STORM2K

HockeyTx82 wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:Let's GOOO!

https://twitter.com/spahn711/status/1630369976354832385

Is it me or will that water tower leave a hole in the radar?

Seems like odd placement.

It'll be installed at the top of the water tower I believe.

South Texas Storms wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:

rwfromkansas wrote:Looks like Larry Cosgrove is going warmer for March and basically saying winter is done.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2023022812/360/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Some ensemble guidance has trended more towards a colder pattern by the middle part of March, likely due to the SSW event a few weeks ago. In fact, the 12z Euro Ensemble has the 1 inch mean snowfall contour down to Abilene over the next 15 days. I don't think winter is over for us yet.

This works with Springs that transition to El Nino, in particular within a broader -PDO regime. They tend to be chilly. Years like 1963, 1997, 2002, and 2009 most featured a cold March or April or both. The atmospheric circulations that drives the transition to +ENSO tends to do this.

What happens the next two months has a big impact on Summer. Last year March and April were heavily ++SOI with lots of warmth and dry periods that led to a strong feedback. We can do the opposite if it is cool and wet.

bubba hotep wrote:

rwfromkansas wrote:Looks like Larry Cosgrove is going warmer for March and basically saying winter is done.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2023022812/360/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

I will take it. How much do I have to pay?

I was confused a bit at Larry's post since I swore before he was on board with a cooler March.

Iceresistance wrote:Let's GOOO!

https://twitter.com/spahn711/status/1630369976354832385

That's great news - but dang, Hugo, OK would have been a much better location to fill that radar hole, IMO!

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1630670393231958018

cstrunk wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:Let's GOOO!

https://twitter.com/spahn711/status/1630369976354832385

That's great news - but dang, Hugo, OK would have been a much better location to fill that radar hole, IMO!

I thought of that too, but Durant is larger compared to Hugo. They had the money to do it.

 https://twitter.com/LarryCosgrove/status/1630572982555795456

From mid-Feb in the Winter thread:

bubba hotep wrote:
-NAO that I talked about a few days ago is finally starting to show up in modeling. Then the Euro Weeklies also take the AO & WPO negative in March. The only thing holding back an Epic March is the EPO. I think we will get an EPO push and we should see 1-2 weeks of legit winter wx in March.

With this kind of EPO dump, I would expect temps to trend colder as we get closer to the event. The EPS is also starting to light up the 12-14th with a decent snow signal for the Southern Plains.

bubba hotep wrote:From mid-Feb in the Winter thread:

bubba hotep wrote:
-NAO that I talked about a few days ago is finally starting to show up in modeling. Then the Euro Weeklies also take the AO & WPO negative in March. The only thing holding back an Epic March is the EPO. I think we will get an EPO push and we should see 1-2 weeks of legit winter wx in March.

With this kind of EPO dump, I would expect temps to trend colder as we get closer to the event. The EPS is also starting to light up the 12-14th with a decent snow signal for the Southern Plains.

https://i.ibb.co/0G49xcC/MarchEPO.png

Dang! That’s impressive.

Notable shifts west with the 18z gfs, 0z nam and 0z hrrr on Thursday’s system. Skew Ts/hodographs look sufficient now for at least isolated tornadoes and more than sufficient for large hail in central and eastern Texas

bubba hotep wrote:From mid-Feb in the Winter thread:

bubba hotep wrote:
-NAO that I talked about a few days ago is finally starting to show up in modeling. Then the Euro Weeklies also take the AO & WPO negative in March. The only thing holding back an Epic March is the EPO. I think we will get an EPO push and we should see 1-2 weeks of legit winter wx in March.

With this kind of EPO dump, I would expect temps to trend colder as we get closer to the event. The EPS is also starting to light up the 12-14th with a decent snow signal for the Southern Plains.

https://i.ibb.co/0G49xcC/MarchEPO.png

That would be something. Definitely a much colder signal relative to the averages per the Euro ENS, but outside of the Panhandle region, I just think it's going to take that and probably a little more in the form of a dynamic driven ULL in order to deliver a real March Madness Texas "Lotto" snow shocker in the middle of March, but hey I hope it happens. I'd love to be wrong on that front in a few weeks. Talk about ending/transitioning out of three consecutive years of a La Nina with a bang.

Well I guess we can expect doomsday tomorrow. Looks pretty bad for a large swath of Texas.

Can't wait for all of the apocalyptic model runs to be blasted out.

Um, severe storms this morning? Wasn’t expecting rain at all.

Moderate Risk tomorrow just east of DFW.

Radar is down in FW, but it sure looks ugly outside in Las Colinas. Thunder off in the distance is persistent.

Thunderstorm Watch up for DFW, I didn't think anyone expected that.

Iceresistance wrote:Thunderstorm Watch up for DFW, I didn't think anyone expected that.

OMG it's happening