Texas Fall-2015

[Ntxw]

You know, per Ryan Maue, the Euro is going 7km... that's quite high resolution for this winter in parallel runs. That's like high res NAM stuff. We'll be able to see wxman57 (a little blurry) sunbathing in his front lawn this winter from the model!

Ah, nice to see you're coming around to my way of thinking about a warm, dry winter!

Pffff, you'll be tubing down one of the bayou's this winter. At the rate and frequency in which it rains, you'll be miserable and cold. Only thing worse than a dry cold is a wet cold

I think this is like the 10th time this year I've seen a map with bright colors in Texas like this. Before, maybe once every other year. Can we ask mother nature for puddle effect snow?




In other news...Sandra just became a hurricane. As soon as her eye clears probably the record breaking and tying major. If you are wondering still what kind of a season the EPAC is having...the Atlantic in 2005 had 250 ACE (energy of all cyclones) while EPAC is sitting around 270 units. It also produced the strongest hurricane in the western hemisphere (Patricia) and 10 (sandra will be 11th) majors. 2005 Atlantic had 7 majors. Back in August the EPAC had 3 category 4 hurricanes all occurring simultaneously at once. Just record season to fuel our record rains...

[TheProfessor]

5-6 inches of rain has to pretty much be unheard of for Southern Illinois at this time of year.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: 5-6 inches of rain has to pretty much be unheard of for Southern Illinois at this time of year.

The nearest station I could find was Paducah, KY. Records there is in the 4-5" range. Definitely up there in terms of rarity.

[Brent]

Has the NAM lost its mind?

[TheProfessor]

Was it the NAM or the CMC that predicted the 2010 storm? I know the RGEM performed really well last winter, does the Nam do well at picking up cold air?

Edit: there has to be something wrong with the model's snow conversion as the temperatures are far too warm. Though we have seen snow with temps above freezing, but with temps in the lower 40s and upper 30s on the models and without a cold core low I can't see snow falling.

Edit2: looking at the Nam's skew T's, it has a large warmnose from about 675mb to 925mb, then from about 925mb to 975mb it's below freezing, then it's slightly above freezing at the surface, I can't see that being being snow, and it would be likely heavy rain would bring down the warmer air I think.

[Brent]

Yeah looking at maps DFW only gets down to 37 and the freeze line is more like Abilene or even beyond... pretty much in line with other forecasts which are for heavy rain.

[Ralph's Weather]

NAM seems to do well with Arctic air but under does moisture. The GEM tends to be on the cold side, which means it will occasionally hit when a storm over performs.

Always have to be wary of how different sites portray winter precip. Without a large vertical area of very cold (-10C and below) saturated air it pretty much has to be below freezing throughout the column for snow.

[TheProfessor]

What do you guys think about the Siberian Snow theory?
Btw I like Judah Cohen's temperature map on this site, would love for some Cold Core lows to track over Texas and move just south of Ohio with that map. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/cap ... antic-d-c/

[Ntxw]

The NAM has done a few false alarms with set ups like this before. When it succeeded with the footer was because it correctly predicted colder temps aloft as well as at the surface. This case though there is a clear warm layer, maybe it thinks sleet/ice is snow. But again I have to emphasize it is not always the model but rather the formula the site/person chooses to interpret in their coding of what is snow and what is rain as Ralph's Weather mentioned. For example, instantweathermaps is another source that doesn't have that kind of totals from the same model.

[TheProfessor]

It's going to be a messy drive all up I-35 this week.

[Brent]

So apparently DFW needs 6.11" for wettest November ever.(1918).. might not be impossible.

2000 is in 2nd place at 5.12" needed

4.02" for top 10

[SouthernMet]

West Central Tx, Abilene areas need to watch this weekend closely and even western counties in North Tx could be borderline. Really looks like a freezing rain event is developing for Abilene - Childress line and back westward, with sleet further west. Fort Worth/Denton could also be borderline as of right now guidance has low-mid 30's with rain but no ice.

CMC has been very consistent and has upper 20's as close as Mineral Wells, Decatur & Bowie. Watch this solution because it hasn't flip flopped one time in a week.

We are entering the *nowcasting* period, and data sampling will become better for model guidance. Winter Storm Watches are up for the Panhandle + Western Oklahoma, and I suspect they will be expanded. If not, I could see them issue a Freezing Rain or Winter Weather Advisory for Northwest Tx.

