PROBABLY HELP OUR NET RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE CHALLENGING BECAUSE MOST AVAILABLE
DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERDOING THE GULF LOW FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT WITH A DEEP MOIST TROPICAL MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
AND RELATIVELY STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT EXPECTING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY AND POSSIBLY STARTING
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN A MORE SCATTERED FASHION AS SATURATED AIR
SLIDES IN UNDER THE DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW OF TC MANUEL.

BY SATURDAY SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED JUST OFF THE GULF
COAST...IN A BAROCLINIC NON-TROPICAL FASHION AND LOW LAYER AND MID
LEVEL ASCENT SHOULD CREATE A FAIRLY HIGH COVERAGE OF MORE
STRATIFORM BUT OCCASIONALLY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. PRODUCED A
ROUGH GUESS AT AREAL PRECIP AVERAGES IN THE EARLIER PUBLISHED
ESFBRO/HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/ AND THOSE STILL LOOK PRETTY GOOD. THE
ONLY CHANGE SINCE 4PM IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A TROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL NOT INTERFERE WITH OUR PROCESSES SIGNIFICANTLY. HAVE
RAISED POPS TO 60 TO 70 PCT FOR TOMORROW AND TWEAKED QPF VALUES TO
INCREASE THEM. ON THIS SHIFT TOTAL RAINFALL IS STILL QUESTIONABLE
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE FOR ANY PORTION OF
THE CWA...BUT IT MAY STILL BE NEEDED BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE
WITH 3/6 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AROUND 2.5 TO 3.0 INCHES IN MOST
PLACES. /68-JGG/

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

What are the thoughts on the 00Z NAM? Is it having feedback issues or is it catching onto something? It keeps precipitation across a large portion of northern Texas through Saturday afternoon.

[Ntxw]

^ Probably feedback issues, once the front clears I don't see any reason it lingers.

FW has a cool graphic on precip totals. Link/image is time sensitive I think and hopefully updates.

DFW and Love airports officially over 1 inch tonight

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

I just saw one of the DFW mets saying that Manuel may move into Texas, which that's why the NAM is having that output...hmm

^ Probably feedback issues, once the front clears I don't see any reason it lingers.

FW has a cool graphic on precip totals. Link/image is time sensitive I think and hopefully updates.

DFW and Love airports officially over 1 inch tonight

[northtxboy]

Best night sleep i have had in awhile. rained all night here in Windom Tx. Can't wait to check the rain guage!

[srainhoutx]

The ingredients for a Heavy Rainfall Event continue to come together across the Lone Star State today into. Saturday. The WPC as outlined portions of West Central Texas with a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall with a Slight Risk for portions of Central/SE/E Texas today extending into most of SE Texas/SW Louisiana on Saturday. The GFS/Euro are a bit quicker to dry us out during the afternoon on Saturday while the NAM/SREF/HRRR short term meso guidance are slower with the frontal boundary and extend the heavy rainfall threat into Sunday. Flash Flood Watches have been hoisted along and N of the I-35 Corridor for Central Texas and Flash Flood Watches may be required further SE into SE//E Texas later this morning and into Louisiana as well. Training storms with 1-2 inch per hour rainfall rates are possible Friday afternoon into Saturday morning as a slow moving frontal boundary sags S and a Coastal Low develops along the Lower Texas Coast and moves NE. The remnants of Manuel in the mid levels combined with deep tropical moisture streaming inland from the Gulf will provide a good lifting mechanism as well as good dynamics from the sagging slow moving trough appear to be the ingredients needed to produce 3-5 inches of rain with some isolated 6-7 inch amounts and possibly higher across portions of S Central/Central/SE/E Texas and SW Louisiana. Those with Friday evening travel plans need to monitor weather conditions closely in this complex and comlicated Heavy Rainfall potential. Stay Tuned.

[dhweather]

2.03 at my house, which is remarkable. I say that because we missed all of the early rain (prior to 8PM) it went east or west of us.


If we could somehow get two more, that would be extremely helpful in alleviating some of the drought conditions. After the front passes, the column will be scoured of moisture and the subtropical ridge will return by Tuesday.

[gboudx]

^ I didn't check my gauge this morning but same as you with it really not starting until around 8. That's about when we lost electricity for about an hour. I was awakened about 3 times last night with some hard rain coming down and that helped me fall back asleep with a smile.

Looks like plenty more on the way.

