Significant Icestorm Potential for SC, NC, VA, and NE GA
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Stormsfury
- Category 5
- Posts: 10549
- Age: 51
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
- Location: Summerville, SC
LONG WORK DAY AGAIN, and the SAME TOMORROW.
Obviously the 18z runs are trending colder still and will more than likely continue to do so right up to the time of the event ...
There's a possibility that CLT and RAH may have a chance to changeover to sleet from the ZR with, what I think will be a continued stronger trend to push the wedge south and west. Sleet, obviously, would be better than Freezing Rain anyway you look at it... GSP and the Upstate of South Carolina looking more LIKELY to have 1/4" ice accumulations, and possibly some ZR MAY make it into Columbia and Florence. The ZR may make it into NE GA, but I do not think that ATL will get into it (climatology doesn't support even with strong CAD events), but very cold nonetheless - probably right near the threshold, 33-34 degrees.
NC obviously is facing another dangerous ice/sleet storm once again.
VA. and MD including DC look to get slammed.
Obviously the 18z runs are trending colder still and will more than likely continue to do so right up to the time of the event ...
There's a possibility that CLT and RAH may have a chance to changeover to sleet from the ZR with, what I think will be a continued stronger trend to push the wedge south and west. Sleet, obviously, would be better than Freezing Rain anyway you look at it... GSP and the Upstate of South Carolina looking more LIKELY to have 1/4" ice accumulations, and possibly some ZR MAY make it into Columbia and Florence. The ZR may make it into NE GA, but I do not think that ATL will get into it (climatology doesn't support even with strong CAD events), but very cold nonetheless - probably right near the threshold, 33-34 degrees.
NC obviously is facing another dangerous ice/sleet storm once again.
VA. and MD including DC look to get slammed.
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I am in Middlesex,NC (Johnston County,NC) which is about 30-40 minutes from Raleigh, NC. With the December 4th ice storm we were without power for 3 days, which I consider that we were the lucky ones as there were others without power for alot longer than we were. I was just curious, as the local forecasters here are saying we are going to see a repeat of the December 4th storm, is that likey to happen and what are the chances of it being worse than that? I haven't heard anything as far as accumulations. I don't want to jump the gun but I do want to be prepared. What are your thoughts???? Thanks in advance!!!!!
We do have plenty of beer and crown, but should we worry about stocking up on the rest of the everyday needs?
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Stormsfury
- Category 5
- Posts: 10549
- Age: 51
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
- Location: Summerville, SC
I feel you will be under a Winter Storm Warning very soon ...
This is a serious situation ... make the preparations needed ... I'm looking at the RAH discussion right now ... which a part of it I feel is not right in regards to this being the best signature for CAD in several years...
IMO, Raleigh is underestimating the CAD and temperatures later on Satruday night and Sunday. I feel it'll be colder ... I feel good about the forecast for the TRIAD with freezing rain developing changing to a lot of sleet overnight, but the Triangle forecast is suspect ... I think that frz rain will be substantial, yes, but I feel a changeover to sleet will happen there ... I think this will be realized in the early am hours Saturday (forecast discussion probably around 4 pm)
This is one of the strongest arctic highs that I've seen in a long time.
This is likely going to be a memorable one.
Underestimating CAD is like skating on thin ice.
This is a serious situation ... make the preparations needed ... I'm looking at the RAH discussion right now ... which a part of it I feel is not right in regards to this being the best signature for CAD in several years...
IMO, Raleigh is underestimating the CAD and temperatures later on Satruday night and Sunday. I feel it'll be colder ... I feel good about the forecast for the TRIAD with freezing rain developing changing to a lot of sleet overnight, but the Triangle forecast is suspect ... I think that frz rain will be substantial, yes, but I feel a changeover to sleet will happen there ... I think this will be realized in the early am hours Saturday (forecast discussion probably around 4 pm)
This is one of the strongest arctic highs that I've seen in a long time.
This is likely going to be a memorable one.
Underestimating CAD is like skating on thin ice.
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Stormsfury,
I'll check back here first thing in the morning. Gotta get the storm kits ready at the church in case we lose power. Our neighborhood was out for 6 days December 4th storm... We have kerosene heaters, food, water, light sticks and stuff like that for our older folks who can't get out and get what they need before things hit...
Thanks for your continued updates to this potential mess.
