MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2428
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1155 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL/SERN IND...WCNTRL/SWRN OH AND NWRN/NCNTRL KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 151755Z - 152000Z
   
   TORNADO WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 20Z ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
   SRN/CNTRL IND...SWRN/WCNTRL OH AND PERHAPS NWRN/NCNTRL KY. 
   
   THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SRN IND AND CNTRL OH EARLY THIS AFTN
   AND SHOULD CONTINUE NWD TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN INDIANA AND INTO
   WCNTRL OH BY 21Z.  WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL DESTABILIZE THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG/S OF THE FRONT AND SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT...
   ESPECIALLY AS THE SWLY LLJ AXIS SHIFTS EWD LATER THIS AFTN.
   CHARACTER OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS SRN IND HAS ALREADY EVOLVED INTO
   DISCRETE CELLS.  VWP FROM WILMINGTON OH SHOWS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR PROFILE THAT WILL ONLY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTN/EVE.  DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE AND SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING
   WINDS AND TORNADOES.  MAIN TORNADO THREAT WILL BE AFTER 21-22Z.
   
   ..RACY.. 11/15/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...
   
   40498627 40838482 40558293 38478404 38038445 37638501
   37648576 37678637 38088629

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2429
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1234 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NRN MS...WRN TN...WRN KY...ECNTRL/SERN
   MO...CNTRL/SRN IL...SWRN IND
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 864...865...866...
   
   VALID 151834Z - 152030Z
   
   HIGH PROBABILITY FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL EXIST THROUGH AT LEAST
   22Z ACROSS EXTREME SERN MO...SRN IL...SWRN IND...WRN KY AND WRN TN.
   
   SFC LOW HAS MOVED INTO ECNTRL MO AS OF 18Z...JUST W OF KSTL.  THE
   WARM FRONT HAS ADVANCED INTO SRN IL AND SRN IND AHEAD OF THE LOW
   WITH A WARM/HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER NOW IN PLACE OVER ALL OF SERN
   MO...SRN IL...SWRN IND SWD INTO THE LWR MS VLY.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED
   TO TRACK INTO CNTRL IL BY LATE AFTN...WITH THE WARM FRONT CONTINUING
   NWD INTO THE I-70 CORRIDOR.  A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS SRN
   MO AND AR THROUGH THE AFTN.
   
   TSTMS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS ERN AR HAVE INTENSIFIED
   RAPIDLY ACROSS THE MS VLY AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL
   THETA-E AXIS.  OTHER STORMS HAVE ALSO INTENSIFIED FROM NEAR KSTL
   SWWD INTO CNTRL AR ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. 
   
   STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES EXIST FROM THE MEMPHIS AREA NWD
   INTO SERN MO...SRN IL EWD INTO SWRN IND...FAR W KY.  PAH/MEM VWPS
   SHOW 0-1KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS AND 0-3KM SRH OF 300-500
   M2/S2...MORE THAN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG TORNADOES.  GIVEN THE
   EVOLUTION INTO DISCRETE CELLS NOTED ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL
   TROUGH...IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL
   EXIST FROM ALONG THE MS RVR FROM MEMPHIS NWD INTO SRN IL...THEN EWD
   INTO SRN IND...FAR W KY AND WRN TN THROUGH 22Z.
   
   FARTHER W AND S...THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE EWD.  THE
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES HAVE RELAXED SOMEWHAT OWING TO A
   WEAKENING/VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS.  BUT...THEY WILL REMAIN STRONG
   ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIXED MODE OF DISCRETE CELLS/SHORT LINES WITH
   DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLD TORNADO THREAT ACROSS CNTRL/SRN AR ALONG THE
   FRONT.
   
   ..RACY.. 11/15/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...ILX...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...
   
   34079329 36589165 38039111 39119099 40158957 40298803
   39578700 38528638 36138747 33358907 33209156

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2430
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0130 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN/IA/EXTREME WRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 151930Z - 160030Z
   
   ...AREAS OF LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA
   WITH RAIN GRADUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS SERN MN/WRN WI LATE THIS
   AFTN...
   
   SFC ANALYSIS FROM 19Z INDICATES SFC LOW JUST WEST OF STL WITH AN
   INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWWD TO NEAR DSM/MWM/DTL. WARM FRONT IS
   MOVING NWD ACROSS CNTRL IL/NRN IND INTO SRN LOWER MI. VERY STRONG
   MID LEVEL JET NOW ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
   100 KT BY EARLY EVENING AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES
   ACROSS NRN IL/LAKE MI TONIGHT. STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS /NEAR 1-2 MB
   PER HOUR/ ARE NOTED ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL. 
   
