Wed., 9th of April 08 till Friday 11th outbreak-thread
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- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Wed., 9th of April 08 till Saturday 12th outbreak-thread
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0619
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0927 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN MO...EXTREME SWRN INDIANA...WRN
TN...SRN IL...NERN AR...WRN KY.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 185...186...188...
VALID 101427Z - 101630Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
185...186...188...CONTINUES.
ONE OR MORE OF THESE WWS MAY BE REPLACED BEFORE SCHEDULED EXPIRATION
FOR POSSIBILITY OF RENEWED WARM SECTOR POTENTIAL ACROSS REGION FROM
LOWER OH VALLEY SWWD ACROSS NERN AR AND WRN TN.
PRIMARY LINE OF TSTMS IS EVIDENT AT 1415Z FROM REYNOLDS COUNTY MO
SWWD TO PORTIONS VAN BUREN COUNTY AR...MOVING NEWD APPROXIMATELY 50
KT...WITH ABOUT 20 KT EWD COMPONENT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE TO ITS S. NRN PORTION OF THIS LINE WILL MOVE N OF WWS BUT
ALSO WILL OUTRUN FAVORABLE SFC-BASED DESTABILIZATION N OF WW ACROSS
SRN IL...HOWEVER MORE TIME EXISTS FOR WAA/HEATING TO WORK OVER SWRN
INDIANA IN ANOTHER 3-4 HOURS. MEANWHILE -- REMAINDER WW 185
SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 15Z...THEN 186 AND 188 AT 16Z. NERN AR/WRN
TN PORTION WW 186 HAS BEEN CLEARED LOCALLY...HOWEVER SVR POTENTIAL
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS FROM W-E...ACROSS NERN
AR AT FIRST...AS CONVECTION SPREADS INTO AREA. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED
TO DESTABILIZE WITH DIABATIC HEATING AND LOW LEVEL WAA...ERODING
SBCINH THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING...WHILE KINEMATIC PROFILES REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND POTENTIALLY TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS/BOWS. BULK SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN
STG ACROSS THIS REGION AS CENTRAL PLAINS LOW LIFTS NEWD...WITH 50-70
KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND 0-1 KM SRH GENERALLY AOA 500 J/KG.
FARTHER W -- ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF WRN OZARKS REGION MAY DESTABILIZE
AGAIN LATER TODAY...NEAR-TERM SVR POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED ENOUGH IN
STABILIZED AIR BEHIND INITIAL BAND OF TSTMS THAT THOSE PORTIONS OF
THESE WWS CAN BE CLEARED FROM W-E.
..EDWARDS.. 04/10/2008
ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
34919062 34939198 35069331 37489121 38248752 36678791
35038930
Those words suggest the watches may be dumped in favor of a large PDS watch...
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0927 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN MO...EXTREME SWRN INDIANA...WRN
TN...SRN IL...NERN AR...WRN KY.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 185...186...188...
VALID 101427Z - 101630Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
185...186...188...CONTINUES.
ONE OR MORE OF THESE WWS MAY BE REPLACED BEFORE SCHEDULED EXPIRATION
FOR POSSIBILITY OF RENEWED WARM SECTOR POTENTIAL ACROSS REGION FROM
LOWER OH VALLEY SWWD ACROSS NERN AR AND WRN TN.
PRIMARY LINE OF TSTMS IS EVIDENT AT 1415Z FROM REYNOLDS COUNTY MO
SWWD TO PORTIONS VAN BUREN COUNTY AR...MOVING NEWD APPROXIMATELY 50
KT...WITH ABOUT 20 KT EWD COMPONENT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE TO ITS S. NRN PORTION OF THIS LINE WILL MOVE N OF WWS BUT
ALSO WILL OUTRUN FAVORABLE SFC-BASED DESTABILIZATION N OF WW ACROSS
SRN IL...HOWEVER MORE TIME EXISTS FOR WAA/HEATING TO WORK OVER SWRN
INDIANA IN ANOTHER 3-4 HOURS. MEANWHILE -- REMAINDER WW 185
SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 15Z...THEN 186 AND 188 AT 16Z. NERN AR/WRN
TN PORTION WW 186 HAS BEEN CLEARED LOCALLY...HOWEVER SVR POTENTIAL
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS FROM W-E...ACROSS NERN
AR AT FIRST...AS CONVECTION SPREADS INTO AREA. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED
TO DESTABILIZE WITH DIABATIC HEATING AND LOW LEVEL WAA...ERODING
SBCINH THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING...WHILE KINEMATIC PROFILES REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND POTENTIALLY TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS/BOWS. BULK SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN
STG ACROSS THIS REGION AS CENTRAL PLAINS LOW LIFTS NEWD...WITH 50-70
KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND 0-1 KM SRH GENERALLY AOA 500 J/KG.