Vicky
I'll check back here first thing in the morning. Gotta get the storm kits ready at the church in case we lose power. Our neighborhood was out for 6 days December 4th storm... We have kerosene heaters, food, water, light sticks and stuff like that for our older folks who can't get out and get what they need before things hit...
Thanks for your continued updates to this potential mess.
Vicky
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Stormsfury
- Category 5
- Posts: 10549
- Age: 51
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
- Location: Summerville, SC
Alright, first and foremost - this will be very detailed.
Winter storm warnings have gone up and will continue to do so.
Freezing rain and sleet expected to develop later tonight and Sunday from the Upstate of SC, possibly NE GA, and a good portion of NC ...
GSP forecast discussion from this morning very detailed about significant icing in their CWA and also introduced the possibility of a Gravity Wave Scenario ...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
340 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2003
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE P-TYPE AND POTENTIAL DAMAGING ICE
ACCUMULATIONS TNGT THROUGH SUN NGHT AND POSSIBLE FLOODING IN THE NC
MTNS.
WINTER STORM STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK BEGINNING LATE TNGT. ETA
CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLY FASTER WITH THE SWD PLUNGE OF THE
WEDGE LATE TDA AND TNGT. WHILE SOME OF THIS CAN CERTAINLY BE
ACCOUNTED FOR BY THE ETA/S HIGHER LLVL RESOLUTION...THE FACT THAT
THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MUCH SLOWER W/THE SWD PUNCH OF COLD AIR IS
INTERESTING. WL GO CLOSER TO THE ETA FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS EVENT
BUT WL NOD JUST A LITTLE TO THE SLOWER GFS AS WELL.
EITHER WAY...THIS IS LOOKING LIKE AN ICE STORM THAT MAY BE AS
BAD...OR WORSE...THAN THE ONE THIS PAST DECEMBER...AT LEAST FOR
PARTS OF THE CWFA. ETA SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT A NOSE OF -10 DEG C TEMPS
QUICKLY PUSH DOWN THE LEE SLOPES LATE TNGT. RIDICULOUSLY HIGH
850-700 MB THICKNESS IMPLY COMPLETE METALING OF PCPN IN THIS
LAYER...WHICH MEANS WE WL NEED TEMPS ABOUT THIS COLD TO CHANGE
EVERYTHING BACK OVER TO SLEET. THUS...ROUGHLY ALONG AND N OF
I40...EXCEPT THIS TO MOSTLY BE A SLEET EVENT...WITH SOME FZRA EARLY
ON AND PERHAPS SUN NGHT AS WELL. WL GO WITH 1 TO 2 INCH SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA...AND SOME MENTION OF GLAZE. EXACTLY
WHERE THE IP/FZRA TRANSITION WL OCCUR IS STILL A TOUGH CALL.
PRESENTLY THINK THAT THE I85 CORRIDOR FROM CLT TO GSP STAND THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF ICE BEGINNING VERY LATE
TNGT.
THE VERY WARM TEMPS ABOVE THE WEDGE DO WORRY ME A LITTLE.
HOWEVER...THE PARENT HIGH IS SO STRONG THAT LLVL CAA SHOULD TAKE
CARE OF ANY DIABATIC EFFECTS...AT LEAST IN THE HEART OF THE BARRIER
JET. IN FACT...THIS SCENARIO COULD BE ESPECIALLY CONDUCIVE TO ICING
OF ELEVATED SURFACES AS PCPN RATES INCREASE SUNDAY. ONE INTERESTING
THING TO NOTE IS THAT WE MAY HAVE A GRAVITY WAVE SCENARIO SETTING UP
SUN AFTN. IT WOULD BE A LONG SHOT...BUT IS SOMETHING LATER SHIFTS
MAY WANT TO KEEP IN MIND AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS.
OTHER PROBLEM IS HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR THE MTNS. ALREADY HAVE SEEN 1
TO 2 INCHES IN THE WRN MTNS. WL SEE OFF AND ON SHRA AND EVEN
POSSIBLY SOME TSRA TDA MTNS...BEFORE FRONTAL BAND MOVES BACK IN THIS
EVENING. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THEN REDEVELOPS LATE TNGT AND SUNDAY
IN THE EXIT REGION OF H3 JET AS STRONG H5 SRN STREAM VORT WINGS
THROUGH THE AREA. FFA ALREADY IN PLACE...AND PLAN TO KEEP IT THERE.
