MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2368
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CST MON OCT 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN TX..SRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 838...

VALID 311953Z - 312130Z



BROKEN SQUALL LINE CONTINUES MOVING SEWD AT AROUND 30 KT ACROSS
CENTRAL TX...WITH A MORE EWD MOTION OVER NERN TX INTO FAR SWRN AR.
WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION...SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED
TO PERSIST WITHIN WW FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. CONTINUE VALID PORTION
OF WW.

DESPITE THE MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY APPARENT INTO E-CENTRAL/NERN TX
AND SRN AR...ONGOING/VIGOROUS CONVECTION INDICATES BUOYANCY FIELDS
ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...ORIENTATION OF WLY MEAN WIND VECTORS AND MORE N-S
ORIENTED BOW ECHOES INDICATE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN QUITE
HIGH WITH EWD MOVING STORMS ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE LINE.
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE 20 DEGREE SFC T-TD SPREADS/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED INTO NWRN LA/SRN AR. /REFERENCE WW
839 JUST ISSUED FOR THIS ACTIVITY./

LATEST INSTABILITY ANALYSES INDICATE AIR MASS IS NOW WEAKLY CAPPED
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF ADVANCING SQUALL LINE WITH MLCAPE
AROUND 1000 J/KG INTO MUCH OF ERN TX. PAT PROFILER ALSO INDICATES
MODEST SHEAR WITHIN WARM SECTOR /0-3 KM SHEAR NEAR 30 KT AND 0-6 KM
SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KT/. SEWD MOTION OF COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNDERCUTTING STORMS DEVELOPING INTO CENTRAL AND
SERN TX THIS AFTERNOON...GIVEN WLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT. THIS MAY
LIMIT SUSTAINED WIND DAMAGE THREAT ALONG SWRN PORTION OF SQUALL
LINE...THOUGH LARGE HAIL IS STILL EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER CORES.
IN ADDITION...BROAD REGION OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND WEAKENING CINH
IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD MOIST CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE LINE
ATTM...AND THESE STORMS MAY SUSTAIN A HAIL/WIND THREAT INTO THE

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2369
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CST MON OCT 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX/SWRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 312054Z - 312200Z



NEW WW WILL SOON FOR PORTIONS OF SERN TX/SWRN LA.

THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WITHIN AND AHEAD OF ONGOING SQUALL LINE CONTINUE
TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AXIS OF INSTABILITY REMAINS WEST
OF SABINE RIVER ATTM...AND QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT EWD EXTENT OF
GREATER INSTABILITY INTO WRN LA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...LATEST RUC
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 60+ SFC DEW POINTS...AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY...WILL DEVELOP INTO SWRN LA BY 03Z. STORMS WILL ALSO BE
SUSTAINED ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST THIS EVENING. GIVEN
DEGREE OF SHEAR AND EVEN MODEST INSTABILITY...EXPECT THREATS OF
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS. WW WILL
BE NEEDED SOON FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST INTO SWRN LA.

..EVANS.. 10/31/2005

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2370
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0510 PM CST MON OCT 31 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA THROUGH EXTREME SRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 839...
   
   VALID 312310Z - 010045Z
   
   THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR
   OR SO AS SQUALL LINE CONTINUES EWD THROUGH NRN LA. HOWEVER...THIS
   PART OF THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD UNDERGO A WEAKENING TREND AS IT MOVES
   INTO NERN LA. STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE OUT OF OR WEAKEN WITHIN WW 839
   BEFORE ITS EXPIRATION TIME OF 02Z.
   
   EARLY THIS EVENING A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM N CNTRL LA SWWD
   THROUGH SERN TX MOVING SEWD AT 30 KT. STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LINE
   NEXT COUPLE HOURS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE TX COAST AND INTO
   SWRN LA WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY EXISTS. FARTHER N ACROSS NRN
   LA...THE LINE WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AS IT
   MOVES EWD. MOREOVER...THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP NEWD TOWARD THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THIS EVENING WITH ONLY
   MODEST LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. GIVEN
   THESE LIMITING FACTORS...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
   ALONG THE NRN PORTION OF THE LINE AS IT CONTINUES EWD THROUGH NRN
   LA.
   