FARTHER W -- ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF WRN OZARKS REGION MAY DESTABILIZE
AGAIN LATER TODAY...NEAR-TERM SVR POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED ENOUGH IN
STABILIZED AIR BEHIND INITIAL BAND OF TSTMS THAT THOSE PORTIONS OF
THESE WWS CAN BE CLEARED FROM W-E.
..EDWARDS.. 04/10/2008
ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
34919062 34939198 35069331 37489121 38248752 36678791
35038930
Those words suggest the watches may be dumped in favor of a large PDS watch...
0 likes
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
950 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
A LARGE PART OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY
PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 950 AM UNTIL
500 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS TO 10 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CARBONDALE
ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 187...WW 189...
DISCUSSION...IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE WATCH AREA AS THE
INTENSE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF LINE OF STORMS FROM SERN MO TO SWRN
AR. POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL INCREASE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LINE OF CONVECTION.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.
...HALES
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
950 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
A LARGE PART OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY
PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 950 AM UNTIL
500 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS TO 10 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CARBONDALE
ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 187...WW 189...
DISCUSSION...IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE WATCH AREA AS THE
INTENSE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF LINE OF STORMS FROM SERN MO TO SWRN
AR. POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL INCREASE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LINE OF CONVECTION.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.
...HALES
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 101447
WOU0
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
950 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008
TORNADO WATCH 190 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ARC021-023-029-031-035-037-045-049-055-063-065-067-075-077-093-
105-107-111-121-123-135-137-141-145-147-102200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0190.080410T1450Z-080410T2200Z/
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CLEBURNE CONWAY
CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS
FAULKNER FULTON GREENE
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON
LAWRENCE LEE MISSISSIPPI
PERRY PHILLIPS POINSETT
RANDOLPH SHARP ST. FRANCIS
STONE VAN BUREN WHITE
WOODRUFF
ILC003-059-069-077-087-127-151-153-165-181-199-102200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0190.080410T1450Z-080410T2200Z/
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER GALLATIN HARDIN
JACKSON JOHNSON MASSAC
POPE PULASKI SALINE
UNION WILLIAMSON
KYC007-039-055-075-083-105-139-145-102200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0190.080410T1450Z-080410T2200Z/
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE CRITTENDEN
FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN
LIVINGSTON MCCRACKEN
MOC017-023-031-035-069-123-133-143-149-155-157-181-186-187-201-
207-223-102200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0190.080410T1450Z-080410T2200Z/
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER DUNKLIN MADISON
MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID OREGON
PEMISCOT PERRY RIPLEY
SCOTT ST. FRANCOIS STE. GENEVIEVE
STODDARD WAYNE
ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...LSX...SGF...LZK...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 190 TORNADO AR IL KY MO 101450Z - 102200Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25ESE LIT/LITTLE ROCK AR/ - 10ENE MDH/CARBONDALE IL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /19ESE LIT - 55E FAM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.
LAT...LON 34589297 37839026 37838788 34589068
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 190 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
950 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
A LARGE PART OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY
PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 950 AM UNTIL
500 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS TO 10 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CARBONDALE
ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 187...WW 189...
DISCUSSION...IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE WATCH AREA AS THE
INTENSE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF LINE OF STORMS FROM SERN MO TO SWRN
AR. POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL INCREASE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LINE OF CONVECTION.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.
