STORM2K

South Texas Storms wrote:Long-range GFS sure does look nice. Cut-off low over Mexico for days which brings us several rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall over the next few months is going to be really important. The more we get the less hot of a summer we should see.

Climate models are showing potential for above average rains for July and August.

Cpv17 I wouldnt get you’re hopes up about that,

Stratton23 wrote:Cpv17 I wouldnt get you’re hopes up about that,

They’ve been consistent with it for quite a while. Don’t be a Nancy! No one really knows what will happen but I choose to be positive.

Cpv17 maybe we will see, but I certainly am not getting my hopes up for widespread rain in a la nina summer, unless we get a tropical system or two, models burned us badly last summer with rain chances, almost always a tease and rarely ever verified

Stratton23 wrote:Cpv17 maybe we will see, but I certainly am not getting my hopes up for widespread rain in a la nina summer, unless we get a tropical system or two, models burned us badly last summer with rain chances, almost always a tease and rarely ever verified

You do realize it won’t really be a Niña summer, right? That will be the 2025 summer as of right now. It takes months before the weather changes to resemble more of the background state. This summer will mainly be neutral to a cool neutral. As we go into late summer/fall then we should be in a La Niña by then and then by the winter it should start to resemble the background state.

Cpv17 fair point, but still not getting my hopes up just yet, i got burned way too many times with rain chances last summer that models were showing and it ended up almost never verifying, so i am pretty skeptical of models showing above normal precipitation wise in the summer

I did look at some of the analogs with sucky winters here and there were no super bad summers showing up so I mean I'm not really holding my breath either but I also don't see anything to be alarmed about right now. A lot of people on social media have assumed it would be a bad summer just because the winter sucked but yeah there seems to be no correlation

On the other hand the long range predictions have left something to be desired I suppose

Stratton23 wrote:Cpv17 fair point, but still not getting my hopes up just yet, i got burned way too many times with rain chances last summer that models were showing and it ended up almost never verifying, so i am pretty skeptical of models showing above normal precipitation wise in the summer

Tbh I really don’t remember any models showing rain during last summer. We had some good rains in May but then nothing at my house for like 3 months. I don’t see that happening again this summer.

Long Range Forecast -----

CaptinCrunch wrote:Long Range Forecast -----

Yeah don't even get me started again because I can go all night I'm still mad about this winter

Let's get this party started!

bubba hotep wrote:Let's get this party started!

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2024030212/384/qpf_acc-imp.us_sc.png

18z GFS took it away lol

Good ole GFS giveth and GFS taketh

Zzzz

I miss winter

Brent wrote:Zzzz

I miss winter

I miss rain. Perhaps Thursday here.

Cpv17 wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:Let's get this party started!

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2024030212/384/qpf_acc-imp.us_sc.png

18z GFS took it away lol

Watch the ensembles!

Massive uh... interesting shaped marginal risk including a large part of TX


0z HRRR shows a few cells overnight/early morning but not much, so we'll see what happens.

Well hello there


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/SU2H8.gif

ElectricStorm wrote:Massive uh... interesting shaped marginal risk including a large part of TX
https://i.imgur.com/LxFCmKq.gif

0z HRRR shows a few cells overnight/early morning but not much, so we'll see what happens.

Looks like the lower Great Lakes area will take the brunt of the action

To bring up the summer convo again, I still want to research this, but I'm interested in the correlation of a +NAO/-NAO and how it affects the Texas summer. I know Ntx has told us many times about the -PDO, and not trying to discount that in any way, the guy knows waaaaay more than me about this, but I'm very interested in this teleconnection.
Currently skiing in Steamboat. just received 22" of snow in 2 days. Conditions are fantastic. When I get home and have a few hours of boredom, I will look into more.

For those who are interested in where I will look first, I mentioned in last years summer thread..... During a -NAO, the bermuda high was very very weak or non existent. Pairing that with a very strong high directly over the Caribbean region, it allowed this high to flex well into the GOM/Texas region for the majority of the summer. Typically, if the NAO was positive and the bermuda high was strong, the high over the Caribbean and the Bermuda high would merge from time to time and would provide Texas and the GOM with a bit of a break from these massive heat ridges. If this heat ridge is leaning into Texas and the southern plains, all convection is shut off. I initially got into this wormhole because I just did not understand how an El nino summer could be so terrible.

Anyways, thats my thinking. Feel free to counter this idea, post on the subject, etc. The more the better.