   ..DIAL.. 10/31/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...
   
   32529163 31439210 31409354 3280921

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2371
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0526 PM CST MON OCT 31 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S TX
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   
   VALID 312326Z - 010100Z
   
   STORMS ARE GAINING STRENGTH AS NOTED BY INCREASING LIGHTNING
   STRIKES/RECENT RADAR DATA ACROSS PORTIONS OF S TX...AND THERE EXISTS
   SOME POTENTIAL FOR SVR WEATHER. AIRMASS HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
   UNSTABLE THIS AFTN AS SFC TEMPS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE LOW/MID 80S
   WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 23Z
   SUGGEST MUCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1400 J/KG...SIMILAR TO SFC
   OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUC. IN ADDITION...EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR
   IS AOA 50 KT...WITH LATEST VAD WIND DATA FROM CORPUS CHRISTI
   INDICATING A VEERING PROFILE FROM LOW LEVELS. MAIN THREAT SEEMS TO
   EXIST FROM ALI TO BRO. AN ISOLD TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF A
   STORM COULD FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESENT
   IN AREA. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL/ISOLD STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
   POSSIBLE. SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
   AS COLD FRONT RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NW AND OVERTURNS
   THE AIRMASS.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 10/31/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...
   
   25889722 26489920 28489883 28929771 27269677 26319677

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2372
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0714 PM CST MON OCT 31 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TEXAS COASTAL AREA THROUGH SRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 840...
   
   VALID 010114Z - 010245Z
   
   PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST FROM S TX NEWD ALONG THE TEXAS
   COASTAL WATERS WITH A MORE LIMITED THREAT INTO SRN LA NEXT COUPLE
   HOURS. THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE EVENING...AND
   ANOTHER WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED E OF WW 840.
   
   SQUALL LINE FROM CNTRL LA SWWD ALONG THE TX COAST CONTINUES EWD AT
   AROUND 30 KT. THE MORE INTENSE STORMS ARE MOVING OFF THE TX COAST.
   WITH STRONGEST MID/UPPER FORCING REMAINING IN COOL SECTOR...THE
   RESPONSE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH ONLY A MODEST
   SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE PRE-CONVECTIVE WARM
   SECTOR. MOREOVER...WITH ONLY UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS RESIDING OVER THE
   NRN GULF...FURTHER NWD ADVECTION OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
   LIMITED. THIS SUGGESTS THE LA PORTION OF SQUALL LINE WILL ENCOUNTER
   INCREASINGLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
   EAST.
   
   ..DIAL.. 11/01/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...CRP...
   
   27599743 28739524 30029330 31029199 30029137 28979284
   27049705

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2373
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005
   
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...SERN IA...NRN IL...SRN WI
   
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
VALID 051821Z - 052045Z
   
TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN A BAND FROM NRN
MO/SRN IA NEWD ACROSS NRN IL/SRN WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
COUPLE OF STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL. A WATCH IS
NOT IMMINENT BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS
A LEAD IMPULSE NOW MOVING TOWARD NWRN MO FROM NERN KS ENHANCES DEEP
LAYER ASCENT ACROSS A WARM FRONT ROUGHLY SITUATED FROM IRK TO GBG TO
MDW. WHILE THIS LEAD IMPULSE IS WELL AHEAD OF A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... SUFFICIENT LIFT AND
ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LATEST DVN SOUNDING AT 18Z FURTHER SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR BOTH INCREASING SINCE 12Z.
SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES A GOOD PROBABILITY OF
PRIMARILY ELEVATED TSTMS INCREASING NEAR AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH 21Z.
   
