Texas Fall 2025

[Stratton23]

Very impressive high latitude blocking on the Euro run, I still think changes will come in the 2nd half of october, but we will see, i might just be grasping at straws here though lol, i speak for most people when i say get outta here 90’s!!!!!

[Brent]

Well it can't stay hot all month

I don't think

We seem to be back on believing some kind of front in about a week here

[HockeyTx82]

My bell pepper plant is still producing, so I'm not sure what's going on.....

[snownado]

Isn’t this more or less an offseason death ridge? Temps are way above normal, very dry flash drought conditions, troughs can’t even get close enough to create some breezes and eventually the air quality goes to hell. If it was early August with this setup we’d all be in agony.

The issue has been source region. The pattern didn't yield much above normal in the summer, near normal and cool at times, but it doesn't do the same in the early Fall. You need to change the air mass and there isn't true cold Fall air to change it up, no matter the 500mb pattern. This has been a recurring theme for awhile, it's taking longer for the continent to cool because it's taking longer for the areas up north (Arctic and Canada) to cool. If the fridge is broke, there's no way to make cold air.

In the past for DFW (and many areas in NTX) 80F or higher monthly average in September was once or twice a decade, in the past ten years it has been the complete opposite with once or twice below 80F.

Between the ever-rapidly expanding DFW heat island and general climate change, love it or hate it, that's going to be the new norm. If that's going to be a dealbreaker, then I'd suggest one make long-term plans to relocate up north.

Aside from overall trends with averages, my real concern for future winters (as mentioned earlier) is that the cold outbreaks will continue to become increasingly more intense and longer-lasting when they do happen.

Polar jet breakups driving siberian air down to our latitudes (where, let's be honest, it is highly unusual) have become more common, if anything. And 99% of the time, it's for naught because the air's way too dry/dense for meaningful snowfall.

That's much worse, IMO.

[Ntxw]

Isn’t this more or less an offseason death ridge? Temps are way above normal, very dry flash drought conditions, troughs can’t even get close enough to create some breezes and eventually the air quality goes to hell. If it was early August with this setup we’d all be in agony.

The issue has been source region. The pattern didn't yield much above normal in the summer, near normal and cool at times, but it doesn't do the same in the early Fall. You need to change the air mass and there isn't true cold Fall air to change it up, no matter the 500mb pattern. This has been a recurring theme for awhile, it's taking longer for the continent to cool because it's taking longer for the areas up north (Arctic and Canada) to cool. If the fridge is broke, there's no way to make cold air.

In the past for DFW (and many areas in NTX) 80F or higher monthly average in September was once or twice a decade, in the past ten years it has been the complete opposite with once or twice below 80F.

Between the ever-rapidly expanding DFW heat island and general climate change, love it or hate it, that's going to be the new norm. If that's going to be a dealbreaker, then I'd suggest one make long-term plans to relocate up north.

Aside from overall trends with averages, my real concern for future winters (as mentioned earlier) is that the cold outbreaks will continue to become increasingly more intense and longer-lasting when they do happen.

Polar jet breakups driving siberian air down to our latitudes (where, let's be honest, it is highly unusual) have become more common, if anything. And 99% of the time, it's for naught because the air's way too dry/dense for meaningful snowfall.

That's much worse, IMO.

Indeed there is truth to this. 500mb reanalysis does show that upper atmosphere warmth (500mb) ridges are intensifying especially in the Northeast Pacific region. This has led to shorter, but sharp cold snaps, and once the cold is displaced...warmth quickly recovers due to the broader warm layer. Compared to prior periods where lower pressures were more prevalent.

[Stratton23]

PNA looks to be strongly negative the next 2-3 weeks, SE US and texas look like an absolute blow torch, no chances for rain in sight either, ill seee yall in the winter when hopefully the weather will be less depressing that what is being currently shown in the models, which is a whole lot of nothing burger

[rwfromkansas]

GFS run to the end shows a great trough over CA and we bake. Kind of the opposite of the good pattern earlier. Frankly, it's a little concerning if you buy the idea of a cycling pattern that starts with the start of fall. POW needs to quit running with individual runs showing a front. There is no front.

[TomballEd]

Isn’t this more or less an offseason death ridge? Temps are way above normal, very dry flash drought conditions, troughs can’t even get close enough to create some breezes and eventually the air quality goes to hell. If it was early August with this setup we’d all be in agony.

