***CURRENT WATCHES/WARNINGS/STORMS/REPORTS IN THE US***

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0087
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0911 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN SC...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WRN NC...EXTREME
SWRN VA

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET

VALID 161511Z - 162145Z

CORRECTED TO INCLUDE SRN VA

FREEZING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD NWRN SC AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WRN
NC BETWEEN 15-18Z. HOURLY RATES WILL AVERAGE 0.05 TO 0.10 IN/HR.
SLEET WILL BE LIKELY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER NRN SECTIONS OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA.

SUB-FREEZING SURFACE AIR HAS MOVED SWD INTO EXTREME NWRN SC AS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW
LEVEL WAA DEVELOPS NEWD OUT OF GA. NELY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER / CAA / WILL KEEP THE FREEZING LINE FROM MOVING BACK NORTH
EVEN AS WAA INTENSIFIES ABOVE IT. ALL THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC SETUP FOR FREEZING RAIN. SLEET WILL ALSO
BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY WITHIN SURFACE COLD AXIS WHERE COLD AIR IS
DEEPEST AND FURTHER N INTO SRN VA.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 SSE MOB 55 ESE MEI 25 NNE SEM 30 ENE TOI 30 ENE MAI 15 NNW MGR
SSI ...CONT... 15 N DAB 10 S SRQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW BVE
20 WNW GPT 20 SW MEI 20 WNW CBM 25 SW BNA 60 ENE BWG 30 NW JKL
15 E CRW 30 NW SHD 20 SSE DCA 15 E SBY ...CONT... PBI 70 SSE FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N AST 25 SSE SLE
65 NNE MFR 65 NNW SVE 35 W LOL 40 S NFL 65 NNW BIH 40 W BIH
25 SSE FAT 45 ENE PRB VBG.

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH EVIDENT OVER SCNTRL STATES WILL MOVE INTO THE OH VLY
AND SERN STATES BY TONIGHT. POTENT MIDLEVEL JETLET ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SERN STATES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SURFACE LOW OVER NERN AL WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SEWD ALONG
DVLPG WEDGE INTO SWRN GA BY EVENING WHILE CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE
OFF THE NC COAST.

...SERN STATES...
PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WITH ONE OR TWO EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
CONTINUES TO MOVE ENEWD AT AROUND 25 KTS ACROSS SWRN GA AND WRN FL
PANHANDLE. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE IS NOT AS UNSTABLE AS
FARTHER WEST...ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO SUPPORT A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR TSTMS. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BEGINNING TO
VEER...BUT STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT BACKED AS THE COLD WEDGE DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHAINS. AS A RESULT...THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO ACROSS NRN FL OR EXTREME SRN GA
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

OTHERWISE...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS...WIND PROFILE WILL BECOME
UNIDIRECTIONAL BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH LEWPS AND SMALL SCALE BOWS. TSTMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SRN GA AND NRN FL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MEANWHILE...SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT/LOW REMAINS BACK WEST OVER AL. AS
MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY LEAD TO LOW-TOPPED TSTMS WITH A RISK OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON.

...INTERIOR CA VLYS...
H5 TEMPERATURES OF MINUS 20-25F ATOP RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES DURING PEAK HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TOPPED CONVECTION IS APT TO INCREASE AS WEAK
VORT MAX TRANSLATES FROM NRN CA THIS MORNING INTO WRN NV THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW WBZ HEIGHTS COULD LEAD TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IF
STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAN BE MAINTAINED.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

