C/S TX Weather: Seasonal with some rains

[Portastorm]

Happy days ... received about 2.25 inches since midnight in SW Austin!

A few low-water crossings flooded around the city but for the most part ... just welcomed rain.

[somethingfunny]

Reporting from the northern frontier (Dallas)....

Just wanted to let you guys know that this cold front means business. We haven't gotten out of the 60s today! Enjoy it while it lasts!

[Shoshana]

It's really chilly out!
Don't know how much rain we've gotten - I forgot to put the gauge back out last night after the yard got mowed....

[Portastorm]

Interesting snippet below from this afternoon's AFD out of NWS New Braunfels. I have seen those Euro runs and the mets are kidding ... next weekend could be quite a wet one for us in central and south Texas!

*****
LOOKING INTO LATE NEXT WEEKEND...A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
EVENT COULD UNFOLD. THE ECMWF SHOWED EXCELLENT RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY FROM THE 12Z CYCLE YESTERDAY TO 00Z TODAY...TO 12Z
THIS MORNING SHOWING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION SHOWS THIS
CYCLONE GETTING PICKED-UP BY A DEVELOPING WEST COAST TROUGH LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THEN MOVING ACROSS MEXICO ON SUNDAY TOWARD
OUR AREA. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...BUT
IS LATER IN THE TIMING. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH 30 POPS ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR FOR NEXT SUNDAY...WHICH IS ABOVE CLIMO AND
RELATIVELY HIGH FOR A DAY 7 FORECAST.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting snippet below from this afternoon's AFD out of NWS New Braunfels. I have seen those Euro runs and the mets are kidding ... next weekend could be quite a wet one for us in central and south Texas!

*****
LOOKING INTO LATE NEXT WEEKEND...A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
EVENT COULD UNFOLD. THE ECMWF SHOWED EXCELLENT RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY FROM THE 12Z CYCLE YESTERDAY TO 00Z TODAY...TO 12Z
THIS MORNING SHOWING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION SHOWS THIS
CYCLONE GETTING PICKED-UP BY A DEVELOPING WEST COAST TROUGH LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THEN MOVING ACROSS MEXICO ON SUNDAY TOWARD
OUR AREA. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...BUT
IS LATER IN THE TIMING. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH 30 POPS ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR FOR NEXT SUNDAY...WHICH IS ABOVE CLIMO AND
RELATIVELY HIGH FOR A DAY 7 FORECAST.

Actually Port, all the TX WFO's are talking about this EPAC system already. We shall see.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
442 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2009

TXC053-299-282345-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FA.Y.0107.090928T2142Z-090928T2345Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
442 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL BURNET COUNTY...
LLANO COUNTY...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT.

* AT 438 PM CDT SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR
CASTELL TO LLANO TO LAKE BUCHANAN AND BURNET WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES.

[Shoshana]

2.5" of rain overnight!

The weeds are exceedingly happy!

[Portastorm]

Wow, nice! We didn't get nearly that much in SW Austin ... most of ours came this morning. I'd say about a quarter-inch fell this morning, of course right during the time the kids were going to school. But hey, I'm not complaining. Let it rain!

[Shoshana]

Ours was all before 7am. We had some seriously close lightning strikes - the kind where you see the flash and hear/feel the boom at the same time. Never lost power tho.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting Update from EWX this morning. They seem to be a bit bullish on the EPAC system. We shall see...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1055 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

.UPDATE...
WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH AND WEST OF SAN ANTONIO RESULTED IN
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA HAS DEW
POINTS RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. A BRIEF AND WEAK THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA WHERE INSOLATION WILL BE BEST. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL OTHERWISE PRECLUDE CONVECTION WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS
LIKELY TO HOLD TEMPS OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY PROJECTED. AS THE FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO
WASH OUT, THE EVENING WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET; HOWEVER, DEEP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING ENERGY ALOFT COMING IN FROM THE WEST
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PROGRESSIVE
RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE EAST WITH THE BASE OF A PROGRESSIVE
NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH BEGINNING TO ENHANCE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR
THURSDAY. A BROAD AREA OF DEVELOPING TROPICAL ACTIVITY WEST OF
MEXICO SHOULD ENHANCE THIS RAIN POTENTIAL BY INCREASING PACIFIC
MOISTURE INTO AN AREA THAT WOULD NORMALLY BE A DRY SLOT REGION.
THE TROPICAL PATTERN WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR LATER
PERIODS, SINCE A FRONTAL ZONE SETTING UP THIS WEEKEND COULD MAKE
FOR A CLASSIC OCTOBER HEAVY RAIN PATTERN. MANY UNCERTAINTIES
REMAIN, WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THE
STRENGTH, DEPTH AND LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.

[Portastorm]

Caught my eye as well this morning when I saw that.

The Euro, as you know, has been fairly consistent the last few days in bringing a tremendous amount of Pacific moisture across Mexico and into Texas by Monday.

And I don't need to tell you Houston folks about what stalled frontal boundaries with tropical moisture from the Pacific can do in October!

[srainhoutx]

How could we ever forget Rosa 1994!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Rosa_(1994)

[somethingfunny]

Are the models all basing their rainfall predictions off an assumption that 91E will develop into something larger, or does it even matter when we're discussing moisture content?

[Portastorm]

Are the models all basing their rainfall predictions off an assumption that 91E will develop into something larger, or does it even matter when we're discussing moisture content?

Here's a link to today's 12z Euro. See for yourself. Looks like 91E is developed to some extent but I cannot tell if the Euro thinks it'll be a full fledged system or not.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

The last 0z and 12z GFS runs, btw, show similar scenarios.

[srainhoutx]

I think it's more related to moisture inflow from the disturbance, rather than development ATT. 91 E has really never been forecast to be a "strong" system. With that said, the frontal boundry and it's location along with the mid and upper level flow from th SW will be the key.

From the 12Z QPF map from the HPC you can see some of what is being discussed.

[srainhoutx]

Hmmm...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
355 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-010900-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
355 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM A
DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TONIGHT
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER
SOUTH TEXAS EARLY FRIDAY...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.

RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY BY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS TYPE OF HEAVY RAINFALL
PATTERN WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OF 2
TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OVER 10 INCHES.

THOSE WITH WEEKEND PLANS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER CLOSELY...AND
PLAN AHEAD FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.

[Portastorm]

In their afternoon AFD, NWS New Braunfels talks more specifically about the potential heavy rain threat. They do point out that it is possible that the tropical moisture shears out more quickly than what the models are progging ... in which case the rain totals, while welcomed, would not be nearly as substantial. We shall see.

Thousands of folks coming to Austin this weekend for the Austin City Limits music festival. This ought to be interesting!

[Portastorm]

Looks like we may have some severe weather on tap later today/this evening.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2053.html

[lrak]

Looks like more rain on the way with a persistant shear zone overahead. Interesting to note that here in Austin, we're 8.82 inches above normal rainfall for the year. Also interesting to note that every year the Spurs have won the NBA title, a hurricane has hit Texas!

Maybe the remnants of a pacific storm will help the Spurs, this upcoming weekend sure looks wet for TX.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/loop-wv.html

Seems like Olaf is going more north than the forecast.

[srainhoutx]

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
844 PM CDT THU OCT 01 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0840 PM TSTM WND GST FLORENCE 30.84N 97.79W
10/01/2009 M80 MPH WILLIAMSON TX AMATEUR RADIO

SOME DAMAGE REPORTED. EXTENT UNKNOWN