   ALTHOUGH CURRENT TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW /PER
   LATEST 850MB TEMPERATURES/ A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AT THE SFC WILL
   PROMOTE RAIN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS AFTN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
   THE ETA SUGGEST RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW FROM THE TWIN CITIES
   SWD TO RST/ALO BETWEEN 21-23Z. SNOW MAY BEGIN EARLIER AT SLIGHTLY
   HIGHER ELEVATIONS /IE MS RIVER BLUFFS/ OWING TO THE SHALLOW WARM
   LAYER. BECAUSE THE STRONGEST DYNAMIC LIFT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
   AFTER 16/00Z...SNOW RATES INITIALLY WILL REMAIN AOB 1 INCH PER HOUR.
   THE HEAVIEST SNOWS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL
   PORTIONS OF WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI. VERY STRONG WINDS HAVE
   DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...SO
   SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
   WHICH RECEIVE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 11/15/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...ABR...
   
   45219647 40599588 40569307 41939148 42889099 43739113
   44579158 45109242 45299299

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2431
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0132 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...CNTRL/SRN IND...WCNTRL/SWRN OH...NWRN
   KY...NWRN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 151932Z - 152100Z
   
   THERE WILL BE A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS THE OH
   VLY REGION FROM SRN IL/NWRN TN EWD INTO CNTRL/SRN IND... WCNTRL/SWRN
   OH AND NWRN KY.  TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF WWS
   865/866 BY 21Z.
   
   A 999 MB LOW WAS LOCATED JUST NE OF KSTL AT 19Z.  THE WARM FRONT HAS
   JUMPED TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN INDIANA AND IS MOVING INTO WCNTRL OH
   ATTM.  BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ALONG/S OF
   THE FRONT WITH MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG NOSING NWD INTO THE OH/TN
   VLYS.  PRESSURE FALLS HAVE ALSO BEEN INCREASING WITHIN THE WARM
   SECTOR ACROSS THE OH VLY.
   
   PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF TSTMS INTENSIFIED FROM SRN IL INTO WRN TN AS IT
   MOVED INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS WITH NUMEROUS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
   NOTED. OVERLAY OF 18Z RAOB DATA AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE
   STRONGEST CROSS-OVER BETWEEN SLY H85 WINDS AND THE WSWLY H5 WINDS
   EXISTS ACROSS SRN IND/NWRN KY/SWRN OH AT MID-AFTN.  LATEST VWP FROM
   PAH/EVANSVILLE/WILMINGTON OHIO SHOWS IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
   PROFILES /0-1KM SHEAR 35+ KTS/ AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS
   WITHIN SERN QUADRANT OF THE SFC LOW/PRESSURE FALL AXIS.  DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS AND MIXED MODES OF LINE SEGMENTS/ DISCRETE CELLS WILL
   REMAIN LIKELY DOWNSTREAM INTO SRN IND...NWRN KY...WRN TN AND
   SWRN/WCNTRL OH WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES AND
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..RACY.. 11/15/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...
   
   38558996 40028708 40408473 40348310 39938280 39028337
   37958471 35918786 35958934 37258918

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2432
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0255 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...NWRN AL...MIDDLE/WRN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 152055Z - 152200Z
   
   A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY EAST OF WT 865 TO INCLUDE
   MIDDLE TN AND PARTS OF NWRN AL.  THIS NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY REPLACE
   PARTS OF WT 865 TO EXTEND IT IN DURATION ACROSS PARTS OF WRN TN AND
   NRN MS.
   
   LLJ/UPPER JET AXES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD THIS EVENING ATOP A
   MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL
   LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS ACROSS WRN TN THIS AFTN AND THEY SHOULD MOVE
   INTO MIDDLE TN LATER THIS AFTN.  OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP
   ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN MS.  LOW-DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS/LEWPS WITH
   TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
   
   ..RACY.. 11/15/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...
   
   35088599 33998677 32988760 33219100 36558901 36588703
   36578488 36058523

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2433
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0317 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LA AND SWRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 867...
   
