2013 SE TX/ SW LA Weather

[vbhoutex]

Ended up with 1.58" of rain out of the storms this morning. partly sunny now. Hoping the atmosphere is too worked over for more storms tonight or tomorrow. Had to get out and drive in it to an appt. Not fun!!
Meanwhile we look to W TX for the next round and they are definitely brewing. Ugh!!

[CajunMama]

We have had popup summertime thunderstorms the past two nights. It's wrecked havoc on the Sunbelt Conference Baseball Tournament that UL is hosting here. I got caught in the grocery store this evening. I waited about 25 minutes inside the lobby due to the heavy rains and lightning.

[vbhoutex]

A pop up storm would be nice. We still need rain, but not the kind they have been having to our W and SW in San Antonio and Victoria.

[CajunMama]

Add another evening of pop up showers

[vbhoutex]

Add another evening of pop up showers

Add another evening of tease from incoming rains that drop not one drop of liquid.

[vbhoutex]

From Jeff:

Upper level trough over the plains continues to support daily outbreaks of severe weather and this pattern will continue both today and Saturday.

Locally a moist and unstable air mass continues to advect inland off the Gulf of Mexico with periodic showers streaming northward in the low level flow. Gusty south winds feeding low pressure systems to our north have mitigated any hopes of a seabreeze boundary and more organized convection. Once temperature reach the upper 80’s expect scattered showers to develop and move rapidly northward across the region. Small size of these showers in this tropical air mass and fast forward motions suggest isolated rainfall amounts of only about 1/10th of an inch.

Changes take place over the weekend as a slow moving cool front sags southward into the region from N TX. Active convection on Saturday to our north will likely spill southward into our region late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Not sure in what form or how organized this convection will be, but our northern counties stand a chance of seeing thunderstorms Saturday night. Fairly wet period looks in store on Sunday with the slow moving frontal boundary crossing the area combined with a fairly moist tropical air mass. Models are not overly excited about rainfall amounts, but with storm motions slowing and the boundary laying down west-east across the region could see some heavy rainfall in a few bands.

Front should actually push into the northern Gulf Monday allowing a brief period of offshore flow and drier air to work into the region. All eyes will then focus on the Gulf of Mexico next week as nearly all guidance spins up a tropical system toward the middle to end of next week. Current trough from Florida to the remains of Barbara in the Bay of Campeche will remain in place into next week. A broad surface low is forecasted to develop out of this trough and move generally NNE to NE late next week and this is supported by several of the global forecast models. The system appears large and very wet on its eastern flanks with wind shear likely impacting from the west…a typical early season Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone. At this time is would appear that impacts would be well east of our region and focused across the central/eastern Gulf coast region toward next weekend. Should this solution verify, increased NE winds on the western flank of the system would likely help pull dry air SW into SE TX toward the end of next week and help push high temperatures into the middle 90’s.

[vbhoutex]

RAIN, WONDERFUL RAIN this morning in Houston. Yay!! We may get an inch before it is done later this morning.

[txwxpirate]

Not much of rain down by the bay this morning - just enough to tease the garden!

[Kalrany]

It's pooled in my backyard. The dogs were attempting to hop the puddels. Total failure.

[Jagno]

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... bRZh_lOP_M

NWS calls for more storms with potential for hail today. I'm beginning to think my 4-Runner looks sweet with dimples.

These daily storms have been so unusually strong. We still have downed trees throughout our downtown area, ripped up roofs in the central part and hail damage south of the city.

[vbhoutex]

We're not expecting a lot today. When we left for church in the morning I took my umbrella and my wife thought I was crazy. I had looked at radar and our local skies. It was obvious our cap was nonexistent as some smaller towers were already starting to rise. I figured we would get a pretty good dousing due to the somewhat obvious convergence that was going to happen, but I was off by a few hours since I was thinking early to mid-afternoon. Anyway, the bottom dropped out as I was going home with my 2 granddaughters and I could barely see to drive. Tried to wait it out, but radar told me it was going to be a long wait so I ended up getting soaked getting them inside. We ended up with 1.25" of rain from that storm that lasted less than 45 minutes. Some areas of Houston had trees down, but there was not substantial damage anywhere.

[CajunMama]

What I would give to be posting in the Winter Weather Forum right now!!!! My a/c has not shut off at all today. It's a scorcher with warmer days and no rain to follow.

