Texas Spring 2022

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cstrunk
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#261 Postby cstrunk » Fri Mar 11, 2022 8:49 am

Ralph's Weather wrote:
cstrunk wrote:Very surprised that NWS SHV posted a WWA for me in Longview tomorrow evening. The high for tomorrow is 59F lol.

They finally added Smith and also upped totals a bit. Still a very minor event but most along and north of I-20 will get a short burst of decently heavy snow before precip ends. 30s have made it into northwestern probs of East Texas with 40s for the rest of East Texas. Temps will fall through the day. Main area of precip is still in the TX Panhandle and Oklahoma with drizzle across much of Texas. For the Tyler area expect rain to start around lunch with sleet mixing in more and more as afternoon progress. Transitioning to a band of snow around dinner time.


Like has been the case all winter long in Longview, we are right on the edge. While I don't disagree that we might see some snowflakes later tonight, I just don't really see the reason for the WWA for Gregg County. Most models don't show Longview reaching 32F until midnight or later (GFS does look like maybe 9-10 pm), so it's not like if snow is falling before then it's going to stick to anything anyways. Maybe I'm just being nitpicky but you know everyone is going to say "I thought it was supposed to snow a lot, and we barely even got a dusting." I'm also about tired of being on this line all winter - either give me cold and snow, or give me nice weather. Quit giving me 34F and cold rain. :lol:

The high for today has been lowered to 54F.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#262 Postby EnnisTx » Fri Mar 11, 2022 8:54 am

Noticed a few lightning strikes with the stuff moving into the Metroplex.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#263 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Mar 11, 2022 9:06 am

Every Time I could get Dry Slotted, this happens. :lol:

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https://s7.gifyu.com/images/KTLX_loop.gif
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#264 Postby Haris » Fri Mar 11, 2022 9:06 am

Looks like an overachiever for Oklahoma so far
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#265 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Mar 11, 2022 9:18 am

cstrunk wrote:Like has been the case all winter long in Longview, we are right on the edge. While I don't disagree that we might see some snowflakes later tonight, I just don't really see the reason for the WWA for Gregg County. Most models don't show Longview reaching 32F until midnight or later (GFS does look like maybe 9-10 pm), so it's not like if snow is falling before then it's going to stick to anything anyways. Maybe I'm just being nitpicky but you know everyone is going to say "I thought it was supposed to snow a lot, and we barely even got a dusting." I'm also about tired of being on this line all winter - either give me cold and snow, or give me nice weather. Quit giving me 34F and cold rain. :lol:

The high for today has been lowered to 54F.

I understand your point, both Smith and Gregg are very borderline. For both only issues will be if the final heavy band extends down this far south and if it does it will cause roads to become a now covered even with temps around 34. We will have to watch temp trends to see if freeze line progresses faster which could cause some of the afternoon stuff to stick to bridges, but that's unlikely this far southeast, too much sun angle in mid March I think.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#266 Postby Ntxw » Fri Mar 11, 2022 9:34 am

Too warm above and surface is not cold enough either at least in DFW. Maybe some mixing to catch the eye but not overly impressed. It's been a frustrating winter regarding precip types and timing. Lots of near misses for snow.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#267 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Mar 11, 2022 9:37 am

Ntxw wrote:Too warm above and surface is not cold enough either at least in DFW. Maybe some mixing to catch the eye but not overly impressed. It's been a frustrating winter regarding precip types and timing. Lots of near misses for snow.

Yeah, a cold rain shower currently. The temp hasn't dropped much since I woke up.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#268 Postby DallasAg » Fri Mar 11, 2022 9:57 am

gpsnowman wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Too warm above and surface is not cold enough either at least in DFW. Maybe some mixing to catch the eye but not overly impressed. It's been a frustrating winter regarding precip types and timing. Lots of near misses for snow.

Yeah, a cold rain shower currently. The temp hasn't dropped much since I woke up.

A (very) few ice pellets coming down with the shower in North Dallas right now. Much ado about nothing really. This is the type of cold, rainy day better suited for mid-November than early March.