Tornado Reports
Time F-Scale Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1030 UNK VERNON WASHINGTON FL 3063 8571 WINDOWS AND SIDING BLOWN OFF A HOUSE. MINOR DAMAGE TO AN ADJACENT HOUSE. REPORTED BY COUNTY 911. (TLH)
Hail Reports
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2015 75 5 NE SAN ANTONIO BEXAR TX 2947 9843 DIME SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC ON AUSTIN HIGHWAY. (SAT)
0145 75 BEN BOLT JIM WELLS TX 2765 9808 (CRP)
Wind Reports
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1235 UNK CORPUS CHRISTI NUECES TX 2773 9761 POWER LINES DOWN ALONG FM624 AND COUNTY ROAD 73. (CRP)
1300 UNK KINGSVILLE KLEBERG TX 2751 9786 TREE LIMBS DOWN ALONG STATE HIGHWAY 141. (CRP)
1300 UNK CORPUS CHRISTI NUECES TX 2773 9761 CANOPIES FROM A BUSINESS WERE BLOWN DOWN ON MORGAN AND BROWNLEY STREETS. (CRP)
1300 UNK PORTLAND SAN PATRICIO TX 2786 9733 POWER LINES DOWN. (CRP)
1805 UNK DELCAMBRE IBERIA LA 2971 9158 SEVERAL MOBILE HOME TRAILERS WERE DAMAGED. (LCH)
1815 UNK DELCAMBRE VERMILION LA 2988 9230 TRAILER PARK DESTROYED. (LCH)
2215 UNK PUCKETT RANKIN MS 3208 8978 NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ON THE BORDER OF RANKIN AND SIMPSON COUNTIES. REPORTED BY SIMPSON COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE. (JAN)
2330 60 RALEIGH SMITH MS 3203 8953 REPORTED BY SMITH COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE. (JAN)
2330 UNK DECATUR NEWTON MS 3243 8911 NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN. SHED FLIPPED OVER. REPORTED BY NEWTON COUNTY EMA. (JAN)
2332 UNK PULASKI SCOTT MS 3226 8960 LARGE LIMBS, NUMEROUS TREES, AND POWERLINES DOWN. TREE TOPS TWISTED OFF. REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR. (JAN)
2345 UNK LAWRENCE NEWTON MS 3231 8923 A FEW TREES DOWN AND POWER OUTAGE. REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR. (JAN)
0015 UNK MOSS JASPER MS 3181 8920 A FEW TREES DOWN ON THE JASPER JONES COUNTY LINE.REPORTED BY JASPER COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE. (JAN)
0050 UNK MERIDIAN LAUDERDALE MS 3236 8871 A FEW TREES DOWN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. REPORTED BY THE CITY OF MERIDIAN PUBLIC WORKS. (JAN)
0115 60 SUMRALL LAMAR MS 3141 8955 REPORTED BY NWS SPOTTER. (JAN)
1100 UNK TYNDALL AFB BAY FL 3006 8558 SEVERAL VEHICLES DAMAGED. REPORTED BY COUNTY EMA. (TLH)

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

Tornado Reports
Time F-Scale Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1340 UNK WADE MITCHELL GA 3251 8218 TREES DOWN. SEVERAL MOBILE HOMES DAMAGED. REPORTED BY COUNTY 911. (TLH)

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0088
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV...NRN VA...MD...DE...SRN NJ...EXTREME SRN
PA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 161645Z - 162245Z

EXTREME SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 IN/HR ARE EXPECTED BY LATE
AFTERNOON FROM NRN VA POSSIBLY INTO EXTREME SRN PA.

MOISTURE...UVVS...AND TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY IDEAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW. 1-2 IN/HR RATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED IN NRN VA AND
MD...IN E-W ORIENTED ZONE OF LIFT OVER INTENSE DEEP LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT. 12Z IAD SOUNDING IS ENTIRELY BELOW ZERO AND SATURATED
AND IS SUPPORTING HEAVY SNOW. AS PRESSURES FALL AND A LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE NC COAST...LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE S AND E
WILL INCREASE BOTH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LIFT AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE TO POINTS FURTHER N...THEREBY INCREASING THE SNOWFALL
RATES TO GREATER THAN 2 IN/HR.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0089
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0138 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN IND AND OH

