Texas Fall 2018

[Yukon Cornelius]

Ill be surprised if it gets out of the 50s today.

[Ralph's Weather]

I'm down to 72 after a high of 82 at 11am. Steady temps through the afternoon then a slow fall to maybe the upper 50s by morning. If clouds hold though the day tomorrow I may have a sub 70 high tomorrow. Upper 50s again likely for Friday morning. Nice to see some fall temps.

[Brent]

So beautiful here i finally want to be outside

Also had another inch of rain in the gauge and its raining again.
I've lost count how much rain just in the last week

[gboudx]

I'm in the Arboretum area of Austin. It was cool and rainy when I left home early this morning. Heavy downpour of fat rain drops when the front pushed through. I brought it with me Austin peeps.

[weatherdude1108]

Saw some rain before lunch, then it quit. Cooler, but it's just now settling in. They mention no change in the extended, but then mention a large-scale pattern change(?). I'm confused(?).

But this discussion had a bit of humor to it. "2Legit 2Quit" and "Mr. Breeze".

000
FXUS64 KEWX 261941
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
241 PM CDT Wed Sep 26 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
This MC Hammer cold front (2Legit 2Quit) is coming through, and
displays well as a nice fine line on visible imagery and radar.
Unlike many fronts passing through South Central Texas, the wind
shift, increase in wind speed, and drop in temperature coincide; no
lags. We still expect convection to blossom east of I-35 as the
front continues south, with only isolated showers and storms behind
the front.

Thursday will feel fall-like with cooler conditions and lower
relative humidity. We maintained low PoPs for the coastal plains on
Thursday and Friday, as mid and upper level longwave troughing will
develop over West Texas, with passing shortwave troughs (more like
small ripples), and the decaying front enough to generate lift and
hence storms.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
There is no Mr. Breeze (i.e., no change in the weather) in the
extended, as the Rex block that has maintained steady-state (and
generally wet) conditions over the CONUS will break down off the West
Coast, leading to large pattern changes this weekend into all of
next week, as a new, stable flow settles in. In general, the
downstream effects of Hurricane Rosa and general troughing over Texas
will maintain rain chances into early next week. While locally heavy
rain is not expected, coverage of rain and moderate amounts may make
a washout of late Friday to early Sunday. Later on next week, a deep
trough in the West and subtropical ridge over the Southeast U.S.
will tug-of-war across the central CONUS. While such an unstable
pattern leaves specific highs/lows/rain chances hard to peg, the
general trend will be toward drier and warmer (but near seasonal
norms) as the week progresses.

[Portastorm]

Our NWS office has been great lately with their AFDs. Today we have MC Hammer and Lynyrd Skynyrd references in the afternoon AFD. Two weeks ago one night we had references to "chupacabra." It's nice to see the men and women at EWX having some fun at their jobs!

Wish they could have coaxed some rain out of the front today though ... talk about an underwhelming frontal passage ... sheesh.

[Brent]

an hour and a half ago it was pouring rain now its bright sunshine and 62 degrees! What a strange weather day...

[weatherdude1108]

:uarrow:

Our NWS office has been great lately with their AFDs. Today we have MC Hammer and Lynyrd Skynyrd references in the afternoon AFD. Two weeks ago one night we had references to "chupacabra." It's nice to see the men and women at EWX having some fun at their jobs!

Wish they could have coaxed some rain out of the front today though ... talk about an underwhelming frontal passage ... sheesh.

Yeah, pretty uneventful. I thought it would be a washout today and tomorrow, based on the original forecasts. Got nothing yesterday, and a 10-15 minute light shower today. It's very green around here though! Nice change from a few weeks ago.

[Haris]

As usual the rain was heaviest and focused in West Trav Co . Got 2/5" of rain today!


September total now at 13.01" ! I made it!

[JDawg512]

As usual the rain was heaviest and focused in West Trav Co . Got 2/5" of rain today!


September total now at 13.01" ! I made it!

Your definetly the winner and really western Travis County needed to be the location where the most rain fell. I ended up with 5.08" so far this month which is great.

[Haris]

As usual the rain was heaviest and focused in West Trav Co . Got 2/5" of rain today!


September total now at 13.01" ! I made it!

Your definetly the winner and really western Travis County needed to be the location where the most rain fell. I ended up with 5.08" so far this month which is great.

Very true . Yeah don't be too jealous of me LOL. Prior to this month, every rain event, I got the lesser of the amounts. I only had 14" YTD before Sep!

