Can anyone post a velocity radar reading of the storms moving into Palestine/Jacksonville areas?
EDIT: ETX -The severe storm warning for Jacksonville indicates there is rotation. If anyone's on that can provide graphics of this threat, it'd be greatly appreciated.
Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 04/26-30/2014
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Re: Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 04/26-30/2014
Last edited by ravyrn on Mon Apr 28, 2014 1:22 am, edited 2 times in total.
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SPC AC 280604
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF WRN AND MIDDLE
TN SWWD ACROSS NWRN AL/NRN AND CENTRAL MS INTO FAR NERN LA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN AN ARC FROM SERN IA SEWD
INTO THE OH VALLEY...AND THEN SWD/SWWD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION...
...SUMMARY...
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS -- INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL -- ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BOUNDED BY AN AREA FROM
ROUGHLY THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THE WEST...THE APPALACHIANS ON THE
EAST...THE MIDWEST STATES ON THE NORTH...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO ON
THE SOUTH. THE GREATEST RISK IS FORECAST FROM SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE SOUTH INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW INITIALLY FORECAST OVER THE NEB VICINITY IS
PROGGED TO SHIFT SLOWLY ESEWD WITH TIME...REACHING THE SRN IA/NRN MO
AREA LATE. THE CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD SURROUNDING THIS LOW WILL COVER
A LARGE PORTION OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...AN OCCLUDED LOW INITIALLY OVER ERN NEB IS FORECAST
TO DRIFT SLOWLY EWD...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXITS THE CENTRAL
AND SRN PLAINS AND REACHES THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY AREA BY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LINGER ACROSS THE MIDWEST
STATES -- WITH A BROAD/MOIST WARM SECTOR EXTENDING FROM THE OH
VALLEY REGION TO THE GULF COAST EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS AREA FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY.
...CENTRAL KY SSWWD ACROSS TN INTO NRN AND WRN AL/MS/NERN LA...
A RATHER COMPLEX SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING FOR MONDAY...AS AN
MCS ONGOING ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AREA AND A SECOND AREA OF
STORMS OCCURRING IN A BROKEN LINE FROM S CENTRAL MO SWWD INTO NERN
TX WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF MONDAY/S SEVERE RISK AREA THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE OF STORMS
MOVING EWD TOWARD THE MS VALLEY WILL WEAKEN DURING THE MID MORNING
HOURS...WHILE THE MCS ONGOING OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY MOVES MORE
QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE MID OH VALLEY. AS THIS SCENARIO SEEMS
REASONABLE...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT SOME HEATING WILL COMMENCE ACROSS
THE KY/TN/MS/AL VICINITY BY AFTERNOON...WHICH -- COMBINED WITH THE
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE -- SHOULD YIELD AMPLE DESTABILIZATION FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SLIGHT/MDT RISK AREAS.
ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT A COMPLEX/MIXED-MODE EVENT WILL EVOLVE...BUT
WITH ROTATING/SUPERCELL STORMS LIKELY GIVEN THE FAVORABLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THUS...ALONG WITH RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...TORNADOES ARE ALSO EXPECTED -- INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES. STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD WITH TIME INTO THE
EVENING...APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. WHILE SOME
DIURNAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...SOME SEVERE RISK IS LIKELY TO LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
...PARTS OF IA/IL AND VICINITY...
AN ARCING BAND OF SHOWERS AND LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON INVOF ERN IA/WRN IL...NEAR A TRIPLE
POINT E OF THE SURFACE LOW CROSSING WRN IA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH DIURNAL HEATING SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF ROUGHLY 500 TO 1000
J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE...A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE BAND. STORM LONGEVITY/INTENSITY WILL BE AIDED BY
AN AMPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT -- PARTICULARLY JUST TO THE N SIDE OF
THE OCCLUDED/WARM FRONTS -- WHERE LOW-LEVEL ELYS VEERING WITH HEIGHT
TO SLY AT MID-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN WIND PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF
UPDRAFT ROTATION. ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL...ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BEFORE STORMS BEGIN TO DIURNALLY
WEAKEN TOWARD SUNSET.
