Texas Fall-2014

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah, I don't really understand the pessimism here. Sure, there will always be rain holes due to mesoscale processes that are tough to forecast in advance. But overall, some parts of Texas have received above normal rainfall so far this year which is much more than we could say in 2011.

Plus, the long range computer models have consistently been forecasting above normal precipitation across much of Texas from November to March. I'm thinking we will have a cool and wet winter this year which should help out with the remaining drought conditions across the state.

[Ntxw]

On lighter note away from Texas, snow cover is advancing. There is an index called the SAI (snow advance index) produced by Dr. Juda Cohen that has proven to have some skill in predicting the winter overall state of the AO/NAO. I spent some time over the summer looking at this information and it does indeed show some correlation. In the past several decades years with very strong SAI (1976-1977-2002-2009) have become very snowy winters and resulted in severe AO/NAO (and consequently -EPO). The research basically states the advancement of snow cover in Eurasia during October can give sight. The faster the advance the more likelihood of a blocky winter vice versa. And as a insight, it's not about having more snow cover that doesn't have value rather how fast it grows from the beginning of the month towards the end. Ideal would be start below normal and end up above normal.



October begins this week so lets see how this stands up. The AO/NAO isn't the be all end all of winter, as we saw last year. But being able to predict it is a good tool.

Hefty read if you're willing

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/climate/STI ... 062211.pdf

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I will read that article in a moment, looks interesting. Maue posted on twitter the potential for a 940 MB low centered just north of the Aleutian islands. This should cause a major front into the lower 48 about a week after that right? Also starting to see the Canadian snow pack build up nicely.

[dhweather]

It's really disappointing to see what this thread has become. For several months, more times than not it's become a whine fest about people's backyards instead of productive discussion as if any of us here controls the weather. We're in a midst of a long time drought, no one denies this it's pretty obvious with the PDO. There is a drought monitor thread for that kind of discussion.

Well, when you watch thousands of dollars and countless hours of your time go to waste, you worry if the foundation on your home is going to crack, your gates on your fences don't work any more because the soil is so dry, it is a problem. I may be wrong, however I suspect many property owners feel the same way. It has had a profound impact on Texas weather. Just as we discuss the PDO here, we discuss drought here, because it all impacts Texas.

[Ntxw]

I will read that article in a moment, looks interesting. Maue posted on twitter the potential for a 940 MB low centered just north of the Aleutian islands. This should cause a major front into the lower 48 about a week after that right? Also starting to see the Canadian snow pack build up nicely.

Thats been the chatter going around for week 2 . I've been looking at the euro weeklies and they have some anomalous below average 850s coming down

[Ntxw]

For everyone following that SAI index, the ensembles and cfsv2 are forecasting a negative AO for October. The two are interconnected as -AO spreads snow cover across the mid latitudes vs +AO towards the pole.

[Kludge]

For everyone following that SAI index, the ensembles and cfsv2 are forecasting a negative AO for October. The two are interconnected as -AO spreads snow cover across the mid latitudes vs +AO towards the pole.

In that case, please put me down as an -AO fan. Bring the cool. Hurry.

[ravyrn]

It's really disappointing to see what this thread has become. For several months, more times than not it's become a whine fest about people's backyards instead of productive discussion as if any of us here controls the weather. We're in a midst of a long time drought, no one denies this it's pretty obvious with the PDO. There is a drought monitor thread for that kind of discussion.

To be fair, this thread is dedicated to Texas Weather and some users simply reporting about conditions in their specific location is fair game. Some have been less fortunate than others and I think they're entitled to their opinions or complaints. The "whine fest" you are referring to is simply users reporting conditions in their area (backyards) and I think they have a right to do so. It looks like September will go on record as the driest for the DFW station and that's pretty significant. The drought is real and there are many reservoirs throughout Texas that are still well below capacity.

I respect and admire you, Ntxw, as you're one of the greatest, if not the greatest, contributors in the Texas threads. But I think you're allowing yourself to get a little too worked up about users reporting the facts for their area. The people complaining about conditions in their area are submitting data and models to validate their concerns. So I feel that they are contributing to the discussion and see no reason it should be taken to the drought monitor thread when the drought is occurring in Texas and this a Texas thread. I understand you disagree with their pessimism, but cut them some slack. And please, keep on sharing your thoughts, knowledge, and explanations with those of us not as informed as you in the mechanisms that make our weather. As every user in these Texas threads greatly appreciates you sharing your thoughts and knowledge with us.

[Portastorm]

Alright, I'm wearing moderator hat now as I write this and I ask that you all read carefully:

First, let's stop the calling out of individual members in the collective public forum. If you have comments you want to direct to a particular member here, send them a PM. I've seen way too much of this in the last few pages and it needs to stop.

Second, we all have to realize that once we hit the "submit" button on a post, we shape and mold what others here think of us. It impacts our online credibility and it impacts the overall quality of the discussion. We are here as a forum to let folks openly express their thoughts about weather so long as the rules are followed. Generally our rules are pretty laid back, I think ... so, the discussion hopefully is free flowing. Nevertheless, we also want an intelligent discussion where folks back up their statements with fact or data to support their arguments. We have a wide variety of weather knowledge on this board from newbies to professional meteorologists. Regardless, we all gain when we all dedicate ourselves to raising the level of the discussion. So if you start writing generalized statements about your "take" on the weather, don't be surprised if you get challenged and asked "where's your support for this argument? why do you believe this? where's your data to support that assertion?"