HGHTS REMAIN LOW TO OUR W SUNDAY NGHT. IF THE CANADIAN WERE TO
VERIFY...HEAVY PCPN WOULD LINGER WL INTO THE NGHT. THEREFORE...WL
KEEP WSW/S UP THROUGH SUN NGHT AND HOLD ON TO THE SAME BASIC P-TYPE
DISTRIBUTION.
Raleigh-Durham Forecast Discussion -
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1025 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2003
LITTLE CHANGE BUT WILL ISSUE UPDATE MAINLY TO KEEP FORECAST FRESH.
HEAVY SLEET POTENTIAL CONTINUES IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST INCLUDING
ROXBORO WITH SLEET ACCUMULATIONS TAPERING OFF TO TRACE AMOUNTS
TOWARD LAURINBURG AND TARBORO. ALTHOUGH SLEET WILL CERTAINLY BE A
MAJOR PROBLEM...THE POWER OUTAGE THREAT IS REDUCED PROVIDED FREEZING
RAIN IS MINIMAL. FREEZING RAIN WILL PREDOMINATE ON THE EASTERN
INTERIOR EDGE OF THE WARNING AREA AND THE ICING THREAT REMAINS HIGH.
MODELS ARE BOTH PERSISTENT AND RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER
AND BETWEEN RUNS LENDING SOME CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. WILL
CERTAINLY ADJUST WORDING WITH LOOK AT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS IN THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE BUT THE CURRENT NUMBERS MORE THAN ADEQUATELY PAINT
THE EXPECTED THREAT.
ANALYSIS OF WEATHER DATA SHOWS COLD AIR IS NOT VERY FAR AWAY.
SURFACE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA WHERE SNOW IS
FALLING. AT 850 MB THERE IS A VERY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WITH 10
DEGREES C AT GSO AND 0 DEGREE C IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA. MODELS HAVE
BEEN VERY EMPHATIC FROM RUN TO RUN INDICATING THAT THE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES WILL DIVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT WITH THE
ONSET OF COLD-AIR DAMMING.
.RAH...WINTER STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THE PIEDMONT AND THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
Raleigh indicates accumulations up to 3 inches in the Triad possible ...
After some coordination with an "expert" in CAD situations, it's believed that the secondary low along right along the coast of South Carolina is not plausible and would have to develop 100 miles east from the 12z runs - due to physics and dynamics involving such an event as this one.
Interestingly enough, Columbia, SC has issued a winter storm watch for their northern counties as well (Lancaster, etc. - favored areas) - for possible icing in the favored locations.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
400 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2003
PRECIP NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. WARM
FRONT EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEDGE
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. MAIN PRECIP WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS RANGING FORM 60 PERCENT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON TO 20
PERCENT SOUTH.
ETA SHOWING STRONG WEDGE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE
PRECIP TYPE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. PARTIAL THICKNESSES
INDICATE FREEZING RAIN FROM CHESTERFIELD SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEWBERRY
COUNTY. 850-700 THICKNESS ON SUN INDICATES RELATIVELY WARM RAIN
ALOFT BUT SHALLOW COLD LAYER NEAR SURFACE IN THE 1000 TO 850
THICKNESS LAYER. WILL ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THIS AREA FOR
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIP ENDING SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST TAKES OVER.
DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY BUT CLOUDS REMAIN. WILL LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BECAUSE OF CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS.
NO CHANGES FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
Potential for a historic storm in VA and the DC area with this developing situations ... latest data indicate that 2 feet of snow may very well fall in parts of VA and near DC ... and some areas may end up with over 30".
Winter storm warnings have gone up and will continue to do so.
Freezing rain and sleet expected to develop later tonight and Sunday from the Upstate of SC, possibly NE GA, and a good portion of NC ...
GSP forecast discussion from this morning very detailed about significant icing in their CWA and also introduced the possibility of a Gravity Wave Scenario ...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
340 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2003
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE P-TYPE AND POTENTIAL DAMAGING ICE
ACCUMULATIONS TNGT THROUGH SUN NGHT AND POSSIBLE FLOODING IN THE NC
MTNS.
WINTER STORM STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK BEGINNING LATE TNGT. ETA
CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLY FASTER WITH THE SWD PLUNGE OF THE
WEDGE LATE TDA AND TNGT. WHILE SOME OF THIS CAN CERTAINLY BE
ACCOUNTED FOR BY THE ETA/S HIGHER LLVL RESOLUTION...THE FACT THAT
THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MUCH SLOWER W/THE SWD PUNCH OF COLD AIR IS
INTERESTING. WL GO CLOSER TO THE ETA FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS EVENT
BUT WL NOD JUST A LITTLE TO THE SLOWER GFS AS WELL.
