Texas Spring 2022

[Iceresistance]

Just looked at the SPC Mesoanalysis & I've noticed several things already

CAPE is higher than expected, approaching 2,500 J/kg in Southern Texas compared to just over 2,000 J/kg.
Supercell Composite is ridiculous, the RAP model (The one they use for the Mesoanalysis on some of the thermodynamics, the HRRR is used for radar) expected a SCP of 16 in parts of Southern/SE Texas, it's at 20 just to the NW of Corpus Christi

[Haris]

Most recent HRRR filling in the line west now up and down 35 from OK to Austin. Dry line a bit slower as usual than modeled. More activity in San Angelo than modeled too right now. Buckle up

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Clouds are beginning to break across SA.

Is this bad for us or good for us?

[txtwister78]

Clouds are beginning to break across SA.

Is this bad for us or good for us?

Bad if we get storms to fire just west...would be big hail producers.

[Cpv17]

Clouds are beginning to break across SA.

Is this bad for us or good for us?

I’m not him but the sun is definitely not your friend on a day where your area is supposed to receive severe weather. It just helps destabilize and energize the atmosphere even more.

[Brent]

Clouds are beginning to break across SA.

Is this bad for us or good for us?

I’m not him but the sun is definitely not your friend on a day where your area is supposed to receive severe weather. It just helps destabilize and energize the atmosphere even more.

Yeah you never want to see sun on a higher threat day like today especially

[cheezyWXguy]

Just had a storm pass through Dallas with a surprising amount of juice. Now the sun is trying to peek out…

[Iceresistance]

Mesoscale Discussion suggest a Watch Likely for Northern & NW Texas in the next 1-3 hours

[Edwards Limestone]

FWIW, NWS has reduced storm chances to 50% this afternoon in my forecast area (north-central SA). Was 70% this AM.

[Ntxw]

Mesoscale Discussion suggest a Watch Likely for Northern & NW Texas in the next 1-3 hours

Here is the discussion. The line west of Abilene pivoting E-NE should trigger the watch.

Mesoscale Discussion 0291
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

Areas affected...Northwest/North-Central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 211829Z - 212030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this
afternoon, with an attendant threat for hail and damaging wind
gusts. Given the anticipated severe coverage, a watch will likely be
needed across portions of the region this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture continues to increase across
northwest/north-central TX. Recent surface analysis shows upper 50s
dewpoints now into SPS and vicinity, with lows 60s across western
portions of North TX. The arcing band of thunderstorms in SWW
continues to move quickly east-northeastward into this area.
Mesoanalysis shows that little to no convective inhibition remains
and SWW recently gusted to 30 kt, suggesting an increasing potential
for surface-based storms. The dryline remains west of this region,
but the increasing large-scale forcing for ascent (attendant to the
exit region of the mid-level jet) and continued eastward
acceleration of the dryline/front should promote additional
thunderstorm development as the air mass further destabilizes. The
strong southerly mid-level flow will promote a southerly deep-layer
vertical shear vector, and this line-parallel orientation will
contribute to a predominantly linear mode for much of the region.
The only exception is across southwestern portions of North TX
(roughly south of I-20 and west of US-281) where stronger
southeasterly low-level flow could result in a few more discrete
cells.

Steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to hail as the main
severe threat, although the predominantly linear mode will likely
foster some stronger wind gusts as well. Given the anticipated
severe coverage, a watch will likely be needed across portions of
the region this afternoon.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 03/21/2022

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON 33520046 34210024 34359914 33769746 32869716 32059793
32339912 32980009 33520046

[Ntxw]

There's also some training going on in Dallas and Collin county so probably some flash flood activity.

[HockeyTx82]

Mesoscale Discussion suggest a Watch Likely for Northern & NW Texas in the next 1-3 hours

Yup for a more linear mode. I'll take that over a discreet Supercell

[ElectricStorm]

18z HRRR with a monster supercell

[Iceresistance]

Severe Thunderstorm watch up for NW Texas & Southern & SW Oklahoma, here we go

[txtwister78]

Look at that sounding. "Special sounding" out Texas A&M this afternoon.... oh my hodograph!

[cheezyWXguy]

Mesoscale discussion coming out now for tornado watch in north and central texas

[funster]

That's a large area :-O

 https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1505988688823521288

[Iceresistance]

2nd check at the SPC Mesoanalysis, CAPE is higher than expected across most of Texas, up to 3000 J/kg in Far Southern Texas

Bulk Shear is higher in South-Central & Southern Texas, up to 75 knots at it's peak.

Supercell Composite is the same value (16) compared to the expected one, but it's more spread out.

The SHIP is also more favorable for Dangerously large hail, up to 3 inches of Hail instead of 2-2.5 inches from the RAP (NOTE: Not the forecasted Hail Size, it's the instability that is capable of producing Hail up to a certain size)

Very concerned that this could overperform.

(Sorry, I'm really worried for Southern, Eastern, & SE Texas)

[Haris]

2nd check at the SPC Mesoanalysis, CAPE is higher than expected across most of Texas, up to 3000 J/kg in Far Southern Texas

Bulk Shear is higher in South-Central & Southern Texas, up to 75 knots at it's peak.

Supercell Composite is the same value (16) compared to the expected one, but it's more spread out.

The SHIP is also more favorable for Dangerously large hail, up to 3 inches of Hail instead of 2-2.5 inches from the RAP (NOTE: Not the forecasted Hail Size, it's the instability that is capable of producing Hail up to a certain size)

Very concerned that this could overperform like a High Risk situation.

No this is far far far from a high risk situation. Please refrain from such language

[Edwards Limestone]

FWIW, NWS has reduced storm chances to 50% this afternoon in my forecast area (north-central SA). Was 70% this AM.

Down to 30% here. Good luck to everyone north and east! That sounding from CLL is incredible.