..GOSS/LEITMAN.. 04/28/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF WRN AND MIDDLE
TN SWWD ACROSS NWRN AL/NRN AND CENTRAL MS INTO FAR NERN LA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN AN ARC FROM SERN IA SEWD
INTO THE OH VALLEY...AND THEN SWD/SWWD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION...
...SUMMARY...
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS -- INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL -- ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BOUNDED BY AN AREA FROM
ROUGHLY THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THE WEST...THE APPALACHIANS ON THE
EAST...THE MIDWEST STATES ON THE NORTH...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO ON
THE SOUTH. THE GREATEST RISK IS FORECAST FROM SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE SOUTH INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW INITIALLY FORECAST OVER THE NEB VICINITY IS
PROGGED TO SHIFT SLOWLY ESEWD WITH TIME...REACHING THE SRN IA/NRN MO
AREA LATE. THE CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD SURROUNDING THIS LOW WILL COVER
A LARGE PORTION OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...AN OCCLUDED LOW INITIALLY OVER ERN NEB IS FORECAST
TO DRIFT SLOWLY EWD...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXITS THE CENTRAL
AND SRN PLAINS AND REACHES THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY AREA BY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LINGER ACROSS THE MIDWEST
STATES -- WITH A BROAD/MOIST WARM SECTOR EXTENDING FROM THE OH
VALLEY REGION TO THE GULF COAST EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS AREA FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY.
...CENTRAL KY SSWWD ACROSS TN INTO NRN AND WRN AL/MS/NERN LA...
A RATHER COMPLEX SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING FOR MONDAY...AS AN
MCS ONGOING ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AREA AND A SECOND AREA OF
STORMS OCCURRING IN A BROKEN LINE FROM S CENTRAL MO SWWD INTO NERN
TX WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF MONDAY/S SEVERE RISK AREA THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE OF STORMS
MOVING EWD TOWARD THE MS VALLEY WILL WEAKEN DURING THE MID MORNING
HOURS...WHILE THE MCS ONGOING OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY MOVES MORE
QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE MID OH VALLEY. AS THIS SCENARIO SEEMS
REASONABLE...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT SOME HEATING WILL COMMENCE ACROSS
THE KY/TN/MS/AL VICINITY BY AFTERNOON...WHICH -- COMBINED WITH THE
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE -- SHOULD YIELD AMPLE DESTABILIZATION FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SLIGHT/MDT RISK AREAS.
ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT A COMPLEX/MIXED-MODE EVENT WILL EVOLVE...BUT
WITH ROTATING/SUPERCELL STORMS LIKELY GIVEN THE FAVORABLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THUS...ALONG WITH RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...TORNADOES ARE ALSO EXPECTED -- INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES. STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD WITH TIME INTO THE
EVENING...APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. WHILE SOME
DIURNAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...SOME SEVERE RISK IS LIKELY TO LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
...PARTS OF IA/IL AND VICINITY...
AN ARCING BAND OF SHOWERS AND LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON INVOF ERN IA/WRN IL...NEAR A TRIPLE
POINT E OF THE SURFACE LOW CROSSING WRN IA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH DIURNAL HEATING SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF ROUGHLY 500 TO 1000
J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE...A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE BAND. STORM LONGEVITY/INTENSITY WILL BE AIDED BY
AN AMPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT -- PARTICULARLY JUST TO THE N SIDE OF
THE OCCLUDED/WARM FRONTS -- WHERE LOW-LEVEL ELYS VEERING WITH HEIGHT
TO SLY AT MID-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN WIND PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF
UPDRAFT ROTATION. ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL...ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BEFORE STORMS BEGIN TO DIURNALLY
WEAKEN TOWARD SUNSET.
..GOSS/LEITMAN.. 04/28/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
While Sunday wasn't a bust by any means, did it live up to the High Risk and the hype?
As of now, SPC is showing 31 preliminary tornado reports. Some could be missing. Some could be for the same cell(s). Some were clearly more violent and destructive than others.
I only remember a few times when there were more than four or five concurrent Tornado Warnings and many of those were for the same cells as they moved to new areas.
I count 14 watches issued, but again, some of those were for the same areas, modified or upgraded. Even those and the three since midnight bring us to 107 for the year compared to 144 by this time last year and 196 by this time in 2012.
I don't see it as the massive, wide-spread outbreak some were expecting.