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 161938Z - 162245Z

SNOW RATES AVERAGING 1 INCH PER HOUR APPEAR LIKELY IN EVOLVING
BAND OF SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP EASTWARD OUT OF THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALONG FRONTAL ZONE. AS THIS
OCCURS...LOW/MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME ENHANCED IN ZONE
ROUGHLY ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70...FROM PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN OHIO...BY 17/00Z.
STRENGTHENING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD IN FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL
DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW/INTENSIFYING SNOW RATES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED BAND NEAR/SOUTHEAST OF INDIANAPOLIS AREA
THROUGH DAYTON/COLUMBUS TO NEAR PITTSBURGH PA.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0090
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL NC...CENTRAL AND ERN VA

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 161943Z - 162345Z

A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH HRLY LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENTS OF
0.05-0.15 INCHES.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS NEARLY STEADY OR FALLING
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE FROM VA INTO CENTRAL NC. 18Z GSO
SOUNDING SHOWED A CONTINUATION OF COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE
LOWEST 3KM. THIS IS IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE STRONGLY VEERING
PROFILE THE ETA AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWED...SUGGESTING A DEEPER
THAN FORECAST COLD DOME. FORECAST PRECIPITATION TYPE BY THE ETA
SHOWED SLEET WHERE THERE IS NOW SNOW OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL VA AND
N-CENTRAL NC. A RELATIVE MIN IN HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS WAS ALSO
NOTED IN N-CENTRAL NC...SUGGESTING LESS WARMING AND A MIX OF
SLEET AND SNOW RATHER THAN SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE IN A NARROW
BAND FROM SERN VA SWWD INTO E-CENTRAL NC...AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
JUST OFF THE SURFACE LESSENS THE DEPTH OF THE COLD LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

1100 UNK TYNDALL AFB BAY FL 3006 8558 SEVERAL VEHICLES DAMAGED. REPORTED BY COUNTY EMA. (TLH)

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

[JQ Public]

Huh? Is heavier stuff reforming the the mountains?

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

Sure looks that way JQ....secondary banding is pretty much seen coming across lower OH all the way to GA.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0092
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0604 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/SERN PA...MD...NRN VA...NJ...DE

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 170004Z - 170430Z

AT LEAST 2 IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES ARE LIKELY THRU THE EVENING HOURS
IN PARTS OF PA...NRN VA..NJ...AND MD.

WV/IR IMAGERY INDICATES THE NNEWD MOVING SWATH OF GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE IS SHOWING INDICATIONS OF THE FORMATION OF A DRY SLOT
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A 70-75 KT MID-LVL SPEED MAX.
PRESENTLY...THE AREA OF COOLEST CLOUD TOPS IS LOCATED FROM WV
NNEWD INTO PA WITH THE DRY SLOT REGION MOVING FROM SC/NC INTO WRN
VA.

PRESENT RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOW STRONGEST BANDING FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS SRN NJ...SERN PA...NRN
DE...MD...INTO NRN VA. DESPITE HAVING THE AREA OF COOLEST CLOUDS
TOPS QUICKLY HEADING NNEWD AND MID LEVEL DRYING....OBSERVATIONS
AND MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE CONTINUATION OF A HEAVY SNOW
EVENT FOR THESE AREAS THRU THE EVENING HOURS. THIS IS THE RESULT
OF INCREASING 850MB ENELY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC / 50-55 KT BY
17/03Z / AS WELL AS SIGNS OF MID-LVL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THE
ETA/RUC/AND GFS ALL AGREE IN PLACING THESE AREAS IN THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL AXIS THRU 17/0430Z.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0093
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0631 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...INTERIOR NERN NC/SERN VA/SRN MD

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 170031Z - 170630Z

FREEZING RAIN WITH GLAZING RATES OF UP TO ONE-TENTH /0.1/ INCH
PER HOUR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN NC NEWD
ACROSS SERN VA AND INTO THE SRN-CNTRL CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION OVER
THE NEXT 6 HOURS.