..CARBIN.. 11/05/2005
   
   
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...
   
41708759 41098829 40399084 40059195 40179307 41189256
41869179 42239133 42649052 42878970 43058904 42828761
42488689

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2374
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0319 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MO...WRN IL...EXTREME SERN IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 052119Z - 052315Z
   
   A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR ACROSS PARTS OF MO AND
   PORTIONS OF EXTREME SERN IA AND WRN IL.
   
   LATEST VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOPS AND SHORT-TERM MODEL
   AND PROFILER DATA WERE ALL DEPICTING A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
   MOVING EAST ACROSS KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG LARGE ASCENT WAS
   INDUCING LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OVER WRN MO WHERE A DEEPENING
   SURFACE LOW WAS SITUATED ON A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS NEWD FROM THE
   LOW TO NRN IL. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
   DESTABILIZE WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE DATA SUGGESTING MLCAPE ON THE
   ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER... RELATIVELY LIMITED MOISTURE AND
   ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SO FAR
   INHIBITED SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
   
   CAPPING INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE DUE TO HEATING/MIXING AND
   MESOSCALE FORCING NEAR SURFACE LOW AND FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS. ONCE DEEP CONVECTION FORMS AND TAKES ROOT IN THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER...EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR LIFT
   ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS ORGANIZED
   STORMS. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE FROM INITIAL SUPERCELLULAR
   ACTIVITY NEAR THE LOW AND WARM FRONT GIVEN FORECAST 0-1KM SRH IN
   EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2 FOR EWD TRACKING CELLS. RAPID EWD ADVANCE OF
   LINEAR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL
   LIKELY OVERTAKE CELLULAR STORMS WITH ACTIVITY TRANSITIONING INTO A
   SEVERE SQUALL LINE...WITH EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES...AFTER DARK. WIND
   DAMAGE...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL THEN SPREAD
   EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 11/05/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...
   
   39409395 39879301 40459222 41188944 40488896 38709011
   37579284 37749422 38869437

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2375
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0455 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO / NRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 052255Z - 060030Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER SRN MO THIS EVENING...PERHAPS EXTENDING
   INTO NRN AR. A WW MAY BE NEEDED SOON FOR DAMAGING WIND AND SOME
   HAIL.
   
   ALTHOUGH 18Z SGF SOUNDING SHOWED PRONOUNCED CAP...STRONG CONVERGENCE
   WITH COLD FRONT AND COOLING ALOFT WILL HELP STORMS TO FORM OVER THE
   NEXT COUPLE HOURS. GIVEN STRONG LINEAR FORCING...A SQUALL LINE
   APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE...ALTHOUGH VEERING LOW LEVEL
   WIND PROFILES AHEAD OF THIS LINE SUGGEST EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES
   POSSIBLE AS WELL.  THUS...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 11/05/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
   
   37809377 37769029 35679074 35689424

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2376
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0636 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL IL...CENTRAL/ERN MO
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 841...
   
