SE TX weather thread #4 - Severe weather Fri/Sat
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- weatherrabbit_tx
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- Extremeweatherguy
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http://www.srh.weather.gov/productview. ... =CRPAFDCRP
http://www.srh.weather.gov/productview. ... =HGXAFDHGX
Looks like the plain ol weather is about to come to an end. Could be a decent rain event setting up over the week with decent PWS values for this time of year.
A good sign for parts of the state that really need the rain....
http://www.srh.weather.gov/productview. ... =HGXAFDHGX
Looks like the plain ol weather is about to come to an end. Could be a decent rain event setting up over the week with decent PWS values for this time of year.
A good sign for parts of the state that really need the rain....
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- Extremeweatherguy
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- weatherrabbit_tx
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- AnnularCane
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- Extremeweatherguy
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Here is a part of the latest Houston AFD talking about the heavy rain and severe threat coming up:
EVENING ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED SINCE
YESTERDAY WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS OF 10-12C. MODELS SHOW A SURGE OF
EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE (PWS OF 1.5+ INCHES) SPREADING NORTH INTO
SE TX THIS AFTN AND LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A
DISTURBANCE IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET NEAR BAJA WILL PUSH QUICKLY
EASTWARD AND WILL MOVE ACROSS SE TX WEDNESDAY MORNING. COMBINATION
OF INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...HIGH
PWS...AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT/WED MORNING. LATEST MODEL
RUNS SHOW AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SPREADING NORTH INTO
THE CWA LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING AS COASTAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND.
GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS 12-18Z WEDNESDAY SHOW LIS -2 TO -4 AND
CAPES OF 1000+ SOUTH OF I-10. SHEAR PROFILE IS VERY IMPRESSIVE
WITH HELICITIES OF 150-300 M2/S2 AND PLENTY OF TURNING IN THE LOW
LEVELS. CONCERNED THAT ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL ZONES AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT...WITH A LOW END SEVERE
THREAT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO MENTION
SEVERE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL MENTION THREAT
FOR LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY IN THE HWOHGX. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY FAST
STORM MOTION MAY HELP TO MITIGATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
EVENING ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED SINCE
YESTERDAY WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS OF 10-12C. MODELS SHOW A SURGE OF
EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE (PWS OF 1.5+ INCHES) SPREADING NORTH INTO
SE TX THIS AFTN AND LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A
DISTURBANCE IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET NEAR BAJA WILL PUSH QUICKLY
EASTWARD AND WILL MOVE ACROSS SE TX WEDNESDAY MORNING. COMBINATION
OF INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...HIGH
PWS...AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT/WED MORNING. LATEST MODEL
RUNS SHOW AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SPREADING NORTH INTO
THE CWA LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING AS COASTAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND.
GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS 12-18Z WEDNESDAY SHOW LIS -2 TO -4 AND
CAPES OF 1000+ SOUTH OF I-10. SHEAR PROFILE IS VERY IMPRESSIVE
WITH HELICITIES OF 150-300 M2/S2 AND PLENTY OF TURNING IN THE LOW
LEVELS. CONCERNED THAT ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL ZONES AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT...WITH A LOW END SEVERE
THREAT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO MENTION
SEVERE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL MENTION THREAT
FOR LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY IN THE HWOHGX. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY FAST
STORM MOTION MAY HELP TO MITIGATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
643 AM CST TUE DEC 19 2006
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-201300-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
643 AM CST TUE DEC 19 2006
...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES...
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS
UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. MINOR FLOODING OF STREETS...FEEDER
ROADS...UNDERPASSES...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT.
.DAY TWO...WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY THE
EVENING HOURS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE ON WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE
ISOLATED TORNADOES OR DAMAGING WINDS.
IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING
OF STREETS...FEEDER ROADS...UNDERPASSES...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS.
.DAY THREE...THURSDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW OF THESE
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
.DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
643 AM CST TUE DEC 19 2006
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-201300-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
643 AM CST TUE DEC 19 2006
...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES...
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS
UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. MINOR FLOODING OF STREETS...FEEDER
ROADS...UNDERPASSES...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT.
.DAY TWO...WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY THE
EVENING HOURS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE ON WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE
ISOLATED TORNADOES OR DAMAGING WINDS.
IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING
OF STREETS...FEEDER ROADS...UNDERPASSES...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS.
.DAY THREE...THURSDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW OF THESE
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
.DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED
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- JenBayles
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- Posts: 3461
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- Joined: Tue Aug 26, 2003 3:27 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
AnnularCane wrote:JenBayles wrote:How about dat? We got a decent rain under the Dome today. I'll take it! I'll take it!
They got roof problems?
Hi there Annular! That would be the "Bear Creek Dome" over here in West Houston. You could say we have roof problems of a sort: every storm system that swings through is usually repelled by the almost permanent cap that exists over my subdivision.

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JenBayles wrote:
Hi there Annular! That would be the "Bear Creek Dome" over here in West Houston. You could say we have roof problems of a sort: every storm system that swings through is usually repelled by the almost permanent cap that exists over my subdivision.
Hmmmmmm, I wonder why there is a cap over your area? It's forested if I recall.
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- JenBayles
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Nope - flat rice fields with mostly sun-baked squares of new construction with maybe a seedling tree stuck in the front yards. I'm in an older more established subdivision, but the general area is completely flat. We're just outside the edge of the Piney Woods but really more coastal-type plains. <puts on aluminum foil hat> It was really the ALIENS you know...



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- Extremeweatherguy
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- JenBayles
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- Joined: Tue Aug 26, 2003 3:27 pm
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Been watching that myself Extreme, and waiting to see if the Power of the Dome will hold... so far today, it has.
While Yankeegirl and I were having coffee at Starbucks yesterday, we noticed a black cloud over towards the Bear Creek Dome. Looked like it had failed for once, but nooooooo! Not a stinking drop!

While Yankeegirl and I were having coffee at Starbucks yesterday, we noticed a black cloud over towards the Bear Creek Dome. Looked like it had failed for once, but nooooooo! Not a stinking drop!
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