[Cpv17]

It’s amazing how many days we’ve had here lately with a 50% chance of rain or higher and it hasn’t rained here. I don’t think I can ever recall of a time that’s happened to me before. Yet again today we missed out on most of the heavier stuff. It just finally started raining here about an hour ago and it’s still raining. It probably won’t amount to much because it’s just a light to moderate rain, but we might end up getting .50” out of it so I guess that’s better than nothing. Good thing we had 12” here for a 3 week stretch that started in late August, but since that happened it’s pretty much been crickets here.

[Yukon Cornelius]

49 this morning. Fall is here, or at least for a couple days.

[weatherdude1108]

It was 62 when I left the house this morning. Coolest since early May here. It actually FEELS like Fall now. There is something nice about cooler temps and brisk winds after a period of rains.

[bubba hotep]

A NOAA analysis released today finds significantly higher rainfall frequency values in parts of Texas, redefining the amount of rainfall it takes to qualify as a 100-year or 1000-year event.

The study, published as NOAA Atlas 14, Volume 11 Precipitation-Frequency Atlas of the United States, Texas, found increased values in parts of Texas, including larger cities such as Austin and Houston, that will result in changes to the rainfall amounts that define 100-year events, which are those that on average occur every 100 years or have a one percent chance of happening in any given year. In Austin, for example, 100-year rainfall amounts for 24 hours increased as much as three inches up to 13 inches. 100-year estimates around Houston increased from 13 inches to 18 inches and values previously classified as 100-year events are now much more frequent 25-year events.

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-updates-texas-rainfall-frequency-values

[dhweather]

:uarrow:

Our NWS office has been great lately with their AFDs. Today we have MC Hammer and Lynyrd Skynyrd references in the afternoon AFD. Two weeks ago one night we had references to "chupacabra." It's nice to see the men and women at EWX having some fun at their jobs!

Wish they could have coaxed some rain out of the front today though ... talk about an underwhelming frontal passage ... sheesh.

Some of the older guys don't have much of a sense of humor when it comes to products, they want it 100% professional. I'm glad to see them have a little fun with it, particularly since the next two weeks appear to be a broken record.

[Cpv17]

Picked up .4” last night. Not much, but I’ll take it. Rain chances continue to look strong the next couple weeks. Maybe this time I can get a couple inches

[South Texas Storms]

We will need to keep an eye on the EPAC as we are now getting into the recurve season down there. Long range models are showing the potential for the next storm (Sergio) to get picked up into the next long-wave trough and possibly bring a heavy rain risk to TX by next weekend.

[weatherdude1108]

I've never been to Seattle, but I guess "Seattle-like weather" will come visit me next Monday through Wednesday.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 271945
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
245 PM CDT Thu Sep 27 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
We`re reaching the turn of cooler, drier conditions behind the first
cold front of the fall, and looking down the stretch toward another
wet period from tomorrow into the weekend. Tonight will be cool and
pleasant, with clear skies for most places, most of the night. Warm
and humid return (southerly) flow from the Gulf will work from south
to north across the area on Friday. There are low chances for
scattered showers along the coastal plains, as enough moist air and
instability may be in place for daytime heating to kick off a few
storms. The chances for rain will expand to just about everywhere
along and south of U.S. 290 on Friday night. However, rainfall
amounts should be relatively light.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
The main action will be Saturday and Sunday as mid and upper level
troughing over Texas and persistent Gulf flow set up for widespread
rounds of light to moderate convection. Without a focusing low-level
boundary (like a front), and no deep shortwave troughs, we expect
rainfall to be generally light. Many places should receive less than
1/4 inch for the entire weekend, but places along and south of U.S.
90 could get more like 1/2 to 1 inch total.

The troughing continues, but shifts west as a huge longwave trough
barrels into the West Coast, and Pacific Hurricane Rosa approaches
Baja California. Texas will be on the downstream side of these
features, resulting in weak shortwave troughs (i.e., ripples) passing
overhead every 18-24 hours. The result will be daily rain chances
Monday through Wednesday, but relatively low PoPs and only light to
moderate rain when it does fall. Think Seattle-like weather. The
Atlantic subtropical ridge (aka Bermuda High) will build from east to
west across the southern states during the week, eventually
returning warmer and drier conditions for late next week/weekend.

[Brent]

hopefully this warmup coming will be short-lived(near 90, blah)... seeing hints about next weekend too