Texas Fall 2013

[Ntxw]

I hear you gboudx, I know the proverbial dry slot in that area is such a pain. Ground has been yellowing here too even with the lucky popcorn hits I've had this summer, it was green back in July. This rain event might frustrate some because mesoscale and training storms may dump 2-3 inches of rain and a county next door gets 0.75 but that's typical of many events. At least it will be a steady soaker for most to soak in and for the reservoirs, if everyone manages at least an inch I'll consider it a win. We need all we can get, the Atlantic will shut down for us in the Wgom due to westerlies. Not that anything really got going to begin with.

[gboudx]

Radar returns west and wsw of the Metroplex is looking impressive so far.

[Portastorm]

Last few cycles of the GFS, including the 12z run which is finishing up now, have consistently shown 1-3 inches of rain for much of Texas with some select areas receiving more than that!

[Ntxw]

Looks like PWC is inviting Manuel to HQ with open arms for freshly brewed beverages. Free drinks for everybody!

[Tireman4]

[quote="Ntxw"]Looks like PWC is inviting Manuel to HQ with open arms for freshly brewed beverages. Free drinks for everybody!

This is so ironic...my BIL's name is Manuel. LOL

[weatherdude1108]

Last few cycles of the GFS, including the 12z run which is finishing up now, have consistently shown 1-3 inches of rain for much of Texas with some select areas receiving more than that!

[weatherdude1108]

Looks like PWC is inviting Manuel to HQ with open arms for freshly brewed beverages. Free drinks for everybody!

This is so ironic...my BIL's name is Manuel. LOL

[Portastorm]

This is a pretty cool satellite loop as it shows moisture and clouds flowing directly into Texas from the Gulf as well as the Pacific. I can't remember the last time I've seen this happen!

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaaport_loop.php?PATH=/var/www/leads_images/satellite/SCR/VIS/&NUMBLOOP=10

[weatherdude1108]

This is a pretty cool satellite loop as it shows moisture and clouds flowing directly into Texas from the Gulf as well as the Pacific. I can't remember the last time I've seen this happen!

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaaport_loop.php?PATH=/var/www/leads_images/satellite/SCR/VIS/&NUMBLOOP=10

October 1998 maybe? That's the first thing that comes to mind.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/assessments/pdfs/txflood.pdf

[Ntxw]

HRRR gives DFW 3-4+ inch totals while the Euro has gone up to 2-3. Austin is very close to that also but the HRRR doesn't go out that far for the band to reach yet down there. It will be interesting how training occurs along the cold front if it decides to slow down any. Somebody along the I-35 and/or I-45 corridor is going to see 4+ deluge.

HPC joins the upward trend party,fingers crossed

[weatherdude1108]

Wow! That has increased from just a couple hours ago! Lots of purples in there where it is desperately needed! The baked, drought-stricken ground in Central Texas can several inches before it gets flooded.

[Portastorm]

:uarrow:
Wow! That has increased from just a couple hours ago! Lots of purples in there where it is desperately needed! The baked, drought-stricken ground in Central Texas can several inches before it gets flooded.

I'll let you post the just issued AFD from EWX, my friend. You'll love it!

[weatherdude1108]

Haha! Just read it. Thanks Porta! No bolding or color coding required.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
332 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
AS EVIDENCED BY 12Z RAOB DATA SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
2.3" AT KDRT WITH 2.1" AT KCRP. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW A STEADY SUPPLY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST
TEXAS. THROUGH TONIGHT... THE INITIAL AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND NORTH OF A DEL
RIO TO ROCKSPRINGS LINE MAY APPROACH 2 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH...
WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR ONE HALF INCH IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. ON
FRIDAY...THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF MANUEL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE AREA OF CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND GIVEN AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WE WILL OPT FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. THE WATCH WILL COVER VAL VERDE...EDWARDS...KINNEY AND
MAVERICK COUNTIES AND WILL RUN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND UPWARD WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WE HAVE
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL RESIDE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...SO EXPECT SOME OF
THE HEAVIER TOTALS ACROSS THE MENTIONED REGION.

