Texas Summer - 2013

[Portastorm]

Hey everyone I'm new here on the forum nice to meet you all. That storm that hit the other night went right over south Austin. I was looking out the window and could see multiple cloud to ground lightning strikes. Several hit really close to my home. Got about 3 quarters of an inch at my house. ABIA had a max rainfall daily record.

Welcome to Storm2K! It's good to have you here, JDawgs512. It's also nice to have another person from the Austin metro area.

Come back often, share your insights and highlights, and join the fun!

[weatherdude1108]

Speaking of the Austin metro area, the ewx has a blurb:

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AS THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST...BROAD ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD CONTINUE TO OPEN UP THE OPPORTUNITY FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION OVER MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX EACH DAY. MODELS AGREE ON
A WEAK UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THIS ONSHORE PATTERN TO FURTHER
DEEPEN THE MOIST LAYER AND PUSH RAIN CHANCES FARTHER INLAND BY
TUESDAY. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES MAY END UP BEING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN THE GFS SHOWS THE HIGHEST PWAT VALUES REACHING WELL
OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. EVEN IF SOME AREAS ARE
UNABLE TO RECEIVE SOME OF THESE MUCH NEEDED RAINS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IMPACTED ENOUGH TO CONVERGE TOWARD CLIMATE
NORMS BY MID-WEEK.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS NEVER PULL THE UPPER
RIDGE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE PICTURE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO TREAT
THE BROAD PATTERN WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY...KEEPING THE UPPER END OF
POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ADDING THE UNCERTAINTY...CONTINUED ACTIVE TROPICAL ACTIVITY OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL HAVE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS OVER THE MEDIUM RANGE.

[horselattitudesfarm]

Has anybody seen this yet: Published by NOAA: And the winner is.......

"Drought conditions compound since 2008:

Since Hurricane Ike in September of 2008 Southeast Texas has been extremely dry. The remainder of 2008 (October through December) was below normal for College Station, Houston Intercontinental and Houston Hobby. Rainfall each year after 2008 has been below normal for all three climate sites (besides 2012 for College Station). Cumulative rainfall deficits (1981 – 2010 normals) are now approaching 60” below normal at Houston Hobby and 46” below normal College Station for the almost five year period.
COLLEGE STATION CITY OF HOUSTON (CLL) HOUSTON (IAH) HOBBY (HOU)
2008 (OCT- DEC) - 7.48 - 0.51 5.89
2009 - - 1.08 -2.76 - 2.00
2010 - -12.28 -7.05 - 7.63
2011 -20.09 -25.20 -29.24
2012 + 1.12 - 7.45 - 2.79
2013 (JAN- AUG29) - 5.57 -10.36 -11.82
CUMULATIVE -45.38 -53.33 -59.37
So how does this compare to the rest of the continental United States? Breaking down the continental United States into their respective climate divisions and calculating the average precipitation anomaly for Jan to Dec 2008 to 20012 ranks southeast Texas (climate division 8) number 1 out of 344 climate divisions for the greatest precipitation anomaly (see Figure 1). To say the past couple of years have been dry is an understatement.
100 degree days has also something of note. At College Station (CLL) the 1981 to 2010 average is 14.1 days. In 2009, CLL reported 54 100 degree days. Every year after 2009 has been above average regarding the number of 100 degree days for CLL. This makes five years in a row with the number of 100 degree days above 14.1 since 1914 (1910 - 1914)."

60" of rain!!! Holy Cow! The table didn't transfer well so the 3 values you see for each year correspond to College Station, City of Houston (CLL) and Hobby Airport (IAH) and they are almost all negative numbers

[Ntxw]

It's a sad statistic to see. And guess what? -PDO continues. We have seen 1 month of +PDO (hardly positive it was only 0.08 and that was back in May of this year). Before that + reading we went 35 straight months of negatives and have returned to very negatives. The last time we began summer with a +PDO reading...2007.

[weatherdude1108]

It's amazing to me how long the PDO has been overall negative, especially as global warming appears to be going on, so it seems(?). I'm bummed now.

[horselattitudesfarm]

.

[horselattitudesfarm]

Sad sad sad forecast by the NWS: Oh how I wish we were further towards the Northeastern US (Maybe moving to Asheville NC is the right thing to do after all)


THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST TO HEAD BACK TO THE WEST BY LATE
WEEK AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH ARE FORECAST
TO DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND AFFECT THE EASTERN U.S. BY
NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS FORECASTS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CANADIAN
HIGH TO BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THE ECMWF
IS CONSIDERABLY LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS WITH THIS COOL DOWN.
WHILE WINDS MAY SWING TO THE NORTHEAST BY NEXT SATURDAY...ANY COOL
DOWN WOULD BE SUBTLE DUE TO THE WARMING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH OVERHEAD. GIVEN THAT THE CENTER OF THE CANADIAN SURFACE
HIGH WILL REMAIN SO FAR NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...WILL SIDE WITH
THE ECMWF FORECAST AND KEEP HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE
MID-UPPER 90S FOR FRIDAY AND NEXT SATURDAY. THERE ARE STILL NO
STRONG INDICATIONS IN ANY OF THE MODELS FOR OUR FIRST TRUE FALL
COLD FRONT.

