Texas Fall 2012

[TeamPlayersBlue]

From my amateur eye, @132 hr it looks to be even more aggressive with the storm. Bring Dallas peeps into the fun.

[Portastorm]

I think Lucy is teeing up the football on you guys!

Take it from me, you best watch your backsides.

[Tireman4]

I think Lucy is teeing up the football on you guys!

Take it from me, you best watch your backsides.

What if they are replacement refs?

[Ntxw]

Don't shoot the messenger, but the crazy canadian has shared some joint with the JMA. Looks like the split storm idea continues to play out as some impressive blizzard warnings are present in the northern plains with the low responsible for bringing down cold air first.



Side note: RIP to our beloved coach Royal.

Edit: iorange mentioned this as well, Euro has been showing a system after this one and now all the other models are picking up on it too with a further southern track than the coming one.

[Shoshana]

Oh my.

I'm not sure what there's going to be to chase, but I'm feeling a chase... it might end up being just a fall foliage chase, lol.

And aside, have you guys noticed the leaves changing earlier than normal this year? If my memory's right, they usually change closer to Thanksgiving... my neighborhood's erupted in color this past week.

I was just wondering about that today - trees along the dry creek out back are turning. From what I remember they usually go from green, to flash frozen and swept off the trees in the first blue norther.... I think the drought is affecting them. I think they are mulberries and hackberries.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Don't shoot the messenger, but the crazy canadian has shared some joint with the JMA. Looks like the split storm idea continues to play out as some impressive blizzard warnings are present in the northern plains with the low responsible for bringing down cold air first.

http://i49.tinypic.com/54dik7.gif

Side note: RIP to our beloved coach Royal.

Edit: iorange mentioned this as well, Euro has been showing a system after this one and now all the other models are picking up on it too with a further southern track than the coming one.

Edmonton, Alberta is getting buried under a dump that they haven't had in years as is a lot of the North. It's heading our way tomorrow.

Edmontonians are currently on the news crying the blues. I'm positive they'd gladly send it ALL to you folks! BE EVER SO CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR!

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose thinks that after a "tranquil" period so far this Fall in Texas, things will become more "unsettled" and cooler as we move into the month of November (video blog).

http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/we ... olumn.html

[Portastorm]

Bob Rose thinks that after a "tranquil" period so far this Fall in Texas, things will become more "unsettled" and cooler as we move into the month of November (video blog).

http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/we ... olumn.html

Both medium-range models (GFS and Euro) this morning support this scenario. We basically have several bowling ball lows which will roll west to east across the Southern Plains over the next 6-10 days. Hopefully there will be enough return flow between events to saturate the atmosphere and give us some rain.

[Ntxw]

The STJ has been quiet. Much of our weather has come from NW North America (-EPO) which is good for cold in the winter months but a lot of it is dry cold. I hope this is not a precursor for the months ahead but a little thing to keep thought of. Despite the warm spells, we haven't seen a strong Pacific jet flooding NA with warm air and storms like last year (may have been good for rain thinking in retrospect).

Models have come into agreement on the next system being an open trough with a quick shot of cold air (like the one Halloween week). I don't think it will come at the right angle for a huge severe weather outbreak but locally is certainly possible.

[weatherguy425]

Fortunately, models... especially the CMC and ECMWF want to take the following system (Nov. 15-17) on a more southerly track and perhaps the quick shot nature of the cold air associated with this first system will allow for a decent return flow set-up prior to this system moving in?

[Terri]

The STJ has been quiet. Much of our weather has come from NW North America (-EPO) which is good for cold in the winter months but a lot of it is dry cold. I hope this is not a precursor for the months ahead but a little thing to keep thought of. Despite the warm spells, we haven't seen a strong Pacific jet flooding NA with warm air and storms like last year (may have been good for rain thinking in retrospect).

Models have come into agreement on the next system being an open trough with a quick shot of cold air (like the one Halloween week). I don't think it will come at the right angle for a huge severe weather outbreak but locally is certainly possible.

I need some rain, as i am sure many do. We have just about held off as long as we can. We will wait for the prospect of moisture with the coming front. If nothing happens, we irrigate.

