Texas Summer 2018

[weatherdude1108]

They hinted at a 4th of July rainmaker possibly. Meanwhile, have to get through the same ole same ole. Hazy Friday and Saturday because of Saharan dust. My nose and eyes act up every time that rolls in. Guess I'm allergic to Africa(?).

Yea I need to get ahold of Jim Spencer and ask him what he thinks about next week. David is a pretty cool guy. Met him a couple of years back during a social outing with Jim.

I guess I was lucky than most in the Austin area from the last rains even though I don't really feel lucky. Just a tiny bit above half an inch. Barely enough to keep the grass perky for a couple of days.

You met both of them?? Cool! I met Bob Rose this past February during a weather expo downtown. He had his weather monitoring station with him and explained how it worked. Told him I followed his blog. He was really cool and knowledgeable! Acted exactly the same as in his video blogs.

Anyway, yeah, there was only a quarter inch or so in my gauge when I got back from Michigan, but I also had the sprinkler system set to go off once, so my yard's in good shape.

[weatherdude1108]

Given the time of year, and our luck/history with these rain-making systems as of late, I am siding with the GFS.

Given that, I hope the GFS is wrong, and the ECMWF verifies!

592
FXUS64 KEWX 271941
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
241 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
The subtropical ridge will continue to dominate over South Central
Texas during this period. This will mean mainly dry weather for most
of the region. Southerly to southeasterly low level flow will
continue to pump moisture in from the Gulf. There may be convective
development along the seabreeze Thursday and this may move up into
our southeastern counties. Temperatures will be above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
The upper pattern will change very little over the rest of the week
and weekend. An upper level ridge will continue to dominate and this
will suppress any chance for rain. Temperatures will continue above
normal through this period. Next week models are beginning to show
some changes, bur are not in good agreement. Both the GFS and ECMWF
develop an easterly wave in the Gulf and move it toward Texas. The
ECMWF develops this feature into a significant rain producing system.
The GFS weakens it as it moves into Central Texas bringing much lower
precipitation amounts. Given that this is the day seven forecast and
we are in the middle of a very dry period, we have sided closer to
the GFS with lower POPs and QPF. We will see how these forecasts play
out.

[Haris]

Given the time of year, and our luck/history with these rain-making systems as of late, I am siding with the GFS.

Given that, I hope the GFS is wrong, and the ECMWF verifies!

592
FXUS64 KEWX 271941
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
241 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
The subtropical ridge will continue to dominate over South Central
Texas during this period. This will mean mainly dry weather for most
of the region. Southerly to southeasterly low level flow will
continue to pump moisture in from the Gulf. There may be convective
development along the seabreeze Thursday and this may move up into
our southeastern counties. Temperatures will be above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
The upper pattern will change very little over the rest of the week
and weekend. An upper level ridge will continue to dominate and this
will suppress any chance for rain. Temperatures will continue above
normal through this period. Next week models are beginning to show
some changes, bur are not in good agreement. Both the GFS and ECMWF
develop an easterly wave in the Gulf and move it toward Texas. The
ECMWF develops this feature into a significant rain producing system.
The GFS weakens it as it moves into Central Texas bringing much lower
precipitation amounts. Given that this is the day seven forecast and
we are in the middle of a very dry period, we have sided closer to
the GFS with lower POPs and QPF. We will see how these forecasts play
out.

What is the NWS talking about??? The 12z euro shows .2” ! HMMMMm???

[Haris]

They hinted at a 4th of July rainmaker possibly. Meanwhile, have to get through the same ole same ole. Hazy Friday and Saturday because of Saharan dust. My nose and eyes act up every time that rolls in. Guess I'm allergic to Africa(?).

Yea I need to get ahold of Jim Spencer and ask him what he thinks about next week. David is a pretty cool guy. Met him a couple of years back during a social outing with Jim.

I guess I was lucky than most in the Austin area from the last rains even though I don't really feel lucky. Just a tiny bit above half an inch. Barely enough to keep the grass perky for a couple of days.

Jim Spencer is a very cool long time Austin weather expert ! He seems like a real TV met . Unlike others that barely know meteorology it seems .LOL . He follows me on Twitter and has given me a shout out on a live stream and TV .

[weatherdude1108]

Given the time of year, and our luck/history with these rain-making systems as of late, I am siding with the GFS.

Given that, I hope the GFS is wrong, and the ECMWF verifies!

592
FXUS64 KEWX 271941
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
241 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
The subtropical ridge will continue to dominate over South Central
Texas during this period. This will mean mainly dry weather for most
of the region. Southerly to southeasterly low level flow will
continue to pump moisture in from the Gulf. There may be convective
development along the seabreeze Thursday and this may move up into
our southeastern counties. Temperatures will be above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
The upper pattern will change very little over the rest of the week
and weekend. An upper level ridge will continue to dominate and this
will suppress any chance for rain. Temperatures will continue above
normal through this period. Next week models are beginning to show
some changes, bur are not in good agreement. Both the GFS and ECMWF
develop an easterly wave in the Gulf and move it toward Texas. The
ECMWF develops this feature into a significant rain producing system.
The GFS weakens it as it moves into Central Texas bringing much lower
precipitation amounts. Given that this is the day seven forecast and
we are in the middle of a very dry period, we have sided closer to
the GFS with lower POPs and QPF. We will see how these forecasts play
out.

