Texas Fall-2015

[weatherdude1108]

Something off topic from Texas. I posted this in the ENSO thread, Los Angeles got 2 inches of rain today. The entire summer their average is less than half an inch. Earlier in the summer July was one of the wettest for many SoCal cities including LA and San Diego. This is the real deal El Nino, I mentioned earlier in the year it ended Texas and Oklahoma's multi-year drought and it can do the same in California if the cards fall right quickly.

Interesting!!

[JDawg512]

The model discrepancies are causing EWX to give a very vague forecast in their afternoon discussion with an overall low confidence for the long long range. This ridge may have looked worse originally but doesn't seem like it's going to be a problem for too long.

Given the history between the GFS and European in terms of comparison and accuracy, what is everyone's opinion on which generally performs better?

Personally I'm inclined to support the European model for the extended.

[texas1836]

Euro

[Tireman4]

Euro..but the GFS has had it moments....

[weatherdude1108]

I saw the vagueness also in the EWX forecast. Seems conflicting.

I'm not an expert at all in the models, but I'm definitely siding with the Euro since it is trending wet and stormy, which is where my forecast bias lies.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 151957
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
257 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2015

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS TEXAS BEGINNING THURSDAY AND
REMAIN INTACT THROUGH SATURDAY. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY GIVEN
SINKING AIR (SUBSIDENCE) IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS ON
THURSDAY AS DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZE MAY SPARK SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN ON SUNDAY AS
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND HIGH
PLAINS STATES. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS REMAINS
WEAKEST WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WHILE THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF AND IT/S ENSEMBLE SOLUTION ARE TRENDING STRONGER. FOR
NOW...WE WILL ADD A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY ALONG AND EAST OF A BURNET TO KARNES CITY
LINE. WE/LL ONLY GO WITH A 20% CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AND AWAIT
ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA BEFORE GOING ANY HIGHER WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS LOW ON TUESDAY AS THE ECMWF
SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE ARE NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROUGH. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE...WE/LL CONTINUE A DRY AND WARM FORECAST ON TUESDAY.

[Ntxw]

But the front I am talking about is next week, right..one that goes through Houston?

Which front are you talking about? I haven't seen anything in the long range, if there is one the mechanism will be from a re-curving typhoon but that's beyond 7 days I think.

[Ntxw]

For fun both the CFSv2 and Euro weeklies show what is a deep cut off low (bowling ball) fed by something out of the east Pacific to begin October as September ends. Will that be a sign of winter to come? Higher heights over top as the southern branch loads systems.

[Brent]

Just started pouring rain here in Wylie. A big surprise.

[Tireman4]

But the front I am talking about is next week, right..one that goes through Houston?

Which front are you talking about? I haven't seen anything in the long range, if there is one the mechanism will be from a re-curving typhoon but that's beyond 7 days I think.

K...then I am confused..sorry about that...

[Brent]

Weatherbug still has temps dropping next week.... for Dallas after 96 on Friday, 89 Saturday, 88 Sun-Tue, 87 Wednesday, 86 Thursday-Friday and lows in the 60s after Monday

The GFS remains unimpressed with any kind of front the entire run and rain chances. Just doesn't seem realistic when it'll be almost October,.

[CaptinCrunch]

Just started pouring rain here in Wylie. A big surprise.

It poured last night about 730 for all of 6 min, but it was a heavy down pour.

[wxman57]

Folks, it looks like winter is over for southeast Texas. The brutal cold of last weekend is now a distant memory. Summer has returned!

[weatherdude1108]

Folks, it looks like winter is over for southeast Texas. The brutal cold of last weekend is now a distant memory. Summer has returned!

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfs6z16sep.gif

Oh lord. He's back.

[Tireman4]

Folks, it looks like winter is over for southeast Texas. The brutal cold of last weekend is now a distant memory. Summer has returned!

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfs6z16sep.gif

That is it. That a flagrant foul on the Wxman 57 (for taunting). That is a fifteen yard penalty and 2 months of grueling, snow bound, wind driven Winter for you.

[TheProfessor]

Can that month be in December when I'm back home?

[dhweather]

Got a surprise .08" of rain last night - one of those seabreeze showers made it all the way up here about 9PM.

[dhweather]

Folks, it looks like winter is over for southeast Texas. The brutal cold of last weekend is now a distant memory. Summer has returned!

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfs6z16sep.gif

I've learned to accept that the patented RIDGE OF DEATH will prevail through September, and usually into October. Rinse, repeat.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

For fun both the CFSv2 and Euro weeklies show what is a deep cut off low (bowling ball) fed by something out of the east Pacific to begin October as September ends. Will that be a sign of winter to come? Higher heights over top as the southern branch loads systems.

Without a doubt will be. Loaded with cool pacific air. I was looking at old analogs just last night of the '97 nino. Lots of bowling balls. Will we get some arctic air this year though possibly since the water is warmer off the NW coast?

[wxman57]

I don't see any signs of a significant cold front across SE TX in the 12Z GFS through September.

[Brent]

Folks, it looks like winter is over for southeast Texas. The brutal cold of last weekend is now a distant memory. Summer has returned!

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfs6z16sep.gif

Hey this is a Fall thread.