This brings me to another topic. Has anyone seen any computer model of how the Earth's land masses could be oriented so there were no deserts on the planet and every square mile of land surface would get evenly distributed rainfall all year long? This would allow agriculture to flourish on every square mile of land on the planet. It would be cool to run a computer simulation of terraforming the Earth to achieve this. We might have to start another thread for this

[Ntxw]

This brings me to another topic. Has anyone seen any computer model of how the Earth's land masses could be oriented so there were no deserts on the planet and every square mile of land surface would get evenly distributed rainfall all year long? This would allow agriculture to flourish on every square mile of land on the planet. It would be cool to run a computer simulation of terraforming the Earth to achieve this. We might have to start another thread for this

It's a good theory but I don't think it's possible. Wind patterns dictate whether an area is a desert or not as well as mountain ranges (rain shadow). If you are blocked from moisture coming from the tropical latitudes = Desert. There's always going to be mountain formation due to tectonic plates always on the move. In Texas the southerly wind is the dominant feature, during the -PDO phase like we are in now SW winds become favorable and there's multi-year drought, there's a mountain range between us and the tropical Pacific. During +PDO SE winds brings gulf air mass to Texas that is typically seen in the southeastern states, no mountain ranges just water.

[weatherdude1108]

This brings me to another topic. Has anyone seen any computer model of how the Earth's land masses could be oriented so there were no deserts on the planet and every square mile of land surface would get evenly distributed rainfall all year long? This would allow agriculture to flourish on every square mile of land on the planet. It would be cool to run a computer simulation of terraforming the Earth to achieve this. We might have to start another thread for this

It's a good theory but I don't think it's possible. Wind patterns dictate whether an area is a desert or not as well as mountain ranges (rain shadow). If you are blocked from moisture coming from the tropical latitudes = Desert. There's always going to be mountain formation due to tectonic plates always on the move. In Texas the southerly wind is the dominant feature, during the -PDO phase like we are in now SW winds become favorable and there's multi-year drought, there's a mountain range between us and the tropical Pacific. During +PDO SE winds brings gulf air mass to Texas that is typically seen in the southeastern states, no mountain ranges just water.

As usual, great explanation Ntxw!

As far as the unfavorable PDO, I think we should all take a trip out to the cold negative PDO Pacific waters -- with FLAME THROWERS.

[horselattitudesfarm]

This brings me to another topic. Has anyone seen any computer model of how the Earth's land masses could be oriented so there were no deserts on the planet and every square mile of land surface would get evenly distributed rainfall all year long? This would allow agriculture to flourish on every square mile of land on the planet. It would be cool to run a computer simulation of terraforming the Earth to achieve this. We might have to start another thread for this

It's a good theory but I don't think it's possible. Wind patterns dictate whether an area is a desert or not as well as mountain ranges (rain shadow). If you are blocked from moisture coming from the tropical latitudes = Desert. There's always going to be mountain formation due to tectonic plates always on the move. In Texas the southerly wind is the dominant feature, during the -PDO phase like we are in now SW winds become favorable and there's multi-year drought, there's a mountain range between us and the tropical Pacific. During +PDO SE winds brings gulf air mass to Texas that is typically seen in the southeastern states, no mountain ranges just water.

As usual, great explanation Ntxw!

As far as the unfavorable PDO, I think we should all take a trip out to the cold negative PDO Pacific waters -- with FLAME THROWERS.

Maybe another Castle Bravo nuclear test out there will help

[JDawg512]

Thanks for the warm welcome and good to be here. My name is Jeremy and I am a born and raised Austinite. I live in south Austin just south of 290/71 only a few blocks from South Austin Hospital. I once was planning a career in meteorology when I was growing up but mathematics have always been my downfall. I did however complete several natural and environmental science courses before switching my degree plan to 2D animation.

We have a nice sea breeze today, as of 5:54, have some storms in and around the Austin area. lots of wind and some thunder and judging by the radar should be getting a nice downpour in a couple of minuets here at my house.

[Rgv20]

Rain is coming down at a pretty good clip at my house!