EITHER WAY...THIS IS LOOKING LIKE AN ICE STORM THAT MAY BE AS
BAD...OR WORSE...THAN THE ONE THIS PAST DECEMBER...AT LEAST FOR
PARTS OF THE CWFA. ETA SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT A NOSE OF -10 DEG C TEMPS
QUICKLY PUSH DOWN THE LEE SLOPES LATE TNGT. RIDICULOUSLY HIGH
850-700 MB THICKNESS IMPLY COMPLETE METALING OF PCPN IN THIS
LAYER...WHICH MEANS WE WL NEED TEMPS ABOUT THIS COLD TO CHANGE
EVERYTHING BACK OVER TO SLEET. THUS...ROUGHLY ALONG AND N OF
I40...EXCEPT THIS TO MOSTLY BE A SLEET EVENT...WITH SOME FZRA EARLY
ON AND PERHAPS SUN NGHT AS WELL. WL GO WITH 1 TO 2 INCH SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA...AND SOME MENTION OF GLAZE. EXACTLY
WHERE THE IP/FZRA TRANSITION WL OCCUR IS STILL A TOUGH CALL.
PRESENTLY THINK THAT THE I85 CORRIDOR FROM CLT TO GSP STAND THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF ICE BEGINNING VERY LATE
TNGT.
THE VERY WARM TEMPS ABOVE THE WEDGE DO WORRY ME A LITTLE.
HOWEVER...THE PARENT HIGH IS SO STRONG THAT LLVL CAA SHOULD TAKE
CARE OF ANY DIABATIC EFFECTS...AT LEAST IN THE HEART OF THE BARRIER
JET. IN FACT...THIS SCENARIO COULD BE ESPECIALLY CONDUCIVE TO ICING
OF ELEVATED SURFACES AS PCPN RATES INCREASE SUNDAY. ONE INTERESTING
THING TO NOTE IS THAT WE MAY HAVE A GRAVITY WAVE SCENARIO SETTING UP
SUN AFTN. IT WOULD BE A LONG SHOT...BUT IS SOMETHING LATER SHIFTS
MAY WANT TO KEEP IN MIND AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS.
OTHER PROBLEM IS HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR THE MTNS. ALREADY HAVE SEEN 1
TO 2 INCHES IN THE WRN MTNS. WL SEE OFF AND ON SHRA AND EVEN
POSSIBLY SOME TSRA TDA MTNS...BEFORE FRONTAL BAND MOVES BACK IN THIS
EVENING. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THEN REDEVELOPS LATE TNGT AND SUNDAY
IN THE EXIT REGION OF H3 JET AS STRONG H5 SRN STREAM VORT WINGS
THROUGH THE AREA. FFA ALREADY IN PLACE...AND PLAN TO KEEP IT THERE.
HGHTS REMAIN LOW TO OUR W SUNDAY NGHT. IF THE CANADIAN WERE TO
VERIFY...HEAVY PCPN WOULD LINGER WL INTO THE NGHT. THEREFORE...WL
KEEP WSW/S UP THROUGH SUN NGHT AND HOLD ON TO THE SAME BASIC P-TYPE
DISTRIBUTION.
Raleigh-Durham Forecast Discussion -
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1025 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2003
LITTLE CHANGE BUT WILL ISSUE UPDATE MAINLY TO KEEP FORECAST FRESH.
HEAVY SLEET POTENTIAL CONTINUES IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST INCLUDING
ROXBORO WITH SLEET ACCUMULATIONS TAPERING OFF TO TRACE AMOUNTS
TOWARD LAURINBURG AND TARBORO. ALTHOUGH SLEET WILL CERTAINLY BE A
MAJOR PROBLEM...THE POWER OUTAGE THREAT IS REDUCED PROVIDED FREEZING
RAIN IS MINIMAL. FREEZING RAIN WILL PREDOMINATE ON THE EASTERN
INTERIOR EDGE OF THE WARNING AREA AND THE ICING THREAT REMAINS HIGH.
