Texas Fall-2015

[gboudx]

:uarrow: thats what made 2011 so bad. It started higher but lost an incredible volume in just a few months. 2014 was already preconditioned for years (thanks to 2011) to start and end low. 2011 did this statewide, region wide. Nothing this year even is remotely close

To go from normal lake levels to historic lows in one year is not easy, 2011 was a trifecta of soil drought, atmospheric drought, and immense evaporation of the water source systems

If I remember right...2011 is also about when Ray Hubbard was taken offline for drinking water because of the zebra mussels.

Maybe you're thinking of Lavon? But Lavon wasn't taken offline for drinking water though. The NTMWD stopped the flow of water from Texoma into it. Instead they built a huge pipeline to bring raw Texoma water straight to the treatment facility.

[Ntxw]

I've been watching teleconnections this summer and have noticed the the AO and NAO have been hard pressed to go positive. Is this a harbinger of what we can expect this Winter or is it too early to tell just yet? Also, the PNA is about to go extremely negative - 2 to 4 SD's below normal - what, if any, effect will that have on weather here?

I think -AO/NAO is a good chance, El Nino loves those too. PNA is always mostly positive during El Nino as well, I can't find a Nino with a -PNA. The big question mark is the EPO (the blob). Will it resist ENSO or succumb to it like in 1982 and 1997? Or will the EPO hold with the +PDO and stay over NW North America like in 1963 and 2009 El Ninos!

In Texas is very simple, -EPO you get arctic air. +EPO it is moderated warmer Pacific air doesn't matter El Nino, Neutral, or La Nina.

[Ntxw]

Been awhile since posted an image of the Nino here. We often look at the gulf and assume it is the biggest nearby body of water that influences our weather. We forget to look even further south and an even bigger body of water below us where El Nino and La Nina exists right below us spanning over five thousand+ miles across. The biggest global weather phenomenon modulating everything weather! It is one doozy of an El Nino.

[Brent]

0z GFS for DFW

Minimum temperature through 384 hours: 71 degrees
0.06" of rain



2015: The year summer wouldn't start and now won't endddddd

[Texas Snowman]

That's IF the GFS proves accurate.

As I'm typing this, big downpour occurring on the roof in Denison.

[Texas Snowman]

I'm curious though. If that's what the GFS shows through 384 hours...then where's the Cat 5 in the Gulf?!?

[Ntxw]

There's going to be some busts today. Noted a few days ago with the back and forth between GFS/ECMWF on one side of the front it won't warm up much at all while the other end is mostly dry and warm. The front looks to be crossing somewhere in DFW. Should be an interesting day for some.

Also the STJ is screaming up towards the southwest US. SoCal is getting more crazy out of season rain along with the desert southwest into West Texas. If the models are off by a few hundred miles the weather is very different.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I think this winter we get a bit of both -EPO and Bowling ball Lows like '97. I think they will seesaw back and forth personally. I have no idea if its 'mechanically' possible but i think thats how this winter will go. Especially if the El nino peaks a bit early and possibly shifts to a modiki or isnt your traditional El Nino. The blob still has to be there. Hasnt it been weakening lately?

[Tireman4]

Yeah I agree with Ntxw..he has been our long range expert for years....Fall will come.....maybe off by a week, but it will come...meanwhile my sweat soaked 8 miler is at 5 pm...even indoors at 78... it is still ughh...7:41 pace here we come..yea...sigh..

[Brent]

We have rain!!!

[weatherdude1108]

We have rain!!!

WOOHOO!!

[JDawg512]

It's cruel watching the rain on radar not too far away yet knowing that it will never make it here

[weatherdude1108]

It's cruel watching the rain on radar not too far away yet knowing that it will never make it here

Yep. I can't count the number of times I have seen that.

[Brent]

FWD late evening update, maybe the pattern is slowly changing:


IN ADDITION...ALSO INCREASED THE POPS FOR SUNDAY AS MOST MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION IN OKLAHOMA WILL SINK SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER WITH THE AIDE OF A COMBINATION OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...THE DISTURBANCES MENTIONED ABOVE AND A TRANSITION TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY ARE NOW NORTH
OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO DFW TO CANTON AND THESE MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED MORE WITH THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST IF HI-RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

[Ntxw]

Another temperature bust day on tap for DFW from the guidance a few days ago. Mid 90s is not happening today. GFS only got this right up to the days, Euro nailed it almost several days out but lost it. STJ is giving them fits.

[Tireman4]

Ok..Ntxw..look into your crystal ball...Mr.
. long range guy..first true front.....last week September...first week of October?

[Ntxw]

Ok..Ntxw..look into your crystal ball...Mr.
. long range guy..first true front.....last week September...first week of October?

Hmm...on the spot...I'm looking...looking...I see an image of wxman57 grinning...yikes

Kidding . I see on the models and signals that the EPO will finally go negative after September 25th. So sometime between Sept 28 and Oct 5th should feature a bonafide cold front I believe. That would be my guess as ridging finally dislodges some Alaskan air.

[Brent]

Another temperature bust day on tap for DFW from the guidance a few days ago. Mid 90s is not happening today. GFS only got this right up to the days, Euro nailed it almost several days out but lost it. STJ is giving them fits.

Hope that's a pattern for the winter.

[Ntxw]

HRRR converges the cluster coming out of Oklahoma and storms building out wnw this afternoon with good coverage of rain for North Texas. Which model had that?

[Brent]

Omg this outflow cooled air is amazing! Big fall preview. Wish it would stay.

On a related note... weatherbug has a "cold" front next Sunday, no rain but temps drop from around 90 to the mid 80s.