Texas Fall 2013

[JDawg512]

Kvue reports word of evacuations in Sunset Valley/SW Austin area bullseyed with doppler est of 13in of rain. Be safe folks!

This is basically where the Portastorm Weather Center is located ... very close to where some of those evacuations took place. We've had about 11 1/4 inches of rain here in the last 12 hours. An absolutely amazing weather event which even surpasses the 8-inch event with TS Hermine back in 2010. Basically convection blossomed and literally didn't move much at all for most of the night.

I took a quick drive around the neighborhood this morning and see retention ponds nearly at full and dry creek beds turned into raging torrents of water.

What a night of weather. Wow!

I'm just on the other side of Sunset Valley from you. That neighborhood south of the HS football stadium was evacuated as well as several homes east right into my neighborhood. All together I've picked up 10.18 inches here. We really do not need any more rainfall but with the complexes west and southwest moving our way we will definitely be getting more rain.I will remember this as the worst flood event locally and personally for me ever, by far worse than any before that I can remember and I was born and raised here in this very neighborhood. I've head my family mention the 81 flood and another event that dumped 17 inches of rain but I was too young to remember.

[weatherdude1108]

I'm so sorry for the flooding you are dealing with JDawg512. I don't need more right now either.

What would be ideal is if we can channel this moisture to the west and northwest and southwest where the runoff would be more welcome and beneficial (Lakes Travis, Buchanan, and ESPECIALLY Medina).

[TeamPlayersBlue]

It looks like the system in the EPAC is going to swing around the ridge and head towards the west texas region within the next couple days too

[Texas Snowman]

Harold Taft always said that in Texas, the last drought always ends with the next flood.

Wonder how Central and South Texas lakes will respond?

[Portastorm]

Harold Taft always said that in Texas, the last drought always ends with the next flood.

Wonder how Central and South Texas lakes will respond?

Lake Travis has risen several feet I believe. This weekend's event namely impacted areas along and east of I-35 so it should have minimal impact on the Highland Lakes. However, today we're supposed to see heavy rains in the western Hill Country. If that occurs ... that should be good for the lakes. We shall see.

Thinking more about this weekend's event ... I've lived in Austin for 29 1/2 years and I could probably count on one hand the number of times I have seen it rain like it did Saturday night-Sunday morning. It was really an extraordinary experience. I told my wife that, to me, it sounded like we were in a nonstop car wash for hours as the rain beat down on the house. There was a fair amount of damage in my neighborhood, mostly topsoil and rocks into the roads as washout occurred. The school near our house had its gymnasium flooded. And it appears we may do it again tomorrow. Whoo boy.

[weatherdude1108]

Looks like Travis has risen 2 feet since this began. Buchanan 0.1 feet. They expect Travis to rise another 0.5-1.0 foot over the next (with the rain that has already fallen). This does not take into account additional rains that may occur later. Bring it!! Check out the LCRA River Report link:

http://hydromet.lcra.org/riverreport/report.aspx

[dhweather]

Yeah yeah, I hear y'all. We're at a grand total of 0.10 in Heath, and I doubt we get much more than that.

[gboudx]

^ 1" here just north of you. I bet most of it came before the rain this afternoon.

[northtxboy]

Got close to 3 inches here in windom since last night. Rain has stopped for now but more on the way in the morning. I feel bad for my south texas friends but you guys sure did need the rain down there just not over 10 inches in 12 hours thats insane!!! ! have never been threw flooding before. i have been threw 1 hurricane (sandy) 2 tornados, 3 blizzards 2 ice storms baseball and golf ball size hail but never seen real flooding. maybe its cause i live in the middle of nowhere i dont know. Well time to sip on some shine and play with the 4 wheel drive in the pasture!!! I love being a country boy!!!

[Ntxw]

This is fantasy GFS. But as I've been mentioning, the signals say YES! Something like this may occur in the next 2 weeks. First frost and freeze (outside the urban areas) threat is still on par sometime end of October.

[DonWrk]

Can someone explain why the HRRR hasn't been up in the past few days?

[gboudx]

Try the HRRR-dev1

[dhweather]

^ 1" here just north of you. I bet most of it came before the rain this afternoon.

We got some of that, ended up at .60 for the day. Maybe we can get 1-1.5 tomorrow

[Portastorm]

I'm very concerned about a potential flash flooding event in parts of south central Texas later today/tonight. We have all the ingredients for a classic, fall Texas flash flood situation:

1) Slow moving front
2) Strong Gulf inflow
3) Pacific tropical system moving into state
4) Saturated ground in certain places

[Portastorm]

I should also add that I don't have time at the moment to say much about the longer range but suggest you all closely look at the Canadian and Euro at the 7-10 day period. It appears that a very strong and unseasonably cold front will blow south into Texas, making wxman57 and his legion of heat misers miserable!

[dhweather]

I should also add that I don't have time at the moment to say much about the longer range but suggest you all closely look at the Canadian and Euro at the 7-10 day period. It appears that a very strong and unseasonably cold front will blow south into Texas, making wxman57 and his legion of heat misers miserable!

Yeah, but it appeared we'd get 4-5 inches of widespread rain by yesterday according to King Euro. Not even close.

[dhweather]

FWIW - The Euro has the freezing line (for low temps) getting to the KS/OK border by the 25th.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The models have been consistent on something coming down thats for sure

[wxman57]

Euro has low temps in the mid 50s Houston area on the 25th. Upper 40s Dallas area. 1026MB high over OK the 24th/25th. Nothing too extreme.

00Z GFS was similar - low to mid 50s down to Houston the 24th/25th and around the 28th. Highs in the low to mid 70s.

[Ntxw]

Pfft euro isn't fully seeing it yet, still in summer mode. How about those mid and upper 30s on the late GFS wxman57? You have an enemy in the WPAC named Wipha. It's amplifying it for you (or against you) . 300+ GFS always nails it!