...HALES
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
950 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
A LARGE PART OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY
PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 950 AM UNTIL
500 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS TO 10 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CARBONDALE
ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 187...WW 189...
DISCUSSION...IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE WATCH AREA AS THE
INTENSE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF LINE OF STORMS FROM SERN MO TO SWRN
AR. POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL INCREASE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LINE OF CONVECTION.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.
...HALES
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 101447
WOU0
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
950 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008
TORNADO WATCH 190 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ARC021-023-029-031-035-037-045-049-055-063-065-067-075-077-093-
105-107-111-121-123-135-137-141-145-147-102200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0190.080410T1450Z-080410T2200Z/
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CLEBURNE CONWAY
CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS
FAULKNER FULTON GREENE
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON
LAWRENCE LEE MISSISSIPPI
PERRY PHILLIPS POINSETT
RANDOLPH SHARP ST. FRANCIS
STONE VAN BUREN WHITE
WOODRUFF
ILC003-059-069-077-087-127-151-153-165-181-199-102200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0190.080410T1450Z-080410T2200Z/
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER GALLATIN HARDIN
JACKSON JOHNSON MASSAC
POPE PULASKI SALINE
UNION WILLIAMSON
KYC007-039-055-075-083-105-139-145-102200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0190.080410T1450Z-080410T2200Z/
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE CRITTENDEN
FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN
LIVINGSTON MCCRACKEN
MOC017-023-031-035-069-123-133-143-149-155-157-181-186-187-201-
207-223-102200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0190.080410T1450Z-080410T2200Z/
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER DUNKLIN MADISON
MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID OREGON
PEMISCOT PERRY RIPLEY
SCOTT ST. FRANCOIS STE. GENEVIEVE
STODDARD WAYNE
ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...LSX...SGF...LZK...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 190 TORNADO AR IL KY MO 101450Z - 102200Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25ESE LIT/LITTLE ROCK AR/ - 10ENE MDH/CARBONDALE IL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /19ESE LIT - 55E FAM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.
LAT...LON 34589297 37839026 37838788 34589068
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 190 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
0 likes
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- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Cloud deck practically gone now from Arkansas southward, and thinning out farther north as well.
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/s ... st&type=ir
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/s ... st&type=ir
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Re: Wed., 9th of April 08 till Saturday 12th outbreak-thread
WRF doesn't show massive rains into Western Tennessee and Kentucky later this afternoon, more like scattered storms, but decent, if not super high instability combined with super-high helicity means any storms could be tornadic.

0 likes
Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:CINH 15 is high or low? The helicity and lifting look sufficient for supercell tornadoes...
CINH of 15 is low, and in MEM sounding that looks right, but there is a bug in NIU Machine Sounding as it shows almost no CINH in Houston, despite a cap of forged steel between 750 mb and 600 mb
CINH below about 50 is breakable with forcing.
0 likes
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Wed., 9th of April 08 till Saturday 12th outbreak-thread
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0620
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/NE TX...NRN LA...SRN/ERN/CENTRAL
AR...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN KY.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 187...189...190...
VALID 101551Z - 101715Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
187...189...190...CONTINUES.
REMAINING PORTIONS WW 187 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 17Z OR
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...AS REMAINING CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF AREA
AND LOW LEVEL LIFT WEAKENS INVOF PREFRONTAL TROUGH. HOWEVER...SVR
POTENTIAL NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL CONCENTRATE MORE TIGHTLY NE OF
THAT AREA ACROSS PORTIONS AR NOW COVERED BY WWS 189-190.
ACCORDINGLY...CURRENT PLAN IS TO MOVE CATEGORICAL MDT RISK NWD FROM
LA AND FOCUSED ON AREAS FROM SERN AR NNEWD TO LOWEST OH RIVER VALLEY
IN WWS 189-190.
AS DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE OCCLUDES AND LIFTS NNEWD OVER CENTRAL PLAINS
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...EXPECT WEAKENING DEEP-LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTIVE BAND ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS ACTUALLY MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND
TORNADOES WITH TIME OVER PORTIONS AR...BECAUSE OF TENDENCY AWAY FROM
STRONGLY FORCED/LINEAR ASCENT...IN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND VERY STG SHEAR. THIS TENDENCY ALREADY IS EVIDENT
WITH POTENTIALLY TORNADIC TSTM CROSSING GRANT COUNTY AR AS OF
1550Z...WHICH MAY TRACK NEWD OVER SRN/ERN FRINGES LIT METRO AREA.
