STORM2K

Heavy rainfall threat continues over SE TX today and likely again on Tuesday

Wet weather will continue for much of the week

Upper trough axis clearly evident over SW to N TX this morning with a large shield of rainfall cross much of C and N TX this morning. Locally, bands of showers and thunderstorms are moving northward off the NE Gulf of Mexico into our western counties from Matagorda Bay to near I-10. Radar has really shown an increase in development in the last hour along what appears to be a convergent boundary rom Galveston Bay WSW to central Brazoria and central Matagorda Counties.

Air mass remains extremely moist with CRP morning sounding showing 2.43 in PW and LCH 2.16 in. Areas east of a line from College Station to Galveston are seeing some breaks in the overcast this morning and this will likely result in an expansion of the showers and thunderstorms ENE across more of the area as the day progresses.

Storm motions are certainly faster with deep southerly flow in place, but this same flow is favorable for storms to band in lines and potentially train over the same areas piling up rainfall. With such a moist air column in place rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour remain possible under the stronger storms. Will favor the SW/W counties for the bulk of the rainfall and potential training today, but the threat does remain across the entire region.

Little change in the air mass moving forward with very moist profiles remaining in place much of the week. It is not going to take much if any heating to get things going especially on Tuesday. The pattern may transition to more diurnal in nature toward the end of the week as moisture decreases a bit and the air mass requires more heating to fire off convection.

TheProfessor wrote:Here's this guy's first winter speculation, don't know much about him ( https://www.wxrisk.com/1st-speculation- ... 2016-2017/ ). It seemed to be geared mainly to the east coast, but he does talk about just about the whole country. It seems to think right now that the cooler weather will mostly held in the Northeast in the first half of Winter and then thinks that any weak La Nina that might have developed will have weakened and that stronger Greenland blocking will allow for the colder air to slip further south and allow for the Plains and the East Coast to experience more of Winter.

Ntxw wrote:

TheProfessor wrote:Here's this guy's first winter speculation, don't know much about him ( https://www.wxrisk.com/1st-speculation- ... 2016-2017/ ). It seemed to be geared mainly to the east coast, but he does talk about just about the whole country. It seems to think right now that the cooler weather will mostly held in the Northeast in the first half of Winter and then thinks that any weak La Nina that might have developed will have weakened and that stronger Greenland blocking will allow for the colder air to slip further south and allow for the Plains and the East Coast to experience more of Winter.

He makes some great points. I actually disagree on some points though. I think the SE ridge will be in play and at times poke northeast. -PNA will be most prevalent of the past 2 winters as it is a staple of Ninas. Midwest and Northern plains centric trough. NAO has been stubborn positive since 2011. All eyes on the EPO. This winter more or less could look similar to 2013-2014 than 2014-2015

gpsnowman wrote:A "cool" 75 degrees here in Frisco this afternoon. I wonder if any record high minimums will be set today in the DFW area. Above normal seems to be the norm from month to month. Time for below normal to strike back!!

Ntxw wrote:In case you havent checked, below Alaska and just to the southwest we have a massive warm pool, highly anomalous (with blocking overhead) in the same area as what started in 2013.