Texas Summer 2019

[Haris]

The ukmet hits Galveston(and as a significant hurricane at that) so we definitely arent out of it yet

Did you see this “new” 18z Euro run?

Yeah if it doesnt get picked up quickly its coming to Texas probably

Not sure, gfs and cmc picking up on a mid level ridge over our area or just W of TX. Kind of a brick wall so it curves NE where the weakness is in the after of the trough.

Argh. So many things have to happen for this darn thing to come here lol.

[Brent]

Euro went back to the border a huge west shift since the 12z was closer to Mississippi than Texas

looks to be going up the border, probably wouldn't help us much but maybe we can get the west trend going again?

oh and in the short term the 3km NAM plows a squall line through DFW tomorrow evening

[Haris]

If the euro shifts W like that come 12z, that'd be pretty huge. Headache of a forecast ahead. ugh

[Cpv17]

The majority of the eps is over Texas now. Massive shift west @0z.

[Portastorm]

Oh dear ... the 12z NAM 12km nearly takes "BARRY" into my county (Travis) by late Saturday. Should I be worried?

Stoopid NAM.

[weatherdude1108]

Oh dear ... the 12z NAM 12km nearly takes "BARRY" into my county (Travis) by late Saturday. Should I be worried?

Stoopid NAM.

http://i66.tinypic.com/2iw5ctd.jpg

Outlier?

[aggiecutter]

The NHC has the storm just south of Texarkana on Monday morning.

[Cerlin]

The NAM is very clearly not built for these tropical systems lol

[Brent]

The ukmet is south of Galveston now

Way south like Matagorda

[CaptinCrunch]

Models are all over the place because it's still just a LPS, but I have my money on a Beaumont to Port Arthur low end hurricane Saturday

[Brent]

Looks like the Euro went east again

These models cant make up their mind

Hopefully once we get a defined center we'll have some better consistency

[weatherdude1108]

I found a good article on weather models. It's over a year old (May 2018), but still a good, short read.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/cap ... 72b62cd759

[Cpv17]

Looks like the Euro went east again

These models cant make up their mind

Hopefully once we get a defined center we'll have some better consistency

Euro initialized pretty far north.

[Haris]

EPS have substantially shifted E into LA.

Definitely doesn’t look like Austin will get anything now. I tried the best I could to find any hope but the ukmet is
it now

[rwfromkansas]

It seems like if there is a chance of tropical storms here, bet on it missing to the east. That’s where it tends to go.

[Brent]

It seems like if there is a chance of tropical storms here, bet on it missing to the east. That’s where it tends to go.

It makes sense though Atlantic storms are usually getting swept up in the jet stream by the time they reach the Northern Gulf

Now the epac on the other hand when they start recurving in a couple months those seem to have more widespread impacts here

[funster]

Meanwhile, some storms have crossed into TX from OK. Maybe they will make it here?

[Brent]

Meanwhile, some storms have crossed into TX from OK. Maybe they will make it here?

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Denton

Though I'm not sure how its radar indicated since FWS radar is down this week

[Cpv17]

I don’t think southeast TX is in the clear yet.. honestly not even close to being in the clear imo. This could very easily still come our way so we can’t let our guard down. That ridge is strong and still could push it west. I’m skeptical of the abrupt northern turn.

[funster]

LOL! Different radar source? NWS says radar from TDFW? Also -> 70 mph gusts with this storm.

 https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1149078938033020928