[vbhoutex]

What I would give to be posting in the Winter Weather Forum right now!!!! My a/c has not shut off at all today. It's a scorcher with warmer days and no rain to follow.

Ours has run a lot more today than it has been. I guess summer is here unofficially. Fortunately we did have a couple of showers here at the house that helped keep the temp down some. Not looking forward to upper 90s late week.

[vbhoutex]

Jeff Lindner says it may be stormy this afternoon with heavy rains. I could use some of that at my house.

Rain chances continue today with numerous boundaries in place across the region after a fairly active late afternoon and early evening yesterday east of I-45.

Weakness in the upper level ridge continues over SE TX this morning, but the ridge axis is starting to build eastward from W TX and MX. Locally numerous boundaries from late evening storms yesterday are laying across the region and with a moist and unstable air mass still in place expect additional thunderstorms to develop by late morning into early afternoon. A few storms are already going from the Lake Livingston area SE into the Lake Charles area this morning. Think the best rain chances will again be along and east of a line from Huntsville to Sugar Land to Freeport where less influence of the building upper ridge is found and this region is closer to the lift from upper level energy passing NE of the area.

As noted yesterday evening over SE Harris County slow storm motions in this very tropical air mass (PWS 1.8-1.9 inches) will support some very heavy to excessive rainfall in a short period of time. Storm motions today look to be on the slow side again with weak steering aloft and mainly driven by outflow boundaries. Locations that fall under the heavy rainfall cores could easily see 2-3 inches of rainfall in an hour or less.

Upper ridge gains ground on Thursday and this should at least reduce rain chances. Thus far this summer the ridge has not been able to fully assert its full potential as suggested by the model guidance….likely to guidance trending toward a drier ground helping to pump the ridge some. Vegetation and ground moisture is doing fairly well with the recent rains which is helping to negate some of the warming of the upper ridge. With this in mind…think the seabreeze may be able to generate a few isolated storms each afternoon through Saturday. By Sunday a surge of deep tropical moisture looks to arrive on the TX coast and will likely result in a more active seabreeze front with scattered to possibly even numerous showers and thunderstorms.

[vbhoutex]

Jeff Lindner says it may be stormy this afternoon with heavy rains. I could use some of that at my house.

Rain chances continue today with numerous boundaries in place across the region after a fairly active late afternoon and early evening yesterday east of I-45.

Weakness in the upper level ridge continues over SE TX this morning, but the ridge axis is starting to build eastward from W TX and MX. Locally numerous boundaries from late evening storms yesterday are laying across the region and with a moist and unstable air mass still in place expect additional thunderstorms to develop by late morning into early afternoon. A few storms are already going from the Lake Livingston area SE into the Lake Charles area this morning. Think the best rain chances will again be along and east of a line from Huntsville to Sugar Land to Freeport where less influence of the building upper ridge is found and this region is closer to the lift from upper level energy passing NE of the area.

As noted yesterday evening over SE Harris County slow storm motions in this very tropical air mass (PWS 1.8-1.9 inches) will support some very heavy to excessive rainfall in a short period of time. Storm motions today look to be on the slow side again with weak steering aloft and mainly driven by outflow boundaries. Locations that fall under the heavy rainfall cores could easily see 2-3 inches of rainfall in an hour or less.

Upper ridge gains ground on Thursday and this should at least reduce rain chances. Thus far this summer the ridge has not been able to fully assert its full potential as suggested by the model guidance….likely to guidance trending toward a drier ground helping to pump the ridge some. Vegetation and ground moisture is doing fairly well with the recent rains which is helping to negate some of the warming of the upper ridge. With this in mind…think the seabreeze may be able to generate a few isolated storms each afternoon through Saturday. By Sunday a surge of deep tropical moisture looks to arrive on the TX coast and will likely result in a more active seabreeze front with scattered to possibly even numerous showers and thunderstorms.

The storms did not happen at my house. UGH!! Drought deepens again.
101F today at the house. Triple digit time is here. Is it Winter yet?

[vbhoutex]

101F again today. Not sure what the official was, but I know it was at least 100f. This is getting old real quick!! And yes, I would like a nice gouda cheese with my CHILLED whine.

[Tireman4]

And you all thought I was crazy wanting cold in April and May...now we pay for all this mischief....

[vbhoutex]

OK!! Who ordered today's weather in Houston? 109f in Hockley per Larry Cosgrove and 107f at IAH!! This is insane, especially for June!!