   VALID 060036Z - 060200Z
   
   TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH AROUND 2Z
   ACROSS WW AREA...BOTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF SFC COLD
   FRONT...MAINTAINING FULL-SPECTRUM SEVERE POTENTIAL UNTIL THEN.
   THEREAFTER...COMBINATION OF MAINLY LINEAR MODE AND DIABATIC SFC
   COOLING/STABILIZATION IN WARM SECTOR INFLOW REGION WILL REDUCE
   TORNADO THREAT...THOUGH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL STILL WILL BE LIKELY.
    MEANWHILE...SEVERAL PREFRONTAL SUPERCELLS ARE EVIDENT AS OF
   0030Z...INCLUDING ANOMALOUSLY INTENSE LEFT-SPLITTER MOVING NNEWD
   ACROSS MONROE/SERN SHELBY COUNTY WHICH MAY PRODUCE VERY
   LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL OVER MARION/LEWIS/CLARK COUNTIES MO.  ACTIVITY
   SW JEF AS OF 0030Z MAY DEVELOP INTO BOW ECHO AND TRACK ENEWD TOWARD
   STL AREA WITH ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT.  REPORT OF 70 KT GUST WAS
   RECEIVED FROM BOONE COUNTY MO AT 2350Z ALONG WITH 1.75 INCH HAIL.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS INCREASINGLY WELL DEFINED LOW OVER
   CENTRAL/NERN MO NEAR COU...WHICH WILL MOVE NEWD INTO NRN IL OVER
   NEXT FEW HOURS.  ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC FORCING AND BACKING OF SFC
   WINDS WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLY LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS NERN MO AND NRN IL...E AND NE OF PROJECTED
   SFC LOW TRACK AND INVOF WARM FRONT OVER NWRN IL.  MEANWHILE COLD
   FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SWRN MO.  WW MAY
   BE CLEARED BEHIND FRONT...AS COLD/DRY ADVECTION AND WEAKENING LIFT
   REDUCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.  NEAR-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE SHOULD
   CONTINUE FORMING THROUGH 03Z...AS ONGOING ACTIVITY COALESCES OVER WW
   AREA AND BACKBUILDS SWWD THROUGH WW 842.  LINEAR MODE WILL BE
   SUPPORTED MORE WITH TIME AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND INFLOW
   ABOVE SFC IS ALIGNED MORE PARALLEL TO FORCING BOUNDARY.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 11/06/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...
   
   37969336 40609140 41059009 41078926 40838880 40488857
   40258864 39508948 38458982 37959054 37789122

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2377
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0725 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN AR AND SRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 842...
   
   VALID 060125Z - 060300Z
   
   IR AND REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY INDICATES FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE
   BACKBUILDING TOWARD AREA JUST N FSM...WITH DEEPENING TOWERS E OF
   LINE IN WARM SECTOR.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
   BOTH COVERAGE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WITH
   DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL POSSIBLE.  TSTM BAND WILL
   MOVE EWD ACROSS OZARKS TOWARD N-CENTRAL AR AND S-CENTRAL/SERN MO. 
   
   ANIMATION OF 05/18Z-06/00Z SGF RAOBS SHOWS CLASSIC PROFILE FOR ONSET
   OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT REMOVING LARGE AMOUNTS OF CINH...AND THIS
   PROCESS SHOULD EXTEND SWD AT LEAST INTO EXTREME NRN AR.  PRIND SRN
   END OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE NEAR I-40 OVER
   NWRN AR...AS STRONGLY DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE IN MO LIFTS NEWD AHEAD
   OF INTENSE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED ZONE OF
   STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FORCING TURNS NEWD AWAY FROM REGION.  1000-1500
   J/KG MLCAPE WILL TRANSITION TO SIMILAR VALUES OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY
   AS DIABATICALLY DRIVEN DECOUPLING OCCURS IN INFLOW
   SECTOR...ACCOMPANIED BY AROUND 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 11/06/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
   
   35559425 37319329 37819240 37799137 37759090 37569065
   36769105 36509115 35439143 35499207 35369285

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2378
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0853 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN IL...WRN INDIANA...WRN KY...SE MO
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 841...
   
   VALID 060253Z - 060400Z
   
   WW/S 841 AND 842 WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE REPLACED WITH A NEW SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH BY 0330Z.
   
   SQUALL LINE NEAR/E OF SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN IL/MO/NW AR WILL
   MOVE EWD INTO CENTRAL IL AND SE MO/NE AR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS
   AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NEWD ACROSS NRN IL...AND A STRONG MID
   LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS NEWD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY.  THOUGH THE WARM
   SECTOR IS GRADUALLY STABILIZING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
   HEATING...MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AND LOW-MID LEVEL SLY/SWLY FLOW OF
   45-60 KT WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY
   MORNING HOURS.
   