VWP/PROFILER TRENDS...MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS ALL SUGGEST
LARGE HODOGRAPHS -- CHARACTERIZED BY 0-1 KM SRH AOA 400 J/KG -- WILL
PERSIST ESPECIALLY OVER AR AND EVEN AS FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY TO MORE
PURELY SLY DIRECTION. RICHER MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES FROM GULF THAT
ACCOMPANY THIS VEERING ALSO WILL AID IN INCREASING BUOYANCY. BKN
CLOUD COVER NOW EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY WILL RESULT IN POCKETS OF
ENHANCED SFC HEATING...COMBINING WITH MOIST ADVECTION TO YIELD
MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG AND TO WEAKEN REMAINING CINH.
..EDWARDS.. 04/10/2008
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
32999365 34049293 35329201 37079045 37608931 37408838
36518927 34239076 32929157 31879383 31659448
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/NE TX...NRN LA...SRN/ERN/CENTRAL
AR...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN KY.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 187...189...190...
VALID 101551Z - 101715Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
187...189...190...CONTINUES.
REMAINING PORTIONS WW 187 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 17Z OR
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...AS REMAINING CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF AREA
AND LOW LEVEL LIFT WEAKENS INVOF PREFRONTAL TROUGH. HOWEVER...SVR
POTENTIAL NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL CONCENTRATE MORE TIGHTLY NE OF
THAT AREA ACROSS PORTIONS AR NOW COVERED BY WWS 189-190.
ACCORDINGLY...CURRENT PLAN IS TO MOVE CATEGORICAL MDT RISK NWD FROM
LA AND FOCUSED ON AREAS FROM SERN AR NNEWD TO LOWEST OH RIVER VALLEY
IN WWS 189-190.
AS DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE OCCLUDES AND LIFTS NNEWD OVER CENTRAL PLAINS
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...EXPECT WEAKENING DEEP-LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTIVE BAND ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS ACTUALLY MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND
TORNADOES WITH TIME OVER PORTIONS AR...BECAUSE OF TENDENCY AWAY FROM
STRONGLY FORCED/LINEAR ASCENT...IN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND VERY STG SHEAR. THIS TENDENCY ALREADY IS EVIDENT
WITH POTENTIALLY TORNADIC TSTM CROSSING GRANT COUNTY AR AS OF
1550Z...WHICH MAY TRACK NEWD OVER SRN/ERN FRINGES LIT METRO AREA.
VWP/PROFILER TRENDS...MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS ALL SUGGEST
LARGE HODOGRAPHS -- CHARACTERIZED BY 0-1 KM SRH AOA 400 J/KG -- WILL
PERSIST ESPECIALLY OVER AR AND EVEN AS FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY TO MORE
PURELY SLY DIRECTION. RICHER MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES FROM GULF THAT
ACCOMPANY THIS VEERING ALSO WILL AID IN INCREASING BUOYANCY. BKN
CLOUD COVER NOW EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY WILL RESULT IN POCKETS OF
ENHANCED SFC HEATING...COMBINING WITH MOIST ADVECTION TO YIELD
MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG AND TO WEAKEN REMAINING CINH.
..EDWARDS.. 04/10/2008
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
32999365 34049293 35329201 37079045 37608931 37408838
36518927 34239076 32929157 31879383 31659448
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-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2165
- Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2007 4:00 pm
- Location: Fairfax, VA
Re: Re:
6SpeedTA95 wrote:A few minor touchdowns. The 15% hatched didn't materialize. There was what one or two confirmed in texas, 4 I believe in oklahoma and 3 in arkansas? Unless poop hit the fan after I went to bed, I'd say based on yesterday 10%H is a bit conservative but I dont lbame them.