WET-BULB/SURFACE FREEZING LINE WAS CURRENTLY ALONG A WAL-AKQ-RWI
LINE AND HAS SHOWN LITTLE INLAND/WWD PROGRESS OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. LATEST ETA WAS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OBSERVED
BOUNDARY LAYER 0C ISOTHERM AND FCSTS INDICATE ONLY SLIGHT INLAND
PENETRATION OF WARMER MARITIME AIRMASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DELMARVA REGION NEXT FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE...MIDLEVEL JET STREAK
WAS NOTED ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTH-CNTRL GULF COAST REGION AND IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL
ELY FLOW WAS INTENSIFYING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN IN
RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ALOFT. 1KM VWP WINDS AT AKQ
AND DOX HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED TO 50KT AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN INCREDIBLY INTENSE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE INFLUX INTO AND ABOVE ENTRENCHED ARCTIC COLD DOME
SITUATED FROM NY/NEW ENGLAND SSWWD TO CNTRL CAROLINAS. THUS
EXPECT MORE FREEZING RAIN IN A SSW-NNE BAND INLAND FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE CEW 10 W LGC
10 SW ATL 35 SW AGS 35 SSW CRE.

...SYNOPSIS...
ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE
EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVES EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. IN THE
EAST...STRONG TROUGH OVER THE LOWER OH / MS VALLEY REGION WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW NOW OVER ERN TN / ERN KY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ERN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY REDEVELOP FURTHER EAST ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...
STRONG COLD-AIR DAMMING WILL PERSIST IN LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS --
AN EXTENSION OF THE 1042 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SRN QUEBEC / NRN NEW
ENGLAND.

...THE SOUTHEAST...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN COLD FRONT ACROSS SERN AL / NWRN
GA...WHILE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR DAMMING ORIENTED NW-SE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SERN GA. IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER SERN AL / SRN
GA / NRN FL...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW 60S...BUT AIRMASS REMAINS
RELATIVELY COOL / STABLE IN THE WAKE OF PRIOR CONVECTION NOW OVER
THE FL PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...LITTLE SEVERE
THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST.

FURTHER SOUTHEAST OVER SRN FL...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR EXISTS FOR A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...AREA
REMAINS WELL-REMOVED FROM MAIN REGION OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING...AS
SUGGESTED BY VERY WEAK NATURE OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING
OUTFLOW -- FROM FMY TO MLB ATTM. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL NORTHWEST OF THIS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO LOW-LEVEL
FORCING IS NOT FORECAST TO INCREASE APPRECIABLY. THUS...THE SEVERE
THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED DESPITE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC /
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

...WRN CONUS...
COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-25 TO -30 C AT 500 MB/ AND DAYTIME
HEATING RESULTED IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PACIFIC NW AND THE GREAT
BASIN REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN INSTABILITY...EXPECT THUNDER
THREAT TO CONTINUE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. OVERALL COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED...AND THUS WILL NOT CONTINUE A GENERAL
THUNDER OUTLOOK ACROSS THIS REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE NEL 15 E BDR
20 NW PVD 10 SE BOS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE CTB 60 ENE LWT
50 SW MLS 25 ENE SHR 30 W WRL 30 NNE JAC 35 SSE 27U 75 NNE BOI
75 SSE BNO 30 SSE LMT CEC.

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONGEST UPPER FEATURE THIS PERIOD WILL BE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING NEWD FROM THE SERN STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND.
NOR'EASTER WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TONIGHT WITH TRAILING FRONT MOVING ACROSS SRN
FL. MEANWHILE...ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
NUMEROUS IMPULSES INTO THE PAC NW TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES.

...PAC NW INTO NRN ROCKIES...
TFX/OTX/UIL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
INCREASED OWING TO COOLING MID TROPOSPHERE. SUFFICIENT PAC
MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH HEATING AND MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES
WILL LEAD TO A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOR ISOLD TSTMS.
GREATEST THREAT STILL APPEARS TO EXIST IN THE COASTAL RANGES OF WA
AND ORE AS WLY UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINES WITH FAIRLY STRONG VORT MAX
MOVING TOWARD THE AREA.