   ..THOMPSON.. 11/06/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...
   
   37278856 36618930 35429057 35489198 35989237 38339075
   39899002 41248935 41558847 41658752 41468699 40398695
   39468720 38278780

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2379
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1157 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/NERN AR...EXTREME SERN
   MO...EXTREME WRN KY...EXTREME WRN TN...S-CENTRAL AND E-CENTRAL
   IL...CENTRAL/NRN INDIANA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 843...
   
   VALID 060557Z - 060730Z
   
   CONTINUE WW ALONG/AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING EWD 30-40 KT.
    ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT PAST
   E EDGE OF WW...AREAS FROM CENTRAL INDIANA SWWD TO WRN TN WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.
   
   MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE DAMAGING WIND WITH PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
   BAND MOVING EWD ACROSS NERN AR...SERN MO..IL AND NWRN INDIANA.
   PRESENT SHALLOWNESS OF NEAR-SFC STABILITY AND STRENGTH OF
   LOW/MIDLEVEL JETS INDICATE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR DOWNDRAFTS TO
   BRING SEVERE WIND TO SFC WITH MOST INTENSE TSTMS -- ESPECIALLY
   AROUND BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES.  ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   POTENTIAL ALSO LINGERS.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE POCKETS OF
   SMALL MLCINH REMAIN OVER SRN IL AND SERN MO.  THESE CINH WEAKNESSES
   SHOULD FILL WHILE DIABATIC SFC COOLING CONTINUES IN PRECONVECTIVE
   AIR MASS.  AS THIS OCCURS EXPECT EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS TO BECOME
   MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME...GRADUALLY REDUCING PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
   DOWNDRAFTS THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS AS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD ACROSS
   INDIANA...WRN TN AND WRN KY.  ACTIVITY MOVING EWD FROM CENTRAL AR
   SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED BUT SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS EWD TOWARD MS RIVER.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 11/06/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...
   
   35039194 36259069 37688958 38288979 38928876 40638791
   41538753 41298552 40718487 39308560 36498839 35079028
   34869157

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2380
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0138 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN LWR MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 060738Z - 060915Z
   
   PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS LWR MI SINCE 04Z AS
   UPSTREAM POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES NEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
   AS A RESULT...WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SURGED N INTO CNTRL LWR
   MI WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-60S AND DEW POINTS IN THE
   MID-50S.  NRN PORTION OF THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS SWRN LWR MI HAS
   SHOWN SIGNS OF INTENSIFYING PER COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN IR SATL.
   
   AS THE UPSTREAM IMPULSE ROTATES NEWD AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEEPENS
   RAPIDLY ACROSS LWR MI...TSTMS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED OR COULD INCREASE
   AS THEY MOVE NEWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN LWR MI.  GIVEN THE STRONG
   LOW/MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...THESE
   TSTMS MAY TEND TO BOW AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. 
   
   A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY.
   
   ..RACY.. 11/06/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...
   
   41818600 42878601 43588280 42808244 41758278

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2381
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0213 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND AND WRN KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 060813Z - 060945Z
   
   SRN PORTION OF THE SQUALL LINE HAS EVOLVED INTO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
   THIS MORNING.  THE 2-6KM MEAN WIND HAS LARGELY REMAINED NORMAL TO
   THE LINE THROUGH THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...SUGGESTING A MIXED-MODE OF
   LINE SEGMENTS AND INDIVIDUAL CELLS.  VWP/S SUGGEST VERY STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS OWING TO A STRONG AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO
   PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE LWR GRTLKS REGION.  0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF
   340 M2/S2 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT LOUISVILLE.  GIVEN NEARLY 70 KTS OF
   H85-H7 FLOW...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF
   SUSTAINED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR AN
   ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS SRN IND AND WRN KY.  OTHERWISE...A
   CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXIST...ALONG WITH HAIL.
   
