***CURRENT WATCHES/WARNINGS/STORMS/REPORTS IN THE US***

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1000 AM EST SAT MAR 15 2003


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN OHIO...

COSHOCTON

THIS FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM EST SUNDAY. THE
MUSKINGUM RIVER AT COSHOCTON WILL STAY ABOVE THE FLOOD STAGE OF 13
FEET INTO SUNDAY. AT 1000 AM THE STAGE WAS 13.8 FEET AND
SLOWLY RISING.

EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER
LEVELS MAY BE DEEPER THAN EXPECTED.

THIS FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM EST SUNDAY, AND
MAY BE EXTENDED AT THAT TIME.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

[wx247]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0254
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 PM CST SAT MAR 15 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL / SRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 151930Z - 152130Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY/WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM DAB SWWD
TO AROUND TPA. ALONG THE ERN PENINSULA...SEA BREEZE HAS STARTED
TO MOVE INLAND AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 20 ESE ORL TO 25 N OF
MIA. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH
MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HODOGRAPHS
INDICATE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE NWD TO SEA
BREEZE/FRONT TRIPLE POINT OVER THE CNTRL PENINSULA. HERE 35-40 KT
WLY 500 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST ABOVE ELY SURFACE
FLOW...EFFECTIVELY CREATING MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS. FURTHER S OVER SRN FL...SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS NOT AS LIKELY DUE TO WEAKER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0255
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 PM CST SAT MAR 15 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 152111Z - 152315Z

ISOLATED LARGE HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.
WW NOT ANTICIPATED.

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR DATA SHOW TSTMS INCREASING ACROSS THE SRN
JAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM FAT
TO NLC. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH HAS BECOME MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG. LATEST FRESNO VWP SHOWS
FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS. LOW WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE AS LOW-LEVEL
WINDS REMAIN BACKED AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...YIELDING 0-3 KM
STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES OF 200-250 M2/S2.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

Wind Reports
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1844 60 PROGRESO HIDALGO TX 2609 9796 DOWNED POWER LINES REPORTED BY TEXAS DPS. (BRO)
0544 60 PROGRESO HIDALGO TX 2609 9796 DOWNED POWER LINES REPORTED BY TEXAS DPS. (BRO)

