Texas Spring 2016

[EF-5bigj]

How do you think this La Niña could affect tornado season?

[Brent]

FWD gives some hope for something to talk about:

IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH WE ARE
HEADED FOR A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF THE MONTH.

As far as La Nina tornado seasons go... well... I can't speak for Texas itself, but usually nationally, it's quite busy. 1998/1999, 2010/2011... I am wondering about how slow April is starting off though... this is peak season back in dixie alley.

[TheProfessor]

How do you think this La Niña could affect tornado season?

I don't think it's going to have any effect on this season. (I'm not saying this season will be good or bad) It would be spring 2017 where you would see the affects of the La Nina if it does develop.

[Tireman4]

Tornado Season...2010/2011....oh yeah..this one happened. ( Very very eerie watching it on the The Weather Channel)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cy8LtrCn438

[Brent]

How do you think this La Niña could affect tornado season?

I don't think it's going to have any effect on this season. (I'm not saying this season will be good or bad) It would be spring 2017 where you would see the affects of the La Nina if it does develop.

Correct. Time is running out on it to affect this spring much... it's gonna be more for next season.

Of course, last year we had a record strong el nino and a record number of tornadoes here in Texas so... I don't think you can make too many assumptions.

Tornado Season...2010/2011....oh yeah..this one happened. ( Very very eerie watching it on the The Weather Channel)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cy8LtrCn438

I was in Alabama that day... it's not the type of day I like remembering much even though it's etched in my head... can't believe it's gonna be 5 years soon.

and of course it was followed less than a month later by Joplin...

[Tireman4]

Yeah Brent, I remember watching it on television. I was also listening to the Paul Finebaum Show (on Sirius). It was even surreal hearing him talk about it....I know the winds were howling from the Gulf that day. It was dry and warm in Houston that day...

[TarrantWx]

How do you think this La Niña could affect tornado season?

I found this article yesterday about how the ENSO phase impacts the following severe weather season. It's a good read. Generally, the season following an El Nino winter has a later peak (May into June) versus a La Nina winter which has an earlier peak.

http://www.ustornadoes.com/2016/03/30/how-does-el-nino-la-nina-or-la-nada-impact-the-following-tornado-season/

[EF-5bigj]

Whenever I hear La Niña I just think 4/27/11. I'm in Dixie alley so I hope it won't be bad this year but you never know.

[TheProfessor]

How do you think this La Niña could affect tornado season?

I don't think it's going to have any effect on this season. (I'm not saying this season will be good or bad) It would be spring 2017 where you would see the affects of the La Nina if it does develop.

Correct. Time is running out on it to affect this spring much... it's gonna be more for next season.

Of course, last year we had a record strong el nino and a record number of tornadoes here in Texas so... I don't think you can make too many assumptions.

Tornado Season...2010/2011....oh yeah..this one happened. ( Very very eerie watching it on the The Weather Channel)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cy8LtrCn438

I was in Alabama that day... it's not the type of day I like remembering much even though it's etched in my head... can't believe it's gonna be 5 years soon.

and of course it was followed less than a month later by Joplin...

Yeah tornado season isn't so cut and dry with El Nino's and La Nina's. I don't know how many tornadoes there will be this year in Texas, but all it takes is 1 tornado to make it a bad season, if we count the December 28th tornado as this season then it's already been a bad one.

[Ntxw]

El Nino tends to favor more localized outbreaks, quantity in Texas. This due to the fact there are just more chances with the high number of systems moving through. Such as last season, but none were high risk days.

La Ninas on a national scale are more likely to produce big outbreaks with your classic high risk days. But the opportunities are farther inbetween. Quality outbreaks over quantity. You can easily name some big memorable outbreaks just rattling off recent springs coming from La Nina especially after the switch from El Nino.

1998-1999 Nina-May 3rd
2007-2008-Super Tuesday
2010-2011-Dixie and Joplin
2016-2017...?

So yeah the spring to watch is 2017. Likely another huge outbreak to add on that list.

[EF-5bigj]

2011 was just a insane year tornado wise although I'll admit I wasn't into weather then but after I became more intune with weather and did research and a skywarn class along with generally looking into Dixie Alley tornado history. Plus my county had EF-5 tornado nearby in Philadelphia,MS and we where actually under a tornado emergency that day. Only after the 4/27/11 outbreak did I realize how big it was

[Brent]

Signs of weather on the GFS... next Monday and Tuesday:



oh and day 10 and beyond it rains daily until the end of the run at DFW

[lukem]

How many days between day 10 and the end of the run?