   PORTIONS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 844 MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO
   A TORNADO WATCH SHORTLY.
   
   ..RACY.. 11/06/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...
   
   38448709 39158615 39058519 38638476 37788558 36868631
   36688725 36798807

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2382
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0340 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...OH/TN VLYS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 060940Z - 061115Z
   
   STRONG NEGATIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING ACROSS IL WITH
   STRONGEST BELT OF ASCENT SHIFTING DOWNSTREAM INTO WRN OH AND SERN
   LWR MI ATTM.  STRONGEST LLJ AXIS WAS BEGINNING TO SHIFT NWD FROM THE
    TN VLY TO THE OH VLY WITH 50-70 KTS IN THE H85-H7 LAYER.  STRONG
   FORCING FOR ASCENT WAS COMPENSATING FOR WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS
   SRN LWR MI SWD INTO WRN OH TO SUPPORT A LINEAR MCS.  FARTHER
   S...INSTABILITY WAS STRONGER OWING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER/MOISTER
   BOUNDARY LAYER.  THUS...DESPITE WEAKENING MASS CONVERGENCE...A MIXED
   MODE OF LINE SEGMENTS/DISCRETE CELLS ARE BEING FAVORED.
   
   GIVEN SUCH STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A NARROW
   AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAINTAINED JUST AHEAD OF THE TSTMS
   THROUGH THE MORNING FROM CNTRL OH SWWD ACROSS CNTRL KY AND MIDDLE
   TN.  OVERALL STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   WILL MAINTAIN THREAT FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS/EMBEDDED ROTATING
   STORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL OH SWD INTO MIDDLE
   TN...CONTINUING A DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT EAST OF THE CURRENT
   TORNADO WATCH 845.  AS SUCH...NEW WW/S WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY OVER
   PARTS OF THE OH/TN VLYS.
   
   ..RACY.. 11/06/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...
   
   35878712 41668234 41678075 36788413 35838511

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2383
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0520 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SWRN OH...SERN IND...WRN KY...WRN TN
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 845...
   
   VALID 061120Z - 061215Z
   
   TORNADO WATCH 845 EXPIRES AT 12Z. 
   
   ANALYSIS PLACES A 994 MB LOW OVER SRN LK MI AT 11Z WITH STRONG
   PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NRN LWR MI.  THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
   INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NEWD THIS MORNING.  LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS
   CONTINUE TO ADJUST TO THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING CYCLONE...WITH SEVERAL
   SEGMENTED CONVERGENCE ZONES ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VLY SWD INTO THE
   TN VLY.  THE PRIMARY BAND OF TSTMS HAS MOVED EWD INTO WW/S 847/848.
   BUT...ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ACROSS WCNTRL OH SWWD INTO
   SRN IND ALONG ONE OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONES.  A NARROW TONGUE OF
   LOW-MID 60S DEW POINTS CONTINUES JUST AHEAD OF THIS NEW TSTM LINE
   SEGMENT AND COULD SIGNAL A RENEWED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   WRN OH SWWD INTO NWRN KY...OR ALONG ERN EDGE OF THE EXPIRING WT 845.
    MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH AN ISOLD
   TORNADO AND HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
   NEW WW/S DOWNSTREAM SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.
   
   FARTHER S...ACROSS WRN TN...GIVEN THAT MAIN MASS CONVERGENCE/LLJ IS
   TRANSLATING NWD...IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED.
   
   ..RACY.. 11/06/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...
   
   35048924 37958728 38918693 39888606 40638382 39888396
   39038422 38468556 35048827

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2384
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0556 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MID-OH VLY SWWD INTO ERN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 061156Z - 061300Z
   
   BOUNDARY LAYER /CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN THE MID-50S/ HAS
   BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE
   APPALACHIANS FROM THE MID-OH VLY SWD INTO ERN TN.  STRONGEST PORTION
   OF THE LLJ /MASS CONVERGENCE/ WAS BEGINNING TO LIFT NWD INTO THE OH
   VLY REGION AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD TOWARD THE CNTRL
   GRTLKS REGION.
   
