SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[Extremeweatherguy]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2152
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 PM CST WED NOV 21 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...E TX...WCNTRL/NWRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 211932Z - 212130Z

19Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR
KSHV SWWD TO KCLL THEN INTO SCNTRL TX NEAR KSAT. SSWLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WAS IMPINGING ON THIS BOUNDARY...MAXIMIZING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PRIMARILY NE OF KCLL. AT THE SAME TIME...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTED THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT
MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL TX...DEEPENING THE CIRCULATION VCNTY THE TROUGH
AND CONTRIBUTING TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS HAD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF
1500-2000 J/KG OWING TO PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND STRONG
HEATING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED STRONG TSTM THREAT.
VERTICAL SHEAR...HOWEVER...IS COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THAN AT POINTS
FARTHER EAST AND NORTH. PAT/LDB PROFILERS SUGGEST THAT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR THROUGH ABOUT 6 KM IS LESS THAN 25 KTS ATTM. SOME IMPROVEMENT
IN THE SHEAR MAY OCCUR LATER THIS AFTN/EVE TO SUPPORT BRIEF
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...BUT IT APPEARS STORMS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
REMAINING ORGANIZED AS THEY MOVE ESEWD INTO LA AND THE UPR TX.
GIVEN IMPROVING MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MORE ROBUST STORMS MAY PRODUCE
HAIL ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING.

..RACY.. 11/21/2007


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

[Johnny]

Storms are starting to enter Montgomery County from the north. This isn't the cold front I don't think since recent obs show winds still out of the south up towards Madison County.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Extremeweatherguy]

Storms are starting to enter Montgomery County from the north. This isn't the cold front I don't think since recent obs show winds still out of the south up towards Madison County.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

yeah, the actual cold front is just behind these storms. It shows up well on this radar image... http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains.php

[southerngale]

Weather alert just went off with the following Severe Thunderstorm Watch...


Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 735
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT WED NOV 21 2007

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 735 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC005-073-183-199-203-241-291-315-347-351-365-373-401-403-405-
407-419-455-457-471-220400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0735.071121T2030Z-071122T0400Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANGELINA CHEROKEE GREGG
HARDIN HARRISON JASPER
LIBERTY MARION NACOGDOCHES
NEWTON PANOLA POLK
RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE
SAN JACINTO SHELBY TRINITY
TYLER WALKER
$$


ATTN...WFO...JAN...HGX...LCH...SHV...


------------------------------------------------------------


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 735
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT WED NOV 21 2007

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 735 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

LAC011-013-015-017-021-027-031-041-043-049-059-061-067-069-073-
081-083-085-111-115-119-123-127-220400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0735.071121T2030Z-071122T0400Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE BOSSIER
CADDO CALDWELL CLAIBORNE
DE SOTO FRANKLIN GRANT
JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN
MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA
RED RIVER RICHLAND SABINE
UNION VERNON WEBSTER
WEST CARROLL WINN
$$

[Johnny]

I just got caught out in one heck of a storm! I was underneath my carport organizing some tools when all hell broke loose. Lots of lightning, gusty winds and lots of small hail. By the time I got to my front porch, I was soak n wet. I see blue skies on the horizon. Come on cold front!!!!

[Johnny]

The front has officially rolled through Centerville where obs show a NW wind gusting to 26 mph!

[southerngale]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC241-351-212145-
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0111.071121T2118Z-071121T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
318 PM CST WED NOV 21 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF JASPER...
NORTH CENTRAL NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 345 PM CST

* AT 312 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
JASPER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
FARRSVILLE AND 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF JAMESTOWN BY 345 PM CST...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3115 9379 3093 9369 3087 9408 3106 9415
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 246DEG 18KT 3096 9403

$$

SNAVELY/KUYPER

[southerngale]

I just got caught out in one heck of a storm! I was underneath my carport organizing some tools when all hell broke loose. Lots of lightning, gusty winds and lots of small hail. By the time I got to my front porch, I was soak n wet. I see blue skies on the horizon. Come on cold front!!!!

Hey, Johnny. Aren't you in Houston? There's another line forming behind all the bad weather that's already heading this way. I don't think you'll be seeing any blue skies for a while yet.

[Johnny]

I'm just south of Lake Conroe Dam in central Montgomery County. The blue sky break was a solid line of blue behind the first set of thunderstorms. The sun is still out actually. That will come to an end here shortly though.