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

Hail Reports
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2240 75 SEBRING HIGHLANDS FL 2749 8144 REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. (TBW)
2300 100 4 N WHYNOT LAUDERDALE MS 3234 8850 REPORTED BY LAUDERDALE COUNTY EMA. (JAN)
2310 75 SANDERSVILLE JONES MS 3178 8903 REPORTED BY JONES COUNTY EMA. (JAN)
2315 75 CUBA SUMTER AL 3243 8838 DIME SIZED HAIL. REPORT FROM CUBA FIRE AND RESCUE. (BHM)
2325 100 2 SE MERIDIAN LAUDERDALE MS 3234 8868 GROUND COVERED WITH NICKEL AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. REPORTED BY MERIDIAN DISPATCH. (JAN)
2337 75 STEVENS COUNTY STEVENS WA 4848 11786 (OTX)
2345 175 JACKSONS GAP TALLAPOOSA AL 3288 8580 GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL. REPORT FROM COUNTY SHERIFF. (BHM)
0003 100 ALEXANDER CITY TALLAPOOSA AL 3295 8596 QUARTER SIZED HAIL COVERING THE GROUND. REPORT FROM MEDIA. (BHM)
0010 175 PITTSVIEW RUSSELL AL 3218 8516 REPORTED BY THE POLICE DEPARTMENT. (BHM)
0015 75 TALLAPOOSA COUNTY TALLAPOOSA AL 3280 8585 REPORTED BY TALLAPOOSA COUNTY EMA. (BHM)
0020 100 BASINGER OKEECHOBEE FL 2738 8103 REPORTED BY OKEECHOBEE COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE. (MLB)
0025 175 PITTSVIEW RUSSELL AL 3218 8516 GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL. REPORT FROM EMA. (BHM)
0030 88 AUBURN LEE AL 3261 8546 NICKEL SIZED HAIL IN SOUTHWEST PART OF CITY. REPORT FROM AMATEUR RADIO. (BHM)
0048 75 MILLERVILLE CLAY AL 3318 8593 REPORT FROM EMA. (BHM)
0105 75 DEMOPOLIS MARENGO AL 3251 8783 REPORTED BY DEMOPOLIS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT. (BHM)
0127 100 ST CLOUD OSCEOLA FL 2825 8128 REPORTED BY FLORIDA HIGHWAY PATROL ON FLORIDA TURNPIKE (MLB)
0141 100 CARLSBAD EDDY NM 3241 10423 HAIL RANGING FROM HALF INCH TO QUARTER SIZED FELL FROM 641 TO 647 MST. RPTD BY STORM SPOTTER. (MAF)
0205 75 ST CLOUD OSCEOLA FL 2825 8128 TREE TOP DAMAGE, CARPORT DAMAGE. DEER RUN NEAR CANOE CREEK ROAD. REPORTED BY OSCEOLA HAM RADIO OPERATOR. (MLB)
0229 75 4 W LOCO HILLS EDDY NM 3281 10406 RPDT BY VOL FD COVERING GROUND ON HWY 82. (MAF)
0232 100 ORLANDO ORANGE FL 2854 8136 ON NARCOOSSEE RD 4 MILES SE OF ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. REPORTED BY SKYWARN SPOTTER. (MLB)
0252 75 PRATTVILLE AUTAUGA AL 3246 8648 PUBLIC REPORT. (BHM)
0310 75 ORLANDO ORANGE FL 2854 8136 SR 417 AND EAST/WEST EXPRESSWAY IN METRO ORLANDO REPORTED BY OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE (MLB)
0320 100 SEMINOLE COUNTY SEMINOLE FL 2873 8121 JUST NORTH OF GOLDENROD. REPORTED BY SEMINOLE COUNTY FIRE DEPARTMENT. (MLB)
0430 75 DELTONA VOLUSIA FL 2888 8123 REPORTED BY TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER. (MLB)
Wind Reports
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2237 60 PARADISE SANDERS MT 4738 11481 *** 1 INJ *** WIND GUST BLEW TREES ONTO POWER LINES INJURING A MAN. (MSO)
2248 61 POLSON LAKE MT 4768 11416 ALERT WEATHER STATION IN POLSON RECORDED SOUTH WIND 30 MPH GUSTING 61 MPH. (MSO)
2300 60 DIXON SANDERS MT 4731 11431 ROOF BLOWN OFF MOBILE HOME AND HIT OLD DIXON STORE AND BLEW DOWN POWER LINES. (MSO)
2300 60 10 W POLSON LAKE MT 4768 11441 SMALL BARN BLOWN OVER IN IRVINE FLATS. (MSO)
2320 60 POLSON LAKE MT 4768 11416 IN POLSON, OLD MILL PLACE BUILDING FACING BLOWN OFF ONTO CAR. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN FROM RONAN TO FINLEY POINT. (MSO)
2335 60 BIGFORK FLATHEAD MT 4806 11406 TREE BLOWN DOWN 12 INCHES IN DIAMETER. FENCE DAMAGED. (MSO)
2345 UNK JACKSONS GAP TALLAPOOSA AL 3288 8580 ROOF DAMAGE TO A MOBILE HOME. REPORT FROM EMA. (BHM)
0155 60 ORTONA GLADES FL 2681 8131 (MIA)

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC086-160030-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
625 PM EST SAT MAR 15 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA

* UNTIL 730 PM EST

* AT 625 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS NEAR COUNTRY
WALK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STROM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...
MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING IMMEDIATELY. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS
AND ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

Hail Reports
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2335 75 MIAMI DADE FL 2576 8019 (MIA)
Wind Reports
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1844 60 PROGRESO HIDALGO TX 2609 9796 DOWNED POWER LINES REPORTED BY TEXAS DPS. (BRO)
2205 UNK DEERFIELD BEACH BROWARD FL 2631 8010 TREES DOWN (MIA)
0544 60 PROGRESO HIDALGO TX 2609 9796 DOWNED POWER LINES REPORTED BY TEXAS DPS. (BRO)

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 ENE BGS 40 SW CDS 55 W GAG 35 N GCK 40 SSE HLC 50 S RSL
25 WNW END 30 S SPS 35 WSW MWL 30 SSW ABI 50 E BGS 30 ENE BGS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CTY
20 ENE JAX ...CONT... 20 SSE EWN 45 NNE CAE 15 SSW AVL 10 WNW PSK
10 SSW WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW YUM BLH
40 WSW DRA 40 S BIH MER 15 NW SFO ...CONT... 65 ENE BLI 55 NW EAT
30 NW ALW 35 NW BOI 40 NW TWF 10 S PIH 25 ENE LVM 40 WSW P24
20 S EAU 40 W DBQ 55 NNE JLN 10 W FSM 20 WSW ELD 20 E PNS
...CONT... 30 SW PSX 45 NW LRD ...CONT... 85 SSE MRF 15 N BGS
25 E PVW 40 WNW GCK 45 E LIC 40 NE PUB 30 NNW TAD 35 SE RTN
70 SSW GDP.

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERGO CHANGES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. STRONG UPPER JET MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE WRN CONUS WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST. AT THE
SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS ERN CO WITH A DRYLINE
SITUATED SOUTH ALONG TX PANHANDLE/OK BORDER TO SWRN TX.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AT A PREMIUM ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER DISTURBANCE
OVER THE GULF OF MX AND WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SRN TX. THUS...
SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL PROBABLY NOT RISE ABOVE 55F ACROSS NWRN TX
NWD INTO CNTRL KS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN HEATING AND STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...AFTERNOON MLCAPES WILL RANGE FROM 1500-2000
J/KG ALONG THE DRYLINE.

MIDLEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM...NOW APPROACHING NRN BAJA/SRN CA...
EXTRAPOLATES INTO THE SRN ROCKIES WITH WEAKER DIFFLUENT FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. INCREASING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CINH
WITH TSTM INITIATION POTENTIAL OVER NWRN TX/SWRN OK BY LATE
AFTERNOON. OTHER TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SWRN KS AND SWD INTO
SWRN TX. TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KTS. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT TSTMS WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME ORGANIZING WITH MAINLY AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL THREAT GIVEN
RELATIVELY COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES. TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO CONGEAL
INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS DURING SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND MOVE
SLOWLY ESEWD INTO WRN OK AND ACROSS WRN/NCNTRL TX...BUT THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH.

...CNTRL/SRN FL...
AS THE MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE GULF OF MX TRANSLATES EWD
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...RIDGING AND MID TROPOSPHERIC WARMING WILL
LIKELY DECREASE PROBABILITIES OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
DOWNSTREAM OVER FL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. NONETHELESS...TSTMS
ARE APT TO DEVELOP ALONG SEABREEZES AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN
FL WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 SW PSX 25 W AUS ABI CSM DDC 50 N GCK 35 NE GLD 30 SE IML
35 SE LBF 30 NW GRI 20 SSW OLU LNK OJC SGF PBF 40 NNE HEZ
45 SW LUL 45 NNW PNS 20 SW DHN 10 WNW MGR 25 S SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW CRP HDO SJT
50 E BGS 50 SSW CDS PVW CVS LVS 25 W RTN COS DEN CYS CDR
30 SSE Y22 55 SE BIS FAR STC 50 SW LSE UIN CGI HOP TRI HSE.

...SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE ETA...THE ETA/GFS ARE
SIMILAR IN EVOLVING BROAD COLD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES INTO
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...AS 80-90 KT MID LEVEL JET
MAX ROTATES FROM THE BACKSIDE TO THE BASE OF TROUGH. DESPITE THE
MODEL SIMILARITIES WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...SURFACE PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO BECOME COMPLEX AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OCCLUDES
OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS
LIKELY...UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO EVOLUTION...TIMING AND LOCATION
EXISTS WITH THIS FORECAST.

...SRN PLAINS...
THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE LOCATED
AHEAD OF JET MAX ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NRN TX.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED...THOUGH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY MAY EXIST FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THIS LIFT WOULD
SHIFT EWD DURING THE DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACED BASED AND
MORE INTENSE STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN TX/SRN OK
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SYSTEM IN THE GULF WILL INHIBIT STRONG RETURN
OF GULF MOISTURE...BUT COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT/ -16C TO -18C AT
500 MB/ AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 60F SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPES FROM 1500-
2000 J/KG. THE MAIN THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL...THOUGH
SUPERCELLS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NRN TX/SERN OK
EWD INTO THE ARKLATEX WHERE THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER DIRECTIONAL
AND 0-1 KM SHEAR IS FORECAST.

...CENTRAL OK NWD INTO SRN NEB...
THOUGH THE MID/HIGH WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN...WITH THE UPPER
LOW REMAINING W-SW OF THE AREA...THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN S-SELY
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH THE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST EWD INTO FL...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN GULF IS FORECAST TO BE EJECTED EWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF STATES MONDAY AND THE FL PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT
WITH MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO 30-40 KT. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
RESULT IN STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SW...WHICH WILL SPREAD
HIGHER THETA-E AIR NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SBCAPES WILL RANGE FROM 2000-3000 J/KG...WITH THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. THIS INSTABILITY AND
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST THAT SEVERE STORMS...AND EVEN
SOME ROTATING STORMS...WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS.

VALID 181200-191200

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FROM THE ERN PORTIONS OF
THE SRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS/TN RIVER VALLEYS.

...SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS
THE TX PANHANDLE...90-100 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD FROM SRN TX INTO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE BROAD OCCLUDED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS IS RESULTING IN HIGHER UNCERTAINTY IN EVOLUTION AND
TIMING FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL PACKAGES INDICATE
THE DAY 3 ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THAN THE CURRENT DAY 1 AND DAY 2
PERIODS.