[TheProfessor]

How many days between day 10 and the end of the run?

The GFS run goes ot to 16 days , so 6 days between day 10 and the end of the run.

[wxman57]

How many days between day 10 and the end of the run?

Every GFS run is indicating something completely different beyond about 5 days. I wouldn't trust it.

[Brent]

How many days between day 10 and the end of the run?

Every GFS run is indicating something completely different beyond about 5 days. I wouldn't trust it.

True... but it's showing signs of a wet pattern at the very least. On the 6z it rains from day 8 to day 16.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Im with Ntx. We need to get a good head start going into the summer with lots of rain or steady rains. Almost any summer could be a threat or long periods with no rain no matter what kind of season. A bit worried about the later half of the hurricane season for sure

Are we going to have a neutral period at all this year? That's what could be scary during the Hurricane season. Andrew, Katrina, Rita, Wilma,

Right now I don't think the El Nino will collapse straight into La Nina, so I think we will spend some time in neutral. According to my professor (who does extensive hurricane research) La Nina's themselves aren't always conducive to Hurricanes (This might only be in a certain area of the Atlantic or Caribbean, I can't remember) but he says that La Ninas can produce the same wind shear environments that El Ninos do, just in the opposite direction. Of course the position of the La Nina and strength can and probably does have a major factor on the tropics just like El Nino.

All of those strong Hurricanes were during the neutral periods in their respective years, of course 2005 being the most famous. If Neutral hits Aug/Sep, things could get extremely dicey. Actually kind of also planning ( or not) my usual late summer vacation based on this.

[Ntxw]

Well no ENSO year goes from El Nino, flips to La Nina or vice versa immediately. It doesn't work that way. The ocean does things very slowly over months and months. 2016 will go down as a la Nina year. There will always be a "neutral" period between transitions it's just natural physics. NOAA and scientists/meteorologist signifies a "La Nina, Neutral, or El Nino" based on the predominate state during peak ENSO months generally from October through February or during NHEM winter and SHEM summer. Spring to Summer is often the "transition" period or weakening of the previous ENSO. The atmosphere the next few months will still reflect the lingering effects of the El Nino state already in place. Once the waters are sufficiently cold we will see a weather pattern response weeks after. More likely in the fall. To truly get a "neutral" effect you must have neutral ENSO for most of the year, better if 2 years.

Such as in 2010 the El NIno ended around May but Nina was not declared until August or September.

[Ntxw]

The pattern soon will switch to wet mode. During the spring time a trough in the SW usually opens up the skies for us from the EPAC

[TheProfessor]

Are we going to have a neutral period at all this year? That's what could be scary during the Hurricane season. Andrew, Katrina, Rita, Wilma,

Right now I don't think the El Nino will collapse straight into La Nina, so I think we will spend some time in neutral. According to my professor (who does extensive hurricane research) La Nina's themselves aren't always conducive to Hurricanes (This might only be in a certain area of the Atlantic or Caribbean, I can't remember) but he says that La Ninas can produce the same wind shear environments that El Ninos do, just in the opposite direction. Of course the position of the La Nina and strength can and probably does have a major factor on the tropics just like El Nino.

All of those strong Hurricanes were during the neutral periods in their respective years, of course 2005 being the most famous. If Neutral hits Aug/Sep, things could get extremely dicey. Actually kind of also planning ( or not) my usual late summer vacation based on this.

This upcoming hurricane season is looking like a tricky forecast, I'm not expert but from what I'm seeing from other pro and amateur mets that have more knowledge than me is that if the E-Pac stays above normal around Mexico then the E-Pac season could be above average, limiting hurricanes in parts of the Caribbean due to shear and subsidence. Of course in 2005 a lot of the major impacts didn't actually move through the Caribbean so that could be something to look at even if the E-Pac stays above normal. It's always great to plan ahead anyways, I've never let my family go on a tropical vacation past July anyways lol. The one time we went to an Island past July was when we went to Hawaii in August 2007 in which a Cat 4 hurricane came fairly close to the Big Island.