[vbhoutex]

Report from Jeff Lindner on today's heat in Texas.

Intense heat today has resulted in several new records being established across central and SE TX.

Combination of an approaching surface front and strong upper level ridge of high pressure from the SW US into TX resulted in widespread 100’s across the region with many locations reaching well over 100. W then N winds during the day helped pin the seabreeze front on the coast allowing no cooling affect from the Gulf. This is the same high pressure cell responsible for the incredible heat over the SW US including the 120-130 degrees forecast for Death Valley this weekend which is within 4 degrees of the world high temperature record of 134 in Death Valley set in 1913.

Records for June 29, 2013:

Bush IAH: 107 (broke all time June record of 105) (broke daily record of 103)

Hobby Airport: 105 (broke all time June record of 102) (broke daily record of 100)

College Station: 106 (broke daily record of 105)

Galveston: 94 (tied daily record of 94)

San Antonio: 108 (broke all time June record of 107) (broke daily record of 104)

Austin: 107 (broke daily record of 105)

Del Rio: 108 (broke daily record of 106)

Victoria: 109 (broke daily record of 102)

Corpus Christi: 107 (broke daily record of 99)

Brownsville: 102 (broke daily record of 100 from 1900)


Other Area Highs:

Ellington: 104

Tomball: 105

Sugar Land: 106

Angleton: 103

Huntsville: 103

Conroe: 103

Bay City: 105

Brenham: 108

Wharton: 105

Caldwell: 102

Cleveland: 103

Alice: 109

McMullen Military Range: 111

Weak front currently moving toward the area will end the record heat with highs on Sunday at least 10 degrees cooler than today.

[vbhoutex]

Jeff says it may get very wet later this week. We can always hope!!

After record heat on Saturday, a weak cool front has in fact moved off the coast ushering in an usually dry and “cool” air mass for the first week of July.

Dry air continues to settle southward this morning with dewpoints falling into the 50’s and 60’s across the region which is rare for July. Mid level temperatures are also cooling and while the surface dry air will heat up quickly only looking at the mid 90’s today and likely a little cooler on Tuesday. With dry air in place, overnight lows will fall toward those dry dewpoints or into the 60’s across the area. While it will still be warm during the day, the lack of significant humidity will make it feel near the actual temperature or similar to a “dry heat”.

Main part of this forecast will focus on a major upcoming pattern change that promises a significant increase in rain chances toward the end of the week and next weekend. Large upper level trough over the MS valley this morning will be forced westward (retro-grade) due to building Atlantic ridging over the western Atlantic. This trough axis will only slowly move westward taking nearly the entire week to reach eastern TX. While there is some significant difference in the model guidance on where this axis resides by the end of the week and where a possible mid or upper level low develops over the southern plains…the overall trend is toward a very wet pattern. At the same time as this trough axis drifts westward, a strong tropical wave will move west out of the Caribbean Sea and into the Gulf of Mexico with a pool of deep tropical moisture (PWS 2.2-2.4 inches) flooding much of the central and eastern Gulf by late this week. This moisture will be drawn northward on the eastern side of the trough axis bringing potentially significant rainfall.

Current thinking is that the area will salvage a decent 4th of July as the trough axis will likely be just east (near the TX/LA state line) on Thursday with dry air still in place over our region. Tropical air mass will be lurking not far away and expect it to arrive into the coastal waters late Thursday and on the coast Friday with rain chances increasing south of I-10 on Friday. Brunt of tropical surge arrives Saturday into Sunday with PWS climbing to well over 2.0 inches and trough axis/mid level low developing/moving into central TX placing our region under very favorable upper air divergence and lift. Patterns such as these can produce some incredible rainfall in short periods of time and while rain chances will be increasing and peaking over the weekend and a flood threat may also develop. Mid and upper level low pressure systems can at times begin to act like tropical cyclones when embedded within a tropical air mass…this usually results in very heavy concentrated rainfall near the core of the system overnight and in the early morning hours and then banding of rainfall on the fringes during the afternoon hours. Rainfall rates in such a moist nearly saturated air mass will approach or exceed 2-3 inches per hour.

Models have also been bouncing around with attempting to close off the trough wave/trough axis over the western Gulf and this would not be out of the question given the likely extensive amounts of thunderstorms that will be ongoing off the TX coast Friday-Sunday. Regardless if a surface low did form, the impacts would be nearly the same with copious rainfall across SE TX into the coastal bend.