But I will absolutely take the rain, even if it's nothing more than a few hundreths.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#269 Postby Cerlin » Fri Mar 11, 2022 10:02 am

Classes got moved online and we’ve got about a half inch of snow at least. Snow is nice and wet and the flakes falling earlier were some of the best of the season!
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#270 Postby Haris » Fri Mar 11, 2022 10:04 am

Well transition isn’t supposed to happen until noon so be patient for now. But agreed warm nose is hell
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#271 Postby orangeblood » Fri Mar 11, 2022 10:08 am

Ntxw wrote:Too warm above and surface is not cold enough either at least in DFW. Maybe some mixing to catch the eye but not overly impressed. It's been a frustrating winter regarding precip types and timing. Lots of near misses for snow.


925mb temps now below 0C, cooling rapidly and 850mb 0C line moving east, may get decent sleet with this final batch moving through mid-day
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#272 Postby Edwards Limestone » Fri Mar 11, 2022 10:17 am

Getting a decently heavy 40 dBZ rainshower on the north side of SA (near 1604/281). I'll take it!
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#273 Postby Brent » Fri Mar 11, 2022 10:31 am

:cold: :double: it is really coming down out there :froze: airport already reporting 2.4 inches

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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#274 Postby TropicalTundra » Fri Mar 11, 2022 11:07 am

OKC and Tulsa look to be getting overperforming snow which is super awesome for them. Unfortunately still sitting right above freezing in Temple but seeing some storms move in from the SW. These next few hours will be interesting so I’ll keep my eye outside since this is possibly the last winter weather my eyeballs will see until next season :lol:
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#275 Postby Haris » Fri Mar 11, 2022 11:22 am

Petition to remove Mexico to our SW. seriously what the f is up with our state. Everything falling apart. And models always over-initialize
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#276 Postby Cerlin » Fri Mar 11, 2022 11:27 am

Yeah I definitely underestimated snow totals. We’ve gotten at least an inch in all places here in Norman with some places having up to 2, especially elevated surfaces. Extremely wet snow, surprisingly, which makes sense given PWAT values are around .56 which is much higher than estimated. The entire column is way more saturated and cooler than modeled, hence why it’s been all snow. Gives me hope for y’all in Texas that with some temperature changes, there can be some wintry weather.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#277 Postby txtwister78 » Fri Mar 11, 2022 11:40 am

This was never going to be a "storm" or even a "decent" sleet or snow event for most of TX with that trough orientation coupled with a negative PDO under a persistent pattern influenced by La Nina. Too many negative factors for much of anything today. Heck even model reliability (precip wise) 3-4 days out under this pattern are pointless imo. HRRR overall for TX probably the best as it never wavered much (Oklahoma it flip flopped a bit across central areas).

Enjoy the cold though while it last...biggest story of the day (looking at the calendar) especially when you factor in those wind chills.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#278 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Mar 11, 2022 12:08 pm

txtwister78 wrote:This was never going to be a "storm" or even a "decent" sleet or snow event for most of TX with that trough orientation coupled with a negative PDO under a persistent pattern influenced by La Nina. Too many negative factors for much of anything today. Heck even model reliability (precip wise) 3-4 days out under this pattern are pointless imo. HRRR overall for TX probably the best as it never wavered much (Oklahoma it flip flopped a bit across central areas).

Enjoy the cold though while it last...biggest story of the day (looking at the calendar) especially when you factor in those wind chills.


HRRR is too warm ahead of the precip in East Texas, by 3 to 5 degrees. It is also underdoing the precip across N TX.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#279 Postby TropicalTundra » Fri Mar 11, 2022 12:18 pm

Any chance that long snow band NW of Abilene move south? Or will it dry out.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#280 Postby Ntxw » Fri Mar 11, 2022 12:27 pm

TropicalTundra wrote:Any chance that long snow band NW of Abilene move south? Or will it dry out.


Likely dries out. Better lift comes East of I-35 this afternoon.
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