SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[Extremeweatherguy]

Brrr..

At 12:39am my temperature is sitting at a chilly 49.1˚ here in north Houston.

[Extremeweatherguy]

At 4:17am I am sitting at 42.4˚ here in Spring and it is 44˚ at IAH, 43˚ at Hooks and 41˚ in Conroe.

By sunrise, most areas will likely be hovering right around the 40-degree mark.

[Johnny]

At 7 am this morning, I officially hit 38.7 here at my house so I guess you could say 39 degrees! I'm sitting at 40.1 right now at 7:50 am. It feels really cold with the wind blowing.

[southerngale]

Ooooh.... it sure is chilly outside! Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!

The 2 Weatherbug stations closest to me had lows of 38° and 40° so I assume my temp was one of those, or in between. What a nice change from yesterday's 800° when I woke up.

[CajunMama]

brrr...it's chilly out there! 49 and 42/wind chill!

[Yankeegirl]

When I got up this morning it was 42. Now it has warmed up to a balmy 50! The weather is warmer in New York for the Parade!!

[KatDaddy]

Looking like we will see a large amount of rain for entire weekend

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1037 AM CST THU NOV 22 2007

.UPDATE...
AREA IS SURROUNDED BY CLOUD AND THESE SHOULD INVADE THE AREA FROM
THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WEAK TROUGHINESS AROUND 850 MB CAN BE
SEEN ON UA AND EVIDENCE OF IT IS THE SHRA MOVING INTO
JACKSON...COLORADO COUNTIES FROM THE WEST. HAVE NUDGED UP POPS IN
THE WESTERN ZONES JUST 20 PERCENT. HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER
IN THE WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WERE A FEW DEGREES LOWER
THAN WE HAD IN THE GRIDS SO HAVE MADE A FEW TWEEKS THERE.

AFTER THIS S/W TO THE NW PASSES BY EXPECT TO SEE THE SHRA ALONG
THE 850 BOUNDARY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE IN THE DRIER AIR OVER THE
CWA. BUT THE RAIN THREAT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES AS THE MID LEVELS MOISTENS UP. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT
AT BEST. VERY IMPRESSIVE RAIN SHIELD SHOULD BE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

[Ptarmigan]

Looking like we will see a large amount of rain for entire weekend

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1037 AM CST THU NOV 22 2007

.UPDATE...
AREA IS SURROUNDED BY CLOUD AND THESE SHOULD INVADE THE AREA FROM
THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WEAK TROUGHINESS AROUND 850 MB CAN BE
SEEN ON UA AND EVIDENCE OF IT IS THE SHRA MOVING INTO
JACKSON...COLORADO COUNTIES FROM THE WEST. HAVE NUDGED UP POPS IN
THE WESTERN ZONES JUST 20 PERCENT. HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER
IN THE WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WERE A FEW DEGREES LOWER
THAN WE HAD IN THE GRIDS SO HAVE MADE A FEW TWEEKS THERE.

AFTER THIS S/W TO THE NW PASSES BY EXPECT TO SEE THE SHRA ALONG
THE 850 BOUNDARY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE IN THE DRIER AIR OVER THE
CWA. BUT THE RAIN THREAT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES AS THE MID LEVELS MOISTENS UP. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT
AT BEST. VERY IMPRESSIVE RAIN SHIELD SHOULD BE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

Looks like another wet weekend.

[vbhoutex]

Looking like we will see a large amount of rain for entire weekend

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1037 AM CST THU NOV 22 2007

.UPDATE...
AREA IS SURROUNDED BY CLOUD AND THESE SHOULD INVADE THE AREA FROM
THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WEAK TROUGHINESS AROUND 850 MB CAN BE
SEEN ON UA AND EVIDENCE OF IT IS THE SHRA MOVING INTO
JACKSON...COLORADO COUNTIES FROM THE WEST. HAVE NUDGED UP POPS IN
THE WESTERN ZONES JUST 20 PERCENT. HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER
IN THE WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WERE A FEW DEGREES LOWER
THAN WE HAD IN THE GRIDS SO HAVE MADE A FEW TWEEKS THERE.

AFTER THIS S/W TO THE NW PASSES BY EXPECT TO SEE THE SHRA ALONG
THE 850 BOUNDARY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE IN THE DRIER AIR OVER THE
CWA. BUT THE RAIN THREAT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES AS THE MID LEVELS MOISTENS UP. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT
AT BEST. VERY IMPRESSIVE RAIN SHIELD SHOULD BE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

Looks like another wet weekend.