IF LATER MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT...THE ABOVE MENTIONED
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...SPECIFICALLY THE HILL COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S 12Z ECMWF...THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND... WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE U.S.
HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR WHERE WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 - 1.0 INCH
OF RAINFALL ON SATURDAY. THE LATEST GFS MODEL WANTS TO HANG ON TO
PRECIPITATION A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME... AM INCLINED TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF GIVEN IT/S
CONSISTENCY. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

[horselattitudesfarm]

Beautiful weather still on tap this weekend. Rain (1-2 inches) for a lot of us, donut holes excluded , followed by very comfortable temps. 70s/low 80s for North/Northeast Texas and dry air, 80s in Central and Southeast Texas, rain chances here will likely last a bit longer through Saturday. 60s for lows returns, make plans for some outdoor activities Saturday and Sunday!

My donut hole suit is working. Rain from the south is breaking up from the lack of insolation under the cirrus deck before getting here and rain shield to the southwest is eroding and just leaving cirrus deck overhead so we are getting nothing here. Everytime I see the forecast, the heavy rain band gets pushed further south. Now showing the bullseye over Waco area.
My guess: Cold front moves through faster than forecast and shunts good moisture south. We end up with between .25 and .5 inches total. I'm not going to get my hopes up because I think rainfall estimates for NTX are overblown.

[Rgv20]

Rain Rain Rain!!!

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
TXZ248>257-201000-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
407 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH RICH
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO CREATE A SITUATION FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY MAINLY AS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
IN SOME FORM OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. WEAK NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM JUST OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY CREATING MORE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

PREDICTING AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IS DIFFICULT...BUT AN AREA-
WIDE AVERAGE OF ONE TO THREE INCHES IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND
TWO TO FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BRUSH COUNTRY
APPEARS POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. WITH SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS
CONTINUING IN MOST OF THE AREA...ONE OR TWO HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ENOUGH RAINFALL TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING...WHICH COULD THREATEN PROPERTY WITH UP
TO 3 FEET OF STANDING WATER...IS POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR TOMORROW IF CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY RAIN
INCREASES.

THE POSSIBLE INTERACTION OF TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FURTHER COMPLICATES THE RAINFALL FORECAST.
IF THIS AREA WERE TO DEVELOP AND BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL OR
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INCREASING NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS WOULD
HELP PULL DRIER AIR FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE AREA AND CUT INTO
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS TIME THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN WEAK AND WELL TO THE SOUTH...BUT AS ALWAYS THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THE FINAL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

PERSONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ARE ADVISED
TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE ALERT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

$$

JGG/BSG

[Ntxw]

I am happy to report that the North Texas branch of PWC is currently seeing its first rainfall of the event. Raining cats and dogs right now filling up those dry buckets. Radar is lighting up like a Christmas tree around the metroplex.

[horselattitudesfarm]

Lots of bark with lightning and wind....then very little bite. Impressive returns on radar but only gave us .05" so far, almost got the leaves wet...and the storm is already north of us I'm not impressed. Also, the radar is showing lots of erosion on the northern side north of I-20. The good stuff is up in Oklahoma...and the panhandle, like usual. I'm guessing thats where the front is. Those storms mean business.

[Ellsey]

I want it on record that it's pouring in this part of Collin County at least. Haven't heard it like this in a while....

[Ntxw]

I want it on record that it's pouring in this part of Collin County at least. Haven't heard it like this in a while....

It's coming down in sheets, I can hear it and see it drive with the wind on the road in front of the house. Not hearing or seeing a lot of lightning just wind and rain. Last time I remember this kind of rain was during Hermine. About 0.70 inches so far from the gauge.

[gboudx]

We lost power here in Rockwall for over an hour. Nice hard rain and lightning.