But, there's still today.
As of now, SPC is showing 31 preliminary tornado reports. Some could be missing. Some could be for the same cell(s). Some were clearly more violent and destructive than others.
I only remember a few times when there were more than four or five concurrent Tornado Warnings and many of those were for the same cells as they moved to new areas.
I count 14 watches issued, but again, some of those were for the same areas, modified or upgraded. Even those and the three since midnight bring us to 107 for the year compared to 144 by this time last year and 196 by this time in 2012.
I don't see it as the massive, wide-spread outbreak some were expecting.
But, there's still today.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145308
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 04/26-30/2014
Sad news this morning as the death count has gone up to 18. My condolenses to the families.
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Extratropical94
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3538
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
- Location: Hamburg, Germany
- Contact:
Re:
WeatherGuesser wrote:While Sunday wasn't a bust by any means, did it live up to the High Risk and the hype?
As of now, SPC is showing 31 preliminary tornado reports. Some could be missing. Some could be for the same cell(s). Some were clearly more violent and destructive than others.
I only remember a few times when there were more than four or five concurrent Tornado Warnings and many of those were for the same cells as they moved to new areas.
I count 14 watches issued, but again, some of those were for the same areas, modified or upgraded. Even those and the three since midnight bring us to 107 for the year compared to 144 by this time last year and 196 by this time in 2012.
I don't see it as the massive, wide-spread outbreak some were expecting.
But, there's still today.
I was thinking the same thing this morning, but IMO it was a good call to pull the trigger and put up a high risk because it simply gets the attention of the people and the media which might have saved people who otherwise would've been caught off guard.
Furthermore it's always a good thing when a high risk day doesn't wreak as much havoc as expected.
By the way, if you go back to 2011, April 28, weather watches 247-256 were issued, more than twice as many as this year in the first 4 months.
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
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Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
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apocalypt-flyer
- Category 1
- Posts: 468
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Re: Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 04/26-30/2014
They specifically warned about long-lived SCs and violent systems and even tho overall it was just the one system that pulled through in High Risk, it was within the area, probably at least EF4 considering the damage reports and we shouldn't forget that HIGH equals the 30% probability for "one" tornado appearing within the area, the hatched a 10% for that to be stronger than EF2.
So in hindsight I don't think that forecast and warning verifies too badly.
So in hindsight I don't think that forecast and warning verifies too badly.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145308
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 04/26-30/2014
TORNADO WARNING
TNC047-075-157-167-281230-
/O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0029.140428T1150Z-140428T1230Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
650 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHWESTERN HAYWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHEASTERN TIPTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
* UNTIL 730 AM CDT
* AT 650 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR DIXONVILLE...OR 12
MILES EAST OF MILLINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RURAL AREAS
OF NORTHEASTERN SHELBY...NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE...SOUTHEASTERN TIPTON
AND SOUTHWESTERN HAYWOOD COUNTIES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
.THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STORM SHELTER. IF NO
STORM SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
.TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW
TNC047-075-157-167-281230-
/O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0029.140428T1150Z-140428T1230Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
650 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHWESTERN HAYWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHEASTERN TIPTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
* UNTIL 730 AM CDT
* AT 650 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR DIXONVILLE...OR 12
MILES EAST OF MILLINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RURAL AREAS
OF NORTHEASTERN SHELBY...NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE...SOUTHEASTERN TIPTON
AND SOUTHWESTERN HAYWOOD COUNTIES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
.THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STORM SHELTER. IF NO
STORM SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
.TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 04/26-30/2014
SPC AC 281237
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014
VALID 281300Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WRN AND MIDDLE
TN...NRN AND CNTRL MS...NWRN AL...AND FAR NERN LA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID MS AND OH
VALLEYS SWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF STATES...AND EWD
TO THE CNTRL AND SRN APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...