...EXTREME SERN NEW ENGLAND...
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5 C/KM SAMPLED BY UPSTREAM 12 UTC RAOBS
IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NEWD INTO SERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
ETAKF MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT CAPE
ABOVE 700 MB FOR ISOLD LIGHTNING...ESPECIALLY AS STRONGEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES OVERNIGHT.

...SRN FL...
VEERING OF THE LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW HAS OCCURRED OVER CNTRL/SRN FL AS
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES NEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
THUS...CONVERGENCE HAS DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND IS LIKELY TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLD TSTMS DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW CTB
45 NNW GTF 40 ESE GTF 20 S 3HT 40 SSE LVM 25 SSW WEY 45 NNE SUN
50 S BKE RDM 15 SSW ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW ISP 15 WSW GON
PVD 25 NNW HYA.



...NWRN U.S....

COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...STEEP LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ACCOMPANYING VORT MAX WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER WRN
MT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS ANY
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLATED. OTHER ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES MAY BE POSSIBLE FARTHER W ACROSS PARTS OF WA/ORE THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER VORT MAX MOVES ONSHORE.

...SRN NEW ENGLAND...

ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ON
SRN EDGE OF DEFORMATION ZONE AS STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ACCOMPANYING A NEWD EJECTING VORT MAX APPROACH THE AREA AND
CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

FLOOD STATEMENT
TNC115-180100-

RIVER FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN, TN
848 AM EST MON FEB 17 2003

THIS PRODUCT INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING RIVERS: SEQUATCHIE RIVER.

FOR THE SEQUATCHIE RIVER, INCLUDING NEAR WHITWELL TN, MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURING
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

FOR THE SEQUATCHIE RIVER NEAR WHITWELL TN, MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURING, WITH
A STAGE OF 15.8 FEET MEASURED AT 7 AM MONDAY. THE STAGE WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE AROUND 11 AM TUESDAY. AT 16.0 FEET, FLOODING OF AGRICULTURAL LAND
BECOMES MORE EXTENSIVE. WATER REACHES THE BOTTOM OF THE RIVER GAGE HOUSE.. THIS
CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 15.0 FEET ON JAN 10 1998.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

FLOOD WARNING
TNC021-037-043-187-180900-


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
349 PM CST MON FEB 17 2003

...A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE HARPETH RIVER...

ON THE HARPETH RIVER DOWNSTREAM FROM FRANKLIN...DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUES.
WATER LEVELS REMAIN HIGH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN DAVIDSON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
CHEATHAM COUNTY. AT KINGSTON SPRINGS...THE 1 PM STAGE WAS 20.1 FEET AND FALLING.
FLOOD STAGE IS 15 FEET. THE RIVER GAUGE WAS DAMAGED DURING THIS
FLOOD...THEREFORE A CREST IS NOT AVAILABLE. WATER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND ARE
FORECAST TO DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING.

IF POSSIBLE...PERSONS IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE SHOULD AVOID AREAS NEAR THE HARPETH
RIVER. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY.
$$
05


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075>080-093>097-181130-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED TYPO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
535 AM CST MON FEB 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MID STATE TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AND VERY LIGHT...WITH
ONLY TRACE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. MOTORISTS SHOULD TRAVEL WITH
CAUTION...AS SOME SLICK SPOTS ARE EXPECTED ON ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT
IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM MAY GENERATE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MID STATE ON FRIDAY.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS.

VALID 201200-211200

THERE IS A A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF TX.

FAST MOVING...COMPACT UPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...DEEP SURFACE LOW IS PROGD
TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL TX...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION. PRESENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PERIOD WILL BEGIN BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH
OF TX/OK ON THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.
AIRMASS OVER SOUTH TX WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE
DURING THE DAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER
60S...BUT STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO INTENSIFY CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL TX NEAR SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT BY EVENING...SPREADING
EASTWARD INTO EAST TX BY FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CERTAINLY SUGGEST FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND
INSTABILITY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES
BY 21/12Z OVER CENTRAL/EAST TX.