Texas Summer - 2013

[horselattitudesfarm]

Per the NWS for NTX:

"A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL COOL OFF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. A WEAK FRONT WILL TRY TO BACK DOOR INTO OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. THE MAIN EFFECT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON NORTH TEXAS
WEATHER IS CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME EASTERLY. PREVIOUS RUNS
OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE HAD SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN THE
NORTHEAST...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE HAS NOW BACKED OFF. TO PREVENT FLIP-
FLOPPING FORECASTS...LEFT IN THE SMALL RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW...BUT
THESE MAY BE LATER REMOVED IF FUTURE RUNS COME IN DRY."

Please let us have that little 20% chance! I beg of you.....PLEASE!!! I'll do anything.....just let us have that little 20% chance of rain!!

[weatherdude1108]

While it is a bit OT but in similar spirit to some of these posts, I know of a certain Storm2k mod who was so amped about meteorology that he once went and met with the dean of the A&M meteorology school to discuss the possibility of jettisoning his journalism career and moving into being a meteorologist. Said dean explained the high demand which would come from math and physics courses. Said mod realized his liberal arts disposition would mean said career change not advisable.

Back to the weather. I hope the seabreeze is active and moves well inland today. Would love me some tropical downpours at the Portastorm Weather Center!

The skies off to our southeast looked dark and threatening the past couple days late afternoon. Both days, got a wind shift sea breeze, but NO rain.

Not to mention, my digital gauge decided to go on the fritz. I think batteries. But I have an analog backup thankfully. Just means I have to wait for rain to end to go out and look instead of watching it add up in real time from inside. Ah well.

[weatherdude1108]

Looking at the skies and radar, not sure if this is yet another tease or the real deal. I saw the ewx discussion for next week. A ways off to think about anything, but a front interacting with deep tropical moisture would be ideal for parched Central Texas!

I read an article today that Governor Perry signed a proclamation Friday stating "...the drought poses an imminent threat of disaster in every county in Central Texas." I'm hoping this is not true of course.

Latest EWX discussion:
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
BY WEDNESDAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD
INTO TEXAS...AND THEREFORE RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SRN CWA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PREVAIL OVER TX INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPERATURES EDGING BACK
A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. MEANWHILE A POSSIBLE
DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVES N-NWWD
INTO THE FAR WRN GULF. NHC CURRENTLY PLACES A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY SEND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO S TX LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND MOISTURE SURGES NWD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT FOR NOW HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY AND LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA BY MONDAY. IN ADDITION THE GFS IS SHOWING A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO NORTH TX LATE MONDAY WHICH COULD
FURTHER ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

[Ntxw]

Good discussion from EWX, all eyes will be in the southwest gulf. It's the wild card to changing the pattern from the doldrums. Models have trended better in terms of weakening the ridge to allow for such feature when/if it forms to maybe shift a little north in track. If the ridge moves over to Florida vicinity we could get possible moisture inflow around high pressure like with Hermine into Texas even if it's a Mexican landfall.

Long long range guidance hints at westerlies crashing into NA which may signal the departure of the resident heat ridges from summer across the country.

[Portastorm]

Lots of reports coming in of tropical downpours in south Austin. Keep the faith, weatherdude! Should be raining here in downtown and up in your 'hood shortly.

[weatherdude1108]

Well, got sprinkles enough to moisten pavement here. It did cool to 78 with the tropical breezes from the south Austin downpours.

But I think horselattitudesfarm's luck rubbed off on me this round.

I'll keep you posted on any new developments that may happen though.

[Ntxw]

GFS and Euro are showing highs in 70s and low/mid 80s for DFW, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio late this weekend into early next week. Not from a blasting cold front but from cloud cover, rain, and backdoor type frontal boundary (think BOC) with 1-3+ inches of rain. Keep your fingers crossed boys and girls! Seasonal changes are just around the corner.

[Ntxw]

93L! Answer to our prayers?

[Tireman4]

93L! Answer to our prayers?

Please do not end up like Don. Please do not end up like Don. Thank you.

[Portastorm]

Tireman, I may have to suspend you from this board for using the D-word. Stop it!!

[Tireman4]

Tireman, I may have to suspend you from this board for using the D-word. Stop it!!

Yes sir. Let us quote Porta on this ( for those newbies that are riding with us for the first time)...Don was the sorriest excuse for a named storm of all time...

[weatherdude1108]

Ditto to that! Don should not have been recorded in the history books as far as I'm concerned!

Meanwhile regarding Ntxw's post, are those 4-5 inch rain prediction totals over Central Texas?? I'll believe it when I see it. We really don't need any more teasing in these parts.

[weatherdude1108]

Latest EWX discussion:

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 ON THURSDAY AS THE EASTERLIES ENHANCE
CONVECTION ON THE SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY. FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY
AS THE UPPER HIGH BRIEFLY BECOMES CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS. ALL
EYES WILL BE ON THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER
THE WEEKEND. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN NEAR BELIZE WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
BY THURSDAY. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF LATER THIS WEEK AND HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON THE FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ATTM
THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SYSTEM TO MOVE WESTWARD MAKING LANDFALL
IN MEXICO ON MONDAY NEAR TAMPICO. THE 12Z GFS IS THE FURTHEST NORTH
WITH THE TRACK...MOVING ONSHORE SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...THEN MOVING
NORTHWEST UP THE RIO GRANDE. IN ANY EVENT INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO INCREASING POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

[Ntxw]

I agree lets not mention the storm that-must-not-be-named. Rather lets talk about Hermine and how the current GFS mimics that storm

[Rgv20]

I remember Hermine....I had 1 rain shower! Brownsville and Harlingen got rocked tho but from about McAllen westward no rain!

[weatherdude1108]

Drove home in sprinkles. Got to my neighborhood, and started POURING on me. Weatherdude Center picked up a third (0.3) of an inch! . And it is 73 degrees!

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose said that even if a more southerly track and drier solution develops next week with the tropical system, there will still be a considerable influx of deep tropical moisture over Texas.

http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/we ... olumn.html

[horselattitudesfarm]

:uarrow:
Ditto to that! Don should not have been recorded in the history books as far as I'm concerned!

Meanwhile regarding Ntxw's post, are those 4-5 inch rain prediction totals over Central Texas?? I'll believe it when I see it. We really don't need any more teasing in these parts.

Wait! Wait! They forgot to put the donut hole over Collin County! Whats wrong with these guys... I thought they were professionals!

[Portastorm]

The overnight model trend went in the wrong direction for us. Nevertheless even with a "drier" solution on 93L, some moisture should still make it into a good portion of the state next week. IMO, the models will change again as they struggle to get the strength of the ridging right over Texas and then with any possible development of a tropical cyclone. Smarter minds think this system will be a sloppy one with multiple centers rotating around. To be continued ...

[weatherdude1108]

The overnight model trend went in the wrong direction for us. Nevertheless even with a "drier" solution on 93L, some moisture should still make it into a good portion of the state next week. IMO, the models will change again as they struggle to get the strength of the ridging right over Texas and then with any possible development of a tropical cyclone. Smarter minds think this system will be a sloppy one with multiple centers rotating around. To be continued ...

Wow, what a shock the models shifted south! How many times have we seen that happen?

I agree Portastorm. I don't think the ridge has enough strength to squash it into central Mexico this late in the Summer. In July more likely. I don't know though. Wish I did! I'm biased though obviously, and am pulling for the models to shift it north between Brownsville and South Padre! Hmmm.