There were more than a few minor touchdowns - but they haven't been reported yet. Spotters gave updates of large and dangerous tornadoes on the ground, which means, simply put, that the SPC has not gotten around to posting the reports yet. And as I recall, there were TORs going up ever ~4 minutes for about an hour. I'm not sure when you went to bed, but you probably missed something.
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- jasons2k
- Storm2k Executive
- Posts: 8245
- Age: 51
- Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
- Location: The Woodlands, TX
Re: Wed., 9th of April 08 till Saturday 12th outbreak-thread
This email is from my sister who works in Lubys' corporate office:
"Our location in Plano had LOTS of property damage (roof blown off, trees down, etc.) from a storm that blew thru the area last night. "
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- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Wed., 9th of April 08 till Saturday 12th outbreak-thread
jasons wrote:This email is from my sister who works in Lubys' corporate office:"Our location in Plano had LOTS of property damage (roof blown off, trees down, etc.) from a storm that blew thru the area last night. "
Sounds like derecho winds around 100 mph there...
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- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Wed., 9th of April 08 till Saturday 12th outbreak-thread
Tornado threat increased to 15%, wind threat decreased (hence the loss of parts of the MDT).
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008
VALID 101630Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR NE
LA...ERN AR...NW MS TO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS/OH RIVERS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT...FROM E
TX/LA TO MID MS AND OH VALLEYS THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EJECTING NEWD OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE/WRN OK/SW KS AS OF LATE MORNING...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLONES IN EXTREME SW KS AND CENTRAL KS. THE TWO SURFACE CYCLONES
SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE LOW THIS AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL
KS...AND THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NEWD TO IA AND MAINTAIN
INTENSITY OVERNIGHT. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS OCCURRING ACROSS ERN
OK/NE TX IN ADVANCE OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS/COOLER TEMPERATURES FARTHER N INTO ERN KS/WRN MO. THE
PROSPECTS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ARE QUESTIONABLE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN NE TX/ERN OK/WRN AR/SW MO/SE KS THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN A TENDENCY FOR DRYING WITH TIME.
OTHER CLEARING IS OCCURRING IN A NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS CENTRAL MO
BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS MORE
PROBABLE HERE COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER SW...THOUGH EXTREME VERTICAL
SHEAR BENEATH THE MID-UPPER JET CORE MAY LARGELY OVERWHELM THE
RELATIVELY WEAK BUOYANCY. ANY STORMS THAT FORM ACROSS CENTRAL/NE MO
WILL SPREAD INTO IL THIS AFTERNOON/ EVENING...WITH AN ATTENDANT
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. THIS
LEAVES THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AREA ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
IN AR AND S OF THE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD TOWARD SRN
IL/INDIANA.
...LOWER MS AND OH VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
A BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS WEAKENING GRADUALLY FROM NW LA
NNEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AR INTO SE MO. THE EWD PROGRESS OF THIS BAND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE DEEP SYNOPTIC
CYCLONE OCCLUDES AND LIFTS NNEWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING WILL PERSIST IN ADVANCE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION AS
MID-UPPER 60 BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SPREAD NWD FROM LA INTO ERN
AR/WRN MS/WRN TN...AND POSSIBLY SE MO THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG IN THE WARM
SECTOR /0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF
300-600 M2 PER S2/...WHERE 70-80 KT MID LEVEL FLOW OVERLAYS A 50-60
KT LLJ.
