Texas Summer 2025

[wxman22]

A little concerned for those in the Ft Worth area as the low has drifted its way into North Texas. And heavy bands are forming.

[Ntxw]

Been away for the holiday, but very tragic to hear about what happened in central/south Texas. These warm core low set ups have such a history down there.

[Texoz]

Incredible tragedy. More rain this morning between 3-6 inches.

 https://x.com/NWSWPC/status/1941814904266146147

The lack of movement with this system is bonkers. It's essentially meandered around central Texas for 4 days now? July 3, 4, 5, and now 6th.

It's the opposite end of the spectrum from the summertime high pressure ridges that would get locked in here.

[Stratton23]

More storms forming near kerrville, you really hate to see it, this nightmare needs to stop

[bigddstranny]

I'm seeing a lot of messaging that indicates that the NWS office Austin/San Antonio dropped the ball. I seriously doubt that that's the case.

Does anyone have the discussion from 7/3 or 7/4?

[A1A]

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/ ... 84&yr=2025

[utpmg]

I'm seeing a lot of messaging that indicates that the NWS office Austin/San Antonio dropped the ball. I seriously doubt that that's the case.

Does anyone have the discussion from 7/3 or 7/4?

I saved a couple from previous, but they're all available. Anyone reading the discussions would have known there was concern. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EWX&issuedby=EWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
is the site, and the "versions" at top are the archives.
I mentioned to my friends on Wednesday the forecast discussion indicating a change. And their words of "PWATs at the climatological maximum".

[wxman22]

Very concerning...

[utpmg]

Looks like 1.9" in an hour just reported over lost maples.

[horns0314]

Question I have based on the water levels at Hunt on July 4 from 3-4 am the water rose 20 ft. The rapid ascent started at 3 am. Why was the emergency alert sent out at 4:05 am? The crest happened at 4:25. Why not earlier?

[HockeyTx82]

I'm getting lots of "friends" sending me random stuff about some cloud seeding projects in that area where this flood occurred.

Sometimes I wonder how much tin foil they tend to buy.

Everybody has to politicize everything or try to find some reason other than just things unfortunately happened and lots of lives were tragically lost.

I'm sickend by the absolute vile spewing from some people over this horrific flood and those poor kids and people who died.

For reference here is a link I was sent.

https://www.tdlr.texas.gov/weather/weathermodmap.htm

[Brent]

I'm getting lots of "friends" sending me random stuff about some cloud seeding projects in that area where this flood occurred.

Sometimes I wonder how much tin foil they tend to buy.

Everybody has to politicize everything or try to find some reason other than just things unfortunately happened and lots of lives were tragically lost.

I'm sickend by the absolute vile spewing from some people over this horrific flood and those poor kids and people who died.

For reference here is a link I was sent.

https://www.tdlr.texas.gov/weather/weathermodmap.htm

I can't even get on social media right now for all the stupid conspiracy theories how did people get so dumb

Oh and from what I've seen the NWS didn't drop anything actually they had 5 people instead of 2 in anticipation of a busy weekend had a flash flood watch on Thursday and had a warning for life threatening flash flooding 3 hours before it started... You can't force people to pay attention unfortunately

A holiday weekend too there was a lot of $$$ involved and I'm sure that didn't help. Those camps aren't cheap

[mmmmsnouts]

I can't even get on social media right now for all the stupid conspiracy theories how did people get so dumb

You answered your second sentence with your first sentence.

Also it’s the middle of the night in the middle of nowhere, pretty much a worst case scenario trying to get warnings heeded for a flash flood. How far away was sufficiently higher ground? Did they even have time to get there?

[Brent]

I can't even get on social media right now for all the stupid conspiracy theories how did people get so dumb

You answered your second sentence with your first sentence.

Also it’s the middle of the night in the middle of nowhere, pretty much a worst case scenario trying to get warnings heeded for a flash flood. How far away was sufficiently higher ground? Did they even have time to get there?

One road in and out it appears. You're talking like the Florida Keys which usually evacuates many days in advance

It was packed for the holiday. There were thousands of people there. it was just a perfect storm for a disaster. From what I saw in the reports the river literally overtook them in the span of 5 minutes. There was no time to do anything by that point. 700 people just at the camp they are talking about

[utpmg]

For me the issue isn't the warning, it's the lack of communication and planning. As one who has lived in Central Texas since the 1950s I'm appalled at what seems to be a lack of contingency plans for a region that 1) has historically had some of the most concentrated rainfalls in North America 2) has a local history of tragic loss of church camp kids lives 3) experienced massive catastrophic flash flooding as recently as 2015. It's like leading a bunch of kids on a slot canyon hike in Utah with a chance of rain in the forecast.
I'm beginning to think perhaps the reliance on weather apps by individuals has lessened their reliance on actual weather forecasts/forecasters.

