Memorial Day Weekend Outbreak 2008

[brunota2003]

Holy crap Did you see the photo of it over the interstate, and all that traffic! Wow...images 15 and 16 o.o

And it was two separate tornadoes, looking at one of the images towards the end #28

[Bunkertor]

[wbug1]

65 dbz base reflec on the strong cell with tor warning moving NE near coldwater, ks.

[brunota2003]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
837 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

KSC007-033-097-151-230215-
/O.CON.KDDC.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-080523T0215Z/
PRATT KS-KIOWA KS-BARBER KS-COMANCHE KS-
837 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN COMANCHE...NORTHWESTERN BARBER...SOUTHEASTERN KIOWA AND
SOUTHWESTERN PRATT COUNTIES...

AT 835 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION 11 MILES SOUTH OF
BELVIDERE...OR 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMORE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 29
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELVIDERE...
SUN CITY...
CROFT...
COATS...
RURAL RESIDENCES OF NORTHEASTERN COMANCHE...NORTHWESTERN BARBER...
SOUTHEASTERN KIOWA AND SOUTHWESTERN PRATT COUNTIES.

AT 832 PM AN OFF DUTY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEE REPORTED
TENNIS BALL SIZED HAIL 4 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF WILMORE.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES.

Ouch, that'll put a dent or two into your car. Also, looking at the radar, seems this storm is hooking.

[RL3AO]

Windsor tornado radar, straight from AWIPS.




http://www.crh.noaa.gov/bou/?n=tor_radar_052208

[brunota2003]

Talk about a backwards hook echo O.o

[HarlequinBoy]

That is a scary looking storm.

[RL3AO]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
802 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2008

WYC021-230230-
/O.CON.KCYS.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-080523T0230Z/
LARAMIE WY-
802 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM MDT FOR WESTERN
LARAMIE COUNTY...

AT 758 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS
AT FLYING J TRUCK STOP NEAR CHEYENNE...AND AT WARREN AIR FORCE
BASE. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WARREN AF BASE...OR NEAR
CHEYENNE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 40 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
I-25 MM 21 BY 810 PM...
FEDERAL BY 815 PM...
WHITAKER BY 820 PM...

[CrazyC83]

New watch coming out.

[CrazyC83]

SEL9

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 339
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
915 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL KANSAS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 915 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST OF GRAND ISLAND
NEBRASKA TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF ENID OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 336. WATCH NUMBER 336 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
915 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 335...WW 337...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS CLUSTERS/SUPERCELLS NOW IN NW/N CNTRL KS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST AND MOVE/DEVELOP NNE AS STRONG/MOIST SLY LLJ CONTINUES E
OF CLUSTER AND IMPINGES ON WNW/ESE-ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT. MORE
ISOLD STORMS/SUPERCELLS SHOULD ALSO PERSIST FARTHER S...ALONG AND
AHEAD OF WAVY DRY LINE EXTENDING SSW INTO THE NE TX PANHANDLE. LOW
LCLS AND STRENGTH OF LOW-LVL SHEAR SUGGEST CONTINUED RISK FOR
TORNADOES OVERNIGHT...DESPITE INCREASING CINH AND INCREASINGLY
COMPLEX STORM MODE. A FEW ADDITIONAL SVR STORMS MAY FORM IN AREA OF
ENHANCED WAA ACROSS S CNTRL/SE KS INTO NE OK.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21530.


...CORFIDI

[CrazyC83]

Any soundings for the area? Overnight activity depends on how much the cap rebuilds.

[Bunkertor]

Latest sounds:

Caps done at

OK ( CAPE 4T surface, 3T mixed , CINH 0 ), Little Rock, Dodge, ( Topeka strong ) and ~Amarillo. Rest almost stable or not calculated, yet.

Corpus Christi : Cape 5600 surface, 4500 mixed, Li- 11,but LCL 650, LFC 2500...

So, i´d say that´s nearly it.

[CrazyC83]

Little change today:

SPC AC 230555

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS EXTREME SERN
WY...EXTREME NERN CO...SRN NEB PANHANDLE...SWRN AND EXTREME
S-CENTRAL NEB...W-CENTRAL/NERN KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM ERN WY TO
W-CENTRAL OK AND SERN NEB...