A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. NUMEROUS TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE INTENSE. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL EDGE ONLY SLIGHTLY EWD
FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WITH THIS SYSTEM
BOUNDED ON IT/S SRN PERIPHERY BY A 500-MB JET IN EXCESS OF 70-80 KT
CURVING CYCLONICALLY FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION THROUGH LOWER MS
AND TN VALLEYS INTO CNTRL APPALACHIANS. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
HIGH-MOMENTUM AIR STREAM...A MIDLEVEL JET STREAK WILL PROGRESS FROM
THE ARKLATEX AND OZARK PLATEAU EWD INTO THE MID SOUTH. THIS
UPPER-AIR PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL MAINTAIN A 40-50+ KT SWLY LLJ OVER
THE CNTRL GULF STATES AND TN VALLEY...ENHANCING BOTH VERTICAL SHEAR
AND THE POLEWARD FLUX OF HEAT AND MOISTURE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM.
AT THE SURFACE...AN OCCLUDED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN NEB WILL
WEAKEN WHILE SLOWLY SHIFTING ACROSS SRN IA. MEANWHILE...AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY OVERTAKE A STALLED
DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT OVER THE OZARKS INTO NERN TX BEFORE ADVANCING
EWD THROUGH THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY. THE TRAILING EXTENSION OF THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH PARTS OF LA AND SERN/SRN
TX. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MAY FORM ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE MID SOUTH TODAY WITH THIS FEATURE TRACKING NEWD INTO THE
UPPER OH VALLEY. FINALLY...A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE MID MO
VALLEY LOW ESEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TO CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NWD.
...OH/LOWER MS VALLEYS EWD TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT...
AS OF 12Z...REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED A COUPLE OF SEPARATE MCSS...ONE
WITH A WELL-DEFINED MCV AND EWD/SEWD-ADVANCING COLD POOL FROM SRN
IND/CNTRL KY SWWD THROUGH WRN TN WHERE IT INTERSECTED A MORE
RECENTLY DEVELOPED SYSTEM WHICH TRAILED SSWWD THROUGH NWRN MS TO NRN
LA AND ERN TX. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD ACROSS PARTS
OF TN...MS...LA...PERHAPS AL THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...POSING A RISK FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL BEFORE WEAKENING LATER TODAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THESE INITIAL STORMS...CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
TSTMS BY AFTERNOON ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE
EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT FROM WRN OR MIDDLE TN SWWD THROUGH NRN/CNTRL
MS INTO NERN LA. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
INDICATE THAT A PRONOUNCED EML HAS BEEN ADVECTED EWD INTO THE REGION
WITH 700-500-MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.0 C/KM. THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES
OVERLIE A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /I.E. LOWEST 100-MB MEAN-MIXING
RATIOS OF 13.5-15.5 G PER KG/ WHICH WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG IN AREAS WHERE STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING CAN
OCCUR. THIS INSTABILITY WILL ALIGN WITH 50-70 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
AND EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
POTENTIALLY VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF INTENSE TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. MESOSCALE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK LATER
TODAY.
THE NRN EXTENT OF THIS FAVORABLE WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
DICTATED BY THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE CURRENT COLD POOL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE LOWER OH INTO PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY. WHERE STRONGER
BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING CAN OCCUR...THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL NWD INTO SRN
PARTS OF THE MID OH VALLEY.
AN EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS INTO ONE OR
MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS APPEARS LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER PARTS OF THE MID OH AND TN VALLEYS SWD
TOWARD THE CNTRL GULF COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS EWD INTO
THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND ERN GULF STATES WITH A CONTINUING
THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS.
...MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...
ANALOGOUS TO YESTERDAY/S EVENTS OVER CNTRL NEB...A SIMILAR SETUP
WILL EVOLVE OVER THE REGION TODAY WHEREBY THE MIDLEVEL COLD POOL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERLIES A WARMING BOUNDARY
LAYER...YIELDING STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. A
PRONOUNCED GRADIENT IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST BY
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KT ALONG THE
OCCLUDED FRONT OVER SRN IA INTO W-CNTRL IL...TO 50-60 KT OVER
CNTRL/SRN PARTS OF IL/IND AND POINTS SOUTH. AS SUCH...MIXED STORM
MODES WILL LIKELY EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING MULTICELL AND
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...THOUGH
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF A
VERTICAL-VORTICITY-RICH ENVIRONMENT.