[Brent]

For me the issue isn't the warning, it's the lack of communication and planning. As one who has lived in Central Texas since the 1950s I'm appalled at what seems to be a lack of contingency plans for a region that 1) has historically had some of the most concentrated rainfalls in North America 2) has a local history of tragic loss of church camp kids lives 3) experienced massive catastrophic flash flooding as recently as 2015. It's like leading a bunch of kids on a slot canyon hike in Utah with a chance of rain in the forecast.
I'm beginning to think perhaps the reliance on weather apps by individuals has lessened their reliance on actual weather forecasts/forecasters.

Oh I dont disagree with this at all I knew the NWS issued warnings my friend who works there was telling me about it on Saturday again it's exactly what you said people hugs apps and people assuming that it will never be that bad or what not

After what happened in 1987 though yeah it is just appalling to me that nobody had a plan apparently. Like it doesn't care that the camp has been there for 100 years

Also why in the world at the camp were the youngest kids the closest to the river. I noticed most of the other camps were relatively unscathed even that one the higher elevations wasn't nearly as bad off and most people who were the older kids escaped

So many things just are not making any sense

[Bobbyh83]

I lurk here and learn a lot, but I can actually comment here. We were in the Hill Country, at Camp FIMFO just down river from the Canyon Dam. As closely as I watch the weather most days, I had no idea the potential was there which really hit home. We are all fine, that particular stretch of the river only rose a few feet and we were camped well above the river. Just down from us on River Road there was flooding on Friday which we were watching closely after waking up and learning what happened. Holiday, combined with limited reception and just passing showers before going to bed caused me to not be aware. I would assume that is the same for most people.

Regarding the camp, I believe that any campground, especially one taking care of kids along a river, should have a 24/7 weather monitor and a plan of action.

Is there a good link to see HRR type models?

[utpmg]

I lurk here and learn a lot, but I can actually comment here. We were in the Hill Country, at Camp FIMFO just down river from the Canyon Dam. As closely as I watch the weather most days, I had no idea the potential was there which really hit home. We are all fine, that particular stretch of the river only rose a few feet and we were camped well above the river. Just down from us on River Road there was flooding on Friday which we were watching closely after waking up and learning what happened. Holiday, combined with limited reception and just passing showers before going to bed caused me to not be aware. I would assume that is the same for most people.

Regarding the camp, I believe that any campground, especially one taking care of kids along a river, should have a 24/7 weather monitor and a plan of action.

Is there a good link to see HRR type models?

You mention "limited reception," I was wondering as I've not been on those roads in a while--is there not much cell reception along the river there?

[HockeyTx82]

I agree the apps and reliance on cell phones is part of the problem. Reception is not guaranteed and a weather radio or some sort of shortwave radio should be mandatory at camps, especially where kids are. A full review of evacuation plans need to be vetted and practiced. Perhaps they had all of this and it simply happened so fast, but it seems that the warnings were there from what I am gathering. Cell phone reception does not bend down around hills so reception can be easily lost or weak.

People give the Boy Scouts @#$! these days for "going soft" but I can tell you as a current leader this is camping 101 they teach at the Cub level to both Scouts and leaders. It's not always about the weather where you are but upstream as well in hilly/mountain areas. Have multiple ways to monitor and receive warnings. Have someone on watch overnight.

While the flood was "sudden" it seems that warnings were issued and either ignored, some locals said we get them but never have the river done that, or not received. Tragic all around but I feel in today's world easily prevented with proper training and knowledge.

Those beautiful views in the riverbeds are amazing but a death trap when rain, even miles/100 of miles away pour and you are caught off guard.

[Bobbyh83]

[/quote]
You mention "limited reception," I was wondering as I've not been on those roads in a while--is there not much cell reception along the river there?[/quote]

I can't speak for the Hunt area, but I know where we were along 306 near Canyon Lake reception wasn't great. In the campground, especially near the river, it took a while for radar to load and even forums. There were a few times I just gave up for 5 minutes and then it would work better. I would expect it to be worse as you get more remote and further into the Hill Country. We were less than 15 miles from New Braunfels, a large metropolitan area.