The front has now made it through College Station with winds out of the north to 20 mph.

[southerngale]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning - ALERT 1
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR, EXTREME NORTHEASTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS, CENTRAL JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS, THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF KIRBYVILLE, CENTRAL NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS, THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CALL, SOUTHEASTERN TYLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS, THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF, TOWN BLUFF, FRED, EXTREME WEST CENTRAL BEAUREGARD PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA, UNTIL 530 PM CST
Issue Time: 4:23 PM CST Wednesday Nov 21 2007
Valid Until: 5:30 PM CST Wednesday Nov 21 2007
Back to summary

Bulletin - Eas Activation Requested Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 423 PM CST Wed Nov 21 2007

The National Weather Service In Lake Charles Has Issued A

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning For... Extreme Northeastern Hardin County In Southeast Texas... Central Jasper County In Southeast Texas... This Includes The City Of Kirbyville... Central Newton County In Southeast Texas... This Includes The City Of Call... Southeastern Tyler County In Southeast Texas... This Includes The Cities Of...Town Bluff...Fred... Extreme West Central Beauregard Parish In Southwest Louisiana...

* Until 530 PM CST

* At 416 PM CST...National Weather Service Doppler Radar Indicated A Severe Thunderstorm Capable Of Producing Penny Size Hail...And Damaging Winds In Excess Of 60 Mph. This Storm Was Located 8 Miles Northeast Of Fred...And Moving East At 50 Mph.

* The Severe Thunderstorm Will Be Near... Call By 430 PM CST...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch Remains In Effect Until 1000 PM CST Wednesday Evening For Southwestern Louisiana And Southeast Texas.

Lat...Lon 3085 9369 3049 9367 3050 9443 3085 9414 Time...Mot...Loc 2223z 272deg 47kt 3063 9395

My NWS page wouldn't open.

[southerngale]

Wow, what a thunderstorm! Lots of thunder and lightning... and very heavy rain. Around 5:00, it was still daylight outside, then extremely dark clouds took over and it turned pitch dark almost immediately. I could still see lighter skies off to the east, I think it was. I can't recall such a drastic change from light to dark this rapidly. It looks like it's 2am and it's been this dark for a while now, long before it should have been.

I'm glad I got some things done in the yard this morning because my yard is gonna be soaked. I sweated out there too... won't be doing that tomorrow.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Pretty intense line of storms rolled through here ahead of the front. Gusts easily hit 60mph and knocked down large potted plants (some weighing as much as 75lbs), flipped some lawn furniture and shook the trees up pretty good. There was also a brief period of pea sized hail within the storm and lots of lightning. I will probably get a youtube video up of some of the footage I shot soon.

BTW - My current temperature is now 61˚ behind the front.

[southerngale]

Pretty intense line of storms rolled through here ahead of the front. Gusts easily hit 60mph and knocked down large potted plants (some weighing as much as 75lbs), flipped some lawn furniture and shook the trees up pretty good. There was also a brief period of pea sized hail within the storm and lots of lightning. I will probably get a youtube video up of some of the footage I shot soon.

BTW - My current temperature is now 61˚ behind the front.

60mph, EWG??? OMGOSH... I swear, you get higher winds than everyone!! I would think that 60mph gusts would do a lot more damage than that though.



Round 2 is approaching here... thunder getting really loud again.

[southerngale]

My weather alert is getting a workout today!


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC199-241-361-220145-
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0120.071122T0120Z-071122T0145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
720 PM CST WED NOV 21 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SILSBEE...LUMBERTON...KOUNTZE...
SOUTH CENTRAL JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF EVADALE...
NORTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 745 PM CST

* AT 711 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
KOUNTZE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
KOUNTZE BY 725 PM CST...
SILSBEE BY 740 PM CST...
LUMBERTON AND 7 MILES WEST OF EVADALE BY 745 PM CST...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.

LAT...LON 3038 9397 3014 9406 3034 9447 3051 9440
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 302DEG 22KT 3039 9432

$$

K. KUYPER

[southerngale]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
739 PM CST WED NOV 21 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DEWEYVILLE...
NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WEST ORANGE...VIDOR...ORANGE...
MAURICEVILLE...
SOUTHWESTERN BEAUREGARD PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
WESTERN CALCASIEU PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...VINTON...STARKS...DE QUINCY...
NORTHWESTERN CAMERON PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 830 PM CST

* AT 737 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
WEST OF DEWEYVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
DEWEYVILLE BY 745 PM CST...
STARKS BY 755 PM CST...
VINTON BY 800 PM CST...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.