...LOWER MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS...
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN
ERN TX TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LOW/COLD FRONT EJECTING RAPIDLY
NEWD INTO ERN AR/MS TUESDAY NIGHT AS INTENSE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX AND DIFFLUENCE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TO 50-60 KT COMBINED WITH
VEERING WINDS RESULTS IN FORECASTS OF 0-3 KM SRH VALUES FROM 300-
500 M**2/S**2 AND 1 KM SRH VALUES FROM 150-300 M**2/S**2. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE GULF IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF FL AND
THIS WILL ALLOW RICHER GULF MOISTURE TO SURGE NWD ACROSS THE REGION
WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY REACHING THE UPPER 60S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
MLCAPES OF AT LEAST 1500-2000 J/KG AND GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR...
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY.
TORNADOES WOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...PLUS THE CLIMATOLOGY FOR NIGHTTIME/EARLY
MORNING TORNADOES ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING MARCH.

...NERN OK/SERN KS/SWRN MO...
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SELY AND MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT/ -18C TO -22C/ SHOULD RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

Hail Reports
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2335 75 MIAMI DADE FL 2576 8019 (MIA)
0120 100 10 N BIG LAKE REAGAN TX 3136 10146 HAIL RANGING FROM DIME TO QUARTER SIZED FELL IN NORTHERN REAGAN COUNTY. RPTD BY SHERIFFS OFFICE. (MAF)
0150 150 GARDEN CITY GLASSCOCK TX 3186 10150 HAIL RANGING FROM QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZED FELL IN GARDEN CITY. RPTD BY SHERIFFS OFFICE (MAF)
0212 100 7 W BIG SPRING HOWARD TX 3224 10160 HAIL LARGER THAN QUARTER SIZED FELL 7 MILES WEST OF BIG SPRING. RPTD BY SHERIFFS OFFICE. (MAF)
0225 75 10 NE MIDLAND MIDLAND TX 3211 10194 HAIL PEA TO DIME SIZE COVERING ROAD ON ROUTES 307 AND 137 ONE MILE FROM INTERSECTION. RPTD BY SHERIFFS OFFICE. (MAF)
0225 75 STANTON MARTIN TX 3213 10180 DIME SIZE HAIL FELL IN STANTON. RPTD BY SHERIFFS OFFICE. (MAF)
Wind Reports
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1844 60 PROGRESO HIDALGO TX 2609 9796 DOWNED POWER LINES REPORTED BY TEXAS DPS. (BRO)
2205 UNK DEERFIELD BEACH BROWARD FL 2631 8010 TREES DOWN (MIA)
0544 60 PROGRESO HIDALGO TX 2609 9796 DOWNED POWER LINES REPORTED BY TEXAS DPS. (BRO)

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0256
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CST SUN MAR 16 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/SCNTRL UT

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 161707Z - 162300Z

EXPECT AREAS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES THRU THE LATER
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. RATES MAINLY WILL BE AROUND
1/HR...BUT SOME ISOLATED 2 IN/HR RATES COULD OCCUR.

WV/IR IMAGERY REVEAL A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
LOBE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DESERTS OF ERN CA INTO COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY REGION AS STRONG 250MB JET TRANSLATES OVERHEAD. RECENT
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT FROM LAKE MOJAVE
REGION NEWD INTO THE SCNTRL UT MTNS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM THE LOW-MID 30S. EXPECT HEAVIER SNOWFALL
RATES TO SPREAD NNEWD THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS UVM INCREASES
DUE TO BOTH EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY AND FAVORABLE LFQ OF
250 MB JET STREAK OVER THE REGION. PREFER A BLEND OF 15Z RUC/12Z
ETA WITH THE HEAVIEST RATES SPREADING NNEWD INTO SWRN UT BY
18-21Z...THEN INTO SCNTRL UT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC011-099-161945-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
140 PM EST SUN MAR 16 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA

* UNTIL 245 PM EST

* AT 140 PM EST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH DIME SIZE HAIL OVER SUNRISE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE STORM THROUGH 245 PM EST...
MARGATE AND CORAL SPRINGS AND NORTH LAUDERDALE
CORAL SPRINGS AND COCONUT CREEK
PARKLAND AND LIGHTHOUSE POINT
DEERFIELD BEACH
BOCA WEST AND FAU SOUTH CAMPUS

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NCC107-162100-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 PM EST SUN MAR 16 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT
HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LENOIR COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 400 PM EST

* AT 300 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER PINK HILL...OR ABOUT 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BEULAVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. DIME SIZED HAIL AND WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
JONESTOWN AROUND 305 PM EST
DEEP RUN AROUND 310 PM EST
MOSS HILL AROUND 320 PM EST
KINSTON AROUND 335 PM EST
DAWSON AROUND 345 PM EST

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE UNTIL IT PASSES.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
337 PM EST SUN MAR 16 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT
HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
PITT COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 415 PM EST

* AT 337 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER FARMVILLE...OR ABOUT 10 MILES NORTH OF
SNOW HILL...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. DIME SIZED HAIL IS LIKELY WITH
THIS STORM.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
FARMVILLE...AND FOUNTAIN AROUND 400 PM EST

[Rob-TheStormChaser]