...CNTRL/ERN NC CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A BUILDING MIDLEVEL RIDGE...LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SLOWLY RETREATING WEDGE FRONT MAY FOSTER AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MLCAPE APPROACHING 500-1500 J/KG AND A VERTICALLY VEERING
WIND PROFILE WITH 30-35 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF
LARGE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..MEAD/MOSIER.. 04/28/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1314Z (9:14AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014
VALID 281300Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WRN AND MIDDLE
TN...NRN AND CNTRL MS...NWRN AL...AND FAR NERN LA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID MS AND OH
VALLEYS SWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF STATES...AND EWD
TO THE CNTRL AND SRN APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...
A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. NUMEROUS TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE INTENSE. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL EDGE ONLY SLIGHTLY EWD
FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WITH THIS SYSTEM
BOUNDED ON IT/S SRN PERIPHERY BY A 500-MB JET IN EXCESS OF 70-80 KT
CURVING CYCLONICALLY FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION THROUGH LOWER MS
AND TN VALLEYS INTO CNTRL APPALACHIANS. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
HIGH-MOMENTUM AIR STREAM...A MIDLEVEL JET STREAK WILL PROGRESS FROM
THE ARKLATEX AND OZARK PLATEAU EWD INTO THE MID SOUTH. THIS
UPPER-AIR PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL MAINTAIN A 40-50+ KT SWLY LLJ OVER
THE CNTRL GULF STATES AND TN VALLEY...ENHANCING BOTH VERTICAL SHEAR
AND THE POLEWARD FLUX OF HEAT AND MOISTURE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM.
AT THE SURFACE...AN OCCLUDED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN NEB WILL
WEAKEN WHILE SLOWLY SHIFTING ACROSS SRN IA. MEANWHILE...AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY OVERTAKE A STALLED
DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT OVER THE OZARKS INTO NERN TX BEFORE ADVANCING
EWD THROUGH THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY. THE TRAILING EXTENSION OF THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH PARTS OF LA AND SERN/SRN
TX. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MAY FORM ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE MID SOUTH TODAY WITH THIS FEATURE TRACKING NEWD INTO THE
UPPER OH VALLEY. FINALLY...A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE MID MO
VALLEY LOW ESEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TO CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NWD.
...OH/LOWER MS VALLEYS EWD TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT...
AS OF 12Z...REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED A COUPLE OF SEPARATE MCSS...ONE
WITH A WELL-DEFINED MCV AND EWD/SEWD-ADVANCING COLD POOL FROM SRN
IND/CNTRL KY SWWD THROUGH WRN TN WHERE IT INTERSECTED A MORE
RECENTLY DEVELOPED SYSTEM WHICH TRAILED SSWWD THROUGH NWRN MS TO NRN
LA AND ERN TX. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD ACROSS PARTS
OF TN...MS...LA...PERHAPS AL THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...POSING A RISK FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL BEFORE WEAKENING LATER TODAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THESE INITIAL STORMS...CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
TSTMS BY AFTERNOON ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE
EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT FROM WRN OR MIDDLE TN SWWD THROUGH NRN/CNTRL
MS INTO NERN LA. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
INDICATE THAT A PRONOUNCED EML HAS BEEN ADVECTED EWD INTO THE REGION
WITH 700-500-MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.0 C/KM. THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES
OVERLIE A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /I.E. LOWEST 100-MB MEAN-MIXING
RATIOS OF 13.5-15.5 G PER KG/ WHICH WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG IN AREAS WHERE STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING CAN
OCCUR. THIS INSTABILITY WILL ALIGN WITH 50-70 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
AND EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
POTENTIALLY VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF INTENSE TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. MESOSCALE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK LATER
TODAY.
THE NRN EXTENT OF THIS FAVORABLE WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
DICTATED BY THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE CURRENT COLD POOL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE LOWER OH INTO PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY. WHERE STRONGER
BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING CAN OCCUR...THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL NWD INTO SRN
PARTS OF THE MID OH VALLEY.
AN EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS INTO ONE OR
MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS APPEARS LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER PARTS OF THE MID OH AND TN VALLEYS SWD
TOWARD THE CNTRL GULF COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS EWD INTO
THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND ERN GULF STATES WITH A CONTINUING
THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS.
...MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...