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
545 PM CDT SAT SEP 7 2013

TXC427-072345-
/O.NEW.KBRO.FA.Y.0055.130907T2245Z-130907T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
STARR-
545 PM CDT SAT SEP 7 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED AN

* ARROYO AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN...
SOUTHERN STARR COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF RIO GRANDE CITY

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 543 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS INDICATED
RAINFALL RATES OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR FROM A CLUSTER OF SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE RIO GRANDE CITY AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS AND INTERSECTIONS. EVENING MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME WHILE DRIVING.

RAPID RISING STREAMS OR ARROYOS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF NEARBY
LOW LYING AREAS.

DON`T BECOME A STATISTIC. TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN!

&&

[Portastorm]

Thanks for the warm welcome and good to be here. My name is Jeremy and I am a born and raised Austinite. I live in south Austin just south of 290/71 only a few blocks from South Austin Hospital. I once was planning a career in meteorology when I was growing up but mathematics have always been my downfall. I did however complete several natural and environmental science courses before switching my degree plan to 2D animation.

We have a nice sea breeze today, as of 5:54, have some storms in and around the Austin area. lots of wind and some thunder and judging by the radar should be getting a nice downpour in a couple of minuets here at my house.

The seabreeze looked so promising on radar but all we saw at the PWC was a few claps of thunder and a trace of rain ... maybe .05 inches at most. I haven't even checked the ol' rain gauge. I'm sure others around town did better based on what radar showed.

I'm not too far west of you, JDawg512. I'm just west of Mopac/Southwest Parkway.

[weatherdude1108]

We cooled down to 83, but ZERO rain (not one drop) on this end. Maybe tomorrow, but wishful thinking.

[weatherdude1108]

Thanks for the warm welcome and good to be here. My name is Jeremy and I am a born and raised Austinite. I live in south Austin just south of 290/71 only a few blocks from South Austin Hospital. I once was planning a career in meteorology when I was growing up but mathematics have always been my downfall. I did however complete several natural and environmental science courses before switching my degree plan to 2D animation.

We have a nice sea breeze today, as of 5:54, have some storms in and around the Austin area. lots of wind and some thunder and judging by the radar should be getting a nice downpour in a couple of minuets here at my house.

Yeah, math is what kept me from majoring in meteorology. I love the science, but am NOT a natural math person, but thankfully I was able to minor in atmospheric science. I have always had a passion for the weather though, and a lot of times imagine myself as "Bill" in TWISTER where he looks at the flag and sky while picking up a handful of dirt and says, ""Going green."

[Tireman4]

Yeah, math is what kept me from majoring in meteorology. I love the science, but am NOT a natural math person, but thankfully I was able to minor in atmospheric science. I have always had a passion for the weather though, and a lot of times imagine myself as "Bill" in TWISTER where he looks at the flag and sky while picking up a handful of dirt and says, ""Going green." [/quote]

And math is what kept ME from majoring in meteorology. My plan was to double major in history/meteorology and then continue on with my MA and PhD in history. Well, I got part of that right (History...PhD...God willing and the creek don't rise will be mine in December 2014). My earliest recollections are getting my father's subscription of Weatherwise magazine in the 1970's and reading it from front to back. Also, I just loved NOAA weather radio. Back then, it was updated each hour by HUMAN voices. Back on topic, it really rained yesterday in Humble. We got some good soaking rains. Hope for more today. Maybe in the future..a front...

[Portastorm]

While it is a bit OT but in similar spirit to some of these posts, I know of a certain Storm2k mod who was so amped about meteorology that he once went and met with the dean of the A&M meteorology school to discuss the possibility of jettisoning his journalism career and moving into being a meteorologist. Said dean explained the high demand which would come from math and physics courses. Said mod realized his liberal arts disposition would mean said career change not advisable.

Back to the weather. I hope the seabreeze is active and moves well inland today. Would love me some tropical downpours at the Portastorm Weather Center!

[horselattitudesfarm]

Whats wrong with this picture?

[Ntxw]

Whats wrong with this picture?

http://img29.imageshack.us/img29/1241/9dqi.jpg

http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/5984/g364.jpg

All of it!

It's not that unusual though, tropics. Atlantic is no help to us but the Pacific is helping them through the SW monsoon.

I see no real big change for Texas throughout the entire run of the Euro. Overall ridge is still centered around the middle of the country for the most part. Transient glancing blow of a cooler air mass sometime mid month but doesn't look impressive for the state. South/SE Texas has the best chance at some moisture from anything that comes from the BOC or western gulf. We had September in July and now September is the new July.

[horselattitudesfarm]

I was reading your post too fast and thought it said "Overall ridge is still centered until the middle of the century" instead of "Overall ridge is still centered around the middle of the country" At the rate we're going it might be true!