ANOTHER REGIONALIZED OUTBREAK OF SVR TSTMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
WITH TORNADOES AND LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL...IS FCST ACROSS PORTIONS
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY UPPER AIR FEATURE FOR THIS FCST WILL CONTINUE TO BE LARGE
CYCLONIC GYRE COVERING MOST OF WRN CONUS. UPPER LEVEL MERIDIONAL
GRADIENT WINDS ARE FCST TO BE STRONGER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THIS REGION...E.G. 70-80 KT AT 250 MB AS COMPARED TO 40-50
KT ANALYZED ON 23/00Z CHART AT THAT LEVEL...AS SPEED MAX PIVOTS
AROUND PERIPHERAL ERN SEMICIRCLE OF CYCLONE.

AT SFC...MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON POSITION OF SFC LOW ACROSS NERN
CO/SERN WY AREA...NAM BEING FARTHEST S AND OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO
CONSENSUS OF SPECTRAL...MOST SREF MEMBERS AND PRIOR ECMWF RUN.
QUASISTATIONARY AND PRONOUNCED SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL EXTEND ESEWD
FROM LOW ACROSS SERN NEB...N-CENTRAL AND E-CENTRAL KS. THIS FRONT
SHOULD MOVE LITTLE EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED MODULATIONS RESULTING FROM
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. DRYLINE SHOULD INTERSECT FRONT OVER NWRN KS
AND EXTEND SWD ACROSS ERN PORTIONS TX/OK PANHANDLES...MIXING
SLIGHTLY EWD DURING LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AND
RETREATING SOMEWHAT WWD LATE AFTERNOON INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...SERN WY TO NERN CO AND SWRN NEB...
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP....INITIALLY INVOF FRONTAL
ZONE OVER CYS RIDGE REGION...SRN PANHANDLE OF NEB...NERN CO AND SWRN
NEB...THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL EXPERIENCE ADDITIONAL
MOIST ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW...AIDING IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND
MAINTENANCE...AND COMBINING WITH SFC HEATING TO YIELD ENHANCED SVR
THREAT IN NARROW/WNW-ESE ALIGNED CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY WILL
BE MRGL IN THIS SEGMENT OF FRONTAL ZONE...MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG
MAY DEVELOP CONCURRENT WITH VERY STG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...E.G. 60-70
KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES...AND 0-1 KM SRH 150-300 J/KG.
SEVERAL TORNADOES...A FEW POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT...ALONG WITH LARGE
HAIL AND SVR GUSTS...ARE POSSIBLE.

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
STRONG DIABATIC SFC HEATING...COMBINED WITH ASCENT ALONG DRYLINE AND
FRONT...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MID-LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE AND ALONG/S OF FRONT. SUPERCELLS
FORMING IN THIS REGIME WILL OFFER THREAT OF TORNADOES ANYTIME DURING
THEIR MATURITY...BUT PARTICULARLY UPON INTERACTING WITH FRONTAL
ZONE...WHERE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY...STORM-RELATIVE FLOW AND SRH ALL
ARE MAXIMIZED. STRONGER UPPER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE
PRECIPITATION VENTING DOWNSHEAR...PERHAPS COUNTERBALANCING
TENDENCIES FOR SEEDING AND INTERFERENCE FROM CLOSE-PROXIMITY STORMS.
THESE FACTORS..ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENTAL
INGREDIENTS...SUGGEST SEVERAL LONG-LIVED/CYCLIC SUPERCELLS AGAIN ARE
POSSIBLE...PRODUCING TORNADOES...SOME SIGNIFICANT...ALONG WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS.

OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED MCS NOW N OF OKC HAS CREATED AREA OF RELATIVELY
LOW THETAE AIR...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD ADVECT NWD AND MIX AWAY THROUGH
MORNING HOURS...AND ALLOW ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN NWD ACROSS WRN OK
AND WRN KS DURING DAYTIME. PRIND 60S F SFC DEW POINTS WILL BE
COMMON IN MOIST SECTOR BY AFTERNOON...WITH NARROW CORRIDOR OF 50S
EXTENDING NWWD INVOF FRONTAL ZONE TOWARD EXTREME NERN CO...NEB
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN WY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
SFC HEATING AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO YIELD 2000-3500 J/KG
MLCAPES. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY WILL DIMINISH DURING EVENING...SEVERAL
HOURS OF SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
SUNSET...JUXTAPOSED WITH LARGE SRH RESULTING FROM LENGTHENING OF LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPH BY LLJ. THEREFORE..TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO EVENING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY GEN WEAKENING OF OVERALL
SVR THREAT AFTER APPROXIMATELY 24/06Z.