[vbhoutex]

The STJ has been quiet. Much of our weather has come from NW North America (-EPO) which is good for cold in the winter months but a lot of it is dry cold. I hope this is not a precursor for the months ahead but a little thing to keep thought of. Despite the warm spells, we haven't seen a strong Pacific jet flooding NA with warm air and storms like last year (may have been good for rain thinking in retrospect).

Models have come into agreement on the next system being an open trough with a quick shot of cold air (like the one Halloween week). I don't think it will come at the right angle for a huge severe weather outbreak but locally is certainly possible.

The STJ is what normally gives us a lot of our moisture, especially during El Nino episodes. What I am starting to be concerned about is the fact there is no El Nino and now I am seeing signs it is not going to be a very "moist" or is starting out that way. And more than likely it will not be as cold as originally thought or wished at least here in SE TX. This could also be the case with the rest of Texas imo.

[Ntxw]

The STJ is what normally gives us a lot of our moisture, especially during El Nino episodes. What I am starting to be concerned about is the fact there is no El Nino and now I am seeing signs it is not going to be a very "moist" or is starting out that way. And more than likely it will not be as cold as originally thought or wished at least here in SE TX. This could also be the case with the rest of Texas imo.

Note on Precipitation: I made mention about this in the tropic's thread to weatherdude before, during cold PDO El Nino's, the average precip in winter is usually not that much above normal. 2009-2010 (in 2010 if not for Hermine, most of Texas would be pretty dry despite the moderate El Nino lingering effects) both averaged near or below for most of the Texas cities as was in the late 70s. The crazy rain is tagged with the warm PDO. But all Nino's in general are cloudier and more wet days in winter than other enso states, but in terms of rain gauge is nothing unusual like people think it is. So even if we had gotten the Nino going I'm not sure it would've done much for the long term drought and we should adjust our livelihoods to this as the cold PDO is here to stay for many more years to come.

A neutral idea would be equal chances both ways, as the hots are hotter and cold is colder is my guess which is kind of what we've seen so far this fall. I still believe the trend this fall has been cooler than normal when looking at the big picture so it will be nothing like last winter.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

http://www.examiner.com/article/weekend ... 11-09-2012


LC seems to think that El Nino is still on for this winter and is just getting started

[gpsnowman]

Ok, all this recent talk of the El Nino biting the dust is depressing me. Now an Enso nuetral is knocking at the door. I always read about Nino this or Nina that, but what does an Enso nuetral mean for us in Texas? Rain is the most important aspect in all of this but darn it I want cold and snow. Wait and see I know but we in Texas need some moisture and now. Sunday should be soggy and if you believe in Larry Cosgrove, which I do, more rain events are headed this way. I guess I live in the wrong part of the country for consistent cold and snow events to happen on a regular basis. Crap. No, no guessing, I do. But home is home and maybe a colder climate is in the future. My wonderful wife hates cold so a problem might occur with a move to a place with less heat and more rain and cold. The cold brings out the energy in me. I love it. Denver maybe? Oh , who knows. In the mean time bring on the winter in North Texas.

[Ntxw]

Don't fret gpsnowman! The signs are more good than bad, you will get your opportunities for cold and snow, PWC said so

[somethingfunny]

I was just thinking today about how the last time my lawn was covered in white, it was from a freakish four-inch-deep dump of a hailstorm last October. Wrecked my carport with all the heavy ice and strong thunderstorm gusts...

[weatherdude1108]

When did the naming of Winter storms start (i.e., "Winter Storm Brutus")?? There have been many strong Winter storms in the past that, I don't think, had names(?). Anyway.

That's a first for me.

[Ntxw]

When did the naming of Winter storms start (i.e., "Winter Storm Brutus")?? There have been many strong Winter storms in the past that, I don't think, had names(?). Anyway.

That's a first for me.

It is a gimmick used by the weather channel and affiliates. It is not recognized or endorsed by any other organization including the national weather service or NOAA private or public.

[weatherdude1108]

When did the naming of Winter storms start (i.e., "Winter Storm Brutus")?? There have been many strong Winter storms in the past that, I don't think, had names(?). Anyway.

That's a first for me.

It is a gimmick used by the weather channel and affiliates. It is not recognized or endorsed by any other organization including the national weather service or NOAA private or public.

Ahh, ok. It does seem silly to me.