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE THE IMPACT OF DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY MODEST WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY. REGIONAL 12Z
SOUNDINGS REVEALED RELATIVELY HIGH LFC/S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
LIMITED TO A SMALL PART OF THE MID TROPOSPHERE /600-450 MB/...WHILE
CLOUDS ARE SLOWING SURFACE HEATING FROM E CENTRAL AR NWD. DESPITE
MLCAPE VALUES OF ONLY 750-1500 J/KG...THE WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL
FORCING SUGGESTS THAT THE THREAT FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE A CORRIDOR WITH A SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS ERN AR/EXTREME NW MS/WRN TN...AND
PERHAPS AS FAR N AS SE MO AND EXTREME WRN KY /DEPENDING ON L0W-LEVEL
DESTABILIZATION/. ANY RELATIVELY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS COULD
PRODUCE STRONG TORNADOES IN THIS MOIST/STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE SEVERE STORM THREAT SHOULD SPREAD NEWD LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD...THOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED THAN AREAS TO THE SW THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE
SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY ACROSS LA/MS. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
..THOMPSON/SMITH.. 04/10/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1637Z (12:37PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008
VALID 101630Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR NE
LA...ERN AR...NW MS TO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS/OH RIVERS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT...FROM E
TX/LA TO MID MS AND OH VALLEYS THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EJECTING NEWD OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE/WRN OK/SW KS AS OF LATE MORNING...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLONES IN EXTREME SW KS AND CENTRAL KS. THE TWO SURFACE CYCLONES
SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE LOW THIS AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL
KS...AND THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NEWD TO IA AND MAINTAIN
INTENSITY OVERNIGHT. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS OCCURRING ACROSS ERN
OK/NE TX IN ADVANCE OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS/COOLER TEMPERATURES FARTHER N INTO ERN KS/WRN MO. THE
PROSPECTS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ARE QUESTIONABLE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN NE TX/ERN OK/WRN AR/SW MO/SE KS THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN A TENDENCY FOR DRYING WITH TIME.
OTHER CLEARING IS OCCURRING IN A NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS CENTRAL MO
BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS MORE
PROBABLE HERE COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER SW...THOUGH EXTREME VERTICAL
SHEAR BENEATH THE MID-UPPER JET CORE MAY LARGELY OVERWHELM THE
RELATIVELY WEAK BUOYANCY. ANY STORMS THAT FORM ACROSS CENTRAL/NE MO
WILL SPREAD INTO IL THIS AFTERNOON/ EVENING...WITH AN ATTENDANT
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. THIS
LEAVES THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AREA ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
IN AR AND S OF THE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD TOWARD SRN
IL/INDIANA.
...LOWER MS AND OH VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
A BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS WEAKENING GRADUALLY FROM NW LA
NNEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AR INTO SE MO. THE EWD PROGRESS OF THIS BAND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE DEEP SYNOPTIC
CYCLONE OCCLUDES AND LIFTS NNEWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING WILL PERSIST IN ADVANCE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION AS
MID-UPPER 60 BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SPREAD NWD FROM LA INTO ERN
AR/WRN MS/WRN TN...AND POSSIBLY SE MO THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG IN THE WARM
SECTOR /0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF
300-600 M2 PER S2/...WHERE 70-80 KT MID LEVEL FLOW OVERLAYS A 50-60
KT LLJ.
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE THE IMPACT OF DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY MODEST WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY. REGIONAL 12Z
SOUNDINGS REVEALED RELATIVELY HIGH LFC/S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
LIMITED TO A SMALL PART OF THE MID TROPOSPHERE /600-450 MB/...WHILE
CLOUDS ARE SLOWING SURFACE HEATING FROM E CENTRAL AR NWD. DESPITE
MLCAPE VALUES OF ONLY 750-1500 J/KG...THE WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL
FORCING SUGGESTS THAT THE THREAT FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE A CORRIDOR WITH A SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS ERN AR/EXTREME NW MS/WRN TN...AND
PERHAPS AS FAR N AS SE MO AND EXTREME WRN KY /DEPENDING ON L0W-LEVEL
DESTABILIZATION/. ANY RELATIVELY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS COULD
PRODUCE STRONG TORNADOES IN THIS MOIST/STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE SEVERE STORM THREAT SHOULD SPREAD NEWD LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD...THOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED THAN AREAS TO THE SW THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE
SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY ACROSS LA/MS. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
..THOMPSON/SMITH.. 04/10/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1637Z (12:37PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re:
RL3AO wrote:I think those who choose not to go high risk at 1730 yesterday have bragging rights for the week.
So true since it is almost impossible to back off on it at day 1.
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Re:
RL3AO wrote:I think those who choose not to go high risk at 1730 yesterday have bragging rights for the week.
Yeah, that would have been what, only the second time a Day 2 HIGH was issued? Don't want to blow a call like that.
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