What is the NWS talking about??? The 12z euro shows .2” ! HMMMMm???

Who knows? These forecasts change by the hour.

[weatherdude1108]

They hinted at a 4th of July rainmaker possibly. Meanwhile, have to get through the same ole same ole. Hazy Friday and Saturday because of Saharan dust. My nose and eyes act up every time that rolls in. Guess I'm allergic to Africa(?).

Yea I need to get ahold of Jim Spencer and ask him what he thinks about next week. David is a pretty cool guy. Met him a couple of years back during a social outing with Jim.

I guess I was lucky than most in the Austin area from the last rains even though I don't really feel lucky. Just a tiny bit above half an inch. Barely enough to keep the grass perky for a couple of days.

Jim Spencer is a very cool long time Austin weather expert ! He seems like a real TV met . Unlike others that barely know meteorology it seems .LOL . He follows me on Twitter and has given me a shout out on a live stream and TV .

I still have yet to use Twitter. I put one tweet a long time ago. "This is my first tweet." No responses.LOL

[Brent]

Given the time of year, and our luck/history with these rain-making systems as of late, I am siding with the GFS.

Given that, I hope the GFS is wrong, and the ECMWF verifies!

592
FXUS64 KEWX 271941
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
241 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
The subtropical ridge will continue to dominate over South Central
Texas during this period. This will mean mainly dry weather for most
of the region. Southerly to southeasterly low level flow will
continue to pump moisture in from the Gulf. There may be convective
development along the seabreeze Thursday and this may move up into
our southeastern counties. Temperatures will be above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
The upper pattern will change very little over the rest of the week
and weekend. An upper level ridge will continue to dominate and this
will suppress any chance for rain. Temperatures will continue above
normal through this period. Next week models are beginning to show
some changes, bur are not in good agreement. Both the GFS and ECMWF
develop an easterly wave in the Gulf and move it toward Texas. The
ECMWF develops this feature into a significant rain producing system.
The GFS weakens it as it moves into Central Texas bringing much lower
precipitation amounts. Given that this is the day seven forecast and
we are in the middle of a very dry period, we have sided closer to
the GFS with lower POPs and QPF. We will see how these forecasts play
out.

What is the NWS talking about??? The 12z euro shows .2” ! HMMMMm???

Who knows? These forecasts change by the hour.

Euro was a lot wetter down there in previous runs

Lot of model runs to go

[gpsnowman]

This heat sucks. I can not stand it. The worst part of the year without a doubt. Fortunately, my two week trip to Morelia Mexico will bring some weather happiness. We fly out on July 8 and return on the 21st. Most of our time will be spent in the mountains near Acambaro, Gto. where it rains every evening with morning temps in the low 50's and highs in the 70's. Same with Mexico City this time of year, where we might spend a few days. I can not wait.

[Brent]

This heat sucks. I can not stand it. The worst part of the year without a doubt. Fortunately, my two week trip to Morelia Mexico will bring some weather happiness. We fly out on July 8 and return on the 21st. Most of our time will be spent in the mountains near Acambaro, Gto. where it rains every evening with morning temps in the low 50's and highs in the 70's. Same with Mexico City this time of year, where we might spend a few days. I can not wait.

I'm going to San Francisco for a long weekend next month... I'm hoping the highs are cooler than our lows

DFW hit 100 for the 2nd time

[Cerlin]

Currently in Orange Beach Alabama and there have been thunderstorms every morning. If only that could happen in DFW.

[Brent]

Currently in Orange Beach Alabama and there have been thunderstorms every morning. If only that could happen in DFW.

My friends in Alabama Georgia talking about how wet summer has been

Makes me just sigh really. It used to at least be something to look forward to this time of year

[weatherdude1108]

Two different computer models of projected rainfall through next Thursday. I'm leaning towards the top one, but a little higher at 0.5 (give or take) of an inch.

[DonWrk]

well its happened. Had to put out round bales due to non existent grass and pastures quickly turning to dirt. I don't know what I'm going to do when the bales run out and we still haven't received any rain.

Had to do the same around here. About to move a number of head up north by the river where we’ve gotten more rain.

[Haris]

Euro still strong next week .
GFS trended wetter .

We shall see

[Brent]

Euro actually has some rain in Dallas!!

We'll see how that goes

[South Texas Storms]

Rain chances look to be increasing across much of the state next week. Bring on the rain!

[Brent]

3rd 100 just made official at DFW woo...

wonder how many we'll have

[gboudx]

3rd 100 just made official at DFW woo...

wonder how many we'll have

I’ll guess 23 more.

[Haris]

3rd is nothing, Brent! LOL.

How bout' 9th day here in the ATX. 101 3 days. 102 one day.


Its t---e---r---r---i---b---l---e

[weatherdude1108]

3rd is nothing, Brent! LOL.

How bout' 9th day here in the ATX. 101 3 days. 102 one day.


Its t---e---r---r---i---b---l---e

Exactly what I was gonna say! 3rd?? Must be tough up in Dallas (SARCASM).lol