   VALID 152117Z - 152245Z
   
   THE MAJORITY OF THE MASS CONVERGENCE WAS LOCATED N OF THE REGION
   THIS AFTN.  BUT...MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE
   CNTRL PLAINS TROUGH AND INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-AMPLITUDE EJECTING NEWD
   FROM THE UPPER TX COAST...HAVE BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR TSTMS.  LATEST
   MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING FROM
   CNTRL LA NEWD INTO CNTRL MS.  TSTMS SEEM TO BE FAVORING A
   PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS FROM THE MS DELTA SWWD TO THE UPPER TX
   COAST...WITH OTHER STORMS ALONG THE SURGING COLD FRONT ACROSS NCNTRL
   LA INTO ECNTRL TX.  GIVEN THE VEERING/WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL WIND
   FIELDS...HELICITY HAS RELAXED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
   THE TORNADO WATCH.  BUT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT
   FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IN AN OTHERWISE DOMINANT LINE
   SEGMENT ENVIRONMENT.  THUS...IT APPEARS THE MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL
   WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.  HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR TORNADOES WILL
   EXIST ACROSS NERN LA/SWRN MS NEWD INTO THE TN/OH VLYS THROUGH THE
   EVENING HOURS.
   
   ..RACY.. 11/15/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
   
   30519363 32849245 32808948 31089069 30469188

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2434
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0340 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IND...EXTREME SRN LWR MI AND NWRN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 152140Z - 152315Z
   
   THE TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS
   EVENING ACROSS NRN IND...EXTREME SRN LWR MI AND NWRN OH.  THIS AREA
   WILL BE MONITORED FOR A PSBL WW.
   
   WARMER AIR WAS WORKING NWD INTO NRN IND AND NRN OH LATE THIS AFTN AS
   LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER CNTRL IL.  PER SATL/RADAR...TSTMS HAVE
   INCREASED IN INTENSITY ACROSS NERN IND...WITH OTHER STORMS BEGINNING
   TO STRENGTHEN OVER ECNTRL IL.  GIVEN ORIENTATION OF THE SWLY LLJ
   AXIS...THE WARM AIR WILL LIKELY MAKE IT INTO SRN LWR MI LATER THIS
   EVENING...WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING/MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD TOWARD SRN LWR
   MI.  LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND
   TORNADOES.  STORMS THAT WILL INITIALLY BE ELEVATED...WILL LIKELY
   DEVELOP/EVOLVE INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER GIVEN THE RAPIDLY MODIFYING
   AIR MASS...INCREASING THE RISKS FOR TORNADOES/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..RACY.. 11/15/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...
   
   41088698 41918512 42378397 42298310 41328320 40988438

[Brent]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2436
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0620 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS AND AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 160020Z - 160115Z

A NEW WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF SRN MS AND MUCH
OF CNTRL AND NRN AL...TO THE EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 867 AND THE SRN
HALF OF TORNADO WATCH 869.

EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES AND BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST INTO LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS
FROM THE MS DELTA REGION NEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO NERN AL
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ALONG THE LINE...A
FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG SHEAR EVIDENT IN
EVENING RAOBS AND VWP DATA.

..CARBIN.. 11/16/2005

[WindRunner]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2437
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NE IA/MUCH OF WI/UPPER MI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 160056Z - 160700Z

...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY TONIGHT FROM SW AND CNTRL WI
INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI...

SFC LOW NOW DOWN TO 995MB NEAR CHICAGO WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY
DEEPEN AND LIFT NEWD TOWARD STURGEON BAY BY 06Z WITH STRONGEST
PRESSURE FALLS FOCUSED ACROSS ERN WI/WRN LAKE MI. ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL JET MAX WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 120 KT OVERNIGHT. LATEST
RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWS DEFORMATION BAND SETTING UP FROM ERN
IA/SWRN WI INTO NERN WI AND UPPER MI. PRECIPITATION HAS RECENTLY
CHANGED OVER TO SNOW ACROSS CNTRL WI PER LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS.
THE ETA FORECAST 2M TEMPS ARE LIKELY TOO WARM AS COMPARED TO LATEST
OBSERVED TEMPS. HOWEVER...CONTINUED DYNAMIC COOLING AND LOWERING SFC
WET BULB TEMPS WILL FAVOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

ETA/GFS SOLNS INDICATE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF LOW TRACK...FROM SWRN WI INTO UPPER MI.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT ONE OR MORE BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH
DEEP ASCENT OCCURRING FAVORABLE DENDRITIC ZONE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...WITH HEAVIER SNOW SPREADING
INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA AFTER 06Z. THIS FIRST MAJOR SNOW OF THE
YEAR WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NW WINDS...WHICH WILL CAUSE
BLOWING/DRIFTING OF NEW SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITY.

