Texas Spring 2022

[Ntxw]

Well, that's it. At least we got something this winter, but would have liked a bigger snow. On to spring, which will feature virtually no rain or severe weather and the start of megadrought and early summer.

It's about time we had an early summer, last 2 years pools didn't warm up enough to swim until after Memorial Day, really early June. We've had a few years of longer cold/winters. Why the no severe weather though?

There are a lot at play to create severe weather, and one of those things is rain. So a less wet pattern means odds of running it decreases by volume. It doesn't mean a particular event can't deliver, just reduced.

[Ralph's Weather]

Big dud, drought wins again as it usually does. Big freeze coming tonight, I'm sure there will be some teens in N and NE TX.

[rwfromkansas]

Well, that's it. At least we got something this winter, but would have liked a bigger snow. On to spring, which will feature virtually no rain or severe weather and the start of megadrought and early summer.

It's about time we had an early summer, last 2 years pools didn't warm up enough to swim until after Memorial Day, really early June. We've had a few years of longer cold/winters. Why the no severe weather though?

Well, I exaggerate on the no severe weather. We will or better have some. lol.

I guess my thinking is we need rain for that, so it’s tied together, but you can be rainy without severe weather or have mostly severe weather that’s quick lines with little rain.

[Iceresistance]

Spring 2011 is a really good example of a really nasty La Nina Spring Storm Season, especially the April 2011 tornadoes & the El Reno EF-5.

[Quixotic]

Spring 2011 is a really good example of a really nasty La Nina Spring Storm Season, especially the April 2011 tornadoes & the El Reno EF-5.

Can we do without the hyperbole? Every winter event has been "February 2021" since. Yeah, 2011 is on the table because of the nina and lack of rainfall but c'mon.

[captainbarbossa19]

Spring 2011 is a really good example of a really nasty La Nina Spring Storm Season, especially the April 2011 tornadoes & the El Reno EF-5.

Can we do without the hyperbole? Every winter event has been "February 2021" since. Yeah, 2011 is on the table because of the nina and lack of rainfall but c'mon.

2011 is almost becoming a cliché on this forum. Anytime we have La Niña and moderate to severe drought going on, this board chants 2011 like it's a normality. Texas does have drought often, but not extreme like 2011. Droughts like then are far more unusual.

[Iceresistance]

Spring 2011 is a really good example of a really nasty La Nina Spring Storm Season, especially the April 2011 tornadoes & the El Reno EF-5.

Can we do without the hyperbole? Every winter event has been "February 2021" since. Yeah, 2011 is on the table because of the nina and lack of rainfall but c'mon.

2011 is almost becoming a cliché on this forum. Anytime we have La Niña and moderate to severe drought going on, this board chants 2011 like it's a normality. Texas does have drought often, but not extreme like 2011. Droughts like then are far more unusual.

Also forgot April 2012 as a extremely bad storm month, especially what happened in Woodward, OK

Let's get back on topic for this, there's still snow flying in Northern Texas along the Red River

[Ralph's Weather]

Band of light snow dropping down along Red River. Areas along and north of I-30 may get a dusting. Watching to see if this develops anymore or if it can drop south much more.

[jasons2k]

We had a 70% chance of rain today and I just had some sprinkles. The wind is pretty brutal. Almost all the trees are budding here so hopefully they will be OK in the freeze expected tonight. I brought my potted citrus into the garage for hopefully the last time this season.

[wxman57]

We had a 70% chance of rain today and I just had some sprinkles. The wind is pretty brutal. Almost all the trees are budding here so hopefully they will be OK in the freeze expected tonight. I brought my potted citrus into the garage for hopefully the last time this season.

If there was a 70% chance of rain and you had sprinkles, then the 70% was correct. A high percentage chance of rain does not equate to any particular rainfall amount.

[jasons2k]

We had a 70% chance of rain today and I just had some sprinkles. The wind is pretty brutal. Almost all the trees are budding here so hopefully they will be OK in the freeze expected tonight. I brought my potted citrus into the garage for hopefully the last time this season.

If there was a 70% chance of rain and you had sprinkles, then the 70% was correct. A high percentage chance of rain does not equate to any particular rainfall amount.

Right, but the forecast called for totals of .10-.50" of rain with "heavier amounts in thunderstorms" between overnight and today. I had a trace. It was pretty much a bust for what we got.

[CaptinCrunch]

Unfortunately most people think a 80% chance of rain equates to 1.0" of rain. I do understand the ideological of it seeing a 60%-80% chance or rain only to get a few sprinkles and call that accurate pretty much sucks.

[TheProfessor]

We had a 70% chance of rain today and I just had some sprinkles. The wind is pretty brutal. Almost all the trees are budding here so hopefully they will be OK in the freeze expected tonight. I brought my potted citrus into the garage for hopefully the last time this season.

If there was a 70% chance of rain and you had sprinkles, then the 70% was correct. A high percentage chance of rain does not equate to any particular rainfall amount.

Well it does, but it's only 0.01. So if 1 hundredth was recorded, then in that regard it's a good forecast. If they were forecasting more then that in graphics and such, then yeah, that would be a bust.

[TheProfessor]

Unfortunately most people think a 80% chance of rain equates to 1.0" of rain. I do understand the ideological of it seeing a 60%-80% chance or rain only to get a few sprinkles and call that accurate pretty much sucks.

It's difficult because the same amount of rain in one location can have completely different impacts in another. Let's say we only gave a percentage for 0.5" of QPF or higher. Well to someone in Florida that's nothing, but someone in Arizona probably needs to know if they're going to get 0.25" as that can be enough to ruin a day if it falls fast enough. Setting the minimum at 0.01 and then discussing the forecasted amounts in AFDs and graphics is the best way solve both issues. The problem is that you have to judge the forecast that the meteorologist put out in their discussions and graphics and not just the percentage for your location.

[Ntxw]

Made it down to 24F. Time changes tonight, more daylight as the days continue to get longer .

[Ralph's Weather]

Made it down to 24F. Time changes tonight, more daylight as the days continue to get longer .

Made it to around 23 here. Temps across East Texas ranged from 18 in ideal radiation spots to 32 on south shores of the big lakes.

[Quixotic]

After the winter weather drought from 2015 - 2021, I am not going to complain at all about this winter. We had stuff to track three times and got an accumulating event. That's more than we saw for those 6 years. This was a good if not great winter.

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro gets Spring going with a bang.

[Haris]

12z Euro gets Spring going with a bang.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2022031212/240/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

Yeah showing up on GFs too. My rule of thumb is to cut everything in half given the feedback loop. But I’m intrigued

[Texas Snowman]

Made it down to 24F. Time changes tonight, more daylight as the days continue to get longer .

Made it to around 23 here. Temps across East Texas ranged from 18 in ideal radiation spots to 32 on south shores of the big lakes.

Yesterday, we got a little freezing rain and some icicles, a slight dusting of sleet, and about 20 minutes of decent snow.

Disappointing, yet again. I’m very jealous of the snow that Iceresistance and Brent have gotten this winter.

Did get down to 21 degrees this morning at North Texas Regional Airport west of Denison.