[Portastorm]

Just .78 inches of rain at the PWC but I think our rain in south central Texas is just beginning. Very heavy rain falling at the moment (10:10 am) at the PWC.

[vbhoutex]

So far only 0.48" at my house in the last 24 hrs. To say the least I am expecting a lot more in the next 24 hrs. I have one friend up in the DFW area who had 4.91" in her gauge this am.

[weatherdude1108]

Just 0.08-inch at my place when I left for work this morning. Drove into a nice downpour on the way to work! I do think it is just beginning too, especially as the front eases its way on in. The hill country has already received upwards of 5+ inches in spots! Perfect location for our watersheds (for the Austin and surrounding areas). I honestly don't know where exactly the rain should be to benefit the lakes the greatest. I know somewhere in the hill country east and south of a line from Fredericksburg to San Saba. The slower the front, the better IMO!

[weatherdude1108]

Here is the LCRA River Report from this morning.

"Rainfall in the upper basin for the last 24 hours has ranged from trace amounts to over 4.5 inches in other locations. It is expected that there will likely be some rise seen on the Highland Lakes, however, forecasts are not available at this time due to continued rainfall."

http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/river_report.html

[Tireman4]

From the HGX AFD...


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1013 AM CDT FRI SEP 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...
I THINK WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT WE`RE GONNA GET FOR THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS
OR SO. JUST PERIODS OF SHRA & ISO TSRA STREAMING IN FROM THE
GULF. MAY SEE A BREAK OF SUN FOR 10-15 MINUTES BUT JUST ENOUGH TO
DESTABILIZE ATMOS FOR MORE RAIN TO DEVELOP. THIS STUFF IS MOVING
SO DON`T ANTICIPATE MANY ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM THOUGH WE COULD
SEE SOME LOCALIZED SWATHS OF 1-3" ACCUMULATIONS.

BY LATE AFTN & EARLY EVENING THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG
CLOSE AND INTO NRN PARTS OF SE TX. THIS IS WHEN WE`LL GET MORE
CONCERNED REGARDING POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT AS THE BOUNDARY WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM. JET STRUCTURE BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE WITH TIME TOO.

WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON TRENDS ESP NORTH OF A COLUMBUS-
LIVINGSTON LINE REGARDING POSSIBLE FF WATCH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
ALL OF SE TX CAN TAKE A LOT OF RAIN BUT PROBABLY NOT THE VERY
HEAVY/SHORT DURATIONS THAT MANY TIMES ARE ASSOCIATED W/ THESE TYPE
PATTERNS.

LATEST 12Z NAM12 IS MORE PROGRESSIVE W/ THE SWD MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT (7 PM-MIDNIGHT NORTHERN HALF OF CWA AND TO THE COAST AROUND
7AM SAT). THAT`D BE GOOD, BUT LET`S SEE WHAT THE OTHER MODELS HAVE
TO SAY BEFORE MAKING ANY SORT OF CHANGES.

CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD. JUST COSMETIC UPDATES THIS MORNING. 47



http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[aggiecutter]

As of 9am this morning, 5.25" of rain has fallen at my house. Another .5" to .75" has probably fallen since then. The rain started at around 10 last night. Looking at the latest radar(11:20), the rain should continue for at least another couple hours.

[ndale]

Just went out into the rain to check my guage, it show a half inch with radar showing heavier rain moving in from the west.

[Rgv20]

Looks like I'm going to have to wait to tonight for the Rain....HRRR is forecasting really heavy rain coming down the Rio Grande after midnight.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[northtxboy]

Well i got right at 2 inches since last night. fannin country seems to be in a dry spot or something. been raining to the north south east and west of us. i fell this morning on my way out to check the rain gauge. alot of my grass has died so lots of mud in the yard. so glad to see rain and there is a nice cool breeze comming out of the north.

[weatherdude1108]

POURING here at work with thunder in north Austin! Hoping it heads towards my house!

[Ntxw]

Most of the convective precip is just about over for North Texas above I-20, front is swinging through. Mostly light rain the rest of today probably. The major models gives us mid 50s for lows Sunday morning which would be the first since Spring.

Central, South, and SE Texas fun just getting going so to say. May it be a glorious afternoon down that way.

This rain event might frustrate some because mesoscale and training storms may dump 2-3 inches of rain and a county next door gets 0.75 but that's typical of many events. At least it will be a steady soaker for most to soak in and for the reservoirs, if everyone manages at least an inch I'll consider it a win.

WIN!