Texas Summer - 2013

[Rgv20]

The CMC still hinting about a possible TC in the Western Gulf in about 6 days, It looks like it develops from the Upper Level Low currently around 30-27N and 60W. Currently no other Global Model support this but something to keep an eye on none the less.

12zCMC Day 6


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[weatherdude1108]

The CMC still hinting about a possible TC in the Western Gulf in about 6 days, It looks like it develops from the Upper Level Low currently around 30-27N and 60W. Currently no other Global Model support this but something to keep an eye on none the less.

12zCMC Day 6


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That would be SWEET!

[Ntxw]

Today's guidance continues the idea. 2-3 inches of rain along the Red River valley and in West Texas. 1-3 in Central and South Texas. May even see highs struggle above 80 for a day next week with extensive cloud cover and rains verify. Very good synoptic pattern for a wet Texas with the Appalachian high.

[Ntxw]

Well now it looks like a long duration rain event, possibly flooding. Slow moving low is going to set up potential 'rain bomb'. That's when heavy rain sits and dumps over an area overnight and 4-6 inches+ can fall. Euro shows 3+ for DFW, Abilene, Red River counties onwards towards San Angelo. All models have gone up up on precip as well as HPC. It's not a TC but it's going to rain like one especially northern and western TX.

Highs in DFW will struggle to get above the 80s for many days, Austin should be hard pressed over 90. Someone pinch me.

[Red Seal]

"Rain Bomb"
I love it! We sure need it

[Portastorm]

Well now it looks like a long duration rain event, possibly flooding. Slow moving low is going to set up potential 'rain bomb'. That's when heavy rain sits and dumps over an area overnight and 4-6 inches+ can fall. Euro shows 3+ for DFW, Abilene, Red River counties onwards towards San Angelo. All models have gone up up on precip as well as HPC. It's not a TC but it's going to rain like one especially northern and western TX.

Highs in DFW will struggle to get above the 80s for many days, Austin should be hard pressed over 90. Someone pinch me.

You know, I want to believe ... I see the 60/70% pops in the Austin forecast ... I see the model depictions ... but ...

[Ntxw]

You know, I want to believe ... I see the 60/70% pops in the Austin forecast ... I see the model depictions ... but ...

Austin has more bust potential than further north or west. NAM and Euro both develop a wall to wall rain shield moving slowly SW from I-20ish to Oklahoma. This is the region for the very heavy rainfall. Further south it's scattered and not the shield like further north but they still do give a good 1-2 inches. Keep your fingers crossed! At least the upstream runoff should eventually make it down to Lake Travis and co, in theory.

[weatherdude1108]

You know, I want to believe ... I see the 60/70% pops in the Austin forecast ... I see the model depictions ... but ...

Austin has more bust potential than further north or west. NAM and Euro both develop a wall to wall rain shield moving slowly SW from I-20ish to Oklahoma. This is the region for the very heavy rainfall. Further south it's scattered and not the shield like further north but they still do give a good 1-2 inches. Keep your fingers crossed! At least the upstream runoff should eventually make it down to Lake Travis and co, in theory.

I'm sooooooo tired of busts!!! We need about 5 inches before it starts to run off.

[Ntxw]

I'm no met and trust the ideas of FW, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some flash flood watches/flood watches go up for areas along or near I-20 soon to the Red River. The Euro and NAM Hi Res really goes bonkers for the metroplex on west for rain to just sit, spin, and pour underneath the low Sunday night into Monday and Monday night. If there is a surface reflection, it could be some crazy rainfall rates.





Streamer showers popping up in eastern Oklahoma now, this area is going to explode tomorrow and head south.

[Ntxw]

Starting to rain here at the north Texas branch of the PWC. FW did put flash flood watches west of I-35. I would've added another few counties to the east, don't buy the GFS qpf output to the west as much.

Steady to heavy rain is going to keep mid afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s at best and the euro has DFW spending much of the day tomorrow in the upper 60s under heavy rain, can you believe it?

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Hope to see lots of storm pics from down there!

Dust off your cameras boys!

[Red Seal]

Praise the Heavens!
It's a beautiful WET day in DFW

[Portastorm]

I know the general direction of the upper low is to the west-southwest, but it is interesting to see that the plume of rain is heading south-southeast at the midday hour and targeting the I-35 corridor and points east of there. Anyhoo, it does look like this rain event is going to verify. An outflow boundary is currently moving through Austin but I'm eagerly awaiting the next thing ... the rain!

[northtxboy]

My house has been 15 to 20 miles east of rain all day so far. Not ome drop has yet to fall in the town of windom.

[somethingfunny]

Only drizzle and light rain so far today but it is SEVENTY-THREE DEGREES ON JULY 14TH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Ntxw]

I think the rain will get heavier during the overnight hours especially in Central/North Texas. Nocturnal low level jet and flow will go more southerly and things get more convective as we move into the eastern flank of the low, that's usually when the 'rain bombs' happen if one were to occur in a localized area. SE Texas has potential too from gulf flow, harder to predict down that way. Could repeat the cycle again tomorrow albeit a little further west due to the low movement.



Low is spinning in Oklahoma moving WSW.

[gboudx]

My house has been 15 to 20 miles east of rain all day so far. Not ome drop has yet to fall in the town of windom.

If weatherbug radar is correct, ur luck appears to have changed.

We got < 0.10" here so far.

[Red Seal]

Yes the low is filling in now

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion....Looking wetter for the work week!

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE UPCOMING WEEK CONTINUES
TO LOOK WETTER AND POTENTIALLY COOLER WITH EACH MODEL RUN. MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH TAKING THE UPPER LOW WESTWARD TO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY AND WEST OF EL PASO BY WED. THIS
WILL LEAVE THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE DOOR OPEN FOR ALL OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH A CONTINUOUS MID LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO
PERSIST IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO ALLOWING SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE OVER THE RGV AND SOUTH TEXAS. THE ETA IS
PARTICULARLY BOLD IN BRINGING A WEAK DISTURBANCE INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS INLAND AREAS WILL BE DURING
THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN DAYTIME HEATING WILL MAKE THE
ATMOSPHERE MORE UNSTABLE. BY THE WEEKEND...THE RETROGRADING UPPER
LOW WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
OUR DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOW WILL CONTINUE...ALONG WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT PROBABLY MORE CLOSELY TIED TO
THE DAILY SEABREEZE FRONT AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS. POPS WERE TWEAKED.
RAISED POPS ON WED AND THU AFTERNOONS...AND ADJUSTED POPS OVER THE
WEEKEND TO BETTER REFLECT SEABREEZE EFFECTS AND TIMING.

WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...MOSTLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS...AND
SCATTERED RAIN EXPECTED...MAX TEMPS WERE LOWERED A BIT MORE TODAY.
SORT OF SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE WARMER GFS TEMPS AND THE
COOLER EURO TEMPS.

[northtxboy]

My house has been 15 to 20 miles east of rain all day so far. Not ome drop has yet to fall in the town of windom.

If weatherbug radar is correct, ur luck appears to have changed.

We got < 0.10" here so far.

Sure has!!!!!