MODELS ARE BOTH PERSISTENT AND RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER
AND BETWEEN RUNS LENDING SOME CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. WILL
CERTAINLY ADJUST WORDING WITH LOOK AT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS IN THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE BUT THE CURRENT NUMBERS MORE THAN ADEQUATELY PAINT
THE EXPECTED THREAT.
ANALYSIS OF WEATHER DATA SHOWS COLD AIR IS NOT VERY FAR AWAY.
SURFACE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA WHERE SNOW IS
FALLING. AT 850 MB THERE IS A VERY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WITH 10
DEGREES C AT GSO AND 0 DEGREE C IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA. MODELS HAVE
BEEN VERY EMPHATIC FROM RUN TO RUN INDICATING THAT THE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES WILL DIVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT WITH THE
ONSET OF COLD-AIR DAMMING.
.RAH...WINTER STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THE PIEDMONT AND THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
Raleigh indicates accumulations up to 3 inches in the Triad possible ...
After some coordination with an "expert" in CAD situations, it's believed that the secondary low along right along the coast of South Carolina is not plausible and would have to develop 100 miles east from the 12z runs - due to physics and dynamics involving such an event as this one.
Interestingly enough, Columbia, SC has issued a winter storm watch for their northern counties as well (Lancaster, etc. - favored areas) - for possible icing in the favored locations.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
400 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2003
PRECIP NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. WARM
FRONT EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEDGE
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. MAIN PRECIP WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS RANGING FORM 60 PERCENT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON TO 20
PERCENT SOUTH.
ETA SHOWING STRONG WEDGE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE
PRECIP TYPE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. PARTIAL THICKNESSES
INDICATE FREEZING RAIN FROM CHESTERFIELD SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEWBERRY
COUNTY. 850-700 THICKNESS ON SUN INDICATES RELATIVELY WARM RAIN
ALOFT BUT SHALLOW COLD LAYER NEAR SURFACE IN THE 1000 TO 850
THICKNESS LAYER. WILL ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THIS AREA FOR
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIP ENDING SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST TAKES OVER.
DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY BUT CLOUDS REMAIN. WILL LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BECAUSE OF CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS.
NO CHANGES FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
Potential for a historic storm in VA and the DC area with this developing situations ... latest data indicate that 2 feet of snow may very well fall in parts of VA and near DC ... and some areas may end up with over 30".
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Stormsfury
- Category 5
- Posts: 10549
- Age: 51
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
- Location: Summerville, SC
Sorry for not posting a link ...
I have a page dedicated to Gravity Waves .... December 13th, 2002 the GSP CWA experienced such an event ...
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/GravityWave.html
Stay up to date with Current Weather also on my page(links to various NWS sources)
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Weather.html
I have a page dedicated to Gravity Waves .... December 13th, 2002 the GSP CWA experienced such an event ...
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/GravityWave.html
Stay up to date with Current Weather also on my page(links to various NWS sources)
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Weather.html
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-
Stormsfury
- Category 5
- Posts: 10549
- Age: 51
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
- Location: Summerville, SC
-
Stormsfury
- Category 5
- Posts: 10549
- Age: 51
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
- Location: Summerville, SC
-
Stormsfury
- Category 5
- Posts: 10549
- Age: 51
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
- Location: Summerville, SC
Safe on the Gravity Wave scenario -- the event may have occurred further west into Mississippi based on Satellite trends last night ...
With the cold arctic air entrenched, not enough mixing could happen to penetrate it ... however, the new low that takes shape is expected to increase the NNE winds a little bit ...
I have seen reports of trees down ... but as for the gravity wave scenario, don't worry about that now.
With the cold arctic air entrenched, not enough mixing could happen to penetrate it ... however, the new low that takes shape is expected to increase the NNE winds a little bit ...
I have seen reports of trees down ... but as for the gravity wave scenario, don't worry about that now.
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ColdFront77
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Stormsfury
- Category 5
- Posts: 10549
- Age: 51
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
- Location: Summerville, SC
ColdFront77 wrote:This storm has been said to make the record books. 12 to 24 and up to 36 inches in spots... with this freezing rain event further south. The severe thunderstorms in Florida haven't really panned out.
The best dynamics are displaced with the upper vort now hanging back in Missouri, the first surface low shearing out because it cannot move into the cold dome trapped east of the Appalachians, a second low near the Florida Panhandle ... and the new low taking shape off the Carolina coast which will become the primary ... 3 surface lows ringing around the cold arctic air ...
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