LAT...LON 3042 9331 2995 9348 3013 9406 3056 9390
TIME...MOT...LOC 0139Z 286DEG 41KT 3032 9385

[Extremeweatherguy]

60mph, EWG??? OMGOSH... I swear, you get higher winds than everyone!! I would think that 60mph gusts would do a lot more damage than that though.

Round 2 is approaching... thunder getting really loud again.

Well it was an estimate, so I can not know for sure, but they were definitely over 50mph. It takes a lot of wind to knock down those large pots and I have seen them stand tall through wind advisories in the past where gusts have hit 49mph at the surrounding airports. There might also be more damage than I mentioned too, but since it is dark I do not know for sure yet. By morning I will probably have a better feel for what actually happened...and I am willing to bet that a few larger branches were probably downed somewhere in my vicinity. Another thing to consider was that the winds only lasted a few minutes. If they would have lasted longer then I would have expected more damage..may be even a few downed trees..but since they only lasted 2-4 minutes tops, I think the downed (50+ pound) pots, the flipped lawn furniture and the small limbs would justify the speeds I estimated.

BTW, here is a link to a short video I just uploaded onto youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iH5I_BZP39E <<It is pretty blurry, but the audio gives you a good idea of how strong the winds were. The strongest winds occur toward the last half of the video and to get the full sense of their strength, you need to turn up the volume. It's just too bad that this storm didn't hit during the daylight! If it had, then the video would have been much clearer. Oh well..

[PTrackerLA]

Storms are weakening some as they move through Lafayette but at least we're getting some soaking rains. Looks like we have more severe storms forming near Lake Charles associated with the front.

[Opal storm]

I don't see any 50-60mph winds in that video, I've been through those type of winds in hurricanes and it's a LOT worse than people think. Usually you see down trees and powerlines afterwards. 30-40mph gusts can easily topple large potted plants and down large tree limbs etc. And wind during the night can sound a lot worse than what it really is.

[jinftl]

I don't see any 50-60mph winds in that video, I've been through those type of winds in hurricanes and it's a LOT worse than people think. Usually you see down trees and powerlines afterwards. 30-40mph gusts can easily topple large potted plants and down large tree limbs etc. And wind during the night can sound a lot worse than what it really is.

So true...the natural tendency i think is to overestimate the speed of wind you have experienced....i was amazed during Hurricanes Jeanne & Frances to find out that winds I swore must be approaching hurricane force were only in the 45-55 mph range.

After experiencing actual Cat 1 & even Cat 2 sustained winds during Wilma...i know the difference for sure now.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't see any 50-60mph winds in that video, I've been through those type of winds in hurricanes and it's a LOT worse than people think. Usually you see down trees and powerlines afterwards. 30-40mph gusts can easily topple large potted plants and down large tree limbs etc. And wind during the night can sound a lot worse than what it really is.

I've been through those type of wind gusts in hurricanes too...and I would have to disagree. The pots that fell have made it through, as I said, 49mph wind events before (confirmed by airport obs) and have not fallen over. Winds never show up well in video..especially at night without proper lighting..so it is probably hard to get a good feel for what it was like to be standing outside during the event. But one thing is for sure, I have been out in that same area on many days when gusts were in the 30-40mph range, and I have not seen the trees move as much as they did yesterday evening. Sure, I admit that my 60mph initial estimate was likely too high (due to initial excitement when I posted), but I am almost positive the winds were at least in the 45-55mph range in gusts (not sustained). This event was nothing compared to the hurricanes I have been through or some of the storms I have experienced in the past, but it was still a pretty impressive wind storm that was definitely exciting to experience while standing outside.

As for the damage aspect...Yes, if the winds would have been sustained (or had lasted longer), then I would have expected downed powerlines and trees. However, they were only gusting to those speeds and lasted under 5 minutes. Generally, that is not enough time to do any significant tree/powerline damage with winds less than 60mph. Usually, I would have needed at least 60-75mph+ gusts to get trees and power poles to come down within that short period of time. This is what makes a typical gust front different from a hurricane. In a hurricane, the gusts would last longer and lower wind speeds can wind up doing more damage. In a gust front however, the winds usually last for just a short period of time and it takes higher speeds to do similar amounts of damage.