Finally, I've seen some comments about "whining." Well, truth be told, many of us on here whine if we don't get the kind of weather we want. All of us have collectively whined about a lack of rain for the last few years. I whine about getting no major snow/ice events in Austin. I think there is a certain allowance here for that to occur. We should be able to express our frustration in a forum shared with fellow weather enthusiasts. But at the same time, we should also realize there's a consideration to keep a limit to it and the more we do it, the more likely we are to annoy other readers/members. And over a period of time not keeping that limit in mind tends to ratchet up emotions and problems occur. It's not bad at all on these Texas weather threads but when the tropics get active again, try going on some of those threads. Trust me, it keeps us mods very busy. So, all I'm saying is, think twice before you write and submit posts and let's give each other the benefit of the doubt.

Thank you. And if you have questions or comments, PM me or one of the other mods or admins.

[weatherdude1108]

Speaking of Texas Fall Weather, be on the lookout Thursday night in north and central Texas for some possible severe weather (large hail, high winds). Then some nice cooler days and cool nights to follow.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
648 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ON THURSDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY POTENT MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. WE COULD SEE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING REMAINS STOUT AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR REGION...A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL
MENTION THE POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 71 IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL
BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION... GIVEN MOISTURE POOLING
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT...WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN APPEARS MOST FAVORED FOR AREAS EAST
OF A KERRVILLE TO PEARSALL LINE. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2". RAIN CHANCES DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY AND WE/LL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR ALL
AREAS... EXCEPT ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES COOL
TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON SUNDAY AND A WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MOISTURE SPREADS BACK INTO
THE REGION...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. FOR NOW...WE/LL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR MOST AREAS...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

[Ntxw]

The drought is real and there are many reservoirs throughout Texas that are still well below capacity.

I live in DFW, I follow all weather intently. I know the drought is very real I feel it just as much as my neighbor and other posters here, just because I don't dwell on it doesn't mean I'm ignorant to it. Just as there is drought in Texas there were also floods. During the Austin flooding we lost a Police officer to it, where were the posts on that? The Sheriff deputy's vehicle was swept away.

But this conversation needs to end here, I've already come to terms and dealt with it personally. Portastorm has laid it out pretty clear so lets get back to figuring out when our next chance of rain will be.

[dhweather]

Last night on TV, they went over the variances in precipitation across North Texas. DFW at the all time record for September at 0.06", on the other end of the Scale, Paris had over 4" of rain in September. The Red River counties came out much better in September than the rest of the FWD CWA.

Thursday looks to be our one shot at rain in the next two weeks.

[Ntxw]

Keep your eyes peeled for a very strong front, not the one coming later this week. That one is nice but is aimed towards the east coast. The one after is the dagger down the central part of North America.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Liking what i see.

[Rgv20]

Next weekend (Oct 10-14) I'm going to Denton, hopefully its Sunny and Cool!

Nice summary courtesy of the NWS in Brownsville of the Rains we received on September...http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bro/?n=2014event_lateseptemberfloods

September 26, Evening: Rio Grande City Washout
Early afternoon heating, boundaries/storms moving toward the west and southwest from the South Texas Brush Country, and a wave of upper level energy rotating from southwest to northeast each combined to create a nearly stationary band of torrential rain producing thunderstorms over Rio Grande City and nearby locations. Nuisance flooding began during the late afternoon, and significant, life and property flooding began in Rio Grande City before sunset. Flooding peaked after sunset and continued through at least 11 PM, including water levels on the normally low flowing or dry Arroyo Los Olmos exceeding bank full by 2 to 3 feet, and several feet of flowing water that flooded the Las Lomas neighborhood. Several cars were partially submerged, and at least one house had extensive inundation. Observations and radar estimated suggested 6 to 8+ inches of rain fell during the long duration event. In addition to the flooded Arroyo Los Olmos, the river stage at Rio Grande City spiked as well but remained well below the danger level – though flow rates and water level in the Rio Grande were harrowing.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS indicates mid 50s for SE TX this weekend. Front arrives early Friday morning in Houston:

[South Texas Storms]

Strong thunderstorms will be possible along the cold front across central Texas tomorrow night. The main threats will be strong winds and hail. This weekend is looking nice with cooler and drier conditions. Here is what one computer model thinks the radar will look like at 10 pm tomorrow night:

[Ntxw]

Here's another piece of evidence of the global pattern shift. All of the reaction of the -AO I've posted, now to the North Pacific. Ridging is going to build there towards Alaska. Why is this? Well this week's cold front is an indirect buckling of the jet stream in response to typhoon Kammuri last week recurving. The timing is perfect and right now there is a likely super typhoon to be that is very large (Phanfone) experience explosive intensification soon to recurve near Japan. Week 2 cold front.

[asd123]

NTXW: This perfect blend of teleconnections (extremely negative AO, slightly positive PNA, decently negative NAO, and now the recurving major typhoon) what does this mean for the weather across the country (especially the southeast)?

[Ntxw]

NTXW: This perfect blend of teleconnections (extremely negative AO, slightly positive PNA, decently negative NAO, and now the recurving major typhoon) what does this mean for the weather across the country (especially the southeast)?

The the AO/NAO going very negative, ability for colder air to penetrate deeper into the CONUS is greater and has more staying power. Still have to see what the Pacific does if this is polar origin or something more out of the Ocean. Global AAM is now rising after a week being low which means westerlies will kick off bigger storm systems across the US. Each one of these systems will feature some severe weather, and cooler air on the other side. I would expect some seasonably cold air to make it's way through the SE and parts of Florida as well by mid month.