..EDWARDS/SMITH.. 05/23/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1154Z (7:54AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

46 tornado reports yesterday. Not much change today, more tornadoes are quite likely in the same area.

[CrazyC83]

Hints of another high risk!

SPC AC 231242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NEB AND WESTERN KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WESTERN OK INTO SOUTHWEST
SD...

...A REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS IS ANTICIPATED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF NEB/KS...

A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH THE
DAY1 FORECAST PERIOD. ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ROTATED
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND IS NOW LIFTING INTO THE DAKOTAS. ANOTHER
STRONG TROUGH IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND WILL EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER VERY FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NEB/KS/CO WITH THE
RISK OF STRONG TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...KS/NEB THIS MORNING...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF
KS AND SOUTHERN NEB. THESE STORMS ARE IN REGION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 50-60 KNOT WINDS AT 850MB. ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH MID
MORNING. AFTER THAT...WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND GRADUAL
COUPLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TEND TO DIMINISH ACTIVITY BY
MID/LATE MORNING.

...WY/CO/NEB PANHANDLE...
EASTERN UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHEAST CO/SOUTHEAST WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL HELP YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
INTENSE STORMS DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE. BACKED SURFACE WINDS AND
SIGNIFICANT VEERING/INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL RESULT IN
EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES OF 150-250 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES
OF 40-50 KNOTS. THIS WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
AND A FEW TORNADOES BY MID AFTERNOON.

...KS/NEB...
MORNING CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF KS AND SOUTHERN NEB WILL LIKELY
LEAVE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER PRIMARY THREAT AREA...BUT MAY
ALSO LEAVE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MUCH OF
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH AT LEAST
MID AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. NEVERTHELESS...
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL DRAW RICH GULF MOISTURE INTO
REGION WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG IN CLOUDY
AREA...TO 2500-3000 J/KG OVER SOUTHERN KS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND
CAPPING WILL ALSO EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BEFORE
NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES TOWARD 00Z. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
DRYLINE...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER DARK OVER WEST CENTRAL KS
AND TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN NEB. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG AND POTENTIALLY LONG-LIVED TORNADOES WELL INTO
THE NIGHT. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY IN STRONGER STORMS.
IF BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ANALYZED ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR REMAINS
INTACT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THIS MAY BE THE AREA OF GREATEST
TORNADO THREAT. THE NEED FOR AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK IN PARTS OF
THE REGION WILL BE RE-EVALUATED IN LATER UPDATES AS AFFECTS OF
MORNING CONVECTION...LOCATION OF BOUNDARIES...AND TRENDS IN CAPPING
INVERSION ARE MORE CONFIDENTLY ASCERTAINED.

...OK/TX...
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ALONG SURFACE DRYLINE FROM
WESTERN OK INTO WEST TX TODAY. WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXTREMELY ISOLATED ALONG THIS AXIS.
HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL HAVE A THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

..HART/SMITH.. 05/23/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1258Z (8:58AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Bunkertor]

Swiss Meteomedia-team hits the bulls eye

http://www.meteomedia.ch/usa08/20080522/20080522.html

[wbug1]

Are these storms actually there? I'm getting some weird behaviour with the storms appearing and disappearing off the NWS radar.


http://cid-74d76799a4c989a7.spaces.live ... 989A7!112/

Plainview, tx thunderstorms 13:25 UTC May 23rd

[Bunkertor]

Public Severe Weather Outlook


ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 230908
COZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-231715-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0408 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

NORTHEAST COLORADO
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
SOUTHEAST WYOMING

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES TODAY AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES ROTATE OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE SITUATION
WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE DRYLINE OVER THIS AREA AND TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE RISK AREA. VEERING AND INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT COUPLED WITH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL POSE A
RISK OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...AS WELL AS VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING
HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..HART.. 05/23/2008

[KWT]

Oh yeah by the way the team that is from the UK that I'm watching bagged 2, maybe 3 tornadoes yesterday, some large hail which dented their car and also some extreme straight line winds estimated at 80mph, maybe even a little higher.

[Bunkertor]

The german team had bad luck yesterday. They only had to drive towards CO and they sucked. I can´t believe it.