   ONGOING TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL KY AND MIDDLE TN CONTINUE TO BE
   MAINTAINED WITHIN THE LLJ AXIS.  STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...MEAN WIND
   VECTORS ORIENTED NORMAL TO THE LINE AND MODEST INSTABILITY HAVE BEEN
   FAVORABLE FOR MIXED MODES CONSISTING OF LINE SEGMENTS AND DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS UPSTREAM ACROSS CNTRL/WRN KY/TN. 
   
   THROUGH MID-MORNING...THE LLJ AXIS SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT NWD WITH
   TIME WITH AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY SUPPORTING TSTMS FROM THE MID-OH
   VLY SWD INTO ERN TN.  STRONGEST UVV SHOULD SHIFT EWD ACROSS AREAS N
   OF THE OH RVR AND THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS/ISOLD TORNADOES WILL EXIST THERE.  BUT...OVERALL STRONG
   LOW/MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AS FAR S AS
   ERN TN.  NEW WW WILL POSSIBLY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-OH
   VLY SWD INTO ERN TN.
   
   ..RACY.. 11/06/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...
   
   36208472 39558210 39468096 37048290 36078371

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2385
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0744 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MID-UPPER OH VLY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 061344Z - 061515Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE AGAIN LATER THIS
   MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID/UPPER OH VLY REGION WITH DAMAGING
   WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
   
   INITIAL BAND OF TSTMS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE MIDWEST/LWR OH VLY/TN
   VLY OVERNIGHT HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE
   STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT TSTMS WILL
   INTENSIFY/DEVELOP AGAIN BY MID-MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL/ERN
   OH.  THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE STRONGEST MID/UPPER
   LEVEL FLOW...FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING.  AS A
   RESULT...DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLD TORNADO POTENTIAL INCREASING
   LATER THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ENEWD TOWARD THE LWR GRTLKS
   AND UPPER OH VLY BY EARLY AFTN.
   
   ..RACY.. 11/06/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BUF...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...
   
   38728474 42128221 42177974 40348113 38618248

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2386
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0911 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY...WCNTRL PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 061511Z - 061715Z
   
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LINE DEVELOPS
   ACROSS WRN NY AND WCNTRL PA THIS MORNING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH IS CURRENTLY BEING ISSUED ACROSS THE AREA.
   
   SFC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE LOW OVER LAKE
   HURON WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS WRN NY AND WRN PA. SEVERAL
   LINE SEGMENTS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ALONG THE PRESSURE FALL
   AXIS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 50S F. ALTHOUGH
   INSTABILITY IS WEAK...SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY STRONG SUGGESTING ANY
   STORM ACTIVITY THAT FORMS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE.
   RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   SHOULD RESULT IN THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING WIND DAMAGE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 11/06/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...
   
   40057965 41987969 43327916 43447782 43067700 41657689
   39857750 39617868 39857959

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2387
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1044 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 848...
   
   VALID 061644Z - 061845Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS ERN OH AND FAR
   WRN PA OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS. AS A RESULT...WW 848 WILL BE
   REPLACED WITH A NEW WW.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN
   OH. SEVERAL LINES OF CONVECTION ARE ONGOING IN THE ERN PART OF WW
   848 AHEAD OF A STRONG BAND OF ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE LINES
   EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL ALLOW FURTHER
   DESTABILIZATION LATE THIS MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG ASCENT
   SPREADING EWD WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE LINE TO INTENSIFY. AS A
   RESULT...WW 848 WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDING LOCALLY IN ERN OH AND
   ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF PA. THE STRONG SHEAR AND INCREASING
   INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WITH THE
   STRONGER CELLS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 11/06/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...
   
   38938252 39428278 40788174 42048088 42348006 41847937
   39418130