Texas Spring 2016

[TeamPlayersBlue]

That rain event looks pretty intense. Strong storms and high amount of rain. Is this event from the big drop in the SOI within the past week?

[wxman57]

That rain event looks pretty intense. Strong storms and high amount of rain. Is this event from the big drop in the SOI within the past week?

EC Parallel run has about an inch in Austin next Tuesday, 1-2" in the D-FW area, and 2-4" across SE TX. The farther east, the more moisture will be available - and the greater chance of severe weather.

[gboudx]

Update from jeff:

Weak cold front will cross the region today helping to bring temperatures back toward “normal”.

Upper air pattern with storm track well north of TX will allow a weak frontal boundary to cross the region today. Moisture is limited to the lowest levels of the atmosphere and the air mass is capped at the 800mb level which makes it hard for the formation of showers and thunderstorms. Would not be surprised to see a thin line of showers with the front, but expecting actual rainfall amounts to be less than .25 of an inch.

Drier and cooler air mass filters into the region tonight with lows falling back into the more normal 40’s and 50’s instead of the 60’s of late and highs in the lower 70’s instead of the lower 80’s. Similar weather will continue for the rest of the week and into this weekend with another front on Thursday afternoon.

Looking ahead, an upper level pattern change does appear to at least become a possibility toward the early to middle part of next week as an upper level trough develops over the SW US and into N MX. This will help draw deeper moisture into the region and allows a storm system to track across TX around next Tuesday and Wednesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF have been showing this storm system for several days and producing healthy amounts of rainfall and possibility severe weather…however trends of late have been for storm systems to actually track more northward and rainfall and severe weather to be displaced to our east and north. Will need to watch for such trend going forward, but the time period from the 8-10 could be fairly active.

[dhweather]

CPC is highlighting a heavy rain/flood threat for the eastern half of the state in the March 8-10+/- time frame

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[Ntxw]

I think this may transition to a big severe weather/tornado outbreak. Jet streak is very strong after it comes into California. Be on your toes about this, it's been very muggy and toasty you put a little instability in and you can get early season tornado outbreaks. With the PNA lowering to neutral-negative it's a ripe recipe for flooding and severe weather.

[TheProfessor]

I think this may transition to a big severe weather/tornado outbreak. Jet streak is very strong after it comes into California. Be on your toes about this, it's been very muggy and toasty you put a little instability in and you can get early season tornado outbreaks. With the PNA lowering to neutral-negative it's a ripe recipe for flooding and severe weather.

[img]http://i64.tinypic.com/110at1x.png

Severe weather could reach all the way up to Ohio, I'm done with winter, Southeast trends screwed me out of snow earlier in the winter and now the infamous Northwest trend has screwed me out of snow at the end. I'm ready for spring and thunder storms.

[Ralph's Weather]

Skies getting dark here in Tyler. Hope we get some rain. This line is trying to develop west towards me.

[wxman57]

Skies getting dark here in Tyler. Hope we get some rain. This line is trying to develop west towards me.

Looks like a very thin line of showers formed south of Longview-Tyler. No rain for you with this front, and not much for anyone else.

[Ntxw]

Somebody early next week could get 4-8" of rain, especially if the ULL is slow to eject.



We won't be alone, California will get a season's worth of rain with the same system. With the psuedo neutral/-PNA I think this threat is legit. Upper SW flow aloft from the baja is recipe for a rainfall highway vs the dry NW flow aloft. Ridging to our east will slow things down.

[Ralph's Weather]

Skies getting dark here in Tyler. Hope we get some rain. This line is trying to develop west towards me.

Looks like a very thin line of showers formed south of Longview-Tyler. No rain for you with this front, and not much for anyone else.

Yep, clear skies now.

[Ntxw]

Here's an image of the 250mb winds and mslp from Mike Ventrice. A hose aimed at the SW and southern plains.

[wxman57]

12Z EC (not parallel run) is heavier with precip in NE TX next Tuesday - 2-5" from D-FW to Tyler area. Less rain for SE TX (1-2")

[Ntxw]

Quite the slow moving trough and rain shown on 18z GFS, Where was this PNA flip induced system two weeks ago ?

[wxman57]

I notice that the precip is over with by 18Z Tuesday on the 18Z GFS. Not much different from the 12Z. Just about a 6-hr period when we may see moderate rain across East Texas.

[jasons2k]

We desperately need some rain here. I was hoping for at least something today but it just wasn't in the cards. Sorta painful after getting teased with 60% rain chances for a few days. Things are drying out quickly and the plants really need it with the spring green out in full swing.

If this is the best we can do in an El Nino year, I'm pretty concerned about the next set of summers coming up.

[Ntxw]

We desperately need some rain here. I was hoping for at least something today but it just wasn't in the cards. Sorta painful after getting teased with 60% rain chances for a few days. Things are drying out quickly and the plants really need it with the spring green out in full swing.

If this is the best we can do in an El Nino year, I'm pretty concerned about the next set of summers coming up.

The El Nino year was last year, most locales in Texas experienced some of it's greatest rainfall on record. This year will likely go down as a transition year to La Nina. Often in transition ENSO years, if the previous year was wet then the following transition year will end up dry (compared to the wetter year).

[Brent]

GFS again showing highs in the mid/upper 80s with even some 90s appearing for the weekend of the 12th-13th

[WeatherGuesser]

I'm ready for spring and thunder storms.

You've never taken a lightning strike and had to replace most of your electronics, have you?


It'll be the last time you ever wish for thunderstorms.

[TheProfessor]

I'm ready for spring and thunder storms.

You've never taken a lightning strike and had to replace most of your electronics, have you?


It'll be the last time you ever wish for thunderstorms.

Actually I have and it's happened to my friend too, though I didn't have to pay for anything since I was a kid. But I live in a dorm so I don't have to pay if lightning strikes and even if I did I'm a storm lover, always have been always will be, a strike to the house won't change that.

[weatherdude1108]

The 12Z GFS moves the low pressure northeast away from Texas, then loops it back around to the northwest to near Austin. The rain totals went up substantially as a result of that.