Texas Fall-2015

[Brent]

Great writeup about el nino winters from FWD today:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=enso-faq

Part that caught my attention:

The only winters since 1950 with greater than 10 inches of snowfall for the season in Dallas/Fort Worth were all El Niño winters, including the near-record snowy winter of 2009-2010. But there have also been El Niño winters without measurable snowfall in the Metroplex, including the strong El Niño of 1991-1992.

and this:

Among the previous El Niño winters are 6 that can be classified as strong. In climatology, we call these analogs. While this year may have some similarities to these previous events, there are often enough differences that limit their utility as predictors.

Only 2 of these 6 were extraordinarily wet (1991-92 and 1997-98), but neither of those had much winter weather. Two others, which were closer to normal precipitation overall (1965-66 and 1972-73), had numerous winter weather events and well above normal snowfall for the season. Needless to say, there is more to our winter weather than just El Niño.

[weatherdude1108]

Great writeup about el nino winters from FWD today:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=enso-faq

Part that caught my attention:

The only winters since 1950 with greater than 10 inches of snowfall for the season in Dallas/Fort Worth were all El Niño winters, including the near-record snowy winter of 2009-2010. But there have also been El Niño winters without measurable snowfall in the Metroplex, including the strong El Niño of 1991-1992.

and this:

Among the previous El Niño winters are 6 that can be classified as strong. In climatology, we call these analogs. While this year may have some similarities to these previous events, there are often enough differences that limit their utility as predictors.

Only 2 of these 6 were extraordinarily wet (1991-92 and 1997-98), but neither of those had much winter weather. Two others, which were closer to normal precipitation overall (1965-66 and 1972-73), had numerous winter weather events and well above normal snowfall for the season. Needless to say, there is more to our winter weather than just El Niño.

This caught my attention:

Will drought conditions ease?

The lack of significant rainfall in July and August allowed drought conditions to return to the region. A typical fall rainy season would ease these drought conditions. A wetter-than-normal autumn, which is expected, could end this flash drought, and a continuation of enhanced precipitation totals during the upcoming winter and into the spring of 2016 would likely prevent the drought from returning.

[dhweather]

From the FWD AFD:

WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT EASTERLY BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THE FRONT
ITSELF WILL LIKELY WASH OUT MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. RIDGING ALOFT
WILL THEN DEVELOP OVERHEAD...PROVIDING WARM DAYS AND PLEASANT
NIGHTS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

Never doubt the RIDGE OF DEATH!

[Ntxw]

I made a post about this in the winter thread. El Nino increases the odds of precip, the other part is EPO. The difference between the 60s/70s/80s Nino's and 90s is that the 90s featured +EPO. Wet but no cold air.

[weatherdude1108]

From the FWD AFD:

WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT EASTERLY BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THE FRONT
ITSELF WILL LIKELY WASH OUT MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. RIDGING ALOFT
WILL THEN DEVELOP OVERHEAD...PROVIDING WARM DAYS AND PLEASANT
NIGHTS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

Never doubt the RIDGE OF DEATH!

No kidding.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
255 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED OVER THE EAST WITH WINDS ACROSS OUR CWA FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT DURING
THIS PERIOD. ONGOING CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING
TODAY...BUT SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THE
RIDGE WILL BECOME STRONGER TOMORROW AND END ANY RAIN CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE A FEW DEGREES TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG AND FORCE THE WEST COAST
TROUGH TO THE NORTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE...BUT IT WILL KEEP ANY
CONVECTION SUPPRESSED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE
DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND TURN THE FLOW
TO THE NORTHWEST OVER EAST TEXAS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE FARTHER EAST THAN OUR CWA AND WE WILL
REMAIN DRY. THE SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE PATTERN WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES MAINLY STEADY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

[Brent]

From the FWD AFD:

WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT EASTERLY BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THE FRONT
ITSELF WILL LIKELY WASH OUT MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. RIDGING ALOFT
WILL THEN DEVELOP OVERHEAD...PROVIDING WARM DAYS AND PLEASANT
NIGHTS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

Never doubt the RIDGE OF DEATH!

Least maybe the humidity will be lower.. and it's highly unlikely to hit 100's this late.

So ready to throw this boring pattern in the trash.

[dhweather]

It's been a deep south Summer in the metroplex, high humidity and high temps. The only difference being MS/AL got rain this Summer, we did not.

[Tireman4]

I don't see any signs of a significant cold front across SE TX in the 12Z GFS through September.

Is that both the Euro and GFS?

[Ntxw]

For fun both the CFSv2 and Euro weeklies show what is a deep cut off low (bowling ball) fed by something out of the east Pacific to begin October as September ends. Will that be a sign of winter to come? Higher heights over top as the southern branch loads systems.