I saw one graphic on a local weathercast-Channel 13 I think- that showed 3.5"-4" of rain from much of our area.

[Ptarmigan]

I saw one graphic on a local weathercast-Channel 13 I think- that showed 3.5"-4" of rain from much of our area.

I saw graphics that it will be raining a lot, especially on Saturday.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The afternoon AFD from the NWS is quite interesting...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
340 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2007

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE REGION (EXCEPT FOR HOUSTON/TRINITY AREA)
WITH SLOWLY INCREASING PW...NEARING 1" ON THE COAST AND .75" IN
THE NORTH. PRESSURES FALLING QUICKLY OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS (DROPPED 5 MB SINCE 8 AM) AS PRESSURES ACROSS NETX HAVE
FALLEN AT THE SAME PACE AND THIS SHOULD BE HELPING TO MINIMIZE THE
WIND INCREASE ALONG THE COAST BUT WITH RIDGE WEAKENING TO WANE AND
THE COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS TO CONTINUE EXPECTING THE WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE QUICKLY TONIGHT AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE CROSSES
THE REGION. EXPECT TO SEE RAPID DESTABILIZATION OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT SO PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY TRANSITION OVER TO SHRA/TSRA. STRONG LIFT
COMES TO BEAR ON SETX IN THE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
THE HIGH POPS/LOCALLY +RA SATURDAY-SUNDAY. PW FORECAST TO PEAK
AROUND 1.4-1.7" WITH STRONG LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE MAGNITUDE AND TIMING/TRACK OF THE COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS. IF THE GFS SHOULD PAN OUT SOME MARGINAL POTENTIAL
FOR NEAR SURFACE BASED SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE COAST AND MORE
LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE A MORE LONG LIVED
MESOCYCLONES APPEAR POSSIBLE. WILL NOT GO WITH ANY MENTION OF
SEVERE IN ZONES YET AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY BE EMBEDED IN THE RAIN SHIELD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH NEARS. ATTM THINK THAT SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STREET FLOODING AFTER GETTING A GOOD SOAKING
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE PACKAGE UNTIL SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AS
THOUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER TROUGH PROGRESSION WILL SWEEP THROUGH AND
BRING PRECIP TO AN END BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME WRAP AROUND CLOUD
COVER (MAINLY NORTH). WINDS RELAXING MONDAY AND COULD HAVE SOME
FOG ISSUES. LOWERED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT- WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RETURNING MOISTURE WEDNESDAY AND A PERSISTENT L/W TROUGH IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES SHOULD USHER IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
REPEAT SCENARIO OF FROPA THURSDAY WITH COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OVER
NEXT WEEKEND. ECMWF/GFS POINT TO A POSSIBLE COLD OUT BREAK TAKING
SHAPE FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND AROUND THE 7TH

Looks like they think we could see a repeat of the cold/wet weather by the end of next week or the weekend and then possibly a "cold out break" (whatever that means?) by the end of the weekend.

BTW - They said "around the 7th", but I think they meant to say "2nd". December 2nd would be next Sunday (a.k.a. the end of next weekend) while the 7th would be a Friday two weeks from now...and I doubt they would be talking about something that far in the future. lol.

[jasons2k]

At 4:17am I am sitting at 42.4˚ here in Spring and it is 44˚ at IAH, 43˚ at Hooks and 41˚ in Conroe.

By sunrise, most areas will likely be hovering right around the 40-degree mark.

I thought you were in Eastland? Are you able to get your obs remotely?

[Extremeweatherguy]

At 4:17am I am sitting at 42.4˚ here in Spring and it is 44˚ at IAH, 43˚ at Hooks and 41˚ in Conroe.

By sunrise, most areas will likely be hovering right around the 40-degree mark.

I thought you were in Eastland? Are you able to get your obs remotely?

No. I was here in the early morning (notice my post was at 4:17am Thursday) and was in Eastland during the evening.

It would be pretty neat if I could get my obs remotely though. lol.

[CajunMama]

Hopefully saturday night won't be too nasty. Last home football game.

[Yankeegirl]

Looks like rain is already beginning to pop up on the radar...

[srainhoutx]

Wow. Thunder and Lightening woke me up this morning early. HGX AFD mentions Isolated Severe and Isolated Tornado and Heavy Rainfall this morning...

