Texas Fall-2015

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Ntx, im expected an update on the Siberian Snow advance update about every 3 days . Been looking at models and the next ten days dont look great for snow up there

[Ntxw]

Don't worry yet about snow advance TPB, the correlation is in October and ties with the AO for that month. Late Sept is when snow falls and how quickly coverage expands during October is when the SAI begins.

[Brent]

There's hope!

[gboudx]

Is it time to start looking at acorns, catepillars, ant mounds or some other natural phenomena to forecast the upcoming winter? I saw an armadillo in my backyard the past 2 mornings. I'm pretty sure the little dude was looking for grubs. But is he eating ferociously to make a thicker armor due to a bitter cold winter coming up?

[TheProfessor]

a few weeks from now about the time the past couple of years I would start looking to see how big ant mounds were getting and last year at the beginning of October my tree at my house started producing acorns for the first time my family have lived in our house since 2003.

By the way the The Northeast Pacific Warm pool is still there. which is why as of right now is why some forecasters aren't forecasting a typical strong El Nino Winter for the U.S, which could possibly mean more cold air intrusions from the North into Texas. Also another guy on a different forum I'm on said that 1957 also had a slight warm pool in the NE Pacific, though it wasn't as pronounce as this one.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Don't worry yet about snow advance TPB, the correlation is in October and ties with the AO for that month. Late Sept is when snow falls and how quickly coverage expands during October is when the SAI begins.

Ahh its for Oct. Ok thank you!

Is it time to start looking at acorns, catepillars, ant mounds or some other natural phenomena to forecast the upcoming winter? I saw an armadillo in my backyard the past 2 mornings. I'm pretty sure the little dude was looking for grubs. But is he eating ferociously to make a thicker armor due to a bitter cold winter coming up?

For the acorns, i think it will be happening soon. Last year i believe it was, was ridiculous. Couldnt walk my dog bare foot around the house!

In regards of 1957, last year we had an El nino-ish year with the warm pool and remember the MASSIVE arctic HP's we had cross the border but were shunted eastward? Im worried that this will happen again.

[TheProfessor]

Getting a heavy storm here in Columbus, I've been pretty lucky I forgot to pack an umbrella, but I've been inside every time it rains. I need to go buy one soon lol.

[wxman57]

The 12Z GFS dropped the mid-month cold front. More 70s to 90s each day through the 18th. Whew!

[aggiecutter]

The 12Z GFS dropped the mid-month cold front. More 70s to 90s each day through the 18th. Whew!

Not so fast my friend:

[gpsnowman]

The 12Z GFS dropped the mid-month cold front. More 70s to 90s each day through the 18th. Whew!

Uh-oh, it is that time of year. Let the battle begin!! Summer is in its waning days and a cold front will be here sooner or later. It is just a matter of time. Hold on to the last days of summer because autumn then winter will be here soon!!!

[Portastorm]

The 12Z GFS dropped the mid-month cold front. More 70s to 90s each day through the 18th. Whew!

Uh-oh, it is that time of year. Let the battle begin!! Summer is in its waning days and a cold front will be here sooner or later. It is just a matter of time. Hold on to the last days of summer because autumn then winter will be here soon!!!

Yes, wxman57's favorite season will soon be at end and the lunatics will begin running the asylum! Oh, about cold fronts, the last two runs of the European have shown a cold front of decent strength moving into the Southern Plains around 9/11-9/12.

[Ntxw]

Warm run of the Euro several days near 98-100 most of next week. At the very end cold front comes and temperature falls towards the lower 70s, leaving us to wonder what may be next...in about 10 days

[Janie2006]

The models have been fairly consistent over the last few days with bringing in a cold front around the middle of the month. This morning's GFS continues to indicate temperatures trending down over the month. Sure, that's climatology for September, but the idea is consistent, or so it seems to me. The prognostication for the 12th (granted that's the end of the forecast period) indicates the front across north Texas to Amarillo, with cooler continental air behind it. GFS is spitting out a high of 80 and a low of 59 for Birmingham by that date, and that's been the GFS position for the last 3 days. And that model has been consistently too warm for us for daily highs in the Yellowhammer state by about 3-4 degrees over the past couple of weeks at least.

As for the race to 59*F....I'll leave that to youse guys familiar with local Texas climatology.

[Ralph's Weather]

As for the race to 59*F....I'll leave that to youse guys familiar with local Texas climatology.

I don't know if anyone made it officially, but a couple weeks ago or so parts of East Texas were at 60F. Hope the mid-month front gets us down around 55F.

[TheProfessor]

Welp I'm finding out parts of campus flood fairly easily, good thing I'm in a tower on the hill part.

[TheProfessor]

A storm decided to train over us and we're under a flood warning now.

[aggiecutter]

Big changes on the way for NE Texas:

http://www.arklatexhomepage.com/weather ... A.facebook

[Brent]

Weatherbug dropped the rain but has mid 80s for highs and upper 60s for lows next weekend. It's a start.

[Ntxw]

Texas summers are long...reminding me how much I enjoy winter, even a warm one.

[Brent]

Texas summers are long...reminding me how much I enjoy winter, even a warm one.

Totally this. I came into my first winter here last year all disappointed by the lack of snow til late February but I think I have a totally different mindset on this winter. Just ready for it to not be 90+ everyday. lol. I'm sure it will be active and wet this winter, but I am curious as to how the temperature trends go...