Texas Summer-2015

[Ntxw]

Yes, it is possible especially with rain. 12z/euro is 82-85 for highs and upper 60s for lows with clouds on Thursday.

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Many weeks of dry weather looks to come to an end this week as strong upper ridge is replaced with fairly impressive troughing for summer.

Upcoming pattern will also open the Gulf to potential tropical influences.

Pattern changes are already underway with the upper ridge having weakened and shifted westward and a downstream upper trough forming over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite images and coastal radars show extensive convection over the northern Gulf of Mexico on the eastern side of the developing upper level trough. PWS over the central and northern Gulf have surged into the 2.0 inch range and this slug of moisture is starting to move inland along the upper TX coast and was sampled by the AM Lake Charles sounding showing a PW of near 2.0 inches.

Expect the Gulf moisture to continue to progress inland as the upper trough moving slowly westward which will support an active seabreeze front this afternoon. Best rain chances will be coastward of US 59 with more isolated activity inland. Better moisture will be in place on Monday and expect more widespread coverage of storms along the seabreeze and an earlier start to the activity.

Mid week pattern favors the formation of an unusually strong mid latitude trough for middle August and the southward advance of a decent cold front with this trough. Upper ridge along the US west coast amplifies and results in deep downstream trough formation over the central US. Cold front will arrive into TX Tuesday and likely stall near/over SE TX on Wednesday into Thursday. Deep tropical moisture will remain in place along and ahead of this feature and support a good chance of wetting rainfall over a large portion of the region. Could see a severe threat with this front since the jet dynamics will be displaced far south for August. Chances for organized rainfall also increase during this period…not looking at flooding rainfall, but certainly heavy rainfall will be possible.

Tropics:
Tropical wave moving slowly westward north of the Caribbean Sea this morning continues to experience strong wind shear. Overall upper air pattern will undergo transition in support of deep layer ridging developing from the central Atlantic into the SE US or a long fetch ESE to E steering flow from the deep tropics into the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. We will have to closely watch incoming tropical waves from the east as they will likely be trapped under the building ridge and head generally toward the Gulf of Mexico. While conditions over the Atlantic remains modest at best, the Gulf looks fairly favorable over the next week or so.

96L over the far eastern Atlantic is showing some weak signs of organization this morning and NHC currently gives the system a 40% chance of development as it moves generally westward over the next 5 days. There is some weak model support for formation of this system, but thus far this season the El Nino enhanced shear has ended the chances of systems in the deep tropics.

[Ntxw]

Hey guys, the -EPO is going to tank .

Raised heights into the GOA/Alaska. The unusual trof coming into the conus is related (thank you typhoons!)

[kenfa03]

Hey guys, the -EPO is going to tank .

Raised heights into the GOA/Alaska. The unusual trof coming into the conus is related (thank you typhoons!)

Rain?

[Ntxw]

Not certain on rain, but it would mean more troughs and fronts.

[texas1836]

So this means stage 2 of the Super El Nino???

[texas1836]

At least I hope so.

[Ntxw]

Speaking of El Nino, this week's update came out today at 2C. A rare feat last accomplished by 1997-1998 event. 2C is the unofficial threshold typically famed for Super events.

A couple of events selected to compare at their peaks, all of them generally peaked during the months of Oct, Nov, or Dec meaning this one has a few months more to peak.

1957- 1.7C
1972- 2.0C
1982- 2.1C
1997- 2.3C
2002- 1.3C
2004- 0.7C
2006- 1.0C
2009- 1.3C

[Brent]

A taste of fall

[JayDT]

:uarrow: Yes, it is possible especially with rain. 12z/euro is 82-85 for highs and upper 60s for lows with clouds on Thursday.

Thanks for replying! Wow that sounds perfect! Especially after all this hot, boring weather. Is it still looking like a possibility based on today's models?

[TarrantWx]

A taste of fall

Where's the 'like' button???

[CajunMama]

Y'all get cooler weather AND blue bell ice cream? So not fair

[aggiecutter]

Heavy rains for NE Texas:

[weatherdude1108]

Nice change!