..TAYLOR.. 11/16/2005

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2438
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0751 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY/TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 160151Z - 160245Z
   
   A NEW WATCH IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN KY AND ERN TN WITHIN
   THE NEXT HOUR.
   
   SEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES AND DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST AT OVER 50KT AND INTO PARTS OF ERN KY
   AND NERN TN THROUGH LATE EVENING. WARM AND MOIST AIR IN ADVANCE OF
   VERY STRONG FORCING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE CONTINUING THREAT OF
   ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AS THE SQUALL LINE MOVE ACROSS THE
   CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 11/16/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...
   
   35708464 36728501 38258383 38208291 38238198 35838305
   35258425 35428456

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2439
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0806 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LOWER MI...WRN/CNTRL OH
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 870...
   
   VALID 160206Z - 160330Z
   
   GRADUAL DECLINE IN STORM INTENSITY NOTED OVER PARTS OF OH/MI LATE
   THIS EVENING. SOME PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 870 MAY BE CLEARED WITHIN
   THE NEXT HOUR.
   
   LATEST TRENDS IN RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST A GRADUAL DECREASE IN STORM
   INTENSITY ACROSS NRN/WRN SECTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 870. HOWEVER...
   DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND FORCING ACROSS THE
   WATCH AREA REMAIN FORMIDABLE. LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA DEPICTED
   WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN MI EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE. DIAGNOSTIC
   PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION WILL BE
   POSSIBLE FOR DISCRETE CELLS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
   WITHIN LARGER RAIN AREA. WITH COLD FRONT AND STRONG LARGE SCALE
   ASCENT STILL MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...DAMAGING
   WIND/TORNADO THREAT PERSISTS AT PRESENT.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 11/16/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...
   
   41358456 42878415 42868272 41678278 41958156 40348209
   39758216 39278175 38308252 38308400 39618385 40748373

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2440
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0829 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MS...AL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 871...
   
   VALID 160229Z - 160400Z
   
   EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE CONTINUES EAST ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 871 THIS
   EVENING. GIVEN WELL-DEVELOPED AND DEEP COLD POOL THAT HAS EVOLVED
   BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION...AND THE PRESENCE OF MOIST AND
   MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE LINE...EXPECT STRONG
   UPDRAFTS TO BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT.
   
   SEVERAL BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG THE LINE ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   DAMAGING WINDS. BOWING LINE SEGMENT INTERSECTIONS WILL ALSO BE AREAS
   WHERE STORMS CAN ACQUIRE ROTATION AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT
   BE RULED OUT NEAR THESE FEATURES.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 11/16/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
   
   29909140 31229082 32828939 35028585 33108556 31878701
   30748935 30339014

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2441
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1018 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN/NRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 869...871...872...
   
   VALID 160418Z - 160445Z
   
   INTENSE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWS WILL MOVE
   EAST AND INTO TORNADO WATCH 872 WITHIN THE HOUR. SEVERE WEATHER
   POTENTIAL WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS MIDDLE TN AS THE STRONG FRONTAL
   PASSAGE OCCURS OVER THE REGION AND TORNADO WATCH 869 WILL EXPIRE AS
   SCHEDULED AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 11/16/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN...
   
   36588451 34668633 34998645 36608548

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2442
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1029 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...OH
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 870...
   
   VALID 160429Z - 160500Z
   
   LOW-TOPPED LINE OF STRONGER CELLS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH THE
   COLD FRONT INTO NWRN OH. HOWEVER...LACK OF CG LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
   WITH THIS CONVECTION CONFIRMS THAT INSTABILITY REMAINS MEAGER ACROSS
   THE WATCH AREA. NONETHELESS...VERY INTENSE WIND FIELDS ARE NOTED ON
   CLE VWP AND A SEVERE WIND GUST OR BRIEF TORNADO STILL CANNOT BE
   ENTIRELY RULED OUT. WATCH 870 WILL EXPIRE AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR
   AND...BASED ON LATEST TRENDS...NO ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE ANTICIPATED
   OVER OH.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 11/16/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...
   
   39828221 40228340 41928333 41918264 41978147 41458156

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2443
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1107 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY/TN...NRN/CNTRL/SWRN AL...SERN MS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 871...872...
   