FXUS64 KHGX 240940
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
340 AM CST SAT NOV 24 2007

.DISCUSSION...
WET WEEKEND ON TAP. FOR TODAY THE CULPRITS WILL COME IN TWO FORMS:
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COASTAL TROF AND POSSIBLE
SFC LOW...AND VORT LOBE CURRENTLY MOVING THRU SCNTRL TX HEADED THIS
WAY. COULD SEE SOME DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY (AND SUNDAY TOO).
WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EVERYWHERE...BUT
MOST CONCERNED WITH THE SRN 1/3 OF SE TX WHERE PW`S WILL BE
INCREASING INTO THE 1.4-1.8" RANGE. MAJORITY OF MODELS ALSO SHOWING
A SFC CIRCULATION/LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE LOWER/MID TX COAST AND
MOVING UP ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST TODAY. IN ADDITION TO ENHANCING
RAINFALL...THIS WOULD ALSO POSE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT JUST
INLAND WHERE SHARP SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WOULD EXIST. BOTH NAM
& GFS FCST SOUNDING SHOW HELICITIES >400 M2/S2. WILL MENTION
ISOLATED SVR ALL THE WAY UP TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR TODAY DUE TO LOWER
END CONFIDENCE OF THE LOWS TRACK - SHOULD IT ACTUALLY DEVELOP AS
MODELS INSIST. IF IT STAYS OFF THE COAST THAT`S WHERE THE MESO
THREAT WILL STAY.

OTHER THAN SOME --RA...WE MAY SEE A VERY BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVITY
IN THE EVENING HOURS. ROUND TWO BEGINS LATER TONIGHT AS THE H5 TROF
BEGINS MOVING CLOSER TO THE REGION. EXPECT PRECIP TO FILL IN TO OUR
WEST AND BEGIN MOVING INTO SE TX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DO NOT
SEE A SVR THREAT ATTM AS IT`S DOUBTFUL THE SFC CAN BE TAPPED INTO.
BUT WILL LIKELY STILL SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION. THIS PRECIP
SHOULD MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH CLEARING
BEGINNING SUN EVNG AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN THRU THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER A
BRIEF RETURN OF LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS...EXPECT ANOTHER FRONT TO PUSH
THRU LATE WED NIGHT OR EARLY THURS. NOT LOOKING LIKE VERY MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO JUST WENT WITH SOME 20-30% POPS FOR NOW. 47

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HGXAFDHGX

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
653 AM CST SAT NOV 24 2007

TXC015-071-089-157-201-291-473-481-241500-
LIBERTY TX-WALLER TX-HARRIS TX-AUSTIN TX-COLORADO TX-FORT BEND TX-
WHARTON TX-CHAMBERS TX-
653 AM CST SAT NOV 24 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CHAMBERS COUNTY...
WHARTON COUNTY...
FORT BEND COUNTY...
COLORADO COUNTY...
AUSTIN COUNTY...
HARRIS COUNTY...
WALLER COUNTY...
LIBERTY COUNTY...

* UNTIL 900 AM CST

* AT 653 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
TRAINING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR
STRETCHING FROM ROUGHLY COLUMBUS TO HOUSTON TO MONT BELVIEU. SOME
LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING
THE PAST 90 MINUTES. RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR
CONTINUE AND MAY CAUSE SOME PONDING ON AREA FEEDER ROADS AND OTHER
LOCATIONS SUSCEPTIBLE TO STREET FLOODING. THE THREAT AREA CURRENTLY
EXTENDS AROUND 15 MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. DO NOT
DRIVE ACROSS WATER COVERED ROADWAYS.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...OR
DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2998 9479 2976 9478 2973 9483 2965 9487
2964 9491 2965 9493 2963 9495 2957 9644
2988 9644
TIME...MOT...LOC 1253Z 180DEG 0KT 2979 9530

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... 0statement

[Yankeegirl]

I can believe it, Its been storming here all morning...

[jasons2k]

It's pouring here - been pouring all morning long....occasional rumble of thunder too. Perfect day to decorate the tree!!

[vbhoutex]

We're up to 1.1" and counting here since it started raining about 5 this morning. Woke me up then with some loud claps of thunder. Been going on ever since but just recently picked up. And it is a warm toasty 39º outside too!!! Radar indicates there may be a lull later this morning, but before that it appears we have a heavy storm heading in right down I-10. Great day to stay in and od nothing!!!