Without a doubt will be. Loaded with cool pacific air. I was looking at old analogs just last night of the '97 nino. Lots of bowling balls. Will we get some arctic air this year though possibly since the water is warmer off the NW coast?

That's a good question the ECMWF, Ukmet, and Jamstec are betting on. CFSv2 pushes the cold pool even further east from the Nino, thus milder. The warm waters will retreat to a strip off the coast of NW North America thus the -EPO remains as ridging stays over the NW continent and Alaska.

The El Nino will be the bully this winter, the NE Pac warm pool and the Nino cannot live together in peace. The science of it is the warm pool is a feedback loop until something bigger than it shifts the background state...El Nino is a powerful background state that forces cooler waters from the North-Central Pacific eastward. If it overwhelms the warm pool and colder waters migrate all the way to Western Canada then ridging will be forced further east to eastern Canada and we are flooded with milder Pacific air, though it will be wet. If the forcing from the Nino is further west into the Aleutians then ridging will be in western and central Canada thus rex block pattern often seen for cold and snow like 1963/64, 1965/66, 2009/10. Odds for this are greater if Nino 3.4 is warmer than Nino 3 and Nino 1+2. This makes sense because tropical forcing (large volumes of thunderstorms) will be centered in the central Pacific thus it won't fight the warm pool as much vs if it were in the eastern Pacific.

Lots of NE Pacific watching the next few months!

[Brent]

Weatherbug still has temps dropping to the 80s/60s next week for Dallas... for Houston it takes until late next week(aka over a week out) to do that.

But it has trended a couple degrees warmer...

[weatherdude1108]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 171128
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
628 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2015

LATE NEXT WEEK...THE LATEST GFS/ECM RUNS DEVELOP A CUT-OFF LOW
OVER THE EASTERN GULF STATES AND RETROGRADE IT WESTWARD. THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WEST OF THIS PATTERN OVER TX SHOULD CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE WARM DAYS AND PLEASANT NIGHTS. RUN-TO-RUN TRENDS OF
BOTH MODELS FAVOR THE MORE AGGRESSIVE WESTWARD SHIFT BY THE 00Z
ECM RUN WHICH MOVES THE UPPER LOW AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO
TX NEXT WEEKEND.

[wxman57]

No sign of more fall weather through early October in both the GFS & EC. Here's a meteogram for Houston based on the 6Z GFS:

[dhweather]

No sign of more fall weather through early October in both the GFS & EC. Here's a meteogram for Houston based on the 6Z GFS:

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfs6z17sep.gif

Approximate score in Heath:

July: RIDGE OF DEATH 31 days
Non-ridge of death - 0 days

August: RIDOGE OF DEATH 26 days
Non-ridge of death - 5 days

September: Ridge of Death 12 days
Non-ridge of death - 5 days

Ridge of Death up 69 days to 10

Non ROD days either had rainfall or heat index 95 or higher



I need to come up with a metric for this.

Anyway, I believe that the Ridge will win the next 10-14 days handily, outside shot that we may get a little rain, but not counting on it.

[TarrantWx]

How much longer can this pattern last realistically? Especially with a strong El Nino in place. I would assume that this would be rather anomalous. I'm like Brent, I'm ready to throw this boring pattern in the trash and follow some interesting weather again.

[weatherdude1108]

AMEN!!!

I am (BEYOND) OVER and DONE with boring, hot, rainless weather.


It should now be....

[gboudx]

I remember reading back in August that strong El Ninos can mean an early Fall. Looks like this one means a late Summer.

[DonWrk]

Anyone betting on below normal precip this fall/winter? Any real chance that could possibly happen?

[TarrantWx]

Anyone betting on below normal precip this fall/winter? Any real chance that could possibly happen?

I'm not giving up hope on above average precip yet. As ntxw pointed out, October is when the wetter than normal conditions should take hold. If we DO get below normal precip, it better be because all precipitation events are falling in a frozen form

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose's video blog. He is confident October will transition to wet and cooler.

https://youtu.be/j7h4EK2CyvI

[CaptinCrunch]

Right now El Nino is in a Moderate state and is not likely to reach a Strong state till late into October if it even does. What NTXW said is correct about the ridging, and that's the wildcard for our winter. Either the ridge builds east and we get a milder/much wetter winter than what some or forecasting now, or the ridging is to our west and we get the colder/some what wetter winter.

Right now we are stuck in this warm pattern and may stay here till something major happens in our weather pattern, like a we had last year in November with a strong Low moving through the Aleutians into the Bering strait or till El Nino hit's that Strong category and we find out where the ridging is going to play.

By mid October sunset will be round 6:50 and thus cooler temps will prevail, we just may have to endure another 25 days of Summer like temps.