ANALOGOUS TO YESTERDAY/S EVENTS OVER CNTRL NEB...A SIMILAR SETUP
WILL EVOLVE OVER THE REGION TODAY WHEREBY THE MIDLEVEL COLD POOL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERLIES A WARMING BOUNDARY
LAYER...YIELDING STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. A
PRONOUNCED GRADIENT IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST BY
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KT ALONG THE
OCCLUDED FRONT OVER SRN IA INTO W-CNTRL IL...TO 50-60 KT OVER
CNTRL/SRN PARTS OF IL/IND AND POINTS SOUTH. AS SUCH...MIXED STORM
MODES WILL LIKELY EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING MULTICELL AND
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...THOUGH
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF A
VERTICAL-VORTICITY-RICH ENVIRONMENT.
...CNTRL/ERN NC CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A BUILDING MIDLEVEL RIDGE...LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SLOWLY RETREATING WEDGE FRONT MAY FOSTER AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MLCAPE APPROACHING 500-1500 J/KG AND A VERTICALLY VEERING
WIND PROFILE WITH 30-35 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF
LARGE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..MEAD/MOSIER.. 04/28/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1314Z (9:14AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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Tireman4
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5853
- Age: 59
- Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Re: Re:
Bunkertor wrote:Hm...NAM Sigtor again <10 for central Alabama with SBCAPE ~4000 ! 18z onwards
Bunk,
This could be worse than yesterday. There are schools being let out in early in preparation.
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Re: Re:
Tireman4 wrote:Bunkertor wrote:Hm...NAM Sigtor again <10 for central Alabama with SBCAPE ~4000 ! 18z onwards
Bunk,
This could be worse than yesterday. There are schools being let out in early in preparation.
Hm, the AL windbarbs are already spinning. I don't know. Not scarier than yesterday's LXZ skew-T, but i think the SPC guys will hand a small high risk area for central AL. Edit: Given the current plots this would be the 1630z outlook.
BTW: What sites for wx analysis are you using ?
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-
Tireman4
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5853
- Age: 59
- Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Re: Re:
Bunkertor wrote:Tireman4 wrote:Bunkertor wrote:Hm...NAM Sigtor again <10 for central Alabama with SBCAPE ~4000 ! 18z onwards
Bunk,
This could be worse than yesterday. There are schools being let out in early in preparation.
Hm, the AL windbarbs are already spinning. I don't know. Not scarier than yesterday's LXZ skew-T, but i think the SPC guys will hand a small high risk area for central AL. Edit: Given the current plots this would be the 1630z outlook.
BTW: What sites for wx analysis are you using ?
Some of the SPC and local NWS stations in the area affected...
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Re: Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 04/26-30/2014
Back home in Tuscaloosa. Current temp is 77 with a DP of 70 and the sun has started breaking through the clouds at times. They have started shutting down schools early around Tuscaloosa but not in Tuscaloosa County that I'm aware of.
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-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SPC AC 281646
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014
VALID 281630Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF MS...AL..TN...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AROSS A LARGE AREA FROM THE
LOWER/MID MS VALLEY EWD TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. NUMEROUS TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE INTENSE. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY.
...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED/OCCLUDED LOW OVER ERN NEB WILL WOBBLE EWD ACROSS IA/NRN MO
AS SERIES OF EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA ROTATE AROUND THE SRN AND ERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. AT THE SURFACE...THE WARM SECTOR EXTENDS AS
FAR N/NW AS CENTRAL IL AND SRN IA...THOUGH THE RICHER MOISTURE AND
GREATER BUOYANCY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE LA/MS/AL AREA TODAY. THE
MAIN SEVERE THREATS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CONFINED TO TWO CORRIDORS
- A SUPERCELL/TORNADO RISK FROM MS ACROSS NW AL/SRN MIDDLE TN...AND
AN ARC OF STORMS WITHIN THE DRY SLOT FROM SRN IA TO CENTRAL IL.