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015/

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE A POTENTIAL EARLY
SEASON COLD FRONT MOVING NEAR THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER
LOW WITH ANOMALIES AROUND -5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SEND A RATHER STRONG AUGUST FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEST PRECIP
CHANCES WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR ANY
SEA BREEZE CONVECTION AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT. WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH BUT SHOULD BE SLOWING ITS SPEED BEFORE EVENTUALLY
STALLING. CLIMATOLOGY DOES NOT SUPPORT A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA...SO ONE WOULD EXPECT THIS FRONT TO STALL IN OUR CWA OR JUST
NORTH. VARIOUS MEMBERS OF GUIDANCE ARE INCONSISTENT ON EXACTLY HOW
FAR THE FRONT WILL GET...BUT ALL AGREE THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE
CWA BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTH TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE SAME LOCATION AND
THIS WILL AID IN RAIN COVERAGE. WITH UPPER SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION...A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
2 INCHES SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SOILS HAVE REALLY DRIED OUT ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
ABSORB A LOT OF RAIN BEFORE RUNOFF BECOMES AN ISSUE. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR STORMS WITH VERY HIGH PRECIP RATES FOR ANY POTENTIAL
PROBLEMS. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY MCV
FORMATION...BUT THESE ARE TYPICALLY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST IN
ADVANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY SLIDES WEST. UPPER LEVELS HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY AS A RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL END RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES
FOR ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE SEA BREEZE. BY
MONDAY...THE GFS IS BRINGING ANOTHER FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS BEHIND
ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE BUILDING
RIDGE...THIS FRONT SHOULD HAVE LESS OF A CHANCE OF MAKING IT INTO
OUR AREA.

[Ntxw]

Guidance is still showing a -EPO tank, consequently -WPO from super typhoons, that seems quite impressive. Too bad this isn't winter otherwise we would be looking at a significant Arctic outbreak . However it is late summer so in response we get below normal temperatures, deep trof in the central conus and rain chances!

[TarrantWx]

Guidance is still showing a -EPO tank, consequently -WPO from super typhoons, that seems quite impressive. Too bad this isn't winter otherwise we would be looking at a significant Arctic outbreak . However it is late summer so in response we get below normal temperatures, deep trof in the central conus and rain chances!

Is the -EPO the result of recurving typhoons? If so, is it possible that recurving typhoons will continue into late fall and early winter given the above average W. Pac which in turn could lead to significant cold fronts?

[Ntxw]

Guidance is still showing a -EPO tank, consequently -WPO from super typhoons, that seems quite impressive. Too bad this isn't winter otherwise we would be looking at a significant Arctic outbreak . However it is late summer so in response we get below normal temperatures, deep trof in the central conus and rain chances!

Is the -EPO the result of recurving typhoons? If so, is it possible that recurving typhoons will continue into late fall and early winter given the above average W. Pac which in turn could lead to significant cold fronts?

Yes it is a direct result of. Remember Nuri last November? Became an extratropical Aleutian low monster same as Atsani is forecasted to be. Take model forecasts with a grain of salt until they can see this thing spinning up there.



Here was the GFS forecast map from Nuri

[Ntxw]

Euro says low to mid 80s and some rain Thursday. Warms up modestly to mid 90s by the weekend, followed by another front early next week with more sub 90 highs. At the end of the run in la la land a deep trough digging into the northern Rockies with cooler air is marching southeastward. Summer cancel?

Not 100% sure, always a risk but I'd bet DFW has seen it's last 100F day in 2015.

[aggiecutter]

[TarrantWx]

Guidance is still showing a -EPO tank, consequently -WPO from super typhoons, that seems quite impressive. Too bad this isn't winter otherwise we would be looking at a significant Arctic outbreak . However it is late summer so in response we get below normal temperatures, deep trof in the central conus and rain chances!

Is the -EPO the result of recurving typhoons? If so, is it possible that recurving typhoons will continue into late fall and early winter given the above average W. Pac which in turn could lead to significant cold fronts?

Yes it is a direct result of. Remember Nuri last November? Became an extratropical Aleutian low monster same as Atsani is forecasted to be. Take model forecasts with a grain of salt until they can see this thing spinning up there.



Here was the GFS forecast map from Nuri

I remember Nuri well which is why I posed the question. Really happy to see that it's happening all over again. Here's to many recurving typhoons the rest of the year!