The issue has been source region. The pattern didn't yield much above normal in the summer, near normal and cool at times, but it doesn't do the same in the early Fall. You need to change the air mass and there isn't true cold Fall air to change it up, no matter the 500mb pattern. This has been a recurring theme for awhile, it's taking longer for the continent to cool because it's taking longer for the areas up north (Arctic and Canada) to cool. If the fridge is broke, there's no way to make cold air.

In the past for DFW (and many areas in NTX) 80F or higher monthly average in September was once or twice a decade, in the past ten years it has been the complete opposite with once or twice below 80F.

Between the ever-rapidly expanding DFW heat island and general climate change, love it or hate it, that's going to be the new norm. If that's going to be a dealbreaker, then I'd suggest one make long-term plans to relocate up north.

Aside from overall trends with averages, my real concern for future winters (as mentioned earlier) is that the cold outbreaks will continue to become increasingly more intense and longer-lasting when they do happen.

Polar jet breakups driving siberian air down to our latitudes (where, let's be honest, it is highly unusual) have become more common, if anything. And 99% of the time, it's for naught because the air's way too dry/dense for meaningful snowfall.

That's much worse, IMO.

1980 style freezes were decades apart, Houston has had 3 hard freezes (sub 20F) in 4 years. North Texas had at least some late summer rain. Not so much IMBY. They might be fires soon if it stays this warm and dry for long.

I think most of the hard freezes happen in cool ENSO years but I haven't looked into it enough.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

PNA looks to be strongly negative the next 2-3 weeks, SE US and texas look like an absolute blow torch, no chances for rain in sight either, ill seee yall in the winter when hopefully the weather will be less depressing that what is being currently shown in the models, which is a whole lot of nothing burger

If the Aleutian ridge is poleward, we will have our cold shots, but if it ends up flat, then we will be warm. The pacific is definitely the most important for cold weather if it's favorable for it!

[mmmmsnouts]

Between the ever-rapidly expanding DFW heat island and general climate change, love it or hate it, that's going to be the new norm. If that's going to be a dealbreaker, then I'd suggest one make long-term plans to relocate up north.

Way ahead of you. I grew up in Florida so heat isn’t a problem, but these long runs of dry, stagnant air are really messing with my family’s health. Not to mention, there are bound to be serious water problems as people keep piling into this part of Texas.

[Brent]

I was gonna say the GFS was crazy but the Euro is even worse and has a huge dry slot over us

I mean the NWS does have temps closer to average by Wednesday but yikes... Still gonna be on the warmer side if it stays sunny no matter what

[Stratton23]

GFS shows a more true taste of fall like air for the central and eastern US inside of 10 days lol, im just grasping at straws now, any sort of cool down inside of 240 hours on models just gets me excited even if it doesnt happen lol

[cstrunk]

At least we're losing daylight hours... and temperatures should slowly continue to trend downwards, even if above normal. Glad this didn't happen during summer.

[Ntxw]

This most definitely won't be happening but it is a reminder we are entering that kind of season, despite what it feels like out there. It will change...eventually.

Even if just eye candy fantasy.






It WILL eventually cool down in Canada though, that much we can bet on. Euro does show by mid month, friends in the north will get more consistent freezes.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw need a + TNH to develop, as from my understanding that helps with cold air building in canada, also need to hope the warm blob off the alaskan coast doesnt go away either

[Ntxw]

Yeah Stratton the Pacific theater is typically the key player whether cold can occur. Despite the warmth on our continent, it has been quite cold and below normal in central and eastern Siberia. Once we can get a favorable set up, there will be cold there to tap into.

[Brent]

Wow even 14 inches above normal on rainfall this year... The drought is coming back

That's worse than the heat

[WeatherP1]

Speaking of warm, I’m in east Dallas and still have firefly’s in my backyard. In October…… hope this is not a portent of our winter!

[Quixotic]

Speaking of warm, I’m in east Dallas and still have firefly’s in my backyard. In October…… hope this is not a portent of our winter!

I love fireflies. When I lived in Plano, there was a jogging trail amongst the apartments. I ran after the sun went down. It was beautiful running into the woods and seeing all the trees lit up like Christmas trees. Should have gotten a picture.

[WeatherP1]

Speaking of warm, I’m in east Dallas and still have firefly’s in my backyard. In October…… hope this is not a portent of our winter!

I love fireflies. When I lived in Plano, there was a jogging trail amongst the apartments. I ran after the sun went down. It was beautiful running into the woods and seeing all the trees lit up like Christmas trees. Should have gotten a picture.

I’m on a creek down by WR Lake. June and July my backyard lights up with firefly’s. I quit pesticides 2years ago and there are so many pollinators now.