[SouthernMet]

This is a very realistic possibility, New Years 2015 anyone?? ((NWS FW/AFD))

SO THE ONE OTHER THING TO FOCUS ON CONCERNS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST...WHICH WAS TO LOWER TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY TO FAVOR THE COLDER NAM GUIDANCE. THIS WILL PUT
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE BALLPARK OF 32 DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...VERY WARM AIR
ABOVE THE SURFACE /5000 FT TEMPS OF 50 DEG F AND A 10000 FT DEEP
ABOVE FREEZING LAYER/ MEANS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE RAIN.
FURTHERMORE CONTINUOUS MODERATE RAINFALL WILL HELP TO BRING WARMER
AIR DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EVEN WITH SURFACE TEMPS NEAR FREEZING...
RAIN DROPS WOULD HAVE TO COOL 10+ DEGREES TO REACH FREEZING AND
THEN WOULD RELEASE EVEN MORE LATENT HEAT TO MAKE THE PHASE CHANGE
FROM WATER TO ICE. THERE JUST IS NOT ENOUGH COLD AIR FORECAST TO
MAKE US CONCERNED ABOUT A FREEZING RAIN EVENT. IF THE RAIN WERE TO
STOP THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME REFREEZING OF WATER ON
ELEVATED SURFACES. BUT TO GET A TRUE WINTER WEATHER EVENT WE WOULD
NEED THE FORECAST LOW LEVEL TEMPS TO BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER. ONE
FINAL NOTE...WE ALREADY HAVE SEEN NAM MODEL OUTPUT FLOATING AROUND
ON THE WEB THAT SHOWS MULTI-INCH SNOW AMOUNTS WEST OF I-35 WITH
THIS EVENT. THIS OUTPUT IS QUITE SIMPLY GARBAGE. SNOWFALL GRAPHICS
ARE OFTEN NOT AN EXPLICIT MODEL FORECAST...THEY ARE POST-PROCESSED
USING VERY SIMPLISTIC ALGORITHMS AND RULES OF THUMB. ALTHOUGH THEY
LOOK PRETTY...IN THIS CASE THERE IS NO WAY IT IS GOING TO SNOW
WITH THAT SAME MODEL SHOWING A MASSIVE LAYER OF WARM AIR ABOVE.

[weatherdude1108]

Lake Buchanan is in the prime spot for getting filled.

000
WWUS84 KEWX 251137
SPSEWX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
537 AM CST WED NOV 25 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-252100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
537 AM CST WED NOV 25 2015

...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A
COLD FRONT WILL TAP INTO PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE SANDRA...
PRODUCING A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
THANKSGIVING DAY WEEKEND. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NUMEROUS
OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME THURSDAY...WITH MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINS EXPECTED.

BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A
FEW AREAS TO SEE TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR. THE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL ONLY
ACT TO EXTEND THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL INTO DAYTIME SATURDAY...
AND RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER MOST
AREAS...BUT A FEW AREAS COULD POSSIBLY RECEIVE OVER 6 INCHES. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY HIGHEST OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THOSE PLANNING
TRAVEL OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND OR OTHER HOLIDAY RELATED
ACTIVITIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

$$


Chances for rain will increase Thanksgiving Day and Night and then peak Friday through Saturday night ahead of and behind a cold front. Locally heavy rainfall is possible, mainly Friday into Saturday. Rainfall totals from Thursday through Sunday will average from 1 to 3 inches, however isolated pockets up to 6 inches will be possible, especially over the Hill Country and Central Texas.


A storm system will likely produce travel impacts across portions of Texas during the Thanksgiving Holiday Weekend. Wintry precipitation across the Panhandle is expected, along with locally heavy rainfall across North and Central Texas Thanksgiving night through Saturday night.

[wxman57]

You know, per Ryan Maue, the Euro is going 7km... that's quite high resolution for this winter in parallel runs. That's like high res NAM stuff. We'll be able to see wxman57 (a little blurry) sunbathing in his front lawn this winter from the model!

Ah, nice to see you're coming around to my way of thinking about a warm, dry winter!

Pffff, you'll be tubing down one of the bayou's this winter. At the rate and frequency in which it rains, you'll be miserable and cold. Only thing worse than a dry cold is a wet cold...

Yeah, I'm afraid it's not looking like my type of winter. I expect a number if ice/snow events across Texas this winter.

Off-topic - you may notice that my avatar has disappeared. Comcast decided to no longer offer personal web space, which is where my avatar was stored along with my weather page and meteogram spreadsheets. I still have all of the files, but I need to find a new server for them. Any suggestions? I can't post an image here without having someplace to put it.

[gboudx]

Try google drive. It's free.

[Ralph's Weather]

Just for fun I looked at the CFS, >40" of snow for the Panhandle this week and >100" of snow for the next 5 weeks.

On a realistic note, it looks like all models besides the GFS are in pretty good agreement. The GFS is holding the inverted trough over E TX through the weekend while the others move it east so all impacts are shifted NW on the GFS compared to other models. I am expecting the trough to be somewhat progressive so I am thinking that the Arctic air mass makes it at least through NE TX though not as confident that it will clear SE TX.

[Tammie]

Is this going to be just a heavy rain event, or storms as well? TIA!

[Ralph's Weather]

Is this going to be just a heavy rain event, or storms as well? TIA!

Just rain as far as I know. A lot will fall on the cold side of the storm.

[ndale]

Is this going to be just a heavy rain event, or storms as well? TIA!

I don't know about your area but here in the Austin area EWX is saying thunderstorms possible even with temps as low as the 40s.