Texas Spring 2019

[Brent]

plenty of rain on the Euro for most... oh and a freeze at the end of the run for DFW... March 17th

[bubba hotep]

I like how Collin County has become ground zero for large hail the past 3 or so years. Not!

[Haris]

Does anyone know why the GFS is showing less rain despite a deeper closer trough

[cheezyWXguy]

Does anyone know why the GFS is showing less rain despite a deeper closer trough

I'm not sure, especially since the trough is not only slightly deeper, but slower and more negatively tilted, which should allow for better moisture transport. The thing that most surprises me though, is how dramatically the GFS has slowed the timing on the system, now bringing the main line through after 12z on Wednesday, which is even later than the Euro. Yesterday's 12z had the line moving through just after 0z Wednesday. At this rate slowing, Wednesday could be a second day of severe weather, separate from any severe weather in west TX on Tuesday. Personally I doubt it and will follow the Euro which has been much more consistent on timing, bringing the main line through DFW between 1-4am CDT.

[Ntxw]

Does anyone know why the GFS is showing less rain despite a deeper closer trough

Surface low is very tight and strong. Some of us may be looking in the wrong place. There may be a warm front in Okla/Kansas/Missouri intersection where surprise action may happen. Down here I'm still thinking a consolidation of MCS that is relatively fast moving and junkvection beforehand. While it is negative tilt, it's not a terribly favorable jet streak for us. Too meridional flow vs better zonal flow?

In April or May this set up would be pretty good, but it's too early in March without a stout dryline, in my opinion.

[Haris]

Does anyone know why the GFS is showing less rain despite a deeper closer trough

Surface low is very tight and strong. Some of us may be looking in the wrong place. There may be a warm front in Okla/Kansas/Missouri intersection where surprise action may happen. Down here I'm still thinking a consolidation of MCS that is relatively fast moving and junkvection beforehand. While it is negative tilt, it's not a terribly favorable jet streak for us. Too meridional flow vs better zonal flow?

In April or May this set up would be pretty good, but it's too early in March without a stout dryline, in my opinion.

Thanks for the input. My goal is to get a good soaking 1-2” of rain. That better happen since the week after is looking completely dry.

[Cpv17]

Does anyone know why the GFS is showing less rain despite a deeper closer trough

Surface low is very tight and strong. Some of us may be looking in the wrong place. There may be a warm front in Okla/Kansas/Missouri intersection where surprise action may happen. Down here I'm still thinking a consolidation of MCS that is relatively fast moving and junkvection beforehand. While it is negative tilt, it's not a terribly favorable jet streak for us. Too meridional flow vs better zonal flow?

In April or May this set up would be pretty good, but it's too early in March without a stout dryline, in my opinion.

Thanks for the input. My goal is to get a good soaking 1-2” of rain. That better happen since the week after is looking completely dry.

By looking at the 12z GFS, you’d be lucky to even get 1” next week. Maybe later in the month we can get into a wet pattern. Right now, not looking too good for rain for most of us in Texas.

[Haris]

Surface low is very tight and strong. Some of us may be looking in the wrong place. There may be a warm front in Okla/Kansas/Missouri intersection where surprise action may happen. Down here I'm still thinking a consolidation of MCS that is relatively fast moving and junkvection beforehand. While it is negative tilt, it's not a terribly favorable jet streak for us. Too meridional flow vs better zonal flow?

In April or May this set up would be pretty good, but it's too early in March without a stout dryline, in my opinion.

Thanks for the input. My goal is to get a good soaking 1-2” of rain. That better happen since the week after is looking completely dry.

By looking at the 12z GFS, you’d be lucky to even get 1” next week. Maybe later in the month we can get into a wet pattern. Right now, not looking too good for rain for most of us in Texas.

Well, I'd respectfully disagree. The latest euro and canadian continue to show fairly substantial rains for Texas. While the GFS was not good, it's been inconsistent and the solution does not make great sense to me. IMO.

[Cpv17]

Thanks for the input. My goal is to get a good soaking 1-2” of rain. That better happen since the week after is looking completely dry.

By looking at the 12z GFS, you’d be lucky to even get 1” next week. Maybe later in the month we can get into a wet pattern. Right now, not looking too good for rain for most of us in Texas.

Well, I'd respectfully disagree. The latest euro and canadian continue to show fairly substantial rains for Texas. While the GFS was not good, it's been inconsistent and the solution does not make great sense to me. IMO.

Yeah. Let’s hope the GFS is wrong.

[wxman57]

GFS is predicting 1-2" across the D-FW Metroplex through noon Wednesday, the Euro is predicting 2-3" there. I notice that the GFS has been trending slower and slower with next week's cold front. Y'all can have all the rain. My yard hasn't been dry since sometime in October. We had 20 rain days last November and 18, I think, in January. Only saw the sun twice in February.

[Cpv17]

GFS is predicting 1-2" across the D-FW Metroplex through noon Wednesday, the Euro is predicting 2-3" there. I notice that the GFS has been trending slower and slower with next week's cold front. Y'all can have all the rain. My yard hasn't been dry since sometime in October. We had 20 rain days last November and 18, I think, in January. Only saw the sun twice in February.

And it doesn’t really look like we’ll be seeing much sun in southeast Texas anytime soon either.

[cheezyWXguy]

12z Euro has a pretty high coverage of hailers moving across DFW around 3am. Forecast CAPE around or above 2000j/kg make this outcome sound reasonable

[Cpv17]

12z Euro has a pretty high coverage of hailers moving across DFW around 3am. Forecast CAPE around or above 2000j/kg make this outcome sound reasonable

You guys up there are gonna get some action within the next few days. Looks almost certain at this point. Y’all deserve it though so enjoy it guys!

[weatherdude1108]

EWX discussion:

867
FXUS64 KEWX 082048
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
248 PM CST Fri Mar 8 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
A warm, moist southerly low level flow is ongoing this afternoon
across South Central Texas. Low level stratus will re-develop later
this evening. A shortwave will eject out of the Southern Rockies and
into the Southern Plains overnight. The strongest forcing will pass
north of the CWA, however the tail end of the ascent will clip the
northern CWA overnight and Saturday morning. Forecast soundings are
robust with maintaining the cap over the region through most of the
overnight. Initially isolated showers should remain beneath the cap
with isolated thunder remaining elevated as the forcing approaches.
As the front approaches early Saturday morning the cap does weaken,
however low level flow begins to veer more southwesterly. Any storms
that do develop across the northern CWA overnight and Saturday
morning will have plenty of elevated CAPE to work with given steep
mid level lapse rates, and combined with modest deep layer shear
could result in a few stronger storms to perhaps an isolated severe
thunderstorm. This risk would be mainly near and north of a
Fredericksburg to Elgin line between 09Z-15Z.

Clearing will take place behind the front late Saturday morning.
Downslope, compressional flow and the Pacific nature of the front
will lead to warm afternoon temperatures, with highs forecast in the
low to mid 80s outside of the Hill Country, and mid and upper 70s
across the Hill Country.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Moisture will return back into the area with a warm front on Sunday.
A weak backdoor cold front is forecast to stay just north of the area
during the day on Sunday, but is indicated to slip into northern
areas of the CWA Sunday night and Monday. Chances for showers will
exist Sunday and Monday, with perhaps some isolated thunderstorms
Monday as a weak disturbance in the southwest flow aloft clips the
area.

South to southeast low level flow will strengthen late Monday night
into Tuesday in response to a digging and potent upstream system.
This upper level low is forecast to dig much further south than
tonight`s system, opening and moving across the area Tuesday night.
Ingredients are lining up for the potential for strong to severe
storms developing across the western CWA late Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Strong southerly H85 jet and 50-60kts of mid level flow will
be in place along with a divergent upper level pattern. An
impressive 60-80kts of deep layer shear will be in place, and
combined with the steep mid level lapse rates and available
instability may allow for severe storms to develop across the western
CWA late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Initially the threat will be
large hail, however this are indications of a MCS developing
overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday morning through the Hill
Country and I-35 corridor, which could result in a damaging wind
threat. There are still many details to be worked out in the coming
days, but we will continue to advertise a severe weather threat
Tuesday night across the CWA in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. The
system will move quickly east of the area Wednesday morning, with
clearing and seasonal conditions Wednesday afternoon.

There are some discrepancies between the GFS and ECMWF with where
the associated cold front ends up during the day Wednesday and into
Wednesday night. The ECMWF washes the front out over the area and
generates QPF across the CWA Thursday and Thursday night with the
next re-enforcing cold front. The GFS moves the front through the
area with dry conditions ahead of the re-enforcing cold front
Thursday and Thursday night. We will maintain a low 20 PoP for now
due to the uncertainty. Cooler conditions develop on Friday behind
the re-enforcing cold front.

[wxman57]

Looking more like the severe weather in the D-FW area may be during the day Wednesday rather than Tuesday afternoon/evening. Models have trended a good bit slower with the upper trof and front.

[Quixotic]

Out of all the threats, hail scares me the worst. The sound jackhammers on your house and car and not a thing you could do to stop it.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Out of all the threats, hail scares me the worst. The sound jackhammers on your house and car and not a thing you could do to stop it.

Reason number one that I’d be happy to never have another severe thunderstorm again. Bad hailstorms kill more livestock than anything else.

[Ntxw]

Out of all the threats, hail scares me the worst. The sound jackhammers on your house and car and not a thing you could do to stop it.

Reason number one that I’d be happy to never have another severe thunderstorm again. Bad hailstorms kill more livestock than anything else.

Collectively, especially in a metropolitan area they raise all of our insurance rates despite being effected or not. You go through it once, you will never want to experience big hail again. Nothing is fun about big bullets falling from the sky.

[Brent]

Out of all the threats, hail scares me the worst. The sound jackhammers on your house and car and not a thing you could do to stop it.

Reason number one that I’d be happy to never have another severe thunderstorm again. Bad hailstorms kill more livestock than anything else.

Collectively, especially in a metropolitan area they raise all of our insurance rates despite being effected or not. You go through it once, you will never want to experience big hail again. Nothing is fun about big bullets falling from the sky.

Yeah i had my fill of hail in April 2016. First time i had ever seen hail like that and i dont care to again

Geez was that really 3 years ago soon Been over 3 years since the tornado too

[rwfromkansas]

Just woke up to hail but sounded much bigger than it was luckily since my parents are here.....who keep getting hit with baseball hail in Abilene so glad their cars aren’t going to be totaled again...

Thunder and rain is glorious though.