   VALID 160507Z - 160600Z
   
   EXTENSIVE PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
   CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND TRAILS SSWWD FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE MS
   DELTA. THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN CG ELECTRICAL
   ACTIVITY WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
   HOURS...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO A STEADY DECLINE IN INSTABILITY AHEAD
   OF THE LINE OF FORCING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS STORMS IN
   WATCH 872 MOVE ACROSS THE WRN FOOTHILLS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN
   APPALACHIANS. WIND FIELDS...HOWEVER...REMAIN VERY INTENSE ACROSS THE
   WATCH AREA AND A FEW SEVERE GUSTS ARE STILL A POSSIBILITY.
   
   FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE GREATER MOISTURE EXISTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
   ACROSS WATCH 871...WEAKER LARGE SCALE FORCING AND DIURNAL
   STABILIZATION WERE CONTRIBUTING TO A DEMISE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL
   ACROSS THESE AREAS. STRONG GUSTS MAY STILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF
   THE SQUALL LINE BUT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE
   DIMINISHING.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 11/16/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...
   
   31168792 31148918 32968758 35018565 36028501 38168370
   38218199 35028407 34968548 33208559

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2444
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE WI/UPPER MI
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 160530Z - 160930Z
   
   MDT/OCNLY HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE SPREADING N/NE ACROSS FAR NE
   WI/UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HINDERED BY
   MARGINAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES...SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR WILL BE
   COMMON...WITH 1.5 IN/HR POSSIBLE IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS.
   
   00Z UPPER AIR DIAGNOSTICS/SATELLITE IMAGERY FEATURES PROGRESSIVELY
   STACKED/CLOSED LOW ACROSS FAR ERN WI/LAKE MI. AS EVIDENT IN WATER
   VAPOR IMAGERY...SURGING DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND ERN PERIPHERY OF
   THIS CYCLONE IS SERVING TO INCREASE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY LATE THIS
   EVENING...WITH CG LIGHTNING HAVING DISTINCTLY INCREASED OVER THE
   PAST TWO HOURS ACROSS THE ERN MI U.P. AND LAKE MI.
   
   RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED BAND OF SNOW HAS PERSISTED FROM NEAR OSHKOSH
   NWD TO THE RHINELANDER/IRON MOUNTAIN AREAS THIS EVENING...WITH
   DYNAMIC COOLING/SUFFICIENTLY HIGH PRECIP RATES PROMOTING SNOW
   PRECIP-TYPE. COINCIDENT WITH NEWD TRACK OF CYCLONE...THIS BAND OF
   SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION N/NE ACROSS FAR NE WI/UPPER MI
   OVERNIGHT. WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC LAYER/MODEST MID LEVEL
   FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...SNOW RATES OF 1.0-1.5 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE
   IN THE MORE INTENSE N-S ORIENTED BANDS...ESPECIALLY AS
   AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY FURTHERS TENDENCY FOR MESOSCALE
   ENHANCEMENT.
   
   ..GUYER.. 11/16/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...
   
   46788751 46278689 45488758 44498811 44778901 45328905
   45708923 46058928 47128868

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2445
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0203 AM CST WED NOV 16 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WV/WRN VA/FAR ERN TN/WRN NC/WRN SC/NRN AND CENTRAL
   GA/ERN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 160803Z - 161000Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIMITED/LOCAL...BUT MAY PERSIST
   FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS CONVECTIVE LINE PROGRESSES EWD.  NEW WW NOT
   ANTICIPATED ATTM...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE AIRMASS AND
   ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
   
   LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING EWD
   ACROSS AL AND THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS ATTM...THOUGH RADAR AND
   LIGHTNING IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW WEAKENING TREND WITH TIME.
    THIS IS AT LEAST IN PART DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY -- PARTICULARLY
   FROM SRN AL NNEWD WHERE LESS THAN 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE REMAINS.
   
   
   DESPITE THIS...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA -- AHEAD OF LARGE/ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH.
   THEREFORE...A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITHIN STRONGER SEGMENTS ALONG
   CONVECTIVE LINE.
   
   ..GOSS.. 11/16/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...BMX...
   
   33008576 37688232 39478049 39457926 38877850 34388213
   332283637128868

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2446
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0438 AM CST WED NOV 16 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL NY/CENTRAL PA/ERN WV
   PANHANDLE...PARTS OF MD...AND NRN AND WRN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 161038Z - 161245Z
   
   LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN PA/ERN WV AND FAR
   SWRN VA ATTM.  WW IS BEING CONSIDERED...THOUGH NEED FOR ISSUANCE
   REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM.
   
   LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION -- DEVOID OF CG LIGHTNING FROM CENTRAL
   WV NWD -- CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ATTM.
    ALL MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW NEUTRAL TO
   MINIMALLY-BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT...ABOVE A SLIGHTLY-STABLE BOUNDARY
   LAYER. THOUGH FORCING MECHANISM REMAINS UNCLEAR AS CONVECTIVE LINE
   REMAINS WELL AHEAD OF FRONT -- AND POORLY-SIMULATED BY ALL
   OPERATIONAL MODELS...CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN A SEMI-ORGANIZED
   LINE FOR SEVERAL HOURS -- MOVING EWD AT 35 TO 40 KT.
   
   WITH 60-PLUS KT FLOW INDICATED AT 850 MB ACROSS THIS
   REGION...LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS AT THE
   SURFACE THUS FAR APPEARS TO BE THE SLIGHTLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
   CONVECTION IS NOW MOVING THROUGH BOUNDARY LAYER FEATURING DEWPOINTS
   IN THE MID 50S.  HOWEVER UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS ARE OBSERVED
   ALONG AND E OF THE APPALACHIAN FRONT. THIS SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME
   POTENTIAL THAT THIS SLIGHTLY-LESS-STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY
   FACILITATE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS REACHING THE SURFACE.  THOUGH THIS
   APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY LOW-PROBABILITY SCENARIO ATTM...WE WILL
   CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THIS SCENARIO AND POSSIBLE NEED FOR WW WITHIN
   THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 11/16/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...RLX...
   
   41967838 43247789 43287622 42027585 40287636 37337791
   36957943 37038055 38058023 39537855

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2447
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0944 AM CST WED NOV 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN PA...ERN NY...WRN INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS

VALID 161544Z - 161715Z



ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH NARROW LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTIVE LINES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
EXTREME NERN PA...ERN NY AND WRN INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.

STRONG ZONE OF DEEP LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONTARIO UPPER
LOW WAS SHIFTING QUICKLY NEWD INTO QUEBEC LATE THIS MORNING.
BUT...SRN PERIPHERY OF THE FORCING WAS GRAZING PARTS OF THE AREA.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY BANDS OF CONVECTION ACROSS
CNTRL NY SWD INTO CNTRL PA THAT HAVE SHOWN A MARGINAL INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AS THIS ENHANCED UVV MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE REGION.

VSBL SATL SHOWS SOME BINOVC ACROSS MAINLY ERN NY INTO WRN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE LOW-LEVELS WILL PROBABLY DESTABILIZE INTO THE AFTN
OWING TO HEATING. THUS...THE BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FURTHER
INTENSIFY...ESPECIALLY AS THEY MOVES INTO ERN NY IN A FEW HOURS.
STRONG WSWLY COMPONENT TO THE MEAN WIND COULD ENCOURAGE BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS AND INCREASE THE RISK OF A ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MAIN
NEGATIVE WILL BE THE OVERALL LIMITED DEEP FORCING THAT IS TYPICALLY
OBSERVED IN A WELL-DEFINED NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND THAT
PRODUCES DAMAGING WIND. BUT...GIVEN VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS AND
SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE NON-ZERO.

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2448
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1133 AM CST WED NOV 16 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MID-ATLANTIC REGION FROM SERN NY SWD INTO DELMARVA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 161733Z - 161900Z
   
   THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK OF ISOLD-SCT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   ASSOCIATED WITH TSTMS THROUGH THE AFTN FROM SERN NY SWD ACROSS ERN
   PA...NJ...DE...CNTRL/ERN MD AND NRN VA.
   
   MESOANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO CROSS THE CREST OF THE
   APPALACHIANS FROM CNTRL NY SWD ACROSS CNTRL PA AND WRN VA.  A NARROW
   BAND OF CONVECTION EXISTS 40-50 MILES EAST OF THE FRONT AND SEEMS TO
   BE INTENSIFYING BASED ON COOLING CLOUD TOPS PER VSBL SATL IMAGERY.
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE GRADUALLY STEEPENING AHEAD OF THIS BAND
   WHERE BINOVC HAVE BEEN NOTED THROUGH THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. 
   
   SRN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPER LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE
   THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE AFTN...AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER
   FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL RAINBAND.  COMBINATION OF
   AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND INCREASED UVV WILL INCREASE THE
   POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS THROUGH THE AFTN.  STRONG WSWLY FLOW THROUGH THE
   COLUMN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SMALL SCALE LEWPS/BOWS TO DEVELOP AND
   ISOLD-SCT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..RACY.. 11/16/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
   
   38547775 39757671 41257580 41357474 41167341 38567491
   38397633