Texas Summer 2025

[Ntxw]

Looks like this could be a benchmark summer we might talk about as the standard for 'good' summers in terms of lack of heat waves, and chances for rain.

[txtwister78]

Lstest 18z HRRR extended continues with the south trend pushing the heavier rain threat into the San Antonio metro tomorrow afternoon into the early evening hours.

Model now showing pockets of 4-6 inches potentially within the SA metro region. Flash Flood Watch covers this threat.

[gpsnowman]

Looks like this could be a benchmark summer we might talk about as the standard for 'good' summers in terms of lack of heat waves, and chances for rain.

Makes me wonder just how rainy the two previous years without a 100 degree reading actually were. 1906 and 1973 I believe. Hope we can make it this year but I'm not holding my breath.

[Brent]

Life threatening flooding in OKC

Like this is a rare summer... I mean it's not over yet but wow

[utpmg]

Looks like this could be a benchmark summer we might talk about as the standard for 'good' summers in terms of lack of heat waves, and chances for rain.

Now you've done it...

[rwfromkansas]

Two outflows will collide in Tarrant.

Sometimes that ignites something. But not always.

[Brent]

Looks like this could be a benchmark summer we might talk about as the standard for 'good' summers in terms of lack of heat waves, and chances for rain.

Now you've done it...

Hahaha now August and September is gonna be 61 days of heat

[txtwister78]

Unfortunately this region can't get a break. Moderate risk added.

 https://x.com/NWSWPC/status/1944190405462909140

[snownado]

Believe it or not, until this evening, I've missed out on all of the t'storms.

Finally getting a solid hit now.

[Gotwood]

Believe it or not, until this evening, I've missed out on all of the t'storms.

Finally getting a solid hit now.

Haven’t had a drop of rain at my house today. Nice and cool out though so can’t complain. Guess we will see if anything else pops up.

[rwfromkansas]

Well, looking like a bust again for Tarrant/Parker/Wise. Had one cell on eastern Tarrant but western areas have seen nothing. Some flooding in Dallas/Collin as usual.

Weird since the NWS had the focus west of DFW.

[Quixotic]

Closest summer I can recall like this one was 2004(I could be wrong on the year but it was the early oughts and since 2005 was a drought and 00 - 02 were dry, it was either 03 or 04). One day of 100F. It was very similar to this: highs to the east and west and consistent northerly flow. It was humid as Central America. Had a little used jogging trail along the trinity river and parts of it were under water. Saw many snakes and the biggest bobcat I’ve ever seen. If it’s not 100, you pay for it in humidity.

[Brent]

2004 and 2020(?) are the last two with no 100's here

2019 which was also very stormy like this only had 2

But yeah the humidity is still gonna be ugh regardless

At least we're losing daylight on both sides now

[wxman22]

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0665
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1025 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Areas affected...Central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 130225Z - 130825Z

SUMMARY...A serious risk of high-impact flash flooding from
slow-moving, and locally training showers and thunderstorms will
exist later tonight across central TX, including portions of the
Edwards Plateau/Hill Country.

DISCUSSION...The GOES-E Proxy Visible satellite imagery shows a
slow-moving vort center gradually drifting east across the Concho
Valley which overnight will eventually advance into the broader
Hill Country region. Based on the latest CIRA-ALPW data, this
energy is embedded within a concentrated corridor of deeper
moisture lifting up across central TX, with strong concentrations
seen in the 850/500 mb layer with overall values of 1.5 to 1.75+
inches.

Meanwhile, the airmass more broadly pooled across the Hill Country
region is quite unstable with MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500 J/kg.
This instability is seen pooling along a weak surface trough out
ahead of a stationary front, and this coupled with the arrival of
the aforementioned vort energy along with a gradually increasing
southerly low-level jet should help drive developing areas of
showers and thunderstorms with high rainfall rates.

A nocturnal tightening of the mid-level vort energy along with
increasingly convergent flow along its southern and eastern flanks
near the surface trough will favor convection growing gradually
upscale, but in a very concentrated manner in a southwest to
northeast fashion across central TX. This region will also be in
the right-entrance region of an upper-level jet to further support
ascent for convection.

Rainfall rates are expected to be on the order of 2 to 4
inches/hour with the stronger storms, and the latest HRRR/RRFS
guidance along with support from the 18Z HREF and 12Z REFS suites
support these rates. An excellent environment will develop later
tonight for back-building and training convection, with slow
cell-motions. Favorable Corfidi vectors with weak steering flow
are expected to align that will facilitate this convective
evolution especially after midnight.

Some rainfall totals by 08Z (3AM CDT) may reach as high as 4 to 6+
inches, but with additional very heavy rainfall expected after
this time frame going through dawn. A serious risk of high-impact
flash flooding is expected overnight across the sensitive Hill
Country region, with dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding
likely by later tonight. Additional MPDs will be issued
accordingly as this event unfolds.

[Cpv17]

Closest summer I can recall like this one was 2004(I could be wrong on the year but it was the early oughts and since 2005 was a drought and 00 - 02 were dry, it was either 03 or 04). One day of 100F. It was very similar to this: highs to the east and west and consistent northerly flow. It was humid as Central America. Had a little used jogging trail along the trinity river and parts of it were under water. Saw many snakes and the biggest bobcat I’ve ever seen. If it’s not 100, you pay for it in humidity.

2007 here in southeast Texas. Not sure how 2007 was up there.

[cheezyWXguy]

Closest summer I can recall like this one was 2004(I could be wrong on the year but it was the early oughts and since 2005 was a drought and 00 - 02 were dry, it was either 03 or 04). One day of 100F. It was very similar to this: highs to the east and west and consistent northerly flow. It was humid as Central America. Had a little used jogging trail along the trinity river and parts of it were under water. Saw many snakes and the biggest bobcat I’ve ever seen. If it’s not 100, you pay for it in humidity.

2007 here in southeast Texas. Not sure how 2007 was up there.

Up here the first half was very wet but the faucet eventually shut off for the second half.

[Brent]

Closest summer I can recall like this one was 2004(I could be wrong on the year but it was the early oughts and since 2005 was a drought and 00 - 02 were dry, it was either 03 or 04). One day of 100F. It was very similar to this: highs to the east and west and consistent northerly flow. It was humid as Central America. Had a little used jogging trail along the trinity river and parts of it were under water. Saw many snakes and the biggest bobcat I’ve ever seen. If it’s not 100, you pay for it in humidity.

2007 here in southeast Texas. Not sure how 2007 was up there.

Up here the first half was very wet but the faucet eventually shut off for the second half.

2007 is actually near average here. Quite a few 100s. It must have been really hot in August. Yup I see a really hot 10 day stretch

2002 only had a couple like 2019

[utpmg]

8+" over the San Saba and upper Colorado last night.

[wxman22]

More heavy rainfall accumulation in the Hill Country. Radar estimates show up to a foot!

[utpmg]

The Llano river rose 10' in about an hour just now at Llano, according to the gauge.