...MS/AL/TN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
MORNING STORMS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING...LEAVING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT IS BETTER-DEFINED ACROSS SRN MIDDLE TN...AND MORE DIFFUSE WITH
SWWD EXTENT ACROSS NW MS TO NE LA. CLEARING OF THE MORNING CLOUD
DEBRIS IS ALSO ALLOWING STRONGER SURFACE HEATING TO COMMENCE FROM LA
INTO SW MS...WITH ADDITIONAL CLEARING EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS NE MS AND NW AL. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WEAKENING OF
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD ALLOW RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
OR JUST E OF THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NE LA NEWD ACROSS MS
AND NW AL TO SRN MIDDLE TN BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THE STORM
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE NEAR 2000
J/KG...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KT...EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-300
MS2/S2...AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. GIVEN THE SUBTLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT...A DISCRETE OR CLUSTER SUPERCELL MODE APPEARS LIKELY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL STRONG AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM CENTRAL MS NEWD TO NW AL. THIS AREA WILL BE
MONITORED CAREFULLY FOR A HIGH RISK UPGRADE IN A NARROW CORRIDOR BY
20Z.
BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A BAND
OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS...WITH A
CONTINUED RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL
WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS ERN TN...NW GA...AL AND
CENTRAL/SRN MS.
...ERN MO/WRN IL INTO SRN IA THIS AFTERNOON...
A BROKEN ARC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT FROM ERN MO NWD AND NWWD INTO SRN IA...WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO W CENTRAL IL DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AN ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
SHEAR...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND
A COUPLE TORNADOES.
...SRN NC/NRN SC THIS AFTERNOON...
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE LOW-MIDLEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS. MODERATE INSTABILITY
ALONG THE FRONT AND SEA BREEZE WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.
..THOMPSON/EDWARDS.. 04/28/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1650Z (12:50PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014
VALID 281630Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF MS...AL..TN...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AROSS A LARGE AREA FROM THE
LOWER/MID MS VALLEY EWD TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. NUMEROUS TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE INTENSE. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY.
...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED/OCCLUDED LOW OVER ERN NEB WILL WOBBLE EWD ACROSS IA/NRN MO
AS SERIES OF EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA ROTATE AROUND THE SRN AND ERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. AT THE SURFACE...THE WARM SECTOR EXTENDS AS
FAR N/NW AS CENTRAL IL AND SRN IA...THOUGH THE RICHER MOISTURE AND
GREATER BUOYANCY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE LA/MS/AL AREA TODAY. THE
MAIN SEVERE THREATS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CONFINED TO TWO CORRIDORS
- A SUPERCELL/TORNADO RISK FROM MS ACROSS NW AL/SRN MIDDLE TN...AND
AN ARC OF STORMS WITHIN THE DRY SLOT FROM SRN IA TO CENTRAL IL.
...MS/AL/TN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
MORNING STORMS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING...LEAVING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT IS BETTER-DEFINED ACROSS SRN MIDDLE TN...AND MORE DIFFUSE WITH
SWWD EXTENT ACROSS NW MS TO NE LA. CLEARING OF THE MORNING CLOUD
DEBRIS IS ALSO ALLOWING STRONGER SURFACE HEATING TO COMMENCE FROM LA
INTO SW MS...WITH ADDITIONAL CLEARING EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS NE MS AND NW AL. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WEAKENING OF
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD ALLOW RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
OR JUST E OF THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NE LA NEWD ACROSS MS
AND NW AL TO SRN MIDDLE TN BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THE STORM
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE NEAR 2000
J/KG...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KT...EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-300
MS2/S2...AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. GIVEN THE SUBTLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT...A DISCRETE OR CLUSTER SUPERCELL MODE APPEARS LIKELY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL STRONG AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM CENTRAL MS NEWD TO NW AL. THIS AREA WILL BE
MONITORED CAREFULLY FOR A HIGH RISK UPGRADE IN A NARROW CORRIDOR BY
20Z.
BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A BAND
OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS...WITH A
CONTINUED RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL
WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS ERN TN...NW GA...AL AND
CENTRAL/SRN MS.
...ERN MO/WRN IL INTO SRN IA THIS AFTERNOON...
A BROKEN ARC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT FROM ERN MO NWD AND NWWD INTO SRN IA...WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO W CENTRAL IL DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AN ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
SHEAR...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND
A COUPLE TORNADOES.
...SRN NC/NRN SC THIS AFTERNOON...
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE LOW-MIDLEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS. MODERATE INSTABILITY
ALONG THE FRONT AND SEA BREEZE WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.
..THOMPSON/EDWARDS.. 04/28/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1650Z (12:50PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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