Texas Spring 2022

[vbhoutex]

From Jeff Lindner at Harris County Flood Control:

Strong late season cold front will move across TX on Friday.

Wind Advisory is in effect from noon Friday to noon Saturday for all counties.

Gale warnings and watches are up for the coastal waters and bays.

Cold arctic air mass is moving southward through the plains this morning and will enter into N TX today and then rush off the TX coast on Friday. Cold front is currently located from the southern TX panhandle into NC OK and will move southward toward DFW this evening and then enter SE TX around 600-900am on Friday, metro Houston 10am-noon and the coast noon-200pm. Frontal timing may speed up a bit as has been the case several times this winter. Moisture will begin to increase later this afternoon and into tonight as a surface warm front over the NW Gulf begins to lift northward toward the coast. This moisture will push inland overnight and expect areas of fog and drizzle to develop. An upper level system over the SW US will swing across TX on Friday and lift from this feature will help to produce scattered showers and a few thunderstorms along and ahead of the cold front on Friday.

Very strong cold air advection will onset Friday afternoon and evening driving temperatures from the 70’s ahead of the front into the 30’s by early evening. Pressure gradient will become increasing tight Friday afternoon and evening with very strong NNW/N flow over the region. 925mb winds of 50-55kts will mix down some of the momentum to the surface with sustained speeds of 25-35mph and frequent gusts of 40-45mph. Would not be surprised to see a few 50mph gusts near the coast and over the barrier islands Friday night as cold air advection is maximized. All outdoor objects should be secured properly for strong winds Friday afternoon and evening.

Temperatures will fall quickly Friday afternoon with most areas into the 40’s by sunset and then into the 30’s by mid evening. Freeze line will advance southward with strong cold air advection and likely reach a Victoria to Wharton to Cypress to Conroe to Livingston line by Saturday morning. This could progress a bit further southward than the current thinking given the intensity of the cold air advection and incoming cold air mass. This will be generally a light freeze, but for vegetation that has begun to break dormancy in the recent days, those buds could be damaged.

Gusty winds will continue into the first part of Saturday with frequent 20-25mph gusts weakening into 10-15mph Saturday afternoon and then clam Saturday evening with cold high pressure nearly overhead. Usually night two is the coldest night following such a frontal passage, but the position of the high pressure cell on Saturday night will begin to support southerly winds by early Sunday morning, so temperatures may not realize their maximum potential. Still think a light freeze for many areas away from the urban cores will be possible on Sunday morning.

After a couple of cold days, spring returns Sunday into next week with southerly flow bringing back warmth and eventually humidity to the region. At this time rain chances look low with any storm systems well off to our north.

[Iceresistance]

I'm under a WWA for 1-2 inches of snow & a Glaze of Ice

[Cerlin]

Pretty decent 12z model agreement on a broad swath of 1-3 inches for most of Oklahoma with the potential for a dusting over DFW. Except the HRRR…which is exceptionally dry and shows a decent amount of freezing rain comparatively. HRRR has done well this year IIRC so it’d odd seeing it go for a less popular situation.

[bubba hotep]

Denver with a record low and one of their all-time coldest March mornings. So it's not surprising to watch the HRRR speed the front up and adjust colder with each run.

[HockeyTx82]

Denver with a record low and one of their all-time coldest March mornings. So it's not surprising to watch the HRRR speed the front up and adjust colder with each run.

In turn less moisture or more impact with same moisture amount?

[rwfromkansas]

Slightly expanded WWA now west and southwest of DFW, but skipping the metro still.

[DallasAg]

Slightly expanded WWA now west and southwest of DFW, but skipping the metro still.

And added more counties E and NE of the metro as well.

Looking at the updated grids from FWD they're really coming down on the QPF. For Dallas Co they were showing 0.08"-0.14" on this morning's forecast. Now with the noon update it's 0.04". Yes, 0.04" of freezing rain can be problematic if it falls overnight. But with the higher sun angle and very marginal temps this looks like a snoozefest.

[CaptinCrunch]

My thinking is NWS FTW is siding with a warmer solution which means less freezing precip, but as we have seen from each of the past arctic fronts they come in colder and earlier than forecast. Will wait till I see the evening models, NAM was showing a further south track with the UL, if that verifies you will see the WWA expand south some.

[rwfromkansas]

The trend with the NAM has been for more over the past few runs, but more is still less than inch. But, will bear watching to see if it comes in slightly stronger or colder.

[aggiecutter]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
216 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>004-006-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-
108>112-125-126-137-138-110430-
/O.NEW.KSHV.WW.Y.0007.220311T1200Z-220312T0600Z/
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-McCurtain-
Red River-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-Upshur-Marion-
Gregg-Harrison-
Including the cities of De Queen, Nashville, Mineral Springs,
Dierks, Ashdown, Hope, Prescott, Texarkana, Stamps, Lewisville,
Bradley, Magnolia, El Dorado, Shreveport, Bossier City, Minden,
Springhill, Homer, Haynesville, Farmerville, Bernice, Idabel,
Broken Bow, Clarksville, Bogata, Mount Vernon, Mount Pleasant,
Pittsburg, Daingerfield, Lone Star, Naples, Omaha, Atlanta,
Linden, Hughes Springs, Queen City, Gilmer, Big Sandy, Jefferson,
Longview, and Marshall
216 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT
CST FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one
inch.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest Louisiana,
southeast Oklahoma, south central and southwest Arkansas and
northeast Texas.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Friday to midnight CST Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

[bubba hotep]

18z NAMs look decent for areas north of I20.

[rwfromkansas]

The NAM seems to have slightly less over DFW southwest, but otherwise fairly similar to 12.

[HockeyTx82]

18z NAMs look decent for areas north of I20.

Was that the same area that was 380 and north yesterday?

Moving South trend?

[Edwards Limestone]

Looks like another low QPF/wind event for south central TX. Went to play golf near Canyon Lake last weekend and the ground was dry as a bone. Reminded me of playing in west TX off hardpan.

We are heading for a brutal, 2011-esque summer I'm afraid- especially if the PDO stays strongly negative moving forward. We've been spoiled the last 6-7 years.

[Haris]

18z NAMs look decent for areas north of I20.

18z RGEM is pretty similar for those areas. Not a very high ceiling but could mean the difference between a 1/4” of sleet and a half inch of snow vs nothing

[CaptinCrunch]

Plotting the Cold Front (Amarillo 26) it is coming through Vernon TX (47) and stretches up through OKC (38) and as far south as Guthire TX (35) down to Post TX (33) so it should be into the DFW area by 10pm.
That 35 FTW/38 DAL high for Friday I think is little to wishful IMO.

[txtwister78]

I think at this point the RAP and HRRR are the models to watch and so far both are showing very little in the way of precip (RAP has definitely backed off from earlier runs). Just not in the cards for much of anything. Maybe a few pockets of sleet and some flurries across DFW but I wouldn't expect a WWA out of it unless something changes quickly with the trough orientation....better odds far NE TX.

[bubba hotep]

Looks like most of DFW is going to bust low by 2-3 degrees on high temps today.

[bubba hotep]

I think at this point the RAP and HRRR are the models to watch and so far both are showing very little in the way of precip (RAP has definitely backed off from earlier runs). Just not in the cards for much of anything. Maybe a few pockets of sleet and some flurries across DFW but I wouldn't expect a WWA out of it unless something changes quickly with the trough orientation....better odds far NE TX.

Blending 15z SREF and 18z HRRR gives you pretty widespread coverage of 0.25-0.30" QPF across DFW with the higher amounts NE. That is plenty of qpf for a nice little snow event but is worthless when it comes to sleet.

[txtwister78]

I think at this point the RAP and HRRR are the models to watch and so far both are showing very little in the way of precip (RAP has definitely backed off from earlier runs). Just not in the cards for much of anything. Maybe a few pockets of sleet and some flurries across DFW but I wouldn't expect a WWA out of it unless something changes quickly with the trough orientation....better odds far NE TX.

Blending 15z SREF and 18z HRRR gives you pretty widespread coverage of 0.25-0.30" QPF across DFW with the higher amounts NE. That is plenty of qpf for a nice little snow event but is worthless when it comes to sleet.

True if taking SREF into account, but that's a very small window of opportunity for snow (maybe an hour) and most of that precip falls as either rain (early on initially) light frz rain/drizzle and some sleet. Didn't look at SREF until you mentioned it, but